Recently in Shi'a Crescent Category

Take this with a heavy dose of salt, as it may more reflect wishful thinking on the part of the American Enterprise Institute (which is neocon central), but there are supposedly rumors in Tehran that Khamenei has died:

Rumors that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has died began circulating yesterday in Tehran's bazaar. Today, Iranian bloggers report an "abnormal atmosphere in the city" and increased presence of plainclothes agents in the capital.

(...) The passing of Khamenei would represent a seismic shift in the Islamic Republic's power equations. With no successor-designate, Khamenei's death would unleash a huge power struggle.

Several things will happen once Khamenei dies. Officially, the Assembly of Experts, currently headed by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, anoints the next Supreme Leader. Behind the scenes, however, the major power brokers-whether on the assembly or not-will jockey for power and seek consensus. If the decision is fractious, the assembly may decide to appoint a clerical council in the interregnum period.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) will seek to influence the selection, either of the interregnum council or of the next Supreme Leader. The most radical scenario-but an increasingly plausible one-would be for the IRGC to lobby to abolish the institution of leadership, thereby transforming the Islamic Republic into a presidential system and giving ultimate power to current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a veteran of the IRGC and its primary benefactor.

I think that this analysis (by stalwart neocons at the AEI) discounts Rafsanjani a bit too easily. Power centralizing in Ahmadinejad's hands would be a wet dream of sorts for those who insist on cataclysmic confrontation with Iran; they prefer the simplistic view of Iran's internal politics, rather than the complicated picture that emerged during the post-election protests. It's extremely unlikely that the IRGC would not want at least some clerical figleaf for their puppet; if the Supreme Leader title ceases to exist, so too does the Islamic Republic itself, as far as ideology goes. If it's Ahmadinejad in power, then Iran might as well be... Egypt.

I'd scan the Iranian tweets to see what they make of this, but Twitter is down as of this post. Maybe the rumors are true and the twitterverse just imploded as the entirety of Iran came online to exult. But I doubt it. Or it could just be wishful thinking/rumor mongering by Michael "faster, please" Ledeen, citing "excellent sources."

UPDATE: twitter is back; here's the real-time search results for "Khamenei". Rumors are thick, with Khamenei reputed to be in a coma or dead. Among the memes taking shape, is the suggestion that Khamenei has been "disposed of". Oh, boy.

UPDATE 2: Rumors say that there will be an official announcement on Iranian state television in the morning (which is actually pretty soon - I'll stay up late as I can to monitor). Here's what Ledeen's source claims, though I find the reference to "gods" (plural) rather suspicious:

Yesterday afternoon at 2.15PM local time, Khamenei collapsed and
was taken to his special clinic. Nobody - except his son and the
doctors - has since been allowed to get near him.
His official, but secret, status is: "in the hands of the gods".

Reportedly this collapse is natural. Many would like him to move to his
afterlife but reportedly the collapse was not 'externally induced'
[no poisioning]. The few insiders who know about the collapse see
this development "as a gift from the gods".

His condition had already seriously deteriorated over the last
months, aggravated by his nervous condition due to [1] his
inability to solve the problems created by his manipulation of the
election results and the refusal of [a large part of] the
population to accept this, plus [2] his loss of religious authority
by means of the repeated condemnations of events by senior clerics

Reportedly the principal aims of Khamenei of the last couple of
weeks, if not months, were to ensure [1] a positive reputation as
his legacy and [2] the physical survival of his family members and
their wealth, reportedly now largely in Syria and in Turkey (remember the truck convoy of $8.5 billion in cash and gold that was seized by the Turks?).

Outlook is uncertain but speculation is - considering that he is in
coma since more than 24 hours - that he may not come out of his coma and/or that he may die very soon.

If he dies it is expected that immediately a bloody clash will
develop between the powers behind Rafsanjani, who will immediately
claim temporary religious authority and overall control, and the
powers behind Achmadinejad who will scramble in order to regain
control and ensure their survival.

I was forwarded the following general invitation from the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy, for an iftaar dinner featuring Professor Seyyed Hossein Nasr as the keynote speaker. Nasr is a true heavyweight scholar, originally from Iran, now teaching at Georgetown University. One of my favorite essays of his is online, entitled "Science and Civilization in Islam". Here are a list of other essays of Nasr's online. If you will bein the Alexandria, VA area on September 16th, then you should definitely make an effort to attend this iftaar! The registration form is also available online.

CSID Ramadan Iftaar Dinner The Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy (CSID) cordially invites you to our Annual Ramadan Iftaar Dinner: Before it's too late: Peace and Reconciliation between Shias and Sunnis What can American Muslims do to unite Muslims and bring peace and reconciliation among Sunnis and Shias? Keynote Speaker: Prof. Seyyed Hossein Nasr Professor Seyyed Hossein Nasr, one of the world's leading experts on Islamic science and spirituality, is University Professor of Islamic Studies at George Washington University. He is one of the most important and foremost scholars of Islamic, Religious and Comparative Studies in the world today. Author of over fifty books and five hundred articles which have been translated into several major Islamic, European and Asian languages, Professor Nasr is a well known and highly respected intellectual figure both in the West and the Islamic world. An eloquent speaker with a charismatic presence, Nasr is a much sought after speaker at academic conferences and seminars, university and public lectures and also radio and television programs in his area of expertise. Possessor of an impressive academic and intellectual record, his career as a teacher and scholar spans over four decades. Professor Nasr is the author of numerous books including Man and Nature: the Spiritual Crisis of Modern Man (Kazi Publications, 1998), Religion and the Order of Nature (Oxford, 1996) and Knowledge and the Sacred (SUNY, 1989). Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 6:30 PM - 9:30 PM Iftaar at 7:00 PM and Program starts at 8:00 PM at the Afghan Restaurant 2700 Jefferson Davis Hwy, Alexandria, VA - (703) 548-0022 You can purchase your ticket online, or fill out the form below and send it with your payment/check to: CSID, 1625 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 601, Washington DC, 20036, no later than Sept. 12, 2009. Ticket Reservation Form Name: __________________________________________ Institution: _______________________________________ Address: _________________________________________ City: ________________ State:________ Zip:__________ Tel: ____________________ e-mail:__________________ Please Reserve: Members Non-Members ____ Dinner Tickets x $40/person x $50/person = _______ ____ Dinner Tickets x$60/couple x $80/couple = _______ _____Reserved Table$500 for a table of 8 _______ _____Donation _______ Total: _______ Signed:__________________________________________ Dated:_________ Title:____________________________________________ Please forward this invitation to all your friends and colleagues who might be interested in this event. Seats are limited, so please reserve your ticket as early as possible. We look forward to seeing you next week. Sincerely; Radwan A. Masmoudi Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy

With all the attention paid to by the global muslim community towards Uyghurs, Iranians, Rohingya, and other oppressed yet largely unknown muslim minorities, it's easy to forget that there are examples much closer to the muslim mainstream, but which receive far less attention.

One example are the Baha'i in Iran, whose systematic oppression by the Iranian regime gets overlooked in the larger struggle for Iranian political freedom. An excellent website devoted to chronicling their plight is BahaiRights.org, along with @Kawdess and @MidEastYouth on Twitter. Human Rights Watch released a report back in May, calling upon Iran to free seven Baha'i community leaders who have been detained without trial for over a year. These leaders potentially face the death penalty for "spreading corruption on Earth".

Another example are the Shi'a community in Saudi Arabia. The Shi'a have struggled for years against systematic oppression by the Saudi government in virtually all public spheres; I blogged in much more detail about Saudi-Shi'a relations back in March. It's worth noting that Human Rights Watch has just issued a report on Saudi government relations with the Shi'a population, disccussing further clampdowns after a protest by Saudi Shi'a pilgrims at the site of Jannatul Baqi, the holy cemetery containing the gravesites of Fatima AS, the daughter of the Prophet SAW, and a number of early Imams revered by all Shi'a. Click here for the Table of Contents and links to download the full report in PDF format.

There's no irony in the fact that the Baha'i are oppressed by Shi'a and the Shi'a are oppressed by Sunnis. The sad truth is that oppression of religious minorities is endemic to muslim autocracies (well, to be fair, in autocracies in general). The pompous Organization of Islamic Countries concerns itself with issuing detailed repoorts about Islamophobia in Europe but turns a blind eye to the oppression within their own borders. There's no real solution here ("regime change" in Afghanistan and Iraq have arguably made the problem worse) apart from continuing to support organizations like HRW. HRW gets lambasted for "hating America" or being a "tool of the Saudis" or for being insufficiently pro-Israeli/pro-Palestinian (depending on who is complaining), but they do critical and thankless work that simply cannot be duplicated by anyone else.

Here's a running translation from another blogger of Rafsanjani's sermon, along with a compilation video of the reaction in Tehran:

The moazzen is saying the azan.

Rafsanjani just got introduced to the podium.

Sound of loud chants we can't make out.

Rafsanjani: Please sit down so we can make time for the speech.

Chants again. They're not letting him speak. I can only make out "leader" in their chants. (the blood in our veins is a gift to our leader)

13:20 Rafsanjani: We are approaching the anniversary of the Friday prayers and today's Friday prayer is in ways very similar to the first every prayers led by Ayatollah Taleqani. In hopes that we can use this prayer for the betterment of the future of our country and the goals of the revolution.

(Tehran radio is now cut off. The host just came on to announce that thousands of people are chanting Allah o Akbar in the streets. WTF?!)

13:23 Rafsanjani: I have a main part to my speech. It will be about the most critical aspects of Islam.

13:25 The second part of my speech will be about the goals of the revolution, the goals people have worked for and have given their blood for and the goals that our Imam [Khomeini] spent his entire life fighting for.

13:26The third part will be about current events and the conditions we are in today. I will try to draw out solutions the way I see them. Of course, these will be my personal opinion.

13:27 Rafsanjani is speaking of Mohammad, the prophet, and the early days of Islam. This will go on for the first part of his sermon.

13:34Rafsanjani is still speaking of Mohammad's early days as prophet and his attempts to establish rule in Medina.

13:36 He is reciting a sourahfrom the Koran and interpreting it.

13:41Rafsanjani is getting teary. "The prophet respected the rights of all those under his rule." He brings an example from the end of the prophet's life where the prophet comes to the people and asks that they come to him to let him know if he ever treated them unfairly.

13:44The prophet felt, during the last years of his life, that animosity was brewing amongst his people [he is crying now]. The prophet felt that his old friends are now enemies.

13:46The prophet went to Baghi [where his old friends were buried] and said to them: you are lucky that you are no longer here to see that your old brothers are killing and destroying one another.

--------

The first part of the speech is over. The second has begun.

--------

13:51He begins (as is the custom) by mentioning the upcoming religious dates of significance (e.g., the death of the seventh Shi'a Imam)

13: 52 May all the oppressors who make innocent people bleed be a witness to eternal condemnation

[the chants begin again]

13:53 I asked you, I pleaded for you to let me speak.

[more chants]

13:54 Rafsanjani condemns China. People chant "Death to China". He asks that people stop their chants.

13:55 Rafsanjani: China has a rational government. It must look at how it can benefit from its relations with the Islamic world. We hope that we will no longer be witness to such atrocities towards Muslims in China or anywhere else in the world.

13:55 But coming to our own problems. We started off very well in the race for the presidency. Everything went smoothly and fairly.

13:56People became very hopeful. Everything was set for a glorious day. This glory was due to the people. They were the ones who went to the ballot box. And we must be grateful to them.

13:57 I so very much wish that that path had been continued. But unfortunately, that was not the case. I will now elaborate. We must first see what we [probably the ruling establishment] were after. This is coming from a person who was always by the Imam[Khomeini's] side [he is referring to himself]. For 60 years. The Imam was always after the people. After getting their approval and their participation. This was the art of the Imam which made him so successful. It took the Imam less than 20 years to get the people to come to the streets.

13:58These people, the ones who were behind the Imam, broke the back of the Shah and brought him to his knees.

13:59 After the victory of the revolution too, we worked on a daily basis with the Imam. The Imam would always say that if the system is not backed by the people, nothing would stand.

14:00 The Imam would always quote the prophet [Muhammad] who would say to Ali [Mohammad's successor]: leave the people if they do not want you.

14:02 He is speaking of the Imam's command to Bazarganto form a temporary government. But the Imam tells him to keep it short to pave the way for the constitution.

[loud chants]

14:03 We agreed that you will stop chanting. If we do not have the votes of the people behind us, we will have nothing. The guardian council, the expediency council, EVERYONE gets their legitimacy from the vote of the people.

14:04 Without Islam, without a republic, we have nothing. Ali [Imam Ali, the prophet's successor] waited 19 years until the people came for him.

[more chants]

14:05 Stop chanting.

14:06 Why did the elections come to this? Before the election, near the end, some people had doubts about what was going to happen. Maybe because of the way the broadcasting corporation behaved.

14:07 Rafsanjani: Some are chanting and I can't make out what they say. But I am speaking what you want to hear. I want unity too.

14:08 I have always acted above and beyond party lines, and now too we must search for unity to find a way out of our quandary.

14:09 I have some suggestions. I have spoken to some members of the the expediency council and the assembly of experts about them too.[Signaling that he is the chief of the assembly of experts and the expediency council and he is speaking from that platform]

14:10 We must bring back the trust of the people. First of all, everyone must accept the law. The people, the parliament, everyone.

14:11 We must create a condition so that everyone can speak. We must speak logically. And a part of this responsibility is on the shoulders of the broadcasting corporation.

14:12 The guardian council did not make good use of the extra fives days given to them by the leader.

14:13We do not need people in prison for this. Let's allow them to return to their families.

[More chants of Allah o Akbar]

14:14 We must join with those who have incurred great loss and try to lesson their pain.

14:15 We must give freedom to the press within the confines of the law.

[not a word of the government]

14:15 We are all members of the same family. We must remain friends and allies. Why have we gone so far as to pain some of our marajeh [top religious leaders]?

14:16 I hope this sermon will pave a way out of this current situation. A situation that can be considered a crisis.

14:17 The sermon is finished.

14:18 Two chants can be heard:the blood in our veins is a gift to our leader and Hashemi, Hashemi, may god keep you safe

Another translation is here, for comparison. Complete video of the speech in Persian is here.

Reuters reports that Moussavi attended the sermons, and that there were protests at Tehran University by some of Moussavi's supporters that were met with violence. Also, see Nico for comprehensive links, reactions, and more video. Also, via NIAC, it seems that reformist candidate Karroubu was assaulted while attending one of the protests. They also have translations of the crowd's chanting and defiance.

Several thousand Iranians marched on Tehran University today in protest of the election, on the anniversary of a student protest in 1999:

The demonstration is taking place on the 10th anniversary of a student uprising that, at the time, posed the biggest threat to the Islamic regime since its inception in 1979.

The protesters are using the anniversary to resume demonstrations against the outcome of the June 12 presidential election.

An estimated 2,000 to 3,000 people crowded the streets and headed toward Tehran University, the site of the 1999 student uprising.

Several protesters were hit on the arms and backs by the Basij, the journalist reported. The militia tried to persuade one man, whose face was bleeding, to get into an ambulance, but he refused.

Some of the protesters shouted "Allah u Akbar," or "God is Great" and "Ya Hussein, Mir Hussein" referring to opposition candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi

The remarkable thing here is how the protest movement has embraced it's Islamic identity, contrary to the Western idea that democracy must be secular in nature. The chant of "Ya Hussein, Mir Hussein" is not just a reference to Moussavi but also to the martyred Imam Husain AS whose death in Karbala centuries ago forms the core of Shi'a spiritual identity. In addition, at night the chant of "Allahu Akhbar" rings out from the rooftops in many neighborhoods in Tehran - a simple chant and appeal to the highest power for succor, but also a rallying cry.

These are of course a grassroots expression and invocation of faith by the protest movement, but it's worth noting that the highest levels of clergy are also moving against the regime as well. Western pundits often lump Iran's government into one faceless mass, "the mullahs", but the actual clerical establishment in the city of Qom, and the Council of Experts (which has the power to remove the Supreme Leader Khamenei) are separate entities. The clerical establishment in Qom has become quite explicit in their critique of Ahmadinejad and Khamanei, seriously undermining the latters' claim to divine right to rule:

An important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country's supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country's clerical establishment.

[...] The clerics' statement chastised the leadership for failing to adequately study complaints of vote rigging and lashed out at the use of force in crushing huge public protests.

It even directly criticized the Guardian Council, the powerful group of clerics charged with certifying elections.

"Is it possible to consider the results of the election as legitimate by merely the validation of the Guardian Council?" the association said.

Perhaps more threatening to the supreme leader, the committee called on other clerics to join the fight against the government's refusal to adequately reconsider the charges of voter fraud. The committee invoked powerful imagery, comparing the 20 protesters killed during demonstrations with the martyrs who died in the early days of the revolution and the war with Iraq, asking other clerics to save what it called "the dignity that was earned with the blood of tens of thousands of martyrs."

A much more strident critique of Khamanei was also issued by a very conservative cleric, which lambasts the way in whihich the brutal crackdown has eroded the legitimacy of the clerical establishment:

"Khamenei, your recent actions and behavior has brought shame to us clerics. Our image in the streets and bazaars has been tarnished as everyone is placing us in the same category as Ahmadinejad."

"Khamenei, you are wrong, your actions are wrong. I believe in the velayat e fagih more than you."

"I'm not preaching these messages so that I could be associated with the West. I loathe the West and will fight to the last drop of my blood before I or my land succumbs to the West. On the contrary, I'm preaching these messages on the count that the respect for our profession is gone."

"Young people are not praying anymore, whose fault is that? It is your fault Mr. Khamenei, it's your fault for placing us in the same line as that lunatic Ahmadinejad."

"Ahmadinejad is nobody, you should congregate with us instead of him."

As noted, this rant is by Haddi Ghaffari, who is not reformist by any means - he played an instrumental role n the creation of Hezbollah.

All of this is likely the partial result of the involvement of former Iranian President, and billionaire, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is a political rival of Khamanei and who sits on the Council of Experts. Twenty years ago, Rafsanjani had proposed replacing the Supreme Leader position with a Council of Three, and it is probable that he is maneuvering towards the same outcome now. One anonymous Iranian journalist reports:

According to a well-placed source in the holy city of Qom, Rafsanjani is working furiously behind the scenes to call for an emergency meeting of the Khobregan, or Assembly of Experts-the elite all-cleric body that can unseat the Supreme Leader or dilute his prerogatives. The juridical case against Khamenei would involve several counts. First, he would be charged with countenancing a coup d'état-albeit a bloodless one-without consulting with the Khobregan. Second, he would stand accused of deceitfully plotting to oust Rafsanjani-who is the Khobregan chairman and nominally the country's third-most-important authority-from his positions of power. Third, he would be said to have threatened the very stability of the republic with his ambition and recklessness.

Reza Aslan also has written about Rafsanjani's efforts at wooing Qom:

Reliable sources in Iran are suggesting that a possible compromise to put an end to the violent uprising that has rocked Iran for the past two weeks may be in the works. I have previously reported that the second most powerful man in Iran, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly of Experts (the body with the power to choose and dismiss the supreme leader) is in the city of Qom-the country's religious center-trying to rally enough votes from his fellow assembly members to remove the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. News out of Iran suggests that he may be succeeding. At the very least, it seems he may have gained enough support from the clerical establishment to force a compromise from Khamenei, one that would entail a runoff election between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main reformist rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Even the political leadership is deeply divided over the political crackdown - Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, one of the leaders of the original Iranian revolution in 1979 and one-time designated successor to Ayatollah Khomenei before a falling out (thus making him another bitter rival to Ayatollah Khamanei, who became Supremem Leader instead of Montazeri), published a scathing letter denouncing the crackdown (PDF) and the tactics of using Basij thugs against the people:

Montazeri said "I have been involved in the struggles against the previous (Shah) regime and the establishment of the Islamic Republic...I feel ashamed in front of the people and clearly announce that beloved Islam...is different from the behavior of the current rulers. These actions and policies being done under the banner of religion will certainly cause large segments of people to become cynical regarding the principles of Islam and theocracy and will ruin the hard and valuable work of the Islamic ulema."

Montazeri harshly criticized the militarization of the society saying "In a country and a regime which is proud of being Islamic and Shiite, and only 30 years after the victory of the revolution when people still remember the last scenes of the past regime, how could they turn Tehran and other large cities into a big garrison while the world is watching? They have put our brothers in the armed forces against the people. By using plainclothes agents, who are reminders of baton-carrying agents of Shah, [they] cowardly shed the blood of the youth and men and women of this land."

Montazeri then [asked the] authorities..."was this the strategy of Prophet Mohammad and Imam Ali? They never cursed and accused their enemies and didn't silence them by the sword

The rhetoric here is, literally, revolutionary - comparing the regime to the Shah, and invoking the example of the Prophet and Imam Ali as a recrimination. This is the kind of thing that can't be unsaid - and Montazeri has done this before.

The key here is that the rhetoric of Islam is being merged with the rhetoric of reform. As Reihan Salaam optimistically speculated a few weeks ago, there's a real possibility - though no guarantee - that we might see a new Iranian Republic emerge which is a true synthesis of Islam and democracy. I actually speculated along much the same lines years ago, noting that the biggest threat to the present regime was indeed a mass nonviolent protest movement within the framework of Islam - and invoked verse 2:256 from the Qur'an. As far back as 2002, the blogsphere had an Open Letter to Iran which I also posted to my blog in both Farsi and English. The path that Iran is on right now is not conceptually new, just untried. It's about time.

Related: Paul Raushenbush comments over at Progressive Revival. Also, the National Iranian American Council has an indispensable blog for keeping up to date on these internal developments.