Here are new poll results from Gallup on the Republican race. Good news for Ron Paul -- he's now running neck and neck with Mike Huckabee (with whom, let me say, I scored the same 53 percent agreement rating as I did with Ron Paul in that Politalk.com quiz we took last week -- wonder why it assigned me Paul and not Huckabee? Just curious). The bad news is that both Paul and Huckabee are only polling 4 percent.
(Got that Paul fans? Stop sending me e-mails telling me you support Ron Paul. Good for you. I'm not the one you need to be convincing.)
Romney, by the way, is spiraling down, down, down -- he's only at 7 percent in the polls, despite his millions and his organization. McCain is enjoying a huge bump. But if I were putting money on this thing, I'd bet on Giuliani. God help us, a Rudy-Hillary race...
Anyway, what do you think it would take for Paul to break out? For Huckabee? For Romney?
I just don't see it happening for Paul. I love him for his war stance, and for his courageous willingness to stick by his principles in these debates. But he's too deeply at odds with the mainstream ever to win the GOP nomination. For Huck, I think it could still happen, but it would require GOP primary voters growing disillusioned with Rudy's social liberalism and/or his character and temperament. There would have to be some scandal, I think, to scare off social and religious conservatives. Huck could be a solid second choice, especially because he's so personable and sensible (except on the war, but he's where all of them are). But I think for Huck to emerge, the big three all have to make big mistakes.
Maybe it'll happen. I hope it'll happen. I doubt it'll happen. But you never know, not this year. Ryan Sager explains why McCain's not likely to go the distance. I could be wrong, but I think that the more people see of Fred Thompson, the less popular he's going to be. Still, these guys are so far out in front of Huck that it's hard to see how the race could be shaken up. And Romney, he's far behind nationally, but he's doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire -- wins there could cause a lot of people to rethink him, especially if none of the other candidates have sealed the deal.
Your scenario? How could Paul or Huck pull this thing out?
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you remeber, of course, another figuer from history who stuck by his beliefs and what that got us, right? I'm talking about Hitler, of course. Sometimes, no...I'm going to say almost all of the time, sticking to your beliefs no matter what is not a good or admirable quality.
Just so. Even in the throes of Alzheimer's, Reagan wouldn't have been stupid enough to invade Iraq. For that level of idiocy, there's only one man. LOL! Gosh do I miss Ronaldus Magnus. A man history is vindicating as a great President and person of depth. (I'm serious, by the way.)
Today's date: Sep. 20, 2007. Primaries: February 2008 (or as early as January?) and later. General election: November 2008. It's fun to talk about all this, but so very much can happen between today and the primaries and then the general election. These campaigns are going to take all kinds of twists and turns, and it's much too early to rule anyone out. Everyone had McCain's goose as cooked several weeks ago, but he's hanging in. Bill Clinton, I believe, was considered down for the count at one point. So, #1, I'm not so sure all is lost for Huckabee or Paul, and I'm not so sure Giuliani is inevitable. There's a lot of us fundies in the grassroots.
#2: I'm not so sure that 2008 will be a disaster for Republicans -- again, we're a long way out. I think the 2006 disaster wasn't about Iraq so much; it was about Mark Foley's pederast nature and George Allen's "Macaca Moment," as well as general dissatisfaction with Republican fiscal governance. I'm open to being corrected here, but which Senate or House races can we reasonably demonstrate were won by Democrats because of the Iraq issue?
I'm thinking that the Republican candidate has a chance if he presents himself convincingly as a fiscal conservative and one who would appoint conservative judges, especially when the GOP starts rolling the attack ads out re: taxes and judges. I also think Democrats have a way of shooting themselves in the foot; I mean, y'all couldn't beat Bush *twice*? Whatever you think of the court issues in 2000, the whole court thing could have been avoided with a decisive victory by Gore. In 2004, after four years of Bush's gaffes and incompetence, John Kerry, an intelligent, military man, couldn't win either. What makes us so certain that Hillary or Obama would clean up on a GOP candidate, any of which will be more articulate, intelligent, charismatic and photogenic than the current POTUS?
Just sayin'. I could certainly be wrong. But I'm curious what others think. As far as my preferences, I'm for Huckabee at this point, and really hope I don't have to make a choice between Hillary and Rudy.
Re Kerry's intelligence, please note that his grades at Yale were even lower than W's.
I remember some wag's line from the last time Kucinich was running: the only way he'd get the nomination was if all the candidates at the debate died because of being served tainted ham sandwiches; he would have survived because he's a vegetarian. (Of course, at that time Lieberman was still a Democrat and presumably wouldn't have partaken of the ham, either.) I'm not sure what the silver bullet like that is that could leave Paul as the last one standing this time.
Looking at national polls makes no sense because we don't have a national election. We have a 50 state election system so you have to look at state by state polls. Most people don't make up their minds until the last two weeks before the primary and caucus in NH and Iowa.
I would like to see Huckabee and Richardson do 3 - 5 one on one debates in NH. They both have such great senses of humor it would be one "one liner" after another but serious.
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