Crunchy Con

Ultimate Tradcon Parlor Fantasy

Wednesday September 12, 2007

Categories: Decline and fall
If decline-and-fall enthusiasts like me sat around the Prancing Pony getting pie-eyed on ale and pipeweed with Samuel Huntington, this is the kind of thing we might come up with. And so the question: can we, the people of the...
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Comments
Tom
September 12, 2007 9:31 AM

Hey Rod
Is ole Bronson still around at the Texas Catholic?

Brad
September 12, 2007 9:32 AM

Ironically, Enlightenment universalism is the only perspective, or at least the only one I'm familiar with, that can legitimize Christian civilization (such as it may be) from the outside--which is to say give it independent objective validity and thus any universal claim to "rights".

Otherwise it's just a power rumble between subjective adherents to respective civilizations in the jungle of nihilism, where simply the most powerful beast wins.

TheisticAgnostic
September 12, 2007 9:33 AM

Yet by the same principle, since others have their homelands and their rights, we should leave them alone, as long as they leave us alone. Live and let live.

Seems we in the West should have been trying that along time before now... Say, from the 1850s to the present. The West's behaviour in most all of it's institutions from Constintine to the present has not been to follow the historical Jesus who said simply, "Don't lord it over people like the gentiles." The history of Christendom, with a few exceptions, has been nothing but domination. Islam is just plagerizing Christendom's thinking here. Sorry, it is all in the history books. And we will all suffer for the sins of our fathers.

ta

J
September 12, 2007 9:45 AM

You know, when Islam conquered Greek Byzantium, they preserved much of the Greek classical heritage, and we got copies of Aristotle etc. from them.

Another example, the barbarians conquered Rome, but they soon found themselves Christian, speaking Romance, and wearing togas. Oh, wait, not that last one.

My point: Islam might conquer some of the world but find themselves very influenced by that world.

dbk
September 12, 2007 9:56 AM

"The history of Christendom, with a few exceptions, has been nothing but domination. Islam is just plagerizing Christendom's thinking here. Sorry, it is all in the history books. And we will all suffer for the sins of our fathers."

Will
September 12, 2007 10:02 AM

"Jim Pinkerton goes on to propose a grand global alliance of the Christian peoples against all others (and drawing Israel under our protective umbrella)."

Gee, what a surprise. Pinkerton's been singing that same song for years now, along with the others at techcentralstation.com . Dallas's own Fred Turner dispenses the same pro-Israel Kool-aid to anyone who can stand his didactic, leaden prose.

The US and Israel against the Rest of the World- that's the neo-con dream.

Nick the Greek
September 12, 2007 10:06 AM

Decline and fall ENTHUSIASTS? Sounds like some people are positively salivating at the fantasy of Eurabia. Ironic that Israel is being invited into the fold when three-quarters of a century ago, the exact same doomsday scenarios were being touted about the Jews ("they'll turn St. Paul's Cathedral into a synagogue").

brian
September 12, 2007 10:16 AM

You know, when Islam conquered Greek Byzantium, they preserved much of the Greek classical heritage, and we got copies of Aristotle etc. from them.

Another example, the barbarians conquered Rome, but they soon found themselves Christian, speaking Romance, and wearing togas. Oh, wait, not that last one.

My point: Islam might conquer some of the world but find themselves very influenced by that world.

This is an interesting point, and I would like to hear a response to it.

Sure, Islam may do away with much of popular culture, but what traditional conservative wishes to conserve that anyway?

Alicia
September 12, 2007 10:17 AM

I think the Cassandra's of Europe, among them American Bruce Bawer, the late Oriana Fallaci, Ayaan Hirsi Ali (now of the American Enterprise Institute) should be listened to carefully, and heeded.

However, I think Europe being drawn into a period of great civil unrest perhaps leading to civil war is much more likely than a cultural takeover by Muslims. The Danish cartoons were a wake-up call to Europeans who couldn't understand how something as (to them) trivial as a silly cartoon could lead to calls for Europe's annihilation.

This is why the battle of ideas needs to be fought now, instead of waiting until things become so bad that average Europeans are willing to embrace the solutions of the extremeists among them, whether of the left or the right, Muslim or Christian.

Susan
September 12, 2007 10:21 AM

I suppose people have to worry about something, and this sounds like a good one, in that it is
1. Outside the control of any individual, therefore we don't have to (can't) do anything about it, and
2. All in the more-or-less distant future, and
3. In any case highly unlikely.

Not unlike the fear of Global Communism. Or, looking further back, the Domination of Protestant America By The Pope.

Global Communism fell beneath the wheels of the economic power of the West. As did Roman Catholicism as a secular force (and, in many cases, as a spiritual force). I suspect that, as Nick points out, Islam will be no different.

Now, whether the culture into which all these people have been or will soon be integrated is a good thing.....well, that's another question.

Sal Mineo
September 12, 2007 10:26 AM

"It's hard, to put it mildly, to see the West reversing 300 years of its intellectual and cultural history. Not that there would be anything terribly wrong with that from a tradcon perspective, but I find it very, very unlikely"

In those 300 years of cultural history is included vast changes in the social roles of women in the West. As you plainly know from thinking about the Victorian era, that does not mean vast changes in the sexual roles of women. Do you think it wouldn't be terribly wrong to reverse that?

In those 300 years of cultural history is included vast changes in views on race in the West. Racism is generally now acknowledged as a terrible thing. By contrast, human slavery was legal in the US and England 300 years ago. Do you think it wouldn't be terribly wrong to reverse that?

I enjoy reading you, Rod, and I believe that we are in cultural turmoil in the West. But to fail to see the incredible value of what we have accomplished culturally, to say that it wouldn't be terribly wrong to reverse that isn't what you're committed to as a traditional conservative, unless you think that traditional conservatism is committed to the status quo for gender and race 300 years ago. And that, I think, would be terribly wrong. If this is what you think, I think you should defend that straight out. If it's not what you think, you should refute it, for these are unhappy views, I think.

dbkenner
September 12, 2007 10:32 AM

"The history of Christendom, with a few exceptions, has been nothing but domination. Islam is just plagerizing Christendom's thinking here. Sorry, it is all in the history books. And we will all suffer for the sins of our fathers."

How silly. Christendom has its share of blood and sin, but to compare the preservation of Western Civilization with 1400 years of ravenous Islam is ridiculous. You may as well believe in fairies. No, it's not in all the history books, unless all the history books are written by Noam Chomsky. The clearest refutation of this nonsense is an eyes-open look at the differences between Islamic societies and those (today and yesterday) derived from the Judeo-Christian tradition (which preserved the Greek tradition even as it modified it). Yes, the "Judeo" part was not recognized for a long time; that doesn't make it any less essential.

Furthermore, even the horrific sins of Christendom produced advances in civilization which we must recognize, even as we do not forget the crimes of the past. The Spanish Inquisition added the novelty of presenting witnesses in your defence. The Crusades (and similar battles) staved off the murderous advances of Islam into Europe. History is like that: progress often comes from the depths of sin, rather than the posturing of the good. Kicking the Muslims out of Spain saved Spain. Kicking the Jews out of Spain saved nothing; it just became another sorry chapter in the history of Christians persecuting Jews.

When the Crusaders sacked Constantinople the Pope was so angry he excommunicated the Crusaders (no small penalty back then). Today, we can't even get the so-called moderate Muslims of CAIR to denounce suicide bombers.

As for us all "suffering the sins of our fathers," it's not our fathers that are to blame. It is us. We are the one's bequething a world of increasingly violent jihad to our children. WE won't suffer (most of us won't) but our children and grand children will reap what we have sown.

The kind of psuedo-historical/philosophical thinking represented by theisticagnostic just muddies the waters.

Francisco
September 12, 2007 10:35 AM

There is no returning to the Shire once one has held the Ring. Frodo and Samwise cannot reinsert themselves painlessly into the ordinary, parochial life of the Shire they once considered the apex of desirability. Some things just can't be forgotten. The 20th century has brutalized Western Man's conscience beyond his capacity of reversion. Traditional society cannot be artificially resurrected as a revenant for the sake of mere convenience. If the West reverts to Shire-dom, it will be in a new, different Shire, born, I suspect, out of sheer, crushing necessity.

Brad
September 12, 2007 10:40 AM

"And that, I think, would be terribly wrong. If this is what you think, I think you should defend that straight out. If it's not what you think, you should refute it, for these are unhappy views, I think."

Sal, that's not how this blog works, at least as far as I've observed.

Rod tosses the red meat straight up at center court, and the hounds leap and snap at it as they will.

marginal mystic
September 12, 2007 10:42 AM

You know, Mr Dreher, for someone who is disillusioned with the neocons' opening act in Iraq you are remarkably uncritical of their Big Picture. Presumably you are onboard for the next step, the attack on Iran.

Rob Grano
September 12, 2007 10:57 AM

"And that, I think, would be terribly wrong. If this is what you think, I think you should defend that straight out. If it's not what you think, you should refute it, for these are unhappy views, I think."

Sal, no tradcons that I know reject the entire Enlightenment out of hand, or say that no good at all came from it. It is the universalism of Enlightenment philosophy, the idea that reason and empirical knowledge are the whole ball of wax, that would have to be overturned (if I'm reading Rod right), and that's unlikely to happen.

Brad
September 12, 2007 10:59 AM

Well, let's see, here's the most recent Risk board map:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Christ_Islam.png

Seems to me, even though they're 600 or so years late into the game but while they also hold that pivotal Middle East territory, they're still disproportionately behind the curve in taking and keeping territory.

My guess is a religion of A-holes, of any denomination, is just not persuasive enough to take and hold ground long term.

Rombald
September 12, 2007 11:27 AM

Assuming that Islam cannot be lived with, there is a third alternative besides (i) genocide and (ii) separationism - de-Islamisation of the Muslim world. I would like to hear comments on how to go about this.

I've said this before, but the firmness of Islam seems to depend on its connection with patriotism. A Kurdish friend of mine has apostatised from Islam, and maintains that Islam is the religion of his oppressors, the Arabs. I don't know whether this helps, though.

M_David
September 12, 2007 11:33 AM

Jim Pinkerton goes on to propose...a non-imperialist alliance that is happy to let others go their own way -- but one that will protect its own if war is declared against them.

There is a Clash of Civilizations, but it has nothing to do with Islam. Other cultures are simmply filling the vacuum left as we fade.

THERE WILL BE NO WAR. Islam is not the problem. We will self-implode on our own. We forget is how easy it is for a democracy to fall without a shot fired.

This clash is a political conflict between two groups:

a) traditionalists who reject modernism and feminism and embrace traditional Western values

b) everyone who rejects traditional Western values (liberals, Islamic fundamentalists, and some immigrants)

Europe: in this clash, they are toast. Too many home-grown Islamic folk teamed up with a population that has already rejected having children and hope for the future. I doubt Europe will be remotely the same place in another 100 years; they will lose buy default.

America: a different beast, and much better off. I could guess that traditionalists will win here, but the jury is out. They could very well have a large enough well-educated and culturally engaged minority to hold their own. And they have many culturally traditional immigrants from Central/South America will join them.

Many people are confused about this conflict. Like Pinkerton, who cries war. And those whom are baffled as to why liberals always team up politically with Islam saying huh? aren't Islamic folk in the opposite corner liberals are? Actually, no. They both hate traditional Western values, adn thus see each other as fellow travelers.

This is also why the "Purple America" theory is bunk. The division in America is very real, and growing worse by the day. My grandmother reflects how 'back in the day' politics was just politics; it didn't change who your friends were. Not today though, because cultural values are what is at stake.

Brad
September 12, 2007 11:44 AM

"a) traditionalists who reject modernism and feminism and embrace traditional Western values"

It's just so hard to fully reject modernism on a global, geostationary satellite networked, Internet blog, isn't it, M_David; it's like that booger you just can't quite thump off. ;-)

Will
September 12, 2007 11:54 AM

"...everyone who rejects traditional Western values (liberals, Islamic fundamentalists, and some immigrants)"

Liberals reject traditional Western values? What values are you talking about? I consider myself a liberal, and I'm fighting to keep the neo-conservatives and the pseudo-Christians from destroying both Western and Eastern culture.

JLF
September 12, 2007 12:05 PM

There are a couple of problems the neocon fantasy fatally ignores: First, Christianity, no less than Islam, is a proselytizing religon. Evangelicals especially feel compelled by Christ in Matthew 28 to "go into all the world, making disciples of all men." This creates an irreconcilable conflict with a live-and-let-live diplomacy.

Second, we live in a world of asymetrical power. It only took nineteen men and a quarter million dollar investment to give us 9/11. And while Afganistan provided bin Laden shelter, no government plotted with him. No one has yet suggested a satisfactory militarily response to such a threat Bush and the neocons have ignored this reality, preferring to create straw men to knock down conventionally in their great Global War on Terror. This tactic has predictably created more jihadists than it has killed, leaving Bush and his ilk looking more and more like Brer Rabbit and the Tarbaby, but without Brer Rabbit's insight into his perdicament.

marginal mystic
September 12, 2007 12:19 PM

Remarkable, Mr Dreher, that someone so disillusioned with Act One of the neocon masterplan (the Iraq War) is so uncritical of their Big Picture. I suppose you are enthusiastic for the next step, the bombing of Iran?

Loudon is a Fool
September 12, 2007 12:26 PM

I don't think M_David suggested the clash was between Luddites and Geeks. It would be a mistake to assume that tradition is an enemy of technology, notwithstanding the fact that technology poses certain challenges to the good life.

Rob Grano
September 12, 2007 12:37 PM

"While our troops die and our treasury is drained to prepare for their future conquests, their apologists like Rod Dreher create the Islamic boogeyman from the dusty pages of 15th century propaganda."

Please wipe your fevered brow, Kim, and that right quick. Tradcons are not Zionists; indeed, some of us have been accused of being anti-Semitic because of the simple fact that we don't unreservedly back Israel.

The Jihadist threat is no medieval boogeyman (see the books by Bat Ye'or, Srdja Trifkovic, and others), but neither are all Muslims Jihadists, and we don't say they are. A little nuance here would be nice.

Brad
September 12, 2007 12:44 PM

"I don't think M_David suggested the clash was between Luddites and Geeks. It would be a mistake to assume that tradition is an enemy of technology, notwithstanding the fact that technology poses certain challenges to the good life."

It's more a case of being one of Ray Bradbury's "Martians": no one can really be a traditionalist any more, we can only be different types of modernists, perhaps antagonistic, perhaps not, squabbling over which mandarin purity test of "traditionalism" or "modernism" should apply to whom, to what degree.

Brad
September 12, 2007 12:46 PM

"The Jihadist threat is no medieval boogeyman (see the books by Bat Ye'or, Srdja Trifkovic, and others), but neither are all Muslims Jihadists, and we don't say they are. A little nuance here would be nice."

Nicely and succinctly put.

Larry Parker
September 12, 2007 1:09 PM

It figures Tolkien would be used to justify war against multiculturalism. Our friend J.R.R. was quite the British imperialist in his time.

That said, even with all the gloom and doom on here from Rod and others, I still can't see the continent that fought the Battles of Vienna and the Crusades (and countless other wars against the Ottomans) surrendering without a shot.

Granted, Europe ain't quite as militaristic as it was :-) (Though I thought, given the events of the 1930s and 1940s, that's exactly what we in the U.S. were aiming for.)

But even in the "anything-goes" Netherlands, when extreme Islam has reared its ugly head, Pim Fortuyn, Theo van Gogh and Ayaan Hirsi-Ali have risen up at the cost of their lives, or at least livelihoods, to combat it.

In Germany, the large Turkish-German population (and an overall nation understandably worried, after those horrific "events" of the last century, about civil liberties) is not stopping the interior minister, Wolfgang Schauble, from being a bit bull against Islamic-inspired terror threats.

And in Britain, no one is calling Gordon Brown and his home secretary, Jacqui Smith, "soft on terrorism" -- even as they make the subtle but important distinction (in a land where Muslims from the Subcontinent are a significant share of the population) that anti-terrorism is a series of police actions rather than a war.

I still have hope, unlike some of you, that Osama Bin Laden won't soon be holding the rotating presidency of the EU ...

Loudon is a Fool
September 12, 2007 1:13 PM

Since post-moderns can be distinguished from traditionalists, I think you're wrong, Brad. If traditionalism were like ignorance or naivete you might have a point. But it's not.

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 1:23 PM

"I still have hope, unlike some of you, that Osama Bin Laden won't soon be holding the rotating presidency of the EU ..."

What if it's God's will, though?

(And, Larry, you would have to put OBL "in the presidency of the EU ..." wouldn't you! Now, he'll be elevated from Boogeyman to Anti-Christ!)

Heifer

Will Harrington
September 12, 2007 1:24 PM

Brad, what then is a modernist? Modernism is simply the cultural tendency to follow tho current mode. It is a culture of changing fashion. Ive noticed over the past decade and a half, that there are no know fashions, just rehashes of what has gone before in the past fifty years or so trotted out as the next new thing. Absent any know fashions or modes artists simply push at moral boundaries to get people to think they are avant gaurd, but again, there is nothing really new. Absent new fashions, we see people adopting means of dress, not as a declaration that they are cutting edge and rich enough to afford new stuff (the essence, perhaps, of modernism) but rather they dress to express affiliation with a social group (a form of tribalism). I do believe that modernism is dead. THe question is, what has been left in its wake?

Franklin Evans
September 12, 2007 1:43 PM

Larry:

It figures Tolkien would be used to justify war against multiculturalism. Our friend J.R.R. was quite the British imperialist in his time.

I'm sorry you get that impression. I seriously doubt Tolkien saw himself in that light. Indeed, I am left to assume that you've not read very much of what he wrote. The mythology for which the War of the Ring is the end of a long cycle is rich with the futility of war and the hubris of ownership and intolerance (born of unreasoning fear) towards others. He wrote very strongly about the embracing of evil for so-called good ends, and the tragic fruits to be had from it.

Brad
September 12, 2007 1:52 PM

"Since post-moderns can be distinguished from traditionalists, I think you're wrong, Brad."

Huh? I thought that's exactly what I claimed, that they distinguish themselves from others.

I also pointed out, though, that to the extent they voluntarily and involuntarily incorporate elements of our organic modern culture into their "traditionalist" lives they cease, by definition, to be traditionalist; by definition they have become some sort of oxymoronic "modern traditionalists" that have mutated to metabolize modernity at least as well as "modernists", unless they are simply speaking wistfully and nostalgically.

A "traditionalism" that can evolve to subsequently become a different "traditionalism" from a prior "traditionalism" is an odd "traditionalism", indeed.

Perhaps a focus on values different from "traditionalism" and "modernism" would offer firmer purchase.

Brad
September 12, 2007 1:57 PM

"Brad, what then is a modernist?"

Damned if I know, other than what all of us are here in the here and now.

Rich
September 12, 2007 2:01 PM

The problem with the whole Eurabia hypothesis is that it begins with a faulty assumption. It assumes that three demographic trends will continue indefinitely.

1. Native European birthrates will remain below replacement level.

2. Muslim birthrates in Europe will remain well above replacement level.

3. Muslim immigration to Europe remains very high while Muslim emigration remains very low.

If any one of these trends changes, then the whole "Islamic Europe" scare disappears in a puff of smoke.

We don't know what will happen with the first two. The grandkids of the "Generation of '68" may want larger families. The children of current European Muslims may want smaller ones. There is no precedent that suggests that current birthrates will stay the same.

But the third point is very likely to change regardless of the other two. France's new leader is talking immigration reform. In fact, the French government has even discussed pilot programs to pay some immigrants to leave. France is considered to have the largest Muslim population in Western Europe at around 10-12%. Switzerland is buzzing over new laws that deport not just immigrants involved in crimes, but their families as well. Germany is looking to restrict immigration from Turkey. There were demonstrations in Belgium against Islamization just yesterday.

Now we are seeing the (admittedly early) beginnings of a populist movement against Muslim immigration in multiple Western European countries that are all less than 12% Muslim. Why would anyone assume that current immigration trends there will continue? Do you assume that Europeans are as complacent as cattle? And if you do, then have you ever met any actual Europeans? Because the ones I know don't seem so complacent, and sure don't seem willing to live under Sharia.

Alicia
September 12, 2007 2:07 PM

In reference to this topic, while reading the current Christopher Hitchens piece about Tariq Ramadan in "Slate" I came across this link (via an Anne Applebaum article on Ayaan Hirsi Ali) to a fascinating article defending Hirsi Ali, and criticizing both the response of the European elites to her and the preference for multiculturalism instead of individual rights and women's rights.

It is by the French philospher Pascal Bruckner. It is long, but well worth reading to the end.

http://www.signandsight.com/features/1146.html

Sotto Voce
September 12, 2007 2:32 PM

In that the Jihadist threat is capable of creating a lot of asymmetrical disruption and chaos in whatever culture it emerges is self-evident. In that it threatens to become a dominant, centralized empire is hardly so obvious. The chaotic blood-letting in Iraq has revealed an extreme disunity between Muslims which I suspect is a mere microcosm of the bigger picture. It is probably inherent within Islam.

Despite the presence of a universal place of pilgrimage (Mecca) there is no Islamic pontiff. Islam (like Protestantism) places a high value on individual responsibility for conversion and the authority of its scripture. Even in its most ostensibly fundamentalist guise there is room for endless theological disputes to emerge based on individual believers' earnest interpretational differences. And yes, that includes room for the scriptural justification of assorted personal, cultural, tribal, political and economic biases. Say what you will about the postmodern quacks who followed in Derrida's footsteps, the Frenchman (who, being from North Africa, was surely familiar with Islamic methods of scriptural reasoning) made some striking observations about the uncertainty of a single fixed interpretation for any given text.

The historical yoking of Islam to temporal politics from the outset has been, at best, a hedge against this tendency toward anarchic theological diversity. But as we can see in Iraq, aside from the big divisions (Sunni, Shi'ia, Sufi, etc.) there are countless smaller rival factions within the larger divisions. Thanks to the enlightenment influence on the political foundations of the United States, when a Baptist congration splits over a doctinal dispute, they divide themselves and go their separate ways. In Iraq, they split up, arm themselves, and proceed to kill one another. So let's not be so quick to throw the enlightenment baby out with the bathwater.

Obviously the aim of the general jihadist movement is to be "the last man standing" and impose a singular, definitive interpretation of Islam. But it is by no means evident that the individuals comprising the asymmetrical jihadist groups are anything approaching unified in their interpretations. Nor, even if one group should finally prevail over the entire Muslim world, is it clear that it could maintain its hegemony any longer than Cromwell's protectorate in England. While it existed, it would invariably expend most of its energies suppressing the Muslim dissent within its own political borders.

Yes, jihadists are a problem. But they are mostly a big distraction from the West's considerable home-grown difficulties.


M_David
September 12, 2007 2:37 PM

I don't think M_David suggested the clash was between Luddites and Geeks

Thanks, Loudon. My division is between:

a) people who seek an individualistic culture (modernists & feminists)

b) those who seek a culture where individuals are inextricably linked to family and and God-centered community (traditionalists).

This has nothing to do with technology.

But one of the reasons some think traditionalists are Luddites is that they are not afraid to reject technologies they find damaging to the community, family (say Amish with cell phones and cars, or cons who reject abortion or IVF).

However, modernists are progressive and utopian and look to some 'future' in which our problems will be solved by technology. In a sense, science becomes a religion, their hope.

Traditinalists see children and culture as their hope and future. Modernists cannot, because they see the world through individualistic eyes, and can only point to 'progress' as their hope, so the kids must always 'alright' regardless of facts.

Alicia
September 12, 2007 2:38 PM

I tried posting this earlier, but had a problem because of the link I included, so I'll try again.

For a fascinating "Free for All" about Europe and multiculturalism that was ignited by French philosopher Pascal Bruckner's defense of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, visit the following link:

http://www.signandsight.com/features/1167.html

Brad
September 12, 2007 3:00 PM

Well, M_David, I think you only make my point, that modern "traditionalists" simply define themselves as anything they want to be at any given time, giving and taking this, giving and taking that as it suits them, and define "modernists" as only some sort of Manichean opposite.

"Modernists cannot...because they see see the world through individualistic eyes, and can only point to 'progress' as their hope...see children and culture as their hope and future."? Where do these cartoon creations, and by the same token their Manichean opposites, even exist?

But if it works for you, more power to you.

Erin Manning
September 12, 2007 3:33 PM

M_David, when Brad writes, "But if it works for you, more power to you." it seems humorous to me that he doesn't appear to realize he's chanting the very mantra of utilitarian individualism that you're decrying.

I'm with you, M_David. "Progress" may be, as e.e. cummings put it, a "comfortable disease," but the exaltation of it as a good in itself is still a disease.

M_David
September 12, 2007 3:35 PM

If any one of these trends changes, then the whole "Islamic Europe" scare disappears in a puff of smoke.

Rich, a few issues with your analysis:

1) we have never seen a feminist, liberal culture like Europe replace itself. No "cycle" here. A culture can't just decide to start having kids, no matter what the government does. Yes, if Europe decides to ditch feminism for traditional family life, sure, they would start having kids again. But there is no precedent for women working jobs and having enough kids to replace the population.

2) it really doesn't matter if Muslims fall into the same trap and quit having kids. Then they too will vanish. There are cultures right now showing great growth in population. Those people will be the ones who fill Europe. Anyone who thinks the whole world is going to go extinct along with feminist Europe needs to brush up on their Darwinian theory. Somebody is gonna breed.

Where you are going wrong is that you think demographics can turn on a dime and there is no cultural reason for population decline - it just "happens". We know through observation both assumptions are false.

Populations are quite predictable (except downward via genocide or disease). You can't just say hey I'm gonna start cranking out kids en-mass. People aren't built that way, trends happen over many generations and are long term. Even tiny "baby-booms" like the 1950's are just that, tiny, and little blips in overall trendlines of population. We know quite well what populations will be by 2050; this isn't some great leap of faith.

As for who will replace Europe if Muslims don't: UN Data shows Africa currently at 905m, and they will be around 1936m by 2050 (this is factoring in current losses from disease and war). Their TFR is around 5 kids per woman right now, and holding fairly steady in many of these countries.

Trust me, somebody is gonna be around to fill Europe with people. Even millions of years ago humans fought Neandrethals for Europe. It's valuable real estate. The arrogance of white Europeans thinking they will rule the land forever even as they shrink simply blows my mind.

Brad
September 12, 2007 3:50 PM

"M_David, when Brad writes, "But if it works for you, more power to you." it seems humorous to me that he doesn't appear to realize he's chanting the very mantra of utilitarian individualism that you're decrying."

Ah, Erin, good-Christian-who-talks-about-me-but-has-forsworn-talking-to-me, I was simply trying to be charitably polite. And, whether I'm "chanting the very mantra of utilitarian individualism that [he's] decrying", I've got to say I do support as a higher value over all our political system that allows each of us to pursue these matters as we will, without his church deciding I cannot, or my family deciding you cannot.

But I was thinking, because I ran across a situation like this recently, what happens when someone spurns his family in favor of his church co-congregants who he installs in their place in his life?

Traditionalist? Modernist? What?

M_David
September 12, 2007 4:08 PM

what happens when someone spurns his family in favor of his church co-congregants...Traditionalist? Modernist? What?

I said God-centered community, Brad. This is a worldview, not a membership organisation...I never mentioned church congregants at all. A culture can have different denominations and the same general God-centered worldview (America circa 1800).

Breathe deep, relax. It's like my post is a red flag and you are the bull.

And I don't mind a lack of charity, just lack of comprehension. ;-)

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 4:09 PM

Good question, Brad, and since when do the RRers decry individualism anyways? I thought that was their mantra? Especially as an afront to anything "social."

Brad
September 12, 2007 4:21 PM

"Good question, Brad, and since when do the RRers decry individualism anyways? I thought that was their mantra? Especially as an afront to anything "social.""

Oh, they're trying to talk about abstract radical individualism, which is a logically inevitable precipitate of the modern individual-relation-to-God paradigm, which succeeded the prior individual-relationship-to-tribal-relationship-to-God paradigm.

No matter how much they may wish to feel virtuously superior to the rest of us, I just don't see how they can wish themselves back through that historical-cultural transformation, at least not without replacing the succeeding paradigm with the former.

But as I mentioned on another thread, on my last day at the office I'm down with donning the penis gourd there and dancing myself. ;-)

Brad
September 12, 2007 4:30 PM

"b) those who seek a culture where individuals are inextricably linked to family and and God-centered community (traditionalists)."

"I said God-centered community, Brad. This is a worldview, not a membership organisation...I never mentioned church congregants at all."

My apologies for misunderstanding your unspoken distinction between worldview and social community, on this blog in particular. ;-)

But if my question remains salient:

"But I was thinking, because I ran across a situation like this recently, what happens when someone spurns his family in favor of his church co-congregants who he installs in their place in his life?

Traditionalist? Modernist? What?"

you remain free to address it.

aaron
September 12, 2007 4:34 PM

I'm with you, M_David. "Progress" may be, as e.e. cummings put it, a "comfortable disease," but the exaltation of it as a good in itself is still a disease.

Yes, I'd definitely call the hope of improving the human condition in the future, which includes your children as well as mine, a disease.

That was sarcasm by the way.

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 4:42 PM

And diseases must be decried, comfortable or not.

Heifer

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 4:45 PM

Rather "dis" ease, that is.

The Mechanical Eye
September 12, 2007 4:52 PM

...decline-and-fall enthusiasts like me...

This, and the ensuing comments on the dreaded Euarabia, are magnificently fantastical. One imagines Rod and these "tradcons" daydreaming about themselves and their intellectual heirs being remembered as the St. Augustines of this era, while Rome quite literally gets sacked by the Islamic barbarians.

This vision doesn't excite me, it bothers me, and even if I don't think it'll happen I'm troubled by those who all but wish it to happen.

DU

Rich
September 12, 2007 4:56 PM

M_David
You didn't touch the immigration argument. Without mass immigration there is no Islamization of Europe. The numbers just aren't there otherwise. As for the rest of your argument....

we have never seen a feminist, liberal culture like Europe replace itself.

But we have also never seen a feminist, liberal culture like Europe. We don't know whether that kind of culture can replace itself long term, because we don't know whether it will remain a feminist, liberal culture. They don't have to "ditch feminism for traditional family life" in order to have a higher TFR. They just have to decide they want kids. Cultures change rapidly. The culture you see in Europe was largely created in the last 40 years, and could be dramatically different in another 40. The people who created the current culture won't be around then.

But two other things you said really make me think you are off the mark. You said:

A culture can't just decide to start having kids, no matter what the government does.

and in the same post you referred to the 1950's baby boom as "tiny". I think that is silly. The U.S. baby boom was massive. Total live births almost doubled in only 15 years. We still haven't reached the total annual birth rate of the late 1950's even though our population has almost doubled. TFR doubled in many European countries during the same period. If you don't think a culture can just "decide" to start having kids, then look again at population and birth charts for the 1940-1960 time frame. It wasn't a tiny change.

The Muslim population of Europe is so small that a slight uptick in European TFR along with immigration restrictions would push off the Islamization of Europe indefinitely. Birth rates matter, but so due overall numbers. It's hard to out-reproduce the native population of a continent when you make up less than 10% of that continent. And if there is a pan-European backlash against immigration, then African TFR is irrelevant too.

Erin Manning
September 12, 2007 6:07 PM

Brad said, "Ah, Erin, good-Christian-who-talks-about-me-but-has-forsworn-talking-to-me, I was simply trying to be charitably polite."

If you recall, in our previous conversation I said that *if* you misrepresented my words, *then* I would stop talking to you. The "If" part of that equation is up to you. I have no problem engaging in honest dialog with anyone.

Aaron said, "Yes, I'd definitely call the hope of improving the human condition in the future, which includes your children as well as mine, a disease...That was sarcasm by the way."

Aaron, all due respect, but do we automatically define "progress" as "the hope of improving the human condition in the future"? I'd quibble with that definition: Progress has given us, for instance, the automobile, which has improved transportation, but which has cemented our dependence on fossil fuels and contributed to environmental hazards, and has also saddled us with a huge and crumbling infrastructure of roads and highways (and bridges) which are going to be increasingly expensive and difficult to maintain and repair. Progress has given us the ability to build huge corporate-owned big-box stores which have run mom and pop businesses into the ground; these stores require massive amounts of energy to build and operate and are at least partly responsible for the slow death of American manufacturing, since their ceaseless demand for lower inventory costs and higher annual profits has caused them to become huge importers of goods made extremely cheaply in the third-world, many under conditions troubling to anyone concerned about human rights and the welfare of all human beings.

Progress has a price, just like everything. Some of the reasons we're headed for a clash with the Islamic world is that in our hedonistic pursuit of endless "progress" for ourselves and our country we haven't been overly concerned about the ultimate costs.

Charles Cosimano
September 12, 2007 6:21 PM

It can get a lot stranger. Think of a scenario where the Muslims have taken Western Europe but the US, Israel and Eastern Europe (including Russia) have divided up the Middle East.

Scenario two: The Jihadist threaten Rome and Paris, in turn, threatens Mecca. (France has had them nukuler weppens for a long time now.)

Scenario three (hang onto your hair): Germany remembers that it has some plans for getting rid of large numbers of people hidden away somewhere.

Hang onto your seats folks. The ride is just starting!

Brad
September 12, 2007 6:21 PM

"If you recall, in our previous conversation I said that *if* you misrepresented my words, *then* I would stop talking to you. The "If" part of that equation is up to you."

Be still, my beating heart, all is not lost! ;-)

Mark
September 12, 2007 6:28 PM

Did anyone else read this piece and feel like Pinkerton got a little too abstract? By the end, I think the Tolkien analogy had been overstretched and his commentary was too far removed from reality to be practical. As Rod noted, his entire proposal is dependent first upon some major changes in the mindset of Wester citizens in the first place. Perhaps he could have devoted more time to discussing how to bring that about first.

Erin Manning
September 12, 2007 7:02 PM

Thanks, Brad, I needed that! :)

One thing, though: it occurred to me that it's a bit too easy for each of us to demonize the viewpoints of the other. You made a good point above when you raised the dilemma of the person who puts some aspect of the community, church culture et al. ahead of the family. I would reject that if the family was functional and worthy of protection, but I've known people who pretty much had to "give up" on any regular contact with extremely dysfunctional family members and find community outside the family, which would seem to demolish the tidy little categories that can be set up.

I guess what I'd say here is that a healthy individualism is one that is centered ultimately on realities larger and more enduring than the individual, but that some of the unhealthy individualism observable in modern society is one that tends to elevate the individual above all other possible realities, and which seeks its own benefits, pleasures etc. even when these are openly detrimental to the family, the larger community, and society as a whole.

I'd be interested in whether you agree or disagree either that this exists, or that this is actually unhealthy.

M_David
September 12, 2007 7:27 PM

M_David...Without mass immigration there is no Islamization of Europe. The numbers just aren't there otherwise.

Rich, my numbers are clear and easy to understand.

The current TFR of Europe is 1.4 (UN 2004). And this includes all of children of immigrants, which means the native European TFR is actually much lower.

It's really not complex. If you don't have 2.1 children per woman, your population shinks. You can do the math as well as I and see when Europe becomes sparse enough to not matter anymore. Of course, Europe itself won't depopulate: other folk will move in. For example,

Europe's population:

728m in 2004
653m by 2050 (UN 2004 proj)

And this 653m projection is only this high because immigration is factored in, which must happen to sustain the economy.

So...it won't be white native Europeans who own that landmass soon. It really doesn't matter who comes in to take over, Islamic folk or African folk.

Peter
September 12, 2007 8:19 PM

Not to be stoking paranoia but how long are white native Americans going to be owning their landmass? Nearly half of under 5s are non white.

M_David
September 12, 2007 8:27 PM

They don't have to "ditch feminism for traditional family life" in order to have a higher TFR. They just have to decide they want kids.

I think this is kind of funny. Only a person raised in an individualist society could ever think such a thing. It's like saying all a bum has to do to make the big bucks is "decide" he wants the money. No, he has a big lifestyle change ahead of him.

How much time and treasure a couple might invest in children is not made in a vacuum, and it's a lifetime commitment. Children have a high lifestyle cost, and you need two parents to make it happen in quanitity and quality. Young punks rasied as individuals don't just "decide" to be parents and go on to make it happen. It takes training in the hard knocks of family life, and in Europe most women don't even know how to have large families anymore, let alone want them.


The U.S. baby boom was massive. Total live births almost doubled in only 15 years. We still haven't reached the total annual birth rate of the late 1950's even though our population has almost doubled.

The baby-boom never even cracked a TFR=4, and it vanished to below replacement within a generation. I'm sorry, but that's tiny. The only reason we got moderately large populations was from the existing population; the baby boom piggy-backed on many generations of TFRs=6+ that were standard hundreds of years ago.

As a point of reference: Africa - the whole da*n continent! - has a TFR=5 today, and has for a long time. We never even got to 4 during a tiny anomoly caused by a war! Dude, that's tiny when graded on a curve.


If you don't think a culture can just "decide" to start having kids, then look again at population and birth charts for the 1940-1960 time frame. It wasn't a tiny change.

People back in the 1950s had intact families and were raised in a family-friendly culture. They could decide to have large families, as feminism had not yet shattered the family. It was a different era; you had the human capital to work with for raising 4 kid families in quantity if you wanted.

If you doubt how different the world was for mothers in 1950, just listen to how liberals rant and rave about how terrible '50s were for women's rights. And from a feminist's perpective it was. A woman's place was in the home, and a male breadwinner might be paid more for the same job as his woman coworker. Families, mothers, and children were protected. Something like this is what European culture would have to absorb in order to have kids in quantity. Fat chance of that!

Brad
September 12, 2007 8:30 PM

"I guess what I'd say here is that a healthy individualism is one that is centered ultimately on realities larger and more enduring than the individual, but that some of the unhealthy individualism observable in modern society is one that tends to elevate the individual above all other possible realities, and which seeks its own benefits, pleasures etc. even when these are openly detrimental to the family, the larger community, and society as a whole.

I'd be interested in whether you agree or disagree either that this exists, or that this is actually unhealthy."


The term for what you're describing may at some points be more properly called narcissism, not individualism; I'm currently watching such a narcissist online destroy her entire world, family and children included.

I've also remarked on the more molar evolution of abstract radical individualism out of the historically more recent personal god paradigm.

The practical consequences of either benign, or as you put it, healthy individualism ("I am an individual only insofar as I am differentiated BY a larger group, AS an indiviual.") or pathological, radical individualism ("My individualism is solely and uniquely my own creation, ex nihilo.") obtaining, or whichever spot along the spectrum between the two one actually inhabits, seems to me to be a function of, against an unarguable and now inescapable background of a "modern", personal-relationship-to-a-god paradigm shift now several thousand years old (erupting sometime between the ancient tribal Hebrews and the early Greeks), the particular dialectical tuning of the individual's individual-group (marriage/family/church/polity/corporation/etc.) bow tension, as it were.

I think that's why, the older I get, the more I appreciate the U.S. political system, at least as it ideally should be, as sheer genius: it's designed precisely to deliver a dialectical tension/balance between the value/rights of the individual and the value/rights of the larger group he is both defined by and defines.

Rich
September 12, 2007 8:38 PM

...immigration is factored in, which must happen to sustain the economy.

Sure, just look at Japan. They have a TFR of 1.29 and falling, and they have instituted massive guest worker programs to help sustain their economy. Oh wait, no they haven't. Total foreign national population in Japan is about 2 million. About half of those are students. The Japanese government has tightened immigration regulations in the last 3 years.

Because of the one-child policy, China has a TFR around 1.7. The average age in China will surpass the U.S. by 2015 and Europe by 2025. At what point do you expect China to begin importing millions of workers? It's not likely because it is culturally anathema to them.

Depopulation
without immigration could lead to more automation, higher wages, and cheaper real estate. All these in turn could feasibly make family formation more affordable and spur another baby boom. Or not. Who knows? Higher wages and more available land did appear in much of Western Europe following the Black Death. Depopulation can have positives for those still around.

But here's my point. China and Japan are examples of very large countries facing the same demographic issue as Europe. They have not turned to mass immigration as a fix. You say it "must happen". Well, then explain why it must, and explain why China and Japan will begin importing workers as well.

Franklin Evans
September 12, 2007 9:19 PM

Brad, my hero. ;-)

[The U.S. political system is] designed precisely to deliver a dialectical tension/balance between the value/rights of the individual and the value/rights of the larger group he is both defined by and defines.

I would submit that capitalism stands at the focal point of that tension. General economic success (that being the only reliable source of revenue) is more important than the accumulation of great wealth in a small group (as also proven by the general failures of nearly every economic model since feudalism); this is balanced by the advent of the narcissistic few who actually do accumulate great wealth under capitalism. Pride in being a good provider has become superceded by the vicarious pleasure in watching conspicuous consumption whilst fantasizing about doing it oneself.

As in any dynamic system, it works best when the opposing forces are in balanced conflict. I further submit that if there hadn't also been a growing disparity between the upper 5% and the rest of us, the nation's morale might have been able to sustain support for (for example) the Iraq war longer than it has. There is no better propaganda than prosperity, and no worse blow to morale than economic uncertainty.

Oh, by the way: the US Patriot Act is a direct attack on the "dialectical tension/balance" that Brad describes so well.

Rich
September 12, 2007 9:34 PM

OK, you still haven't made a single argument on immigration other than it "must" happen. But let me address your new ones.

First, I was arguing with your usage of "traditional family life". It just isn't necessary for high birth rates. You keep plugging away at the TFR of 5+ in sub-Saharan Africa. Look a little deeper and you'll find that some of the highest birthrates in Africa are in areas with matriarchal communities that don't resemble traditional Western family structures at all.

In fact, some of the highest birthrates in the U.S. are also amongst single mothers. Two parents may be needed for quality, but not quantity. If those "young punks" you mention decide they want babies, then they will have them. Often times they will have them without "deciding". We aren't talking about the best or wisest way to raise a family. We're talking numbers. Read Theodore Dalrymple. Lots of people in Europe are popping out babies without inculcating the values that you think are necessary. Right now they are a minority, but it may not stay that way. Reproduction only requires will.

As for the baby boom, you are still missing my point. The rate is important but so are the absolute numbers. I know a 3+ TFR is much lower than Africa's. But if native Europe had a 3+ TFR for one generation then dropped back to 1.5, that would increase the overall population enough to push back any talk of Islamization for a couple more generations. The baby boom in the U.S. added at least 1 million more people a year for almost two decades than you would otherwise expect from prior trends. Just reproducing at replacement level would mean another almost 1 million a year when those people hit child bearing age. And that's pretty much what we saw with the so-called "Echo Boom" beginning in the late 1970's.

Cultures change. Sometimes they change rapidly. The culture in Europe and the U.S. could become natalist very quickly without a reversion to 1950's norms.

Loudon is a Fool
September 12, 2007 9:35 PM

The practical consequences of either benign, or as you put it, healthy individualism ("I am an individual only insofar as I am differentiated BY a larger group, AS an indiviual.") or pathological, radical individualism ("My individualism is solely and uniquely my own creation, ex nihilo.") obtaining, or whichever spot along the spectrum between the two one actually inhabits, seems to me to be a function of, against an unarguable and now inescapable background of a "modern", personal-relationship-to-a-god paradigm shift now several thousand years old (erupting sometime between the ancient tribal Hebrews and the early Greeks), the particular dialectical tuning of the individual's individual-group (marriage/family/church/polity/corporation/etc.) bow tension, as it were.

And I believe our education like such as South Africa and such as the Iraq.

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 10:11 PM

M-David, just rest assured that the Irish are very, very good at making babies.

Anonymous
September 12, 2007 10:21 PM

"I know a 3+ TFR is much lower than Africa's. But if native Europe had a 3+ TFR for one generation..."

Maybe it's a goldfish bowl syndrome -- compare the SIZE of Africa's land mass with that of Europe.....

M_David
September 12, 2007 10:38 PM

M-David, just rest assured that the Irish are very, very good at making babies.

My friend, you are living in the past. Irish TFR=1.9 and dropping like a stone. I've been to the island and seen it myself.

----------

OK, you still haven't made a single argument on immigration other than it "must" happen.

Rich!

Let me repeat one more time: a TFRpopulation loss. Without adding more people somehow, eventually you will have zero population. Put a hole in a bucket, the water runs out.

So if you have a TFR

M_David
September 12, 2007 10:43 PM

M-David, just rest assured that the Irish are very, very good at making babies.

My friend, you are living in the past. Irish TFR=1.9 and dropping like a stone. I've been to the island and seen it myself.

----------

OK, you still haven't made a single argument on immigration other than it "must" happen.

Rich!

Let me repeat one more time: a TFRpopulation loss. Without adding more people somehow, eventually you will have zero population. Put a hole in a bucket, the water runs out.

So if you have a TFR

M_David
September 12, 2007 10:46 PM

The computer ate my post above. Once again,

...a TFR less than 2.1 means a population loss. Without adding more people somehow, eventually you will have zero population. Put a hole in a bucket, the water runs out.

TFR below replacement gives a government two options: import or vanish. Somehow, I don't think they will choose the last.

Erin Manning
September 12, 2007 11:23 PM

Brad, this is interesting: "The practical consequences of either benign, or as you put it, healthy individualism ("I am an individual only insofar as I am differentiated BY a larger group, AS an indiviual.") or pathological, radical individualism ("My individualism is solely and uniquely my own creation, ex nihilo.") obtaining, or whichever spot along the spectrum between the two one actually inhabits, seems to me to be a function of, against an unarguable and now inescapable background of a "modern", personal-relationship-to-a-god paradigm shift now several thousand years old (erupting sometime between the ancient tribal Hebrews and the early Greeks), the particular dialectical tuning of the individual's individual-group (marriage/family/church/polity/corporation/etc.) bow tension, as it were."

Can you explain it further? If a personal relationship to "a god" (or, as I would put it, to God) is beneficial to society in helping to maintain that stable but dynamic tension between the individual's needs and that of the various groups you mention, wouldn't it be pragmatic for a state to encourage religions that incorporate that vision purely on utilitarian grounds?

In other words, aren't you, in effect, positing that the social structures arising from religions that in some sense encapsulate this view will be more stable and less likely to fall prey to worldviews that subjugate the individual to the belief system (like Islam) on the one hand, and worldviews that decay and fragment into the "pathological individualism" you describe on the other?

It seems to me you've just made a pretty good case, in a purely civic sense, for a Judeo/Christian civilization.

M_David
September 12, 2007 11:42 PM

Rich,

...you'll find that some of the highest birthrates in Africa are in areas with matriarchal communities

Matriarchal is a debatable term here. They certainly are not western, but they are very pro-parent, pro-child cultures where motherhood is considered the highest calling for a woman. Feminists are scorned. Men are considered powerful if they have lots of kids. They are the opposite of Europe. And most importantly, Africa is not Europe. It takes thousands of years to create cultures like Africa has. They might fall apart quickly, but complex social cultures are not built in a day. Europe's only hope is to return to something close to her roots, or vanish.


In fact, some of the highest birthrates in the U.S. are also amongst single mothers.

Rich, I think you just made that up. Last I read unmarried women make up about 33% of all births, which would put them below the average fertility. Data, please.


Two parents may be needed for quality, but not quantity. If those "young punks" you mention decide they want babies, then they will have them.

Ah, but they are not, are they? Most women want babies, but few are willing to bear them in this family-hostile climate. Women are not irrational actors; they do what is in their own best interest. Having children in this day and age is not, as we can see from the birth rates.


We aren't talking about the best or wisest way to raise a family. We're talking numbers. Read Theodore Dalrymple.

Sure. Rich, one more time: the European TFR=1.4 and is falling. These are the numbers on the ground. There are NOT "lots of people in Europe are popping out babies". Could they? You say yes, but I say no or they would be already. Something is stopping them.

I get your point on the baby boom. I just doubt by using the human capital we have from the MTV generation we could have another baby boom. I just can't see it happening without force.


Cultures change. Sometimes they change rapidly. The culture in Europe and the U.S. could become natalist very quickly without a reversion to 1950's norms.

Look, I agree cultures can implode overnight. I don't think they can grow overnight without the human capital needed. And why would they? As you said, people don't add up the population numbers when they plan their families.

Rich
September 12, 2007 11:54 PM

M_David
Yes, you are absolutely correct about TFR below replacement if that trend continued indefinitely. I think that's the root of our disagreement. You can't imagine that native Europeans will ever reproduce above TFR. I can't imagine that they will stay below TFR indefinitely.

Larry Parker
September 12, 2007 11:56 PM

Franklin:

Don't get me started on Tolkien (particularly The Hobbit). People have irrational attachments to the man, IMHO, as the record box office receipts for the three LOTR movies showed. I once was verbally gang-tackled in my "Literature of Fantasy" class as an undergrad for daring to even suggest that J.R.R. wasn't the second coming.

M_David:

I should have formally protested your characterization of liberals as "anti-Western values" before, and do now. Forget Americans -- was Gladstone against Western values?

But I will give you your due elsewhere.

On this question of birth replacement rates -- and red and blue states -- you have a point. Numerous U.S. studies have indicated that people who consider themselves politically conservative, for reasons of moral belief generally and their (related) lesser use of birth control specifically, have larger families than people who consider themselves liberals.

So the ultimate political fate of the U.S. (I'll only go that far, though you would call it a cultural fate) will depend on whether liberals recruit the children of conservative parents to switch sides at a far higher rate than conservatives are able to appeal to liberals' children.

Even if it's break-even, you're right, Karl Rove may yet get his dreams of a permanent Republican majority. (Though I still doubt it.)

Franklin Evans
September 13, 2007 12:15 AM

It's okay, Larry. My attachment is rational, mostly. Tolkien has been overanalysed a few times over. All I'm asking is that you try not to judge his work as you have. He said himself that his myth making was for its own sake, and should not be taken as allegory to any specific milieu or context. Mostly, he wanted people who would speak the languages he invented, so he went about creating them and giving them reasons to speak. :-)

Brad
September 13, 2007 2:39 AM

"It seems to me you've just made a pretty good case, in a purely civic sense, for a Judeo/Christian civilization."

No, Erin, although you may have, for yourself, with your reformulation

"If a personal relationship to "a god" (or, as I would put it, to God) is beneficial to society in helping to maintain that stable but dynamic tension between the individual's needs and that of the various groups you mention"

of the conceptual phrases I used. Your reformulation is known as sophistry. For doing so, if having done so mendaciously, not merely mistakenly, Erin's stated principles require Erin to no longer speak with Erin about what Brad was talking about until she straightens up. :-) You then went on to try to utilize this poorly compounded sophistry to partisan advantage to try to objectively justify your religion as superior to both Islam and radical individualism. This reliance on objective epistemology over faith is known as heresy. ;-)

What I actually said was the personal-relationship-to-god (contrasted, in an earlier post, with a personal-relationship-to-god-mediated-only-through-a-tribal-relationship-to-god) was the basis of modern, nihilistic, abstract individualism, the thread topic under discussion.

"A personal relationship to God" alone may describe Erin, or it may describe Son of Sam; the latter is not necessarily beneficial to society.

What I said was the relationship of the individual to a group mitigates the inherent tendency toward the nihilistic fallacy of radical individualism--the self-created individual--that obtains when the "god" suddenly disappears from the personal-relationship-to-god relationship, such as when there is any collapse of a personal-relationship-to-god faith. There is no logical necessity that any personal god actually has or has not "died" simply because man does or does not think he has, but the consequent pathologies that result from subtracting such a god from these types of formative equations obtain nonetheless.

I also said that, for a healthy individual, one defined as recognizing he was individuated only with respect to a group that recognized him as being uniquely individuated, the healthy relationship to that group appeared to me to be generally dialectical, under a dynamic, balanced tension, collapsing neither toward the pole of pure, e.g., radical, individualism and nor towards its opposite, immanent hive-consciousness.

From what I discussed, however, Islam and Christianity are perfectly interchangeable: the same implicit dynamics of radical individualism are birthed by each, for the same reason.

Peter
September 13, 2007 5:26 AM

The Irish 1.9 may be sub replacement but then so has Americas since circa 1980 (anyone got a good url for tfr over times for a wide spread of countries). Even the current rate of 2.09 may be sub replacement since the replacement rate varies between countries and over time.

Rombald
September 13, 2007 6:04 AM

> Sure, just look at Japan. They have a TFR of 1.29 and falling, and they have instituted massive guest worker programs to help sustain their economy. Oh wait, no they haven't. Total foreign national population in Japan is about 2 million. About half of those are students. The Japanese government has tightened immigration regulations in the last 3 years.

> Because of the one-child policy, China has a TFR around 1.7. The average age in China will surpass the U.S. by 2015 and Europe by 2025. At what point do you expect China to begin importing millions of workers? It's not likely because it is culturally anathema to them.

> Depopulation
> without immigration could lead to more automation, higher wages, and cheaper real estate. All these in turn could feasibly make family formation more affordable and spur another baby boom. Or not. Who knows? Higher wages and more available land did appear in much of Western Europe following the Black Death. Depopulation can have positives for those still around.

> But here's my point. China and Japan are examples of very large countries facing the same demographic issue as Europe. They have not turned to mass immigration as a fix. You say it "must happen". Well, then explain why it must, and explain why China and Japan will begin importing workers as well.

Rich - these are good points. I don't think Islamic immigration into Europe has much to do with the low birth rate. I think it's to do with (i) the boss class wanting cheap wages, and (ii) intellectuals and other creeps who are too cowardly to say that Islam is disgusting.

You Americans complain about Europe's low birth rate, but you forget how overpopulated we are. Much of Europe, especially England, Italy and the Rhine Basin, has a population density massively greater than anywhere in N. America.

Rob Grano
September 13, 2007 7:23 AM

"Forget Americans -- was Gladstone against Western values?"

Gladstone was obviously not the same kind of 'liberal' as today's left-wingers. Traditional conservatives actually have a lot in common with so-called 'classical liberals,' but I'm not sure if there are really many classical liberals left.

"From what I discussed, however, Islam and Christianity are perfectly interchangeable: the same implicit dynamics of radical individualism are birthed by each, for the same reason."

I think not, Brad, because the understanding of the nature of God isn't the same, and this has resulted in a huge difference in the historical flow of ideas related to both groups. It was a certain 'brand' of Christianity that devolved into radical individualism, and the opposing brands have fought against this devolution tooth and nail, seeing it as contrary to the true nature of Christianity. Many scholars have written on this subject, but I'd mention Louis Bouyer, Richard Weaver, and Marion Montgomery, for starters, as the ones I'm most familiar with.

Brad
September 13, 2007 8:28 AM

Oh, I can hardly blame your good scholars for wanting to and trying to sweep back the sea. It's simply that, when you hardwire individuality directly to the divine, you immediately and divinely elevate it above and beyond any other, necessary mediating establishment, and pathological mischief can then obtain from that special elevation.

If you have religious dogma that roots individuality and divine recognition of it only in the social mediation of individuality, and denies any hardwired elevation of individuality around such mediation by the divine, it may very well avoid sourcing such radical individualism as we are talking about.

I can't say there isn't a brand of Christianity that doesn't hold to this latter structural position, I just haven't heard of it. Certainly it wasn't among the massive rivers of Christianity, that in the world-spasms of the Enlightenment, Darwinism, etc., lost their hold on the public consciousness at large and so birthed the existentialist, radical individuality implicit within them.

But by all means, if you have a dogma that solves this problem, fix it.

Rob Grano
September 13, 2007 8:49 AM

"Certainly it wasn't among the massive rivers of Christianity, that in the world-spasms of the Enlightenment, Darwinism, etc., lost their hold on the public consciousness at large and so birthed the existentialist, radical individuality implicit within them."

Precisely. The culprit, according to Bouyer, Hart, Montgomery, Weaver et al. is the philosophical shift that occurred in the late Scholastic period, the shift from the dominance of realism to that of nominalism and voluntarism. So one would have to look for answers in places where nominalism and voluntarism took no root, and I can think of only two places in Christianity where this did not occur: Eastern Orthodoxy (patristic Christianity) and Thomistic Catholicism.

John E.
September 13, 2007 8:50 AM

>>>You Americans complain about Europe's low birth rate


watch that broad generalization there, bucko. I, for one, think Europe's birthrate is Europe's business, not mine.

Franklin Evans
September 13, 2007 9:13 AM

From my lofty perch, observing the interactions between conflicting mindsets and worldviews, I have made a startling discovery... and no, not just now. I just didn't have an appropriate context in which to inject it.

From the outside, Christians seem to be saying that they are accountable only to God; salvation is the key to this external POV. From the outside (and, to be honest, from the inside as well) modern paganism seems to be saying that the here and now is what's important, and the rules and restrictions of society are meant to be bent or broken.

Please note, I am painting a picture based on false impressions, and doing so deliberately.

Glossing over the necessary discussion of details, the difference can be summed up thus: Christians hold themselves accountable to God first, then to their fellows. Pagans hold themselves accountable, period, and make their fellows the top priority. Christians find the Pagan "lack of divine authority" reprehensible at best. Pagans find the Christian approach cruel and counter-intuitive.

It is my fervent wish that each side could shut up and really listen to the other side. Much can be learned, methinks.

Anonymous
September 13, 2007 9:45 AM

""Certainly it wasn't among the massive rivers of Christianity, that in the world-spasms of the Enlightenment, Darwinism, etc., lost their hold on the public consciousness at large and so birthed the existentialist, radical individuality implicit within them."

Precisely. The culprit, according to Bouyer, Hart, Montgomery, Weaver et al. is the philosophical shift that occurred in the late Scholastic period, the shift from the dominance of realism to that of nominalism and voluntarism. So one would have to look for answers in places where nominalism and voluntarism took no root, and I can think of only two places in Christianity where this did not occur: Eastern Orthodoxy (patristic Christianity) and Thomistic Catholicism."

Well, if that's the case (and I don't know either way), there ya go, then: new, resurrected, now radical individualism pathology-immune dominant Christian worldview, here we come. Okay by me.

Brad
September 13, 2007 9:55 AM

"It is my fervent wish that each side could shut up and really listen to the other side. Much can be learned, methinks."

Hence the value of the independently established U.S. political space (or its equivalent) as the only sort of practical neutral ground where this can occur on an indefinite, ongoing basis.

Rob Grano
September 13, 2007 9:57 AM

You really should read Weaver's 'Ideas Have Consequences', Brad, if you haven't done so. He didn't write the book from a specifically Christian POV, but more from a general sort of Platonic perspective.

Brad
September 13, 2007 10:20 AM

"You really should read Weaver's 'Ideas Have Consequences', Brad, if you haven't done so. He didn't write the book from a specifically Christian POV, but more from a general sort of Platonic perspective."

Thanks; I might.

Franklin Evans
September 13, 2007 10:54 AM

Rob, Brad, while the vocabulary will be prompting many readers to gnash their teeth and keep a dictionary site open in a separate browser, I want to express my gratitude for your exchange here.

Those who insist on labelling the US as Christian, post-Christian, dystopian from any cause, really don't get the value of neutral ground.

Brad
September 13, 2007 11:04 AM

"Rob, Brad,..."

Not at all, though I might have to concede the advantage to the estimable Rob to the extent that my college years might lie farther back in the mists of time.

Just don't go gettin' all gay (not that there's anything wrong with that) on me again, Franklin, by calling me your hero. ;-)

Rob Grano
September 13, 2007 12:51 PM

"I might have to concede the advantage to the estimable Rob to the extent that my college years might lie farther back in the mists of time."

So I've fooled some people into believing that I actually know what the heck I'm talking about.... ;-)

Erin Manning
September 13, 2007 1:31 PM

Brad, re: your 2:39 post, no sophistry was intended. I was trying to understand what you were saying, and I'm still trying. :)

It might help you to know that my education in philosophy is seriously deficient: in college when I was supposed to take an "Intro to Philosophy" course I signed up instead for a 400 level class on existentialism, which remains my sole formal incursion into philosophy. (It puts me at a disadvantage in combox conversations like this one; however, it made JPII's writings a lot easier to understand than they otherwise would have been.)

So I was honestly trying to break down your original post to see what it meant, and I still don't really get it. Here's why:

To begin with, you posit this "personal-God-paradigm shift" without really defining it or limiting it. Since it can be said, quite truly, that Judaism, Christianity, and Islam all see God as having a personal relationship with His creatures, it's hard to see whether you include one, some, or all of these in the "paradigm shift." However, if you're going to use the phrase "paradigm shift" to include something as ancient as Judaism, I'm not sure if it's possible to observe every monotheistic society which has arisen since then as a homogeneous unit, which would seem to limit the usefulness of the phrase. The same objection goes for Christianity, too, because as Rob pointed out in his 8:49 post we've had a few paradigm shifts of our own, there, and it would seem to be an oversimplification to see all Christians as identical in this sense.

On the other hand, if this "personal-God-paradigm-shift" refers to the arise of forms of Christianity which see the Church as a purely spiritual reality requiring nothing from them, which further sees Man relating to God without any need for mediation other than that which arises in the spiritual realm, I might tend to agree, on the same grounds as Rob. In other words, what would distinguish Judaism and the two most ancient forms of Christianity from the later iterations would be the perceived need for the Church as both a mediating agent and the proper place for the sacrifices which are central to most religions; both Orthodoxy and Catholicism are still religions based on the notion of a perpetual sacrifice, while later forms of Christianity have tended to move away from that understanding.

However, without knowing how you define the "paradigm shift" I'm left wondering what you think it means, what you think its effects on society have been, and what you think the remedy is. For instance, if you see Christianity as leading inexorably to a radical individualism which is destructive for society, does that mean you admire those among the ancient pagan societies that worshiped various gods who were not only not personal, but who tended to be vindictive and demanding of unquestioning obedience to their representatives on earth, who were often the center of temporal power? Or, instead, do you admire the modern atheistic societies which tended to rule by force, and to try to replace religion with a belief system that was purely nationalistic in character? It doesn't seem like you would, but since I'm struggling to understand your point I can't see at all where you are going with this.

Brad
September 13, 2007 2:37 PM

Erin, where I'm going, for the third time, is over the same ground I've gone twice before: a thought structure that welds individuality directly to the divine risks radical individualism if the god component collapses (leaving the component individuality hanging as divinely ordained, but without any remaining divine constrainst); or, come to think of it, worse if the individual comes to think of himself prior to any such collapse/disappearance as solipsistically uniquely beloved of the god. A thought structure that makes individuality ultimately a dialectically defined function of a group [an agnostic Bunlap penis gourd-wearing marching band and garden club, for example, or a theistic or otherwise spiritual church {or any other group(s)} whose members gain divine recognition of their individuality only by virtue of their prior, defining, dialectively interactive membership in whichever such group(s) define them], while it may be subject to world loss and alienation both individually and collectively if crisis strikes the group, spiritual, mundane, or otherwise, is unlikely to precipitate radical individualism/pathological solipsism, and particularly not any such radical individualism/pathological solipsism with any clinging suggestion of having been divinely bequeathed.

As to any ancient pagan societies or modern atheistic societies, any thoughts of those are completely eclipsed by my joy in believing you have not yet having either sexually molested nor hanged any of your children today. ;-)

Rob Grano
September 13, 2007 4:06 PM

Brad, I think you've actually made your thesis MORE difficult to understand here. Could you put it in educated layman's terms please?

Brad
September 13, 2007 4:52 PM

"Brad, I think you've actually made your thesis MORE difficult to understand here. Could you put it in educated layman's terms please?"

Sorry, maybe I just can't help burrowing deeper and unpacking more. ;-)

Anyway, these sort of abstractions aren't personally and practically tractable and are unlikely to be seized upon hereabouts in any event, even if they somehow remotely were. You grasp the concepts, the know the relevant particular religious dogmas far better than I. Please be my guest and them to Erin in terms she'll understand and be satisfied with alongside her existing beliefs.

Brad
September 13, 2007 4:54 PM

Arrghh. "...you know the relevant particular religious dogmas far better than I. Please be my guest and explain them to Erin in terms she'll understand and be satisfied with alongside her existing beliefs.

Erin Manning
September 13, 2007 5:49 PM

Well, Brad, the only thing I see in what you've written (bearing in mind my deficiencies in formal philosophical education) is the notion that religious individualism = bad, secular individualism = good. And since I reject that idea maybe it's not worth discussing further, particularly as this thread has now been buried in the near-oblivion of the weekly archive.

Brad
September 13, 2007 6:01 PM

"Well, Brad, the only thing I see in what you've written (bearing in mind my deficiencies in formal philosophical education) is the notion that religious individualism = bad, secular individualism = good."

That's why I didn't bother a fourth time. ;-)

Erin Manning
September 13, 2007 10:05 PM

"That's why I didn't bother a fourth time. ;-)"

Since each subsequent iteration of your post made it a little more incomprehensible than it had been before, that was probably a good idea.

Franklin Evans
September 13, 2007 10:12 PM

I may be able to hit this one. Brad will correct me if my "translation" loses something along the way.

Erin, start with the notion that when society makes rules (regardless of their source, secular or religious), it depends wholly on the individual to both agree to abide by those rules and to contribute to their enforcement amongst others. The peculiar variation on that which the founders of the US attempted (by some called the Great Experiment) was that the laws -- the formal codification of social rules -- are both formulated by the governed and enforced by the consent of the governed. The operant phrase is "no taxation without representation". Extend that beyond taxes. The Bill of Rights is directly dependent on that concept.

Religion, as a provider of social structure, approaches this concept in a different way, even while setting its sights on the very same goal: religion is not externally perpetuating. It cannot depend on converts for the simple reason that no outsider -- no one not brought up in the belief system -- can be trusted to preserve and convey it accurately to the next generation. Therefor, religion takes what I would call an opposite approach: rules are based on divine authority, and the individual obeys or is cast out.

The comparison point is this: radical individualism can be tolerated under the secular model we have in the US because there is a consensus. Break the law, go to jail. One of Brad's points, perhaps his main one, is that divine authority is abstract by comparison, can be used to override the objective aspects found in the secular model, and the crimes and atrocities from our history committed in the name of deity or with a religious group as the target are a direct result.

It is very important for me to acknowledge that similar results are also possible under the US secular model. They stain our history. It is not my intention to hold one model above another, except in agreement with our founders that the prior notions of the divine authority of monarchs was a dead end, and repeating those mistakes was something to be avoided at all costs. (Then they asked George Washington to be king. Very smart people are capable of being spectacularly stupid. The US was born, not on 7/04/1776, not when the British surrendered, but when George declined the offer and set them straight. ;-D )

Please understand that I am writing assertively, but I readily acknowledge that this is all arguable.

Brad, did I waste my time, or did I hit any marks? Erin, does that help?

Rob Grano
September 14, 2007 7:45 AM

My disagreement with Brad was over the idea that Christianity and Islam both posit the same approach to deity and individuality, thus when either of them in their religious aspect collapses, radical individualism and nihilism are the inevitable result.

My counter was that Christianity traditionally understood (and by 'traditionally' I mean in either its patristic or Thomist forms) does not have this individualistic component.

It is interesting in this regard that two of the most trenchant critics of radical individualism and nihilism have been fiction writers: Dostoevsky and Flannery O'Connor. The former was, of course, Russian Orthodox, and the latter, a Catholic Thomist.

Brad
September 14, 2007 8:29 AM

Oh, good grief.

The concept has always been simply this: individuality recognized as originating from a divinity prior to or over and above any other constitutions of individuality--for example, you all acknowledge Brad as an individual because because I am both one of you and not any of you--always contains the potential to collapse into radical individuality if the divine component disappears: the countervailing reality of the group to slap Brad upside the haid and say, "Boy, you dint create your own individuality, WE did!" has vanished.

When a god becomes the prime ordainer of my individuality, when I have individually recognized value as an individual independent of all other relationships I might have to the universe, when a god becomes my personal god, not my god by virtue of my membership in the tribe, when a god becomes my divine pocket pal, effectively I become a mini-god, like a divine "Mini Me".

If Maxi Me--my personally ordaining god--disappears for any reason--collapse of Christianity in the Enlightenment and thereafter because of its welding itself to the ambivalently multivalent value of "truth", guess who inherits the universe?

ME!!!! Radically, solipsistically, individualized ME!!!!*

Bow down to my unique and sole indivuality, you remainder of the universe, valuable only as matter to my whim!!!*

There is also a logical corollary precipitate to the radical individual, logically: the precipitate creature for whom the concept of individuality vanishes entirely: the progenitor of the Lumpenmensch--the Mass Man.

Welcome to post-Christian Mass Culture, populated by the dys-dialectically sundered Radical Individual and Mass Man, and their respective pathological pursuits.

*If necessary for the dense, this is dramatic logical hyperbole, not the feelings of Brad, his successors, or assigns.

Brad
September 14, 2007 9:20 AM

"Brad, did I waste my time, or did I hit any marks?"

Not with respect to the primary concept, but perhaps with respect to the extent the U.S. political system, in the aftermath of the consequences of ideas I described, codifies a dialectical individual-tribal relationship of reciprocal legitimacy and rights as, so far, a highly functional restorative remedy--a far more practically valuable perception perhaps than any abstract critique of genetic defects implicit in molecular ideas.

Franklin Evans
September 14, 2007 9:52 AM

Brad, I seriously doubt any analyst could state, with a straight face, that the US as a governmental agency has ever, in its existence, been "highly functional". Bureaucracies in general, and certainly the one I dealt with professionally in the late 70s and through the 80s, have a collective IQ in the low 60s. If I recall my bell curve correctly, that makes them the equivalent of a functionally illiterate immigrant with no tolerance for any divergence from standard patterns.

How does that cliche go? Democracy is the worst form of government... until you examine the alternatives. The sheer genius of creating a republic has been lost on most contemporary analysts. All good (and much bad, I must concede) stems from that decision.

Brad
September 14, 2007 12:27 PM

"Brad, I seriously doubt any analyst could state, with a straight face, that the US as a governmental agency has ever, in its existence, been "highly functional". Bureaucracies in general, and certainly the one I dealt with professionally in the late 70s and through the 80s, have a collective IQ in the low 60s. If I recall my bell curve correctly, that makes them the equivalent of a functionally illiterate immigrant with no tolerance for any divergence from standard patterns."

Franklin, I trust from your comments on this blog as a whole you understand quite well the difference between a political system in concept, any system, and bureaucratic sclerosis that tends to accrete within attempts to implement one, again, any system.

What is interesting, though, and fairly obvious though lost on many is that such bureaucratic sclerosis is not a function of government per se but rather of organization, any organization, as Roger Smith's GM and the Catholic Church in America illustrate as well as any other.

Franklin Evans
September 14, 2007 1:40 PM

...fairly obvious though lost on many... My way of expressing that, espeically when I'm feeling particularly ironic, is "a well-known but rarely discussed fact..."

If you have not yet had the pleasure, I commend to you the fiction (a loosely applied label) of the recently late Robert Anton Wilson. His The Illuminati! trilogy, co-authored with Robert Shea, goes into great detail about bureaucratic sclerosis (nice turn there).

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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