Barone on populism

In cycle after cycle, we hear that certain forms of populism–full-throated
opposition to immigration and free trade–will sweep all before them. The 2006
results, at least as I see them now, provide less than full-throated support for
this proposition. Two of the loudest critics of illegal immigration–incumbent J.
D. Hayworth and open seat primary winner Randy Graf, both in Arizona, where
illegals have been famously streaming through the border–both evidently lost.
And in upstate New York, where National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds was in terrible trouble after the Mark Foley scandal broke, his Republican-turned-Democratic opponent Jack Davis also lost, in a region where
there had been a huge loss of manufacturing jobs. Nativism and protectionism are
political weapons that in a certain light look very strong, which seem to be
gleaming swords that will slay all before them. But, again and again, they crack
like glass in your hand. If nativism can't work on the Arizona border, and
protectionism can't work in upstate New York, where can they work?

Most of those who reclaimed Republican seats ran hard against free trade,
globalization, and any sort of moderate immigration policy. That these Democrats
won makes it likely that others will take up their reactionary call. Some of the
newcomers may even be foolish enough to try to govern on the basis of their
misguided theory.

There is an important distinction to be made between economic populism
and economic nationalism. Many of Tuesday's Democratic victors stressed familiar
populist themes: the little guy against the big guy; corporate misbehavior; and
tough times faced by working people. Al Gore ran in 2000 as an economic populist
and so, implausibly, did John Kerry in 2004. Raising the minimum wage (which
Republicans stupidly failed to do before the election) is a classic populist
position. Opposing Bush tax cuts for the wealthy is another. But in places where
Democrats made their most-impressive inroads this year, one heard a distinctly
different message of economic nationalism. Nationalism begins from the populist
premise that working people aren't doing so well. But instead of blaming the
rich at home, it focuses its energy on the poor abroad. The leading economic
nationalist today is probably Lou Dobbs, who on nights other than Election Night natters on against free trade, outsourcing, globalization, and immigration on CNN.