Time, bin Laden and us
George Friedman of Stratfor.com (subscription only) says that since 9/11/2001, Osama bin Laden has been a spent force, but the United States has undergone a "much more profound" transformation. We've been worn down, and have become cynical. We're exhausted. That...
The Chinese know all too well how to play this type of checkers.
The idea that AQ is intentionally refraining from attacking has been around for a while. This is supported by Ron Suskind's factual finding, if accurate, that Zawahiri himself called off a poison gas subway attack in NY that a particular loosely-affiliated AQ cell was ready to carry out, and which we would have had no way to stop ourselves. (Reference is Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine.)
I have faith in the proven ability of the United States to tear itself apart psychologically, politically or both and come out whole on the other side.
I am not afraid of change. What I fear is the ability to stifle change, and lock our nation into a stagnant path to a dead end. I believe that the curtailment of civil rights in the name of security is a mistaken step down that path; if upheaval is the way we need to get back on the forward path, then so be it.
If this turns out to be the time that we descend into tyranny (not meaning to be dramatic...), then that is what we will be dealing with next. We threw off and out a tyrant once; we can do it again.
I posted but it hasn't gone through. Perhaps it will show up later.
In any case the idea that AQ is intentionally not attacking us here, and instead as a strategic choice is allowing us to self-immolate for the time being, isn't without at least some factual support. According to Ron Suskind, Zawahiri himself called off a poison gas attack on the NY subways - one which was operationally ready to go, and against which we could do nothing.
Al-Queda invested a few hundred grand and nineteen lives to attack us. In return, they got us to spend many thousands of more lives, hundreds of billions of dollars and most of our international credibility. Had the towers and 3,000 lives been the only butcher's bill, I would say bin Laden largely failed. Our reaction to that attack was his real victory (however, fleeting. I agree with Franklin that bin Laden might underestimate our ability to come together.)
I know that in 2007 every new bin Laden tape gets both sides saying he's a Republican or a Democrat. But the fact remains that every new tape is a slap in all of our faces.
I posted on this topic on the other thread about how this 9/11 anniversary is really an occasion for us to mark how unserious and unsteady our nation really is -- and how we really AREN'T prepared, nor will we be, to confront an implacable civilizational foe with a murderous, bloodthirsty god as its standard-bearer.
We'll get hit again, the death toll will be far higher, the predictable leftist response will be if anything more vociferous and childish and shrill and it will be GAME OVER for Western civilization as we know it.
I'm actually taking the long view of history and hoping that China will continue to morph into a Christian nation (10,000 converts a day, or so I heard, with a predicted 200 million by mid-century -- that's two thirds of the United States' current population). Now THAT will be a foe the death-cult jihadists hadn't counted on. That will be a foe to win the clash of civilizations. More gumption, more can-do spirit, more family cohesion, more patriotism -- and frankly more SOUL in China (lead paint on toys notwithstanding). Let the jihadists try to take on a Christian Red Army -- as bizarre and as oxymoronic as those words sound together. They will roll right over the pathetic suicide bombers.
But America? Look, I'm a patriot to the core, but we're toast. We're arguing about whether Britney is too fat, but taking little note that she looked like a prostitute at the VMA. We're running ads accusing a wartime general of being a traitor and getting away with it. We've got a coffee company gearing up to target kids with its next marketing push. That's just a sampling of this week's dystopian nonsense.
We're not a serious nation any more. As left-leaning James Howard Kunstler has observed, we're pretty much a nation of clowns driving around in cartoonish SUV's, wearing childish clothing, eating gluttonous diets and rolling into the casino parking lots hoping to strike it rich quick.
The secularists and cultural Marxists have hollowed our nation out. We've got really fine, dedicated folks in our armed forces. We've got some trustworthy enclaves of moral clarity dotted here and there in so-called "flyover country." And we've got a few Cassandras trying to stop the lemmings from walking off the postmodern cliff.
But for the most part, we really ARE a paper tiger. America is the West's last chance, and America has shown repeatedly (just sample some of the comments here) that it no longer has the will to survive. So it probably doesn't matter too much for the long term whether al Qaeda hits us again soon or not.
Only here's the catch, folks: They will hit us again. And it will be bad. Really bad. Deal with that reality.
But for the most part, we really ARE a paper tiger. America is the West's last chance, and America has shown repeatedly (just sample some of the comments here) that it no longer has the will to survive.
Oh what self-aggrandizing drivel -- here is where I just flat-out disagree with Rod and his fetishizing of the idea that the United States is just doomed, doomed, doomed, because we're somehow too Liberal. The above comment, pointing at a coffee company thinking about advertising to children as if the barbarians are invading Rome, is indicative of this hysteria.
So-called conservatives who whine about how we pay attention to Britney Spears ironically think they're long-term thinkers, forgetting every age has their trivia and pop culture. In their zeal to bury America, they forget our political, economic, cultural, and psychological dominance over the world. They fall into easy despair, whine about a phantom Marxism, and, strangely, pine for a Christian China to save the day.
I have a little more faith in my country than that. Submit to easy despair if you must. The rest of us will carry on and ignore you.
www.themechanicaleye.com
DU
Red Dirt? I wonder if you are using that word as it was meant to be used, you know, patriot.
You really blew it when you included [w]e're running ads accusing a wartime general of being a traitor and getting away with it... under your label of "dystopian" and linked to your acclamation of being patriot to the core.
A true patriot insists on protection of rights for everyone, not just those who agree with him.
Perhaps you'd like to clarify, and maybe think a bit longer before posting.
Red Dirt wrote well. Franklin and DU-eye, on the other hand ....
DU, perhaps you would tell us what the, say, 1760 and 1860 equivalents of the Britney Spears phenomenon were -- what single lewd trivium consumed as much of the national conversation? But I'm glad to know you will carry on without us, because you are very good at carrying on.
As for Franklin, either you misunderstood RD when he wrote his dismay that MoveOn got away with no significant protest -- certainly none from Dems -- to its ad, or you believe that the curtailment of civil rights to folks like RD is justified by their disagreement with you. Perhaps you'd like to clarify, and maybe think a bit longer before posting.
A raised glass to you Red Dirt. I grant you respect for having the courage to buck the tide and making well stated points. Don't know how you have the energy to fight but keep on. For my part I just get too disheartened to engage after I read some of the stuff that gets posted. Reading some of the criticism one suspects your thought process too deep for clarity and hard to grasp by libertarians and leftist thinkers.
I think your idea that China could be an ally gives me pause. I had previously been gravely concerned about that country and what I perceive to be the detrimental effects it is having on our economy and thus our labor force but you point to an interesting perspective. Perhaps I must reconsider.
George, where you got the idea that I wanted to silence Red Dirt is beyond me. Perhaps you'd care to expand on that.
I get the impression that "patriotism" is being redefined as "trust and support our leaders, or be branded as traitors." I won't stay silent in that particular process.
Perhaps you'd be reassured by this: dialogue is the heart and soul of democracy. The moment we suppress any speech (political correctness, hate crimes, assumption of guilt) is the moment we stop being a democracy.
Disagreement always comes first. Consensus is what comes from finding what common ground is possible, and applying objective standards to what is right, wrong, legal or illegal. The MoveOn ad, for example, might have been stupid (it was), ill advised (only in the minds of those who would rather not be confronted with disagreement) and not factual (something Petraeus had plenty of time to show, and then did so), but it was not outside of the democratic process.
I'm not yet at the point of fully agreeing with Red Dirt, but I'm much afraid that he may be right. When I read this from John Derbyshire a couple of weeks ago, I thought good grief, he's right:
"For if there is a sickness in the soul of Islam, there is a corresponding sickness in the soul of the West. As the darkness, cruelty, and obscurantism of jihadist Islam, described in such detail in this book, descend on our lands, our souls rise joyfully to greet them."
I disagree massively with Derb about a lot, including most of the article from which this quote is taken (I'm not including the link since Beliefnet seems to be touchy about that--a search for "derbyshire spencer islam" will get you there). So let's not go off on what-all else Derb is wrong about: in this paragraph I think he is dead right about the death wish that's clearly abroad in much of the post-Christian West.
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