Finally, the Democratic Party has a shot at winning a significant number of Evangelical votes, and Democratic leaders are seriously courting religious conservatives:
Such efforts, along with general disillusionment with Bush, may have already paid off. According to a Pew Research Center survey in February, support for Democratic candidates among white evangelicals under 30 jumped from 16 to 26 percent between the 2004 and 2006 elections. Some evangelical leaders now say they're tired of being viewed as an appendage of the GOP, or any other party. "We want to be viewed as we are—people of faith—not a political bloc," says Leith Anderson, president of the National Association of Evangelicals.
That's probably smart politics, for the same reason it would be smarter of, say, African-Americans to be more open to appeals from Republicans. At The Corner, Yuval Levin makes the sensible point that many religious conservatives have not been totally on board with the GOP's economic stances, but have considered social issues more important over the years. If the GOP nominates a social liberal like Rudy Giuliani, it might squander any advantage it would have with religious-conservative voters over a generic Democratic candidate.
I don't see the Democrats becoming the party of Evangelicals anytime soon. But they could easily split this cornerstone of the Republican coalition.
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I don't see the Democrats becoming the party of Evangelicals anytime soon.
I could see it happening, and in less than a couple election cycles. American evangelicals are American before they are evangelical, at least in their heart of hearts, so while they may proclaim "put not your trust in princes," and to some extent they believe they are living that out, in reality they are just as interested in grabbing new middle-class entitlements as anyone more secular-minded.
Because (doesn't everyone know?) the real problem with NCLB and the prescription drug plan was that they weren't "fully funded."
I don't believe for a minute that the Democrats can appeal to Evangelicals on religious grounds.
On the other hand, they may not have to.
At some point, evangelicals may decide they've lost the culture wars. They MAY decide, "We've lost on abortion, and there's no likelihood of reversing Roe vs. Wade. Long term, we're probably going to lose on gay marriage. And really, it doesn't look like those things are very important to the Republicans, who give us lip service but treat us like embarrassing relatives. So, if the social issues we care about are a lost cause anyway, why shouldn't we vote for the guy that promises us some practical, tangible benefits... and may actually deliver?"
I don't believe any evangelical really likes Rudy Giuliani, for instance... but I can easily see evangelicals shrugging and saying, "Yeah, I know, he's pro-abortion... but face it, NOBODY is going to do anything about abortion. At least Rudy looks like a guy who'll know how to take charge next time there's a hurricane, who'll know how to fix the crumbling bridges, who'll know how to prosecute terrorists. MAYBE that's all we can hope for from the government anyway."
Could the Democrats make a similar appeal? It's certainly possible.
I can see the Democrats becoming the party of evangelicals pretty soon, actually. Religious rebellion against the status quo is becoming very popular among young evangelicals, and that includes rebellion agains the Republican party. I graduated from an evangelical college, and very few of the ministry majors would be voting Republican in an election like this one, because most of the Republican candidates are jokes, and the Democrats simply have more to appeal to young evangelicals--they're focusing more on things like healthcare and care for the poor and less on what they perceive to be the self-centered concern for anti-terrorism that they associate with the pro-American, civil-religion, anti-Christian status quo.
If the Republicans don't shift their agenda pretty quickly, I predict that young evangelicals will abandon the party altogether within a few elections.
Astorian: At some point, evangelicals may decide they've lost the culture wars. They MAY decide, "We've lost on abortion, and there's no likelihood of reversing Roe vs. Wade. Long term, we're probably going to lose on gay marriage. And really, it doesn't look like those things are very important to the Republicans, who give us lip service but treat us like embarrassing relatives. So, if the social issues we care about are a lost cause anyway, why shouldn't we vote for the guy that promises us some practical, tangible benefits... and may actually deliver?"
I think that's a pretty astute analysis. It's pretty much how I feel, except for the "why shouldn't we vote for the guy" part.
If you want Blacks to hear what Republicans have to offer, then maybe thay should pay heed to master bloviator Gingrich and show up for the 'black' debate in Baltimore.
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