I’ve been saying repeatedly, a nuclear Iran is inevitable and neither increased engagement nor sanctions nor outright invasion or attack will prevent it.
The brain trust at LoG are in agreement:
My friends, the Iranians are going to get a nuclear weapon. Either that or they will reach a state like Canada and Japan where they have acquired de facto nuclear deterrence without actually building the bomb. They just have to turn on the ol’ uranium coffee pot one morning and hit brew.
And of course the conservative partisans will reflexively blame Obama, but our present tension with Iran dates to the “axis of evil” rhetoric used by the Bush Administration, which threw in the garbage a truly promising opportunity for common ground after 9-11. There’s also the matter of our “special relationship” with Israel. If I were Iran, and were being called “evil” by the world’s sole superpower and “amalek” by its nuclear-armed proxy state next door, I’d want nukes too. And Iran is one of the few countries with the scientific and engineering depth to do it.
Meanwhile, NIAC points out the obvious – that the Ahmadinejad regime would be thrilled if Israel were to attack:
If an attack were to occur, it would do little to actually end the nuclear program in Iran. Rather, it would almost guarantee the end of a legitimate opposition movement inside Iran.
Continuing the nuclear program. Crushing the Green Movement. And being able to play the victim on a global stage? That’s a dream come true for Ahmadinejad.
I don’t think the Iranians are faking nuclear ambition (though they are denying it), but there’s plenty of icing on that cake for the mullahs. If anything, it might even accelerate the Iranian nuke rather than delay it.
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