Aziz Poonawalla: October 2008 Archives

Chris Bowers at Open Left does the math, and finds that Obama has already won. His reasoning:

1. In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to 273 electoral votes.
2. Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.
3. This means that in order to win the election, all Obama has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source). In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already almost over, not just beginning.
   
4. In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in. According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state, Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP). Even in the best case scenario for McCain .. he still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out the state.
   
5. A new poll from PPP in New Mexico indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the remaining voters by 35.7%.

So, unless one of the following occurs:

• Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state
  
• McCain wins the minority of remaining voters in either Colorado or New Mexico by at least 20%

Then the election is over and Obama has won no matter what happens anywhere else.

It should be noted that we knew pretty much as far back as March that Obama had won the primary, based on the same kind of mathematic analysis. Bowers' analysis is also corroborated by Nate Silver's latest projections, which give Obama a 96.3% probability of winning, with 338-378 electoral votes:


It's over, folks. Time to start planning for the transition... oh wait, Obama has that covered.

UPDATE: My purpose here is to emphasize that there's a certain point at which the cold equations of mathematics take over. This election is governed by specific rules, and polls are scientific and statistically significant samples of popular opinion. The entire system, unlike the stock market or the weather, is fundamentally deterministic. The importance of early voting here cannot be overstated, either, providing a much-needed buffer against all the attempts at voter suppression that are sure to occur, not to mention minimizing the inevitable voting logistical snafus. Thanks to Obama's strategic emphasis on early voting, these kinds of derailing forces are largely neutralized. As a result, the election is much more predictable according to the data. The math wins.

Earlier this year, a number of muslim bloggers including myself came together to found Talk Islam, a group blog project that is rapidly becoming the central nexus of the Islamic blogsphere. Over two dozen of the best-known muslim bloggers, writers, and essayists contribute to the blog, so there's always something new going on. The site is expressly intended for muslim bloggers to promote their own content at their own blogs, as well as share links and have discussions. You can even follow Talk Islam on Twitter: @talkislam. If you want to know what muslim bloggers are talking about, then Talk Islam should be your first stop. Stop by and take a look!

via Muslim Matters:

Join us in a live debate featuring Obama supporter Zeba Khan, Founder and Director of Muslims for Obama, and McCain supporter, Mohamed Elibiary, President and Chief Executive of the Freedom and Justice Foundation, a non-partisan think tank in Dallas, and one of MM's specialist.

When?

Thursday, Oct 30th 2008 @ 10 PM EST

How does it work?

The debate will take place on MuslimMatters.org. Format will be chat-box.

Can the audience ask questions?

You can ask questions by placing them as comments on this post (preferred) or e-mailing them to live@muslimmatters.org (deadline for questions: Oct. 29th midnight PST). Only topic-related "respectful" questions for Mohamed or Zeba or the moderator, or other comments about debate format, etc. are permitted in this post. Other tangents (such as permissibility of voting, personal attacks, the need for the debate itself, etc.) will be removed without notice. In other words, the comments are specifically to engage in the debate, not to question it. The best questions will be chosen at moderator's discretion to be asked of the debaters.

That should be really interesting!

I support Obama for President, and I believe that given the Republican Party's war on muslims in the public and political sphere (Mazen Asbahi, Rima Sinclair, now Rashid Khalidi just the latest examples), his Presidency will do much to mitigate the tide of Islamophobia washing our political shores. But Obama is still a failure for not facing the muslim smear head-on, with the same political courage he demonstrated in the wake of the Reverend Wright affair and his now-historic speech on race. Did that speech erase racial prejudice? No, but it estalished the framework for a post-racial politics. If Obama had shown similar courage, and applied his considerable rhetorical and leadership skills, towards the muslim smear, he might have laid a smilar groundwork for a post-religious politics, which would not only beefit muslims but also Jews and other minorities, and increased America's leverage and moral leadership abroad as we seek to promote liberalism and human rights abroad, which is a fundamental strategic objective for own national security).

This failure of Obama to confront religious prejudice is directly responsible for the durability of the muslim smear: 23% of all Texans and 28% of Kentucky Republicans still believe Obama to be muslim (and higher percentages remain unsure if he is Christian or not). Nationwide, it's 12%, and more likely to sway Democrats against Obama than Republicans for obvious reasons.

Related: good summary and overview of Arab and muslim stereotypes and the complicity of our presidential candidates in perpetuating them, by Jack Shaheen.

I missed this as a live broadcast, but fortunately the Obama campaign just put the full video up on YouTube. Here it is:

Hey, this is good stuff from Palin:"In the worst cases, some of the world's most oil-rich nations are also the most oppressive societies. And whether we like it or not, the money we pay for their oil only makes them...

Richard Silverstein has posted a review of the Islamophobic hate-film Obsession on his blog, written by David Shasha, one of the leaders of the American Sephardic Jewish community. It's a powerful indictment, beginning with a list of basic facts about...

I cast my vote for Barack Obama in Wisconsin today. I am excited and proud, not just because I support Obama, but because the very act of voting - for McCain, Obama, or anyone else - is a reminder of...

I've praised president Bush for emphasizing that the war on Terror should not be construed as a war against Islam, but the Republican Party has been enthusiastically waging a war against muslims.Even muslims who are members of the Republican Party...

I don't subscribe to the view that any invocation of Hitler in a debate is an automatic defeat (the so-called "Godwin's Law") but it is definitely true that equating various people to Hitler appears to be a national pastime in election silly...

There's a great anecdote by Joe Klein about Obama's meeting with General Petraeus in Iraq that I think speaks very well of Obama's judgement and leadership, especially with regard to military matters:Obama had a choice at that moment. He could...

I've previously addressed the "non-citizen smear", but as a public service here is a summary for the benefit of anyone who may still doubt the eligibility of Barack Obama for President according to the Constitution:the Obama campaign has already...

Anyone here have a Twitter account? I'm @azizhp - if you use twitter too, please do leave a comment with your username! I've actually been writing a lot about twitter over the past year or so. Here's a compilation of...

The story was sensational, and suspiciously stereotypical in invoking racial prejudices and conservative dogma about liberals' irrationality. Sure enough, it was also a hoax:Ashley Todd, of College Station, Texas, confessed to making up the story about an attacker scratching a...

I've long argued that no Democratic president will fully withdraw from Iraq. There's been plenty of evidence of Obama's intentions in that regard; the latest is this exchange from Joe Klein's recent interview with Obama:[Q] Lets go back to we're...

As many have heard by now, Obama is suspending his campaign for a couple of days to fly out to Hawai'i to visit his ailing grandmother. Normal human beings with compassion and love in their hearts would hear this news...

Over at Talk Islam there is a new feature called Listen Islam, which features podcasts between bloggers in the Islamsphere (and beyond) about various topics related to Islam. There are already two great podcasts posted, the first by myself and...

Republican pundits have been hating on Colin Powell, saying he endorsed Obama solely because of race, as well as impugning his service and his honor. But the really venomous reaction has been from the rank and file, flooding Powell's inbox....

Further to my earlier post about how Obama's $150 million September serves to utterly vindicate the vision of Joe Trippi and Howard Dean, comes this interesting observation by Al Girodano about the donor base:With an average contribution of $86 that...

I lauded the McCain campaign for the incident in Virginia where supporters of McCain and campaign representatives alike vigorously confronted an Islamophobic idiot and his sidekick and forced them to depart the rally. One of the McCain supporters, Daniel Zubairi,...

At a McCain rally in northern Virginia, a man was handing out bumper stickers equating Obama with Communism and radical Islam, and preaching about the dangers of Islam. McCain supporters, including a conservative Christian and several muslims, confront the bigot:Note...

This is simply beyond adjective and superlative and entering into utterly transcendent territory: Obama raised $150 million in September:Barack Obama raised more than $150 million in September, a stunning and unprecedented eruption of political giving that has given him a...

This is unusual, to say the least:A Seattle Episcopal priest who claims to be both Christian and Muslim has been restricted from public ministry and will be defrocked unless she "reclaims" Christianity by next April, the Episcopal Church announced....Redding, who...

I have been saying this as far back as February during the primaries - the correct response to the "Obama muslim" smear was not just to deny it, but also to ask, "so what?" Colin Powell rises to the occasion...

As I predicted yesterday, Colin Powell has endorsed Barack Obama for President. I think that Powell cuts right to the heart of the matter here:"We have two wars. We have economic problems. We have health problems. We have education problems....

Colin Powell is going to be on Meet The Press on Sunday morning, and speculation is rife that he will endorse Barack Obama:Retired Gen. Colin Powell, once considered a potential running mate for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), now may endorse...

This is pretty handy, in terms of cutting through the misinformation campaign by the McCain camp in trying to argue that Obama will raise taxes on the middle class: a tax cut calculator. According to our family data, we will...

The muslim world, especially the Middle East, is rightly chided for its lack of religious tolerance. One excellent barometer of tolerance is whether minority religions are permitted to construct houses of worship. While some countries in the ME like Jordan...

Is the Obama campaign pursuing a Karl-Rove-inspired campaign strategy? This piece at the Christian Science Monitor argues yes, because Obama has opened campaign offices in Michigan college towns:What does an office in this extremely left-leaning college town - as well...

One of the foundation stones of Islamophobia in conservative circles is, somewhat paradoxically, a book about Japanese-American internment in World War II, by Michelle Malkin. You can read  excerpts from her book online at Google books. Her book is rife...

Every presidential candidate comes in for their share of partisan bile from their opponents' more rabid supporters. The generic term for this is X Derangement Syndrome (example, BDS for Bush, etc) and to some extent it is a manifestation of...

I am a liberal. That is to say, I believe that in addition to the tyranny of governments, there also the tyrannies of economics, of prejudice, and of religion. I believe that Liberalism is the route by which the...

Today is Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement for the Jewish people. Yom Kippur is a sacred day in many respects, and has great relevance for Islam - after all, it was the Prophet Moses AS who initiated the observance...

I confess that I wasn't really watching the debate because I had any interest in what McCain would say. I already know who I am voting for and I already know where McCain stands on all the issues, except for...

There's been a followup in the Dayton mosque incident, with the police now revealing that the can of pepper spray was found inside the mosque, not nearby:The can of pepper spray found four days after someone sprayed a 10-year-old girl...

Brian McLaren is a Christian pastor who approaches faith and politics from within the compassionate tradition of Christianity, focusing on the Prophet Jesus' AS example of charity and taking care of the poor, etc for his inspiration rather than judgment...

Just a reminder - the Nominations phase for the Brass Crescent Awards are now underway. Head over to brasscrescent.org to nominate your favorite blogs in any of the following categories:BEST BLOG: This category honors the most indispensable, Muslim-authored blog there...

I manually extracted Biden's and Palin's remarks at the debate from the transcript and fed them into Wordle to create these word clouds. First, Senator Joe Biden:And then, Governor Sarah Palin:It seems the primary topic of the evening was John...

Overall, I think that Biden and Palin did well. Biden met expdectations, and Palin exceeded them. However, neither one really did much to change the overall narrative, which has been trending in Obama's favor. Palin's basic objective was to avoid...

I've written a statement about my support for free speech, for reference. I will update it over time but I welcome feedback....

in partnership with Shahed Amanullah of altmuslim.com, I am pleased to announce that the 5th Annual Brass Crescent Awards are now underway!What are the Brass Crescent Awards? They are named for the Story of the City of Brass in the...

Via the On Faith blog at the Washington Post, behold the Empire State Building lit green for Eid last night: Daisy Khan, executive of the ASMA foundation, writes movingly of what seeing the emblematic skyscraper lit in commemoration of the holiday...

The case of the attack on the Dayton, OH mosque just became murkier - police have thus far found no physical evidence of the chemical irritant:The girl was watching children whose parents and relatives had gathered at the Islamic Society...