With Sam Brownback dropping out of the presidential race, Mike Huckabee, who's broke, is now in a position to win Iowa. He's polling well there -- at 18 percent, he's in third place, a whisker behind Thompson (19 percent), and within easy striking distance of Romney (25 percent) -- according to Rasmussen's poll of likely Iowa voters. Brownback's 3 percent will almost certainly roll over to Huck. I think he could pull off an upset there. I don't think the fading shlump Thompson's going to be much of a factor there come January.
Let's assume Huck wins Iowa. Does anybody think he has a real shot at the nomination after that? He's got less than a million dollars cash on hand today. Presumably some checkbooks would open up, but the nomination will likely be decided in the month after the Iowa vote. Would there be any commercial time left to buy? Could he pull it out? I really like him, and hope he does win Iowa, but I think the calendar and his checkbook are too great to overcome. At best, I think Huck's role in '08 is to be a spoiler (Romney is most at risk from him).
But I think he's going to get the GOP nomination in 2012. What think ye?
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Sorry Rod, I got news for ya...
I live in Iowa, attend Iowa State, (located in Ames, where the Straw Poll took place this summer) and from our vantage point, it looks like Mitt Romney has Iowa all but locked up. His ads run constantly on T.V. I don't know if Mitt has a large following outside of Iowa, but he's going to come out of the gate having securely won the Hawkeye State.
But by far, the most interesting and entertaining campaign has been Ron Paul's. The night of the Straw Poll, the Ron Paul folks were partying in the Campus Town bar district, with many of them dressed in pirate costumes. Ya gotta love that!
Paul has a following among younger people, (particularly the Libertarian, tech-savvy crowd) but Iowa is an elderly state - we have about as many elderly folks per population as Florida (it's cheap to live here, so retiring to the Sun Belt doesn't look so good to elderly folks here). So unfortunately, I don't think Ron Paul's popularity on the Iowa State campus (where you can see his signs dotted around bulletin boards) will translate into a victory here.
Giuliani, who seems to be running strong in the northeast, is barely a presence in Iowa. He has few followers here.
That's my observation, anyway.
Huckabee can can actually speak. He is genuine. His positions are strong and stable. He can actually stand up for his faith in popularly reasonable and understandable terms, without softening it. He is adamant about securing the border. He's legitimately and unapologetically conservative. He has a strong record of success running a government with a Democratic congress.
I believe the primary reason the powers that be are doing their best to ignore him, both in the media and in the political circles is his support for the Fairtax and his ability to present it clearly. The Fairtax is the biggest threat to the power and structure of our Federal political machine. It would eliminate Congress' ability to control and manipulate through taxation. The Fairtax would eliminate all the political tax favors legislated since the creation of the income tax system. It would eliminate all the tax loopholes created for our politicians campaign donors that they worked so hard for, and the ability to create any more. It would eliminate the whole K Street tax-favor-for-campaign-contribution corruption machine. It would level the political playing field. The only legitimate reasons I can find that anyone could have for not wanting the Fairtax is 1) having a vested interest in the perpetuation of some form of our current system or 2) not really understanding it (or being deceived about it). (I'd love to go into the long list of overwhelming benefits of the Fairtax, but that's another blog...)
He is the most normal of the Republicans. His positions are so logical and he can support them so well and reasonably, that he becomes one of those folks that if you attack him, you end up looking the unreasonable or attacking jerk. Put against Hillary, who he knows, and with the Arkansas background in common with her husband's political rise, Huckabee is so normal, that I believe she would either look shrill and wacko, or the socialistic bents of her positions and ideas would stand out in unfavorable stark contrast and as extreme to his. I think he would resonate and be much more relatable to a much broader audience and be offensive and polarizing to dramatically fewer than Hillary (or Obama for that matter).
He has my vote and my dollars.
"I think he would resonate and be much more relatable to a much broader audience and be offensive and polarizing to dramatically fewer than Hillary (or Obama for that matter)."
He's very likeable, but independents are not going to vote for someone with his extreme social conservative views. Independents aren't going to vote for someone who disbelieves Evolution and who appeals to the Focus on the Family/Bob Jones crowd. His appeal is limited almost solely to Republicans.
Maybe he can invigorate the GOP's far right, but all the charisma in the world doesn't make him palatable to Soccer Moms and Independents. Guiliani and McCain can appeal to moderates and Independents, Huckabee will have a hard time being both James Dobson's boy and an attractive mainstream candidate.
"Maybe he can invigorate the GOP's far right, but all the charisma in the world doesn't make him palatable to Soccer Moms and Independents."
You may well be right, but I don't think the average soccer mom is going to have a problem with someone who does more than pay lip service to believing in Jesus. I think they'll find Huckabee refreshing as someone who's Christian profession is more than the usual empty words.
Patrick:
For a Democrat, I like Huckabee too.
But he probably needs your dollars more than your vote right now.
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