Brits to begin Iraq pullout
Tony Blair will reportedly announce in Commons tomorrow that his government will withdraw about half the British force in Iraq by Christmas. Then, no doubt, the Shia militias will turn on each other in the British-patrolled south. Anyway, there goes...
He's not dancing for joy, Mr. Burke. Dreher believes there's nothing we can do to make a passable Iraq. It would follow that we should pull out. Of course, had our military actually were the world's best, like everyone told us, we wouldn't have to pull out. Or discuss pulling out. Or discuss anything other than "play it safe or pound someone else?"
"had our military actually were the world's best" I meant "Had it been."
"Arleigh Burke" is Jonathan Carpenter, who has been banned. His posts are deleted as a matter of course.
The AP article on the same subject is pretty good. The troops are being withdrawn from Southern Iraq, which has not had the violence of Baghdad. We'll see if the Iraqis can't hold it together there.
It is time to redeploy.
New Orleans is not a foreign country. It's our own country. Its problems are our problems, like it or not. Not so Iraq.
We who remember Vietnam are experiencing a somewhat sickening sense of deja vu. It's not about the American army being "the best in the world." The American army was then and is now the best in the world. (If you don't think so, name someone better.) And it's not about our soldiers being something other than the best either. And right-wing laments to the contrary, then and now, it's not about how those whimpering liberals wouldn't let us use the overwhelming power we do have so that we could have had the victory. Not unless you think we should occupy the place virtually indefinitely, ruthlessly putting down all opposition. Loathe as some are to admit it, there are things that overwhelming foreign forces cannot do, without making commitments we are (rightly) unwilling to make. Could we simply have occupied all of Vietnam for 30 or 40 years? Bombed the whole of it back to the stone age? Probably. So also Iraq. But this requires behavior which is unacceptable to us, and also requires a generations-long commitment which we do not want to make. (The British were less squeamish, back in the day. Brutality didn't keep them awake at night, particularly, and they were prepared to stay in, say, India, virtually forever. But then, they thought they could make a profit out of the Empire, and by and large they were right.) We went into a country where we do not speak the language and do not understand the culture, a country on the brink of civil war (or, in the case of Vietnam, already IN a civil war). We cannot tell the good guys from the bad guys, even assuming we knew which side was "right." We had no exit strategy except "victory," which was ill defined and probably unattainable. And, predictably, we got mired into a situation we can't seem to figure out how to get out of. Time to come home, as Rod says, and hope that we learned something this time.
We learned something in Vietnam: American use of military force against Third World governments and movements cannot succeed, and leftist-supported insurgencies always win. That leason was unlearned in four stages: 1) Over the furious objections of the left side of the aisle, the US supported the governments in El Salvador and Guatemala and the leftist insurgencies lost 2) Over the furious objections of the left side of the aisle, the US invaded Grenada, was welcomed as liberators, and rapidly reestablished reasonably good order. 3) Over the furious objections of the left side of the aisle, the US ejected Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, was welcomed as liberators, and rapidly reestablished reasonably good order. 4) With the help of the left side of the aisle and the muttered objections of the far right, the US ejected the Serbs from Kosovo, was welcomed as liberators by the Albanians, allowed a cleansing of the remaining Serb population and rapidly reestablished an Albanian-dominated order. All four of these were cases where the "lessons of Vietnam" were invoked on the side of non-intervention. For better or for worse, that's how the "lessons of Vietnam" were unlearned.
I think that's a good point, CPA. There's another big question when considering pulling out in stages: Afghanistan?
"Cleansing of the remaining Serb population..." CPA | Homepage | 02.21.07 - 10:54 am | # Why not just call it what it was? The war that was supposed to put a stop to one genocide caused another, and all under the watchful eye of the UN.
Also, when we leave Iraq, which is now unavoidable, who's responsible for the bloodbath to follow?
CPA has his facts wrong regarding the left side of the aisle. Taking his points in order: 1) The left side of the aisle supported Reagan's anti-terrorism initiatives in El Salvador and Guatemala. It was in Nicaragua that Reagan supported terrorists over the objection of Democrats (this was the root of Iran-Contra). 2) Ditto. 3) The votes authorizing military force in Iraq in 1991 were 250-183 in the House and 52-47 in the Senate. Remember, Democrats had the majority at that time. It's also worth noting that the UN supported the first Gulf War (see UNSC Resolution 660), and that the coalition of armies included 34 nations, including most of the Arab world.
I don't agree with Sean Hannity on much, but on this issue I think he's right. If this war is lost, it will be, like Vietnam, lost on the home front. The Democrats, on the whole, care more about getting the White House in '08 than they do about what happens in the Mid-East. This is why they are doing everything possible to undermine the war effort short of stopping the funding; they know the latter would be a political disaster, and they don't have the courage of their convictions to ignore the potential political fallout (hence these fatuous non-binding resolutions -- gives the Congressional cowards the chance to eat their cake and have it too). Of course, the mainstream media are in bed with them on this, same as in Vietnam (remember how the Tet offensive, which was a disaster for the Viet-Cong, was portrayed as a victory in the U.S. press?) This war may have been a bad idea, but it was winnable (maybe not anymore). There is, however, no doubt that a pullout, redeployment, or whatever you may want to call it will embolden the Jihadists. We as a nation are becoming the gutless wonder that a lot of them already think we are.
I disagree, Rob. For that to be true, you have to believe that winning or losing the war is not a matter of material reality, but of will. I simply don't see how anything short of massive and overwhelming force, of the sort that we wouldn't deploy even if we had it to deploy, which we don't, will keep the natural forces of ethnic and religious hatred from expressing themselves in civil war. In short, I don't think this war is winnable anymore. It might have been, in 2003, but I think it's gone beyond our ability to control. And that's not because the American people lacked the will to fight. It's because the American people lacked good leadership -- and because this was a war we were very unlikely to win, given the strategic and social realities on the ground in Iraq. The Hannity view, though, will insulate pro-war Republicans from criticism, if it's believed. They'll be able to say that we lost not because the war was ill-conceived or terribly managed, but because the media and the left sapped our fighting spirit.
Rod -- I agree that the war may have been ill-conceived and was definitely terribly managed, but that doesn't take away from some (not all) responsibility on the part of the Left and the media. I'm far from a GOP/neo-con apologist, but I think Hannity et al. are partially right here. Their error is in not admitting the mismanagement.
Joel is the one with his facts wrong. Lets take the vote first, as its the most concrete. When I say left side of the aisle was against I don't mean it was ALL against, only that MOST of those considered on the left in US were against. Nor do I mean by "left" Democrats. Lloyd Bensen is not the "left" in my book. Ted Kennedy is, John Kerry is, Tip O'Neil was. Yes President Bush got a majority of the Congress to approve the first Gulf WAr -- by getting virtually all Republicans to join a minority of conservative Democrats. As for Grenada and Central America, the key votes went the same way. And major standard bearers of the left, notably Ted Kennedy opposed all the first three military actions I mentioned. So did Senator Kerry (who called the Grenada invasion the action of a "bully"). They're pretty mainstream in the American left I think. Now if you want to attack what I said, a much smarter tack than to deny that all of them were cause celebres of American imperialism to the left (I remember, I was there on college campuses at the time) would be to point out the horrific human cost of defeating the Communist insurgencies in Central America. That was real. But leftist support for actually defeating such insurgencies (in part of course because of the real criminal acts committed while fighting Communism there) -- that's not real, that's a fantasy Democrats made up after the fact.
CPA -- you nailed it. Same is true about the Soviet Union. If the Democrats would have had their way in the 80s (they mostly opposed Reagan at every turn) the Berlin wall would still be standing.
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