Real estate, not religion, divides America
My friend Virginia Postrel just moved with her husband back to Los Angeles from Dallas. And in the new issue of The Atlantic, she's written a fascinating analysis (subscription-only) of what the radical difference in the price of housing in...
Not only that, people are segregating themselves *across the life cycle* as well. Around here, you see "empty nesters" trading up, taking out 30-year mortgages on condominiums that may cost 50% more than their house. The key? Those condos are in precisely the kind of upscale, arts-oriented, "non-kid-friendly" restaurant areas Postrel mentions. So even in the "family-friendly" metropolises of St. Louis or Dallas or Oklahoma City, you will probably still find "arts districts" with condo developments catering to the 50+ crowd, who want a more "bohemian" lifestyle.
The other rewards highly productive, work-driven people with a yen for stimulating public activities, for arts venues, world-class universities, luxury shopping, restaurants . . .
Huh?
500K
Wow LA is pretty cheap (compared to the SF Bay Area anyways.
Actually the analysis is pretty good as far as it goes but there is leakage on either side and in the expensive places, there can be extraordinary possibilies to make the extra money it takes to live there.
However, people in those places probably do work more.
So, more leisure opportunities but less time to take advantage of them.
Also, child rearing in these places is different too but then that's a whole other discussion.
This territory has been covered (albeit from the opposite ideological perspective) in John Sperling's The Great Divide: Metro vs. Retro America.
Thank you for telling me what is "hot" and "hip" so that I can get as far away from it as I can. I'm more into real, as in real life, real people, and real peace.
I think your both reading too much into higher house prices.
The bottom line is Southern CA has the only pleasant year round medetrenian climate in the US and a large number of people will pay a premium to live there.
This is a very interesting concept. I live in a suburb of Philadelphia; we are close enough to New York that a good number of people around here commute. We bought a split-level in this town about 15 years ago for 145,000. Now it is worth about 350,000. New homes near-by range from about 500,000 to 1 million now. I think we are caught in-between; it is a family-oriented town that is becoming more upscale. I think that our family values and relative wealth exist in tension. Interestingly, when I was a young child, after my family fled the city with its vices, the demographic makeup here consisted of other groups transplanted from the city. Now people from all over the country seem to gravitate here. No judgments, just observations.
CA. real estate bubbled up because of loose lending standards and a very stupid mania. It has ground to a halt, and experts say that it will continue to fall until 2011.
The crazy prices have little to do with CA being a "better" place to live.
There is a great site called "Dr. Housing Bubble", wherein he talks at length about the crazy prices in CA, and even shows you some of the tiny homes that sell for 500K. Funny stuff.
Just 500K for a whole house? That is not so bad.
In the center of Moscow for 540 000$ you can buy a flat consisting of one room (18 square metres)+kitchen (6 sq. metres).
Just see what you can buy on that money in different countries (300-550K):
http://ziza.ru/2007/08/27/chto_mozhno_kupit_za_kvartiru_v_moskve_31_foto__teks.html
1.Moscow
2.London
3.France (Cannes)
4.Brussels
5.Spain
6. USA, state Washington
7.Greece
8.USA, Miami (view on Atlantic ocean)
9.Austria
10.Italy
11. Berlin
etc. (Carribean Islands, Vietnam, Australia, Brasil,Finland, India)
Goodness...4 bedrooms, two bathrooms...
I don't know if I buy this. I live in a city (Indianapolis) that bears much more similarity to Dallas than to LA, but as the first commenter notes, cities like Indy/St. Louis/Cincinnati/Cleveland all have neighborhoods where people like those Virginia describes pay a premium for smaller houses and smaller lots because of the quality/character of the housing stock and/or because of proximity of food, art, culture, coffee, etc. Certainly, there are more neighborhoods like that in places like LA and SF, but it seems to me that there are no shortage of such folks in Indianapolis, and certainly there are plenty of poor and ordinary middle class folks in LA. Is what Virginia says true of the entire LA metro area (San Fernando Valley, Simi Valley, Inland Empire, etc.), or just her corner of West LA? It strikes me as hard to believe. Of course, prices are higher across the board in LA because it has a beautiful setting and climate and because the surrounding oceans and mountains limit the extent of developable land. Price are high on the East coast and in Florida because land is so developed that buying undeveloped land involves a hellacious commute. Again, I agree that the coasts have more of this, but in my experience there are all sorts of people everywhere, and this notion of segregating by region of the country seems way overstated.
What is it about Postrel that intrests you, Rod? One of the last things I read by her she was bashing Pat Buchanan for something or other. Now it seems she's writing about style and glamour. In short, she, like too many Americans, is obsessed with the superficial and ephemeral.
Why is she relevant to Cruncy Cons?
Great post.
Not only that, people are segregating themselves *across the life cycle* as well.
This is very true as well: the ultimate anti-family, anti-community lifestyle. It is the end result of a materialist mindset.
The "me" generation has finally grown up! I just wished they all were wealthy enough to go to LA and Florida :-).
I live in L.A. I've also lived on the East coast. The reason why housing is so expensive here is I can put on a pair of flip flops and shorts in February on most days. In VA where I used to live, in July it's so hot and humid you want to die while in L.A., it's maybe 85 with no humidity. Also, the job-market is very vibrant and pays better than most of the U.S. Whereas in much of America if you lose your job you're totally hosed.
Of course, L.A. has HUGE problems. Housing is expensive, traffic awful, illegal immigration puts a huge strain on the area, public schools in many areas are horrible [but blame the administrators and teachers unions, they have tons of cash]. Then there's the looming threat of an 8.0 earthquake that will make Katrina seem like a small Red-Cross cleanup operation.
However, the author presents a VERY West L.A./entertainment industry perspective with which I agree: vain, materialistic, workaholic secularists in love with themselves. However, in the remaining 90% of the L.A. area normal people live. Where people have kids, go to Church/Synagogue, attend PTA meetings, come home for a 6pm dinner, and GASP, even vote Republican! Yes, for middle and even middle class folks it's tough due to the housing costs. But it's a choice people like me make. I could move to another city and buy a nice house for $250K, but when I lose my job, can I find a new one in a few weeks? Can I take my kids to the park in January or August? I live in an area where for the most part people of different races and religions co-mingle quite nicely. Can you say that about Dallas? I used to live in VA and the 'N' word was used by well-educated people all the time. Yes, I'm sure it happens out here, but I've never experienced it. These are things I'm willing to pay for and so do millions more.
In the end, housing is expensive here because you have an area with great weather and good jobs where a lot of people want to live. It's called supply and demand. Dallas, while surely a lovely place, does not have year-round good weather and a gigantic job market else millions more people would be living there, not L.A. I don't buy the class-warfare nonsense Virginia espouses. Every city has rich area's and poor areas, often dictated by the lifestyle choices their inhabitants decided to make, and often by the sheer luck of the draw life gives you. Yes, I do live in an area with expensive housing and not a lot of poor people, but my church donates huge sums of money to the poor. Each year L.A. area Catholics donate $15 or so million to poor parishes in L.A. where people get food, education and spiritual nourishment for free, I bet the author didn't talk about that. Or the countless other denominations who do very much the same.
L.A. is no paradise, and having traveled much in the U.S. there are better places to live but the stereotype people place on this area applies to such a small percentage of the population and geographic area it just doesn't fit. I'm sure angry liberals in Santa Monica feel as the author does, but most of us don't.
Andrew makes a good point about living with a robust job market.
In many places, losing your job is an unmitigated tragedy. In a dynamic metro, most people work at a place for 4 years or less. There is always another opportunity. That's worth alot.
I'd add that in the dynamic metros, you are very consciously part of the international economy. Consequently, prices, wages and opportunities are more tied to international standards.
John M.: Hello from Bloomington! I sometimes wonder if anybody else in Indiana read _Crunchy Cons_ besides myself, the friend who gave it to me, and the three or four friends to whom I gave it.
And to relate this to the topic at hand--the town where I live, being home to a Big Ten university, is unfortunately small-town living with rather big-city prices. It's kind of the worst of both worlds in terms of the economy, alas, having evidently the most expensive real estate in Indiana. The house that would cost ~$100-120k in Indianapolis will probably run you about $180-250k down here, depending on how close to the university you're looking. The job market sucks, being largely service-oriented. Besides the university, there's also a pharmaceutical manufacturer, and they're really the two best employers in town, but in both cases, it's next to impossible to get on unless somebody dies or they need *you* specifically, and you're not going to make a ton of money working for either of them (assuming we're not talking about higher administration roles or faculty positions where the university's concerned, or executive positions in the latter case), the main reason being because if you don't like it, there will be a hundred people in line behind you who won't care.
In many respects, it's a very nice and "crunchy" place to live; it's very pretty, nice farmer's market, we're able to walk most places (except church--real estate prices, even ten years ago, dictated that the burgeoning Orthodox community buy land at the far south end of town; we've got 24 acres and we're finally starting to make use of it, but good luck finding it the first time!), it's relatively easy to buy locally, and the people are very nice. On the other hand, a good chunk of why property is so expensive here is because of rich East Coast kids getting sent to college with Mommy and Daddy's platinum card. Our first apartment here was $850/month; then they bumped it to $900; then they wanted to bump it to $1000, and we said no. As soon as they knew we weren't renewing, they started asking $2,000 a month for the place; they got it, and quickly. Like I said, worst of both worlds.
Richard
Will, I think Virginia is a smart, enjoyable foil for Rod. It's nice to see a respectful friendship between people who disagree on a lot. For my part, I'd love to see a Postrel-Dreher debate about consumerism, because it's a subject about which both have insightful things to say.
I live in L.A. I've also lived on the East coast. The reason why housing is so expensive here is I can put on a pair of flip flops and shorts in February on most days. In VA where I used to live, in July it's so hot and humid you want to die while in L.A., it's maybe 85 with no humidity. Also, the job-market is very vibrant and pays better than most of the U.S. Whereas in much of America if you lose your job you're totally hosed.
But here in VA we also have exorbitant real estate prices. Not at the LA or SF level, but compared to just about anywhere in the Midwest or South, they are extremely high. It's almost mindboggling to someone from my part of the country that Rod could buy a single family home for only 165K!
I suppose weather can be a factor in housing costs, but anecdotally I don't think I've ever heard of anyone moving to or from Virginia who cited the climate as a factor in their move.
But SVS, you, presumably, live around San Francisco. Based on 2002 number compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (the BEA has more recent numbers but they don't appear to be broken down per capita), San Francisco has the highest per capita GDP of any metropolitan area in the US. Which is to say, the world. And San Jose is number three. But LA is not San Francisco. In terms of productivity and hard work (which, presumably, is what GDP in part measures) LA isn't Dallas either. And speaking of Virginia (the state), LA's not that much different from Richmond. LA's per capita GDP is only slightly higher than that of Richmond (and only slightly higher than Indianapolis as well). LA's fast lane of highly productive people who like book lurnin' and lookin at purdy stuff, unlike them rednecked oafs down Tejas way, are exceeded by Houston, Atlanta, Denver, San Diego, and Milwaukee. Now those are all 2002 numbers. In the subsequent 5 years I'm sure that California's punitive taxes, oppressive regulation, and overpriced housing have tanked a few of those local economic power houses.
None of this is to say that cities should be measured by the value of stuff they produce. But it is a virtue of sorts. And one that shouldn't be ascribed to LA.
Steve Sailer's had some good stuff on this; namely, that family-friendliness and home-affordability have a lot to do with kids and who has them and when, and that this basic lifestyle difference has a lot to do with the differences of red and blue states where ages of marriage, family size, and the rate of child birth are radically different.
The housing runup in LA was not due to "supply and demand," but due to toxic loan products that allowed 7 dollar per hour illegals to purchase homes for $750,000! Thus, the huge numbers of foreclosures.
It is a total myth that people in SOCA make more than people make elsewhere. If the average income in SOCA is 52K, it's 48K in Texas. But the overall cost of living in Texas is HALF that of SOCA. Eighty thousand in Los Angeles is the same as forty thousand in Houston. Hard to believe, but it's true.
Also, I think that the blue state stereotypes are pretty accurate for LA, despite the post above. I listen to a daily din from hysterical Bush haters, made ironic by the fact that I don't much care for him myself.
Again, I'll take issue with the above post declaring that Los Angeles is family friendly; it most certainly is NOT. My girlfriend and I broke up for the simple reason that we could not afford to take the next step in life by making a home purchase. The middle class is running for the exits, fleeing SOCA because the housing prices are CRAZY insane. So, yes, that leaves seculars, singles, Hollywood types...and naive illegals...leaves the very rich and the very poor to duke it out.
This scenario does not bode well for SOCA.
The housing runup in LA was not due to "supply and demand," but due to toxic loan products that allowed 7 dollar per hour illegals to purchase homes for $750,000! Thus, the huge numbers of foreclosures.
What a relief! I was worried that maybe law-abiding Anglos has something to do with the housing bubble. What's on TV?
Great sarcasm, but what's your point?
Honestly in most big cities and suburbs, how much you can afford a month for rent or mortgage, determines your exact zip code.
The only place this is not so in force is in small rural towns where there is much more discourse between classes.
This is one reason I will never live in a place that has over 50,000 in population again.
This will teach Postrel and others to 1) not buy into a mythical part of town whose who 'cache' is invented by realtors; i.e. Dallas' 'Uptown' which broke away on paper (and word of imported marketing mouths) from the actual sector that contains it, 'Oak Lawn', because the term 'Oak Lawn' had come to be equated with the so-called 'Gay Community' (like they hover in masses). The result? You buy a balloon? You find out someone simply inflated a condom. C'est la Vie.
I think that the blue state stereotypes are pretty accurate for LA, despite the post above. I listen to a daily din from hysterical Bush haters, made ironic by the fact that I don't much care for him myself.
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