The 2008 presidential race
So, who's it going to be? My predictions:
Democrats: Hillary will have the organization, but she won't make it. For one thing, the Democrats aren't going to be foolish enough to nominate someone who can't win. Her negatives are very, very high, and she'll drive GOP turnout like nothing else. If Obama decides to run, he's the odds-on favorite. I think he will run, and I think he'll be nominated. He's the most electric politician in America today, and will be the media darling even more than McCain was in 2000. I think he'll be the nominee, and his running mate will be either Iowa governor Tom Vilsack or Democratic vice-presidential also-ran John Edwards, whose populist message will be much more appealing in 2008. I'm thinking that Edwards probably wouldn't relish being the No. 2 again, but his Washington experience and presidential campaign trail experience, would add gravitas to the ticket. So, my prediction: Obama-Edwards.
Republicans: It won't be McCain. I think he could win the general election, especially in a world in which Iraq and foreign affairs will be the most pressing issue. But he's got a couple of big problems: 1) in a time in which the public is clamoring for drawing down from Iraq, he wants to send more troops; and 2) the GOP nominating base doesn't like him. Unlike Democratic primary voters, Republicans tend to unify behind the candidate anointed by the party establishment. With George Allen's flameout, that candidate will be Mitt Romney. He's a solid, regular Republican acceptable to the religious conservative wing as well as the business wing. And as a state governor, he's got enough distance from the war for it not to be a liability (something that would doom a Condi Rice candidacy, assuming she wanted it). But who would be his running-mate? I say Rudy Giuliani. Though his dazzle has faded somewhat since 9/11, he's the closest thing the GOP has to a rock star, which'll be important if the Dems run Obama. And his social liberalism will have lots of crossover appeal, but won't turn off social conservatives, so long as Romney is at the top of the ticket. My prediction: Romney-Giuliani. (I think the fact that both Republicans are Northeasterns running as standard-bearers from a largely Southern party won't matter one bit.)
Obama-Edwards vs. Romney-Giuliani. What a hell of a campaign that would be!
Democrats: Hillary will have the organization, but she won't make it. For one thing, the Democrats aren't going to be foolish enough to nominate someone who can't win. Her negatives are very, very high, and she'll drive GOP turnout like nothing else. If Obama decides to run, he's the odds-on favorite. I think he will run, and I think he'll be nominated. He's the most electric politician in America today, and will be the media darling even more than McCain was in 2000. I think he'll be the nominee, and his running mate will be either Iowa governor Tom Vilsack or Democratic vice-presidential also-ran John Edwards, whose populist message will be much more appealing in 2008. I'm thinking that Edwards probably wouldn't relish being the No. 2 again, but his Washington experience and presidential campaign trail experience, would add gravitas to the ticket. So, my prediction: Obama-Edwards.
Republicans: It won't be McCain. I think he could win the general election, especially in a world in which Iraq and foreign affairs will be the most pressing issue. But he's got a couple of big problems: 1) in a time in which the public is clamoring for drawing down from Iraq, he wants to send more troops; and 2) the GOP nominating base doesn't like him. Unlike Democratic primary voters, Republicans tend to unify behind the candidate anointed by the party establishment. With George Allen's flameout, that candidate will be Mitt Romney. He's a solid, regular Republican acceptable to the religious conservative wing as well as the business wing. And as a state governor, he's got enough distance from the war for it not to be a liability (something that would doom a Condi Rice candidacy, assuming she wanted it). But who would be his running-mate? I say Rudy Giuliani. Though his dazzle has faded somewhat since 9/11, he's the closest thing the GOP has to a rock star, which'll be important if the Dems run Obama. And his social liberalism will have lots of crossover appeal, but won't turn off social conservatives, so long as Romney is at the top of the ticket. My prediction: Romney-Giuliani. (I think the fact that both Republicans are Northeasterns running as standard-bearers from a largely Southern party won't matter one bit.)
Obama-Edwards vs. Romney-Giuliani. What a hell of a campaign that would be!
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