Kunstler, on a roll
The foulmouthed Jeremiah of the Hudson River Valley lights into Alan Greenspan, who says in his new memoir that the Iraq war is about oil, and the rest of us'n. Excerpt: [The housing bubble], of course, represents an insidious psychology....
I have been a fan of Kunstler since reading his New Urbanism writings ("Geography of Nowhere", etc). His "Eyesore of the Month" is also an entertaining feature on his website. Underlies the sadness I feel about the lack of design and craftsmanship in current architecture, especially at the residential level...
For most of the 17th & 18th centuries Britain was fighting wars whose causes were commercial. A seaport here, an island there, seizing this searoute, holding on to that searoute. The sea was Britain's lifeline, as oil is ours. Now the bonehead Americun peopul and their bonehead politicians and their bonehead journalists may not understand this, but the enemy understands it very well. This we will all learn.
Kunstler's latest post fills me with dread at what awaits the USA once we reach a breaking point, a sort of "perfect storm" of oil shortages, bitter and perhaps futile wars abroad, an economic depression, and domestic terror attacks. Almost none among our politicians have the nerve and the guts to speak the truth about the dangers that we face. Who can hope to be elected president who does not promise more economic growth, lower taxes, and protection from Muslim fundamentalism? The people want to be deluded, and our leaders are more than happy to oblige.
The way in which we are fighting this war against Iraq has never stopped astonishing me - it proves that the Bush administration in the end prizes lower taxes over not only the well-being of its soldiers but also the prospects of their success. Why doesn't anyone in the mainstream media talk about how perverse this all is - tax cuts in a time of war? I am reminded of Gibbon's account of the fall of Constantinople.
Gibbon tells of the desperation which overtook the last Byzantine emperor, Constantine Paleologus, when he sent out a call for volunteers among the citizens of the city to defend it against the onslaught of the Sultan’s forces. In spite of the direness of the situation, his appeals made little impression upon the great majority of his able-bodied male subjects, who, as Gibbon notes, lacked the will to defend their families and their property. The hapless emperor was left with fewer than 7,000 soldiers, mostly Romans, Genoese, and other Italians, to hold off the more than 80,000-strong army of Mohammed II. After the Sultan took the city, an enormous amount of treasure was laid at his feet. Far from becoming overjoyed at taking possession of the riches which he had long coveted, Mohammed instead grew irate and indignant. “And why did you not employ these treasures in the defence of your prince and your country,” he demanded of his highest-ranking prisoner, the Duke Lucas Notaras. “They were yours,” came the captive’s answer, “God had reserved them for your hands.” Mohammed, in this instance gave a sober and discerning reply, “If he reserved them for me, how have you presumed to withhold them so long by a fruitless and fatal resistance?”
It has happened before in history that entire societies not only have refused to fight the forces seeking their doom, but also have perversely chosen greed over survival when given the choice.
What do otherwise intelligent people find intelligent or persuasive about Kunstler?
I mean, no matter what happens, his message is: We're going to hell, and we deserve it.
Only, he can't say it in eight words; he has to use 8,000.
What do otherwise intelligent people find intelligent or persuasive about Kunstler?
I mean, no matter what happens, his message is: We're going to hell, and we deserve it.
Only, he can't say it in eight words; he has to use 8,000.
No matter how intelligent a reader may be, those 8 words are insufficient to explain how and why, and that's why the 7992 other words are needed.
"I mean, no matter what happens, his message is: We're going to hell, and we deserve it."
Like a lot of sucessful authors, Kunstler knows that hype sells. The scary thing about Kunstler is that so many people seem to get a perverse kick out of the "we deserve it" meme.
I read Kunstlers web blog, and enjoy it. His vulgarity makes me wince at times, but I get the uncomfortable feeling that he is going to be proved right, sooner or later. I do like the fact that he get everybody in his sights. No one ever accused Kunstler of picking political sides. Everybody gets it in spades. Nobody is better at pointing out how ugly our public spaces are, and how to fix them. His books should be required reading for public planners.
"Nobody is better at pointing out how ugly our public spaces are, and how to fix them."
You're right about the "pointing out" part, but Kunstler couldn't 'fix' dinner, as they say down south. Yes, McMansions and suburban spawl are unsustainable. Sneering at McMansions doesn't really fix anything.
pyp's history lesson doesn't make pleasant reading but he's right. I'd only add that Constantinople was rich in politicans, lawyers, bureaucrats, clerics, and financial types--basically the readership of the New York Times. Constantinople was poor in fighting men. Nonetheless when it was too late, the defenders fought and died like heroes. Had they only stopped their silliness in time. Heartbreaking.
Kunstler (and Deneen) need both a serious lesson in oil production and economics.
Having said that, Kunstler is spot-on on his cultural analysis. He understands the problem with suberbia and how we waste oil better than most.
I once read one of his checklists on how to arrange your life for the new era that is to come, and I found that I have already done every one, just like he has. I'm a freak! Not because I think the end of the world is going to happen, but because it is a good Crunchy way to live,
-- Get out of the Sunbelt while you can.
-- Look for a traditional small town to live in or very near.
-- Live where fresh water is assured.
-- Reduce your car dependency.
-- STOP urban lives lived in the rural setting.
-- Get out of debt.
-- Learn how to make yourself useful to other people.
-- Become involved in public life and community activities in anticipation of political crisis.
-- Learn to play a musical instrument. Produce your own entertainment
Amen.
HOWEVER: The problem with Kunstler (and to some extent Deneen and most Peak Oil panic guys) is that although peak oil is indeed true, they:
- don't work in the oil industry and don't know much about reserves or drilling, and wouldn't know an oil well from a water well
- have no concept of how much oil we have left (long time yet)
- don't take into account how much room we have for conservation that wouldn't effect our economy mcuh that will happen as prices rise
- don't grasp how coal and nuclear will dampen the effect of peak oil
- don't grasp how technology is creating wealth faster than resources are runing out. For example, LED lighting is dropping the cost of lighting (why oil was first sought out, kerosene lighting) by 10 times. This saves a lot of oil. This sort of thing never gets factored in to the panic attack.
But the main problem is that Kunster is that he does not understand how it is possible that the world grows richer every day in a world of fixed resources.
He is trapped in a failed economic model, thinking like Marx that RESOURCES, LABOR, CAPITAL are what make the world go around, and forgetting that PEOPLE, IDEAS, THINGS are what make us rich.
He is also a population control freak, and thinks more people make us poorer, when the opposite has been true - the more PEOPLE & IDEAS, more wealth and THINGS. He doesn't understand that resources never become short because man is clever and finds ways to maipulate and change them.
He needs to repeat every morning before he starts his rants: For all of human history, man has become richer. From the first stone tool kit of the first primative human until today. Only then might he pause before he chants about how we will become poorer for the first time ever due to one resource, oil, draining out.
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