We had a municipal election yesterday in Dallas in which voters chose to stick with a plan to put a new toll road in a central Dallas river bottom. Traffic downtown in the interstate exchange called "The Mixmaster" is horribly gridlocked, so this new road is set to be a reliever. There's reason, though, to wonder if, by the time it gets built, it will ever be used like its designers intend. People simply may not be able to afford to drive in the near future like they do now.
Kunstler speaks of the reason why:
One of the biggest laughs of the season came out of a New York Times business section story last Tuesday by reporter Michael Grynbaum, who wrote, "Oil is on a steady march toward toppling the inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 it set in April 1980, analysts said, though many are at a loss as to what keeps driving the price." (Italics mine.) Actually, lots of people know what is driving up the price -- just not anybody who works at that once-august and now-clueless newspaper. It can be stated simply -- the demand line has crossed the supply line -- though that simple fact has many curious ramifications.
Really, read the entire Kunstler entry for a collection of facts and analysis talking about the fragility of the US financial system and the effect peak oil is having on our security. It is time for all of us to start paying attention, and making plans for how we're going to ride this thing out. If you think it's merely a matter of cutting back on driving, you could not possibly be more mistaken. Read Deneen today, using news that the Chinese are starting to dump US dollars to offer an explanation of what the end of cheap and plentiful oil will mean for everyday life.
It is craziness to put one's faith in the ability of scientists to work a miracle to deliver America from this fate. One prays that they will, of course, but do you really want to bet everything on the hope of innovation coming in on schedule? In time enough to prevent resource wars (N.B., much of world oil production is now in the hands of state-owned oil companies, and the states that own them are openly hostile to the US). Anybody who looks forward to the peak-oil crash is also crazy. It wouldn't bring about a crunchy paradise -- though crunchy-con types would be better prepared to adapt -- but rather a time of political and economic crisis, shortages and severe dislocation. As Deneen puts it, the country really would go back in time, and rearrange its social and economic relations around localism -- especially in areas that have water and arable land (goodbye, Southwest!).
I had put my new monasticism book project on the shelf while I contemplated an offer to do a different book, a more quickie project. But I'm beginning to think that the kind of knowledge a book on "The Benedict Option," specifically focusing on the practical ways that the Benedictines helped save civilization from the Dark Ages, and how we could learn from them if America goes into a period of severe crisis, might be needed more than this other thing.
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If Kunstler was a Y2K alarmist, I wouldn't trust his judgement on where to order a pizza from.
Yes, he was a Y2K alarmist. He also says we have now "the war we deserve." He's also on record saying "bombing Iran is not the worst thing we could do." He started predicting the Dow would hit 4000 in 2005 and he's repeated the same prediction at regular intervals since then.
But for all his cynical, Chicken Little/Boy Who Cried Wolf hystrionics, there's something about his prognostications that resonates. Today, Helicopter Ben is telling a story of woe to congress, with high oil prices, massive housing losses, a plunging dollar and a reluctance of lenders to lend. The Dow is already down 2 percent for the week.
Pakistan is in turmoil. Cheney's rattling sabers at Iran. It's not that hard to imagine Kunstler's Clusterf*ck nation.
Here's my rule for World Collapse...
Prepare for the worst.
Hope for the best.
Get on with life.
He started predicting the Dow would hit 4000 in 2005 and he's repeated the same prediction at regular intervals since then.
Predict enough things and you occasionally get something right.
The DOW is down 2% for the week.
My friend, that doesn't even constitute a minor correction in a bull market. I predict that if we get an 8 to 10% decline off the recent peaks, it will be seen as a great buying opportunity. And I'll bet real money on it.
there's something about his prognostications that resonates.
Not with me.
He started predicting the Dow would hit 4000 in 2005 and he's repeated the same prediction at regular intervals since then.
I didn't read this right the first time.
Whaaa. Has he given a date for this?
It bottomed in 02 at almost double that. That prediction is almost as stupid as the Y2K one. The guy is a fool and anybody who listens to him or takes his advise... gets what they deserve.
Whaaa. Has he given a date for this?...The guy is a fool and anybody who listens to him or takes his advise... gets what they deserve.
I should have said that in 2005 he predicted the Dow would hit 4000 in 2005. And he predicted in 2006 that the Dow would hit 4000 in 2006.
You know, in a way, I agree with you. In his defense, he did retract that particular prediction, albeit in an equivocal way, this year. Why do people listen to him? I wonder the same thing about Rod Dreher. Rod Dreher used the Dallas Morning News to propagandize for war in 2003 and he subsequently recanted too. Yet here we are reading him. Maybe we're masochists. Or maybe we take our tea leaves where we find them.
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