The disordered soul
Georgetown's Patrick Deneen explains why he goes on about the problem with peak oil, consumerism, and apocalyptic whatnot: [M]y argument is not that we are doomed because we are running out of stuff. My constant attention to the problems we...
Fr. Schall had his own peculiar way of trying to prove I was not "self-sufficient" at Georgetown.
When he found out I did not brook his conservative line, he tried (and failed) to have me thrown out of the Hilltop on (false) plagiarism charges.
True story.
Human beings are "hard-wired" to prefer a high standard of living over a low standard of living, to prefer living in a home that is heated over one that is not, to prefer running water over trying carry water by the bucket over miles of land and so on.
Joshua Muravchik put it best in his book, "The Rise and Fall of Socialism."
In the Federalist Papers, Madison observed famously that government was necessary because men were not angels and that controls on government were necessary because those who governed were not angels. Had Madison commented on socialism, he might have come up with an analogous parodox: if men were angels then an economy might succeed without selfish incentives, but if men were angels it would not matter whether the economy succeeded since they would have no material needs.
We can blather all we want about SUVs and McMansions. But most human beings don't want to live like the homeless, even if this might please the enviromentalists.
We need people to study Adam Smith, Fredrick Von Hayek, Milton Friedman more and pay less attention to the modern day Jimmy Carters who complain that we are rapidly running out of resources while they advocate economic policies that guarantee that we........ rapidly run out of resources.
"we" can't even "govern ourselves" with a balanced budget...
"our insatiable appetites" go beyond common personal excesses...
even our leadership governs with immaturity...
since of course they are as much "disordered souls" as the common folk...
so...
if the few ever come to realize that they are "self-insufficient"...
what's to stop the vast majority from continuing their insatiable ways?
besides a miracle, that is...
faith hope love joy peace to all...
There is still an authentic Catholic priest at Georetown?
Rock said, "We can blather all we want about SUVs and McMansions. But most human beings don't want to live like the homeless, even if this might please the enviromentalists."
This is true; but isn't there a happy medium somewhere? Are our only choices the street corner or the McMansion, the SUV or the horse and buggy? It seems like we're quick to reject the notion of even reasonable restraint, which seems to bolster the notion "...that we are destroying ourselves by degree because we refuse to govern our appetites or even see these appetites as problematic."
Cleveland:
If you judge trying to throw out students unfairly as "an authentic Catholic priest," sure.
I think the point is, to paraphrase the National Lampoon Radio Hour, "All power to the correct appetites!" ;-)
How about this quote from Rita Rudner (via Anthony D'Amato's website):
"Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.”
Imagine a future in which the ueber-rich have access to all the latest breakthroughs in medical technology, while the great masses of the poor working McJobs, who are blamed for their own lack of technical intelligence, are denied basic health insurance. Or a period in which slavery is reintroduced under the guise of consent, on the basis that no one can deliberately harm himself or herself and that the worst thing of all is to deny oneself one's appetites, least of all the desire to become reduced to a thing for the pleasure of other people. A future of new tyrannies awaits, springing up out of the unleashed impulse to devise new freedoms free of any sense of the sacred.
Erin Manning wrote:
This is true; but isn't there a happy medium somewhere? Are our only choices the street corner or the McMansion, the SUV or the horse and buggy? It seems like we're quick to reject the notion of even reasonable restraint, which seems to bolster the notion "...that we are destroying ourselves by degree because we refuse to govern our appetites or even see these appetites as problematic."
I suppose we could analyze why not everyone owns an SUV or a McMansion. Cost is probably a big considerations for many people. Sometimes I think that I might like to have a larger house with a larger kitchen and more living space, given the somewhat cramped housing arrangement I have right now. I also can see the advantages of owning an SUV. I can't afford the mortgate payment on a McMansion and I can't afford the payment or the gasoline cost of an SUV. So, I do without both.
But this has more to do with not earning enough money than it does believing in some abstract principle of "governing our appetites."
Most people who have money spend the money on their appetites. This is true for Al Gore and others.
I think we are fooling ourselves if we think that human beings aren't hard-wired to want things that make their lives more comfortable. This dosen't mean that every super-rich movie star is going to own 8 sports cars or a 30,000 square foot home. The super-rich might eventually satisfy most of their appetities.
The other 99 percent of the human population, however, is going to try to satisfy their appetites whenever they can afford to and aren't going to restrain their appetites for reasons other than "I can't afford to satisfy that appetities of mine for a larger house."
We might wish human beings had a different nature. But human nature is what it is and it won't change.
Peak Oil/Global Warming enthusiasts strike me as some of the most unimaginative and unpersuasive folks on the planet. As a philosophy both seem to attract the grim, the dour, and the doctrinaire. It is entirely possible that we CAN continue to apply one technical Band-Aid after another indefinitely or at least well beyond our own lifespans. If that is true then there really is no need to change our lives in any significant way.
The question then becomes: if we are not doomed, why should we choose to live any other way? This is the fundamental question that doomers like Jim Kunstler and Deneen almost never address. If you read CF Nation on anything like a regular basis the line of argument goes that natural scarcity is going to FORCE us to live according to his prescriptions. Seldom is persuasion brought to bear.
Rod's book goes part of the way in offering a rationale for choosing a different path but Our Working Boy often rests his case on the same grim predictions. It is a bit like Millenialists trying to win converts by predicting the end of the world. Problem is, what happens when the apocalypse fails, as it will, to arrive on schedule?
Nothing is more pointless than issuing grand sweeping generalizations about the naughty, naughty things that "disordered" people do. Especially when "we" refer to the lamentable acts as things that "we" do, even though the speaker in no way includes him or herself in that group, but in point of fact considers him/herself to be far superior to naughty "us" and "our" disordered appetites. I guess I've listened to too many sermons by Catholic priests in my day, many of which took this form. "Father" was frequently heard to talk of "our" materialism, and "our" selfishness in "our" marriages, and "our" lack of appreciation for the sacraments. He didn't mean himself, of course. He meant "alla y'all."
Meanwhile, I think Larry makes an excellent point. If a teacher can't behave decently to students and exercise his daily authority with integrity, why the heck should we listen to his grandiose pronouncements about "us"? To exercise moral suasion, you have to have moral standing.
Lest it be thought that I'm referring to Rod when I chide the knights who say "we"--I'm not. As far as I can see, Rod is including himself when he speaks of "we as Americans." It is Schall with whom I take issue. Too early in the morning . . . .
...we are destroying ourselves by degree because we refuse to govern our appetites or even see these appetites as problematic...it's whether or not we will govern ourselves and our insatiable appetites.
Ah, peak oil. Finally it's hit the mainstream after years of hiding in the blogs and forums of 9/11 truthers, survivalist kooks and Bush-bashers.
Now I expect to see the same bitter arguments in Rod's blog that I've read since 9-11 in Mike Ruppert's web site, Kunstler's blog, the Oil Drum, and dozens of Google Groups and Yahoo Groups. Is peak oil real? What do I do? Buy gold, build a shelter, plant a garden, etc?
One thing's for sure, our "non-negotiable American way of life" just became negotiable. Bush's advice to "go shopping" to teach the terrorists a lesson will go down in history as one of the most idiotic pronouncements ever made by a US president.
There's no need to wonder why we refuse to govern our appetites. Everywhere we look we're told to buy, and our leaders either have no clue or are intent on destroying all traces of American government.
Yawn. There they go again.
Problem is, what happens when the apocalypse fails, as it will, to arrive on schedule?
Peak oil isn't philosophy, it's geology and statistics. King Hubbert accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970, and his prediction was spot-on correct. Predicting the peak of global oil production is more difficult for a number of reasons, but the process is essentially the same.
While it can be disheartening to contemplate a world without cheap, ubiquitous oil, that doesn't change the simple fact that oil is finite, and we will indeed reach a peak point in production and then descend into depletion.
You could be right, we could apply technical band-aids in the form of coal, wind, solar and nuclear energy. But none of those is portable like oil, and as we see, our current "leaders" would much rather fight ineffably expensive oil wars for decades to come than propose the band-aids you're hoping for.
Sig et al:
I understand the "Father says" dynamic of which you speak, but beware that you miss the message because of the messenger.
In 12-step spirituality (I"ll plug the book "Spirituality of Imperfection" for any who wish to read more about this), its power stems from the fact that all are gathered to acknowledge their problems with addiction and addictive thinking. Perfectionism -- inability to admit limitations, inability to admit fault, inability to ask for help -- is a very common problem. Surrendering to the reality of self-imperfection is the fundamental first step. And far from being a continual exercise in breast-beating and self-flagellation, there is a freedom in living life with so much less fear of making mistakes and so much less shame in asking for help and acknowledging one's mistakes, even laughing at them.
I guess I am reading Rod's post thru that lens, and it speaks to me.
Peak Oil/Global Warming enthusiasts
The two are nothing alike.
Man-made Global Warming is more religion than science. It has never been modeled to a level to convince reasonable skeptics who actually examine the data (less than 1% have). It's a scientific wet-dream: you can't disprove it and you just keep tweeking models and moving your dates out. It's a golden goose that keeps on delivering research dollars, and secularist liberals need a new religion, so it's perfect!
Peak oil, however is nothing like this. There is no government or scientific motivation to want it to be true. It is NOT a kook issue. It's already proven to be predictable - it was predicted for U.S. Land 50 over years ago, and it came in right on schedule (peaked in 1971). We can't get a good date worldwide because OPEC/Russia hides their data, be we can get close guesses. And we are close.
The world WILL peak unless we slow consumption through very high prices. And this means a recession until a replacement is obtained. The price must rise to painful levels (and Europe/Oz pay about $10/gal right now w/ tax at the pump without flinching, so I mean *well* over $10/gal) to get a meaningful drop in consumption. Remember, oil needs to be $135/bbl to even equal 1970-80 percentage of GDP. We need $300-$500 bbl oil to seriously dampen worldwide consumption. We are not replacing current reserves with $100/bbl oil right now: not because we are not drilling like crazy, but because it just ain't there.
It's all about discovery of new oil. Look at the data yourself. Oil companies are sitting awash billions in cash due to high prices because they have nowhere good to drill and are putting the money into solar and that junk. Remember, it takes years even after discovery to extract new oil even if it's found later. Rig rates are 2-4 times what they were a few years ago - every dang junky rig (and every old loser retired drilling guy) is being concripted right now, yet with little new oil forthcoming, and few new rigs are being built because there is nowhere good to drill except the Middle East and Russia. Does that warm your heart?
I repeat, as an Adam Smith guy (Hayek is my hero) and someone who knows a little bit about drilling: peak oil is nothing like global warming. It's solid economic reality, supply and demand. Don't let a bunch of liberal kooks hijack this issue. We will peak, and we need conservative policies (read: free market) to deal with it. If we let liberals claim this issue, high oil prices will wreck our economy due to libs non-free market solutions.
It's a golden goose that keeps on delivering research dollars, and secularist liberals need a new religion, so it's perfect!
Is Newt Gingrich a 'secularist liberal' now?
M_David--what would a free-market solution look like for the US, considering that the vast majority of the world's oil is not under our control? What free market sets the rules, and how would it work without some government regulation? I'm not snarking--I'm genuinely interested. I've just started reading about the subject, and it's pretty scary.
Why is new oil not being created? Have the processes that created it in the first place (pressure turning organic material into petroleum)stopped?
what would a free-market solution look like for the US, considering that the vast majority of the world's oil is not under our control?
Iraq.
"Why is new oil not being created? Have the processes that created it in the first place (pressure turning organic material into petroleum)stopped?"
It is, of course, but it's much slower than our consumption. What we're burning now is the result of several hundred million years' natural process.
Brian, either you're joking, or your grasp of geological timescales is laughable. It will take literally millions of years for nature to replace the oil drilled in the last century. I have every confidence that homo sapiens will be long extinct by then.
15,000 scientists from around the world will gather in San Francisco in two weeks for the American Geophysical Union's annual conference. Since M. David is so certain their work is religious in nature, he might want to poll a few to find out how many question the IPCC's fourth report on the "unequivocal" finding of global warming. From my interviews, I would guess it's considerably less than one percent.
But that's an old debate, and even hard-core right-wingers such as Robert Novak will admit that regardless of the science, most Americans believe in global warming, and want to see action taken to reduce the risks. The bigger question, as Rod and Patrick Deneen point out, is the question of how we are willing to govern ourselves and our appetites. I wish I could be more optimistic on this point, but as Emerson observed:
"I find that the Americans have no passions, they have appetites."
[Notebooks: 1852]
Thanks, sig.
Ironically, for our extraordinarily different politics and theologies, Fr. Schall was a fantastic teacher. But, needless to say, I lost all respect for him after that.
Meanwhile, I think Larry makes an excellent point. If a teacher can't behave decently to students and exercise his daily authority with integrity, why the heck should we listen to his grandiose pronouncements about "us"? To exercise moral suasion, you have to have moral standing.
I don't know Larry Parker or the details of the plagiarism allegations against him. But the claim that Fr. Schall malevolently tried to have him expelled on false charges is so far removed from Fr. Schall's character and reputation that taking such a claim at face value is patently unjust. Not to mention the rather far-fetched idea that a Georgetown student could risk expulsion for refusing to "brook the conservative line."
For Will:
That there is some finite amount of oil in the world is a reasonable enough proposition, beyond that Peak Oil is a speculative endeavor based on fragmentary evidence of variable reliability and accuracy. If I believed I had the world oil supply calculated down to the hour, day or even decade my first call would be to a commodities broker rather than an ASPO conference.
I'm not hoping for Band-Aids but I'm not rejecting them out of hand in the manner of Jim Kunstler. Technical solutions seem as plausible as total collapse. As it happens, I live my life fairly close to Kunstler's prescriptions but not because I believe in the 'long emergency'. If you'll re-read my original post you will find that I am asking, absent the big stick of doom, why should we want to live any other way? I can think of spiritual answers to that question, and that accounts for my own choices, but what might be the secular case, if any?
For M_David:
I agree the two (peak oil and global warming) are nothing alike but they do attract a same certain type of individual into their camps. For those folks the chief value of peak oil or global warming is that it serves as a pretext for them to proscribe the behavior of others. In this case, benighted McMansion dwellers and SUV drivers.
Cheers,
Basil
"The fault is not in our stars, but in our selves." - Shakespeare (I believe -- please correct me if this quote is from someone else.)
or
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo
Objectively disordered.
(Is this the right thread?)
Basil, I agree.
Angela: what would a free-market solution look like for the US, considering that the vast majority of the world's oil is not under our control?
1) No price controls - ever. Never soften the blow for the consumer. Let him suffer. And price controls will most likely happen (read the Hirsh Report).
2) Open up drilling on all US controlled land and water. Yesterday.
3) Slowly lower taxes on oil sale and production as we cross the peak.
4) Begin to cut back on government vehicle fleets (especially the military) and convert to non-liquid fuels where possible. Save liquids for the free market.
None of this will fix anything long term, just let us ease into $300/bbl oil. We need time to adjust to using coal, nuclear, and yes, conservation. The largest oil pool in the world left to tap is conservation (at least 30% without GDP loss as nearly 3/4 of the oil barrel is locked up in transportation - think working at home, easing up on visting the folks, moving to town). But we won't do this without a lot of pain first. Pain at levels liberals will be SO, SO, SO very eager to salve for their own political gain. Just imagine Hillary or Edwards with $15/gal gas, licking their lips and rubbing their hands as they whip up riots at the pump. I beg conservatives to get involved on the peak oil debate for everyone's sake.
Kit Stolz: 15,000 scientists from around the world will gather in San Francisco in two weeks
Over 19,000 scientists have already signed a document saying there is not enough data on MMGW to show anything. But counting scientists like this means absolutely nothing, I'm merely responding to your belief it means something.
I would encourage everyone to start with an open mind and look at the data itself (if you can handle complex math). Personally, I'm an agnostic on MMGW, and so are a lot of others who've looked over the data. But politics have overridden any honest talk. I know literally hundreds of pro MMGW types who know far less than I do (say, Novak, Dreher, Gore...) boldly claiming that MMGW is a reality. In truth, the average American doesn't know squat about it, but has already made up their minds because they want to for whatever reason. That's the truth.
Regarding "climate scientists," never ask a barber if you need a haircut. Sure, he's an "expert" on haircuts, but...don't be hard on him. He has to make a living.
Jim, I agree with you about the benefits of owning up honestly to my own mistakes and being willing to take a good look at myself, make amends, and change. (See the recent book, Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me, by Carol Tavris and Elliot Abramson. The first chapter is up on buzzle.com.) What I'm kvetching about is the tendency by self-anointed pundits to piously and publicly confess the sins of others. If Schall, for instance, had written an article in which he spoke of his own participation in social behavior that's greedy and wasteful, and what he thought might be done to improve the situation, I would have found that much more useful.
Let's say we did a Manhatten-Apollo project and created what to us is limitless cheap solar power. That means there would be essentially no energy restrictions. Sports cars and SUVs suck up energy because they are fast or big. If energy is not a concern, we could build RVs that go faster than Ferraris. Consider that calculation spread across the entire economy. Human wants would be limited by the amount of stuff, like aluminum and wood, not the amount of energy. But nanotechnology may be able to get over that hurdle.If a future such as this makes you queasy, I have a problem with your philosophy.
Some people cannot handle success and intentionally sabotage their job, relationships, and their life because they believe they don't deserve it. Underlying all the peak oil*/global warming/population bomb fears is the fear that it can't last. People who think we need to cut back now for peak oil are the same people that will tell you to break up with your girlfriend or boyfriend today, because they're out of your league and they'll dump you later.
*Peak oil may be true, and in a theoretical sense it is: eventually we'll run out of oil. However, even if that time is 20 years from now (and not even peak oil people are saying that), the market will take care of the situation. Prices will rise, consumption will drop, and alternatives will replace oil.
Matthew: even if that time is 20 years from now (and not even peak oil people are saying that)
A person I greatly respect on oil issues believes we are already at peak. So what you are saying regarding peak oil folk simply isn't true. I have no idea when we will peak (not enough Saudi or deepwater data), but the market certainly doesn't like the current supply chain: $100/bbl oil makes no sense based upon current production rates. This means people that know what's going on are looking into the future of proven reserves and don't like what they see. This makes me uncomforable.
the market will take care of the situation. Prices will rise, consumption will drop, and alternatives will replace oil.
Yeah...sure. Just like that. Let's go over oil shortages in the past:
+ The 1930's, when we America was the world's largest producer and we cut off Japan's oil supply...and they responded by bombing us and getting us into WWII.
+ The 1970's, America peaked in oil production...and Nixon started rationing oil.
Oil feeds the wolf. When the world believes we've hit peak production, it's not going to be fun and games. Oil is not like Twinkies where we can just leave out the Creamy Filling and keep on porking. It is the world highest return-on-energy product ever discovered. The entire world's transportation fleet uses it. We've used it for 100 years. We can't just change this kind of thing overnight, so there simply is no known ceiling to where prices could raise if peak oil hits quickly due to people burying their head in the Saudi sands. Sure, I agree the market works. But prepare to grow through pain, that's all I'm saying.
M_David,
Right, because technology has never been able to overcome limits the natural world places on humanity.
Tokamak:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_nuclear_fusion
I, oddly enough, agree with what M_David says about what to do, but I will add some ideas of my own:
5) The government should spend money now to convert their office buildings to solar power. Not because it would would be particularly useful, but because then they would eat the early-adopter cost that has been plaguing solar power for a decade. And office buildings are actually very very good candidates for solar power, seeing as they mainly only operate during daylight. What we eventually need is some sort of purchasable turn-key system that can be installed in new buildings for no more than the cost of five years of power, and that's going to cost money to actually set up, so let's eat the cost. (While we're at it, let's invent some sort of low-voltage DC wiring standard so we don't have to do so much power conversion.)
6) Stop allowing stupid exceptions to the MPG requirements. No more SUVs counting as trucks instead of passenger cars. Car companies, if people want to buy large amounts of SUVs and you can't get their MPG up enough, then work on increasing the MPG of everything else...it is an average requirement, and we know you can hit 40 MPGs on cars. If you're forced to sell more hybrids to cover the mileage failure of the SUVs, raise the price of the SUVs until it's worthwhile. (I mean, honestly, do I have to think of everything?)
7) Three words: More mass transit. This particularly applies to my area, but what would be nice if we'd get federal mass transit funds instead of some of the federal highway funds. Even petrol-based mass transit is better than automobiles, as, for example, trains and buses compliment each other better than trains and cars...you don't have a car at both ends.
8) Along with that: More bike and car rental places. So you do have a car at both ends.
9) And, also, how about some truck rental places, for those people who insist they need a truck to haul something once a month. (Who here already has an extended family that already shares a single truck?)
10) I wonder how much gas the post office uses? What if we stopped running the postal routes Tuesdays and Thursdays? Not the post offices or the drop-box pickups, just the door-to-door stuff.
Any other ideas? We really need to get on this, and it shouldn't have been a partisan issue.
Simon:
You know I was a student at Georgetown from 1987 to 1990. We've talked about it numerous times on CC.
IT HAPPENED. (Believe me, I was as shocked as anyone given how Fr. Schall treated me before.)
Trust me on this one.
M_David and DavidTC
I really like your ideas. I've been waiting for the mono-rail system to come to town ever since a trip to Disney World as a kid (a loooong time ago!), although my kids say mag-lev is the way to go. Color me a cockeyed optimist, but I think there's enough creativity and ingenuity out there to outwit the doomsayers. Of course, there won't be if we don't take off the blinders and the feed bag; or to murder another metaphor, if we run amok like Chicken Little and trust Foxy Loxy for safety.
Larry, I'm not disputing what did or didn't happen. How would I know?
But that's the whole point. In largely anonymous comboxes, there is no way of verifying anyone's accounts of their personal experiences. Unless you're able/willing to offer up some details that could be independently evaluated, it is not fair to post a one-sided indictment here of Fr. Schall (I, too, am a Hoya and am a friend of Schall), particularly given that the maliciousness you attribute to him is completely out of character.
M. David's petition signed by "19,000 scientists" is a reference to the Oregon Petition, which is, unsurprisingly, b.s.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Oregon_Institute_of_Science_and_Medicine
A quote will give some idea of the cynicism of this nonsense:
"The Oregon Petition was circulated in April 1998 in a bulk mailing to tens of thousands of U.S. scientists. In addition to the petition, the mailing included what appeared to be a reprint of a scientific paper. Authored by OISM's Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon, and Zachary W. Robinson, the paper was titled "Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" and was printed in the same typeface and format as the official Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Also included was a reprint of a December 1997, Wall Street Journal editorial, "Science Has Spoken: Global Warming Is a Myth, by Arthur and Zachary Robinson. A cover note signed "Frederick Seitz/Past President, National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A./President Emeritus, Rockefeller University", may have given some persons the impression that Robinson's paper was an official publication of the academy's peer-reviewed journal. The blatant editorializing in the pseudopaper, however, was uncharacteristic of scientific papers.
Robinson's paper claimed to show that pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is actually a good thing. "As atmospheric CO2 increases," it stated, "plant growth rates increase. Also, leaves lose less water as CO2 increases, so that plants are able to grow under drier conditions. Animal life, which depends upon plant life for food, increases proportionally." As a result, Robinson concluded, industrial activities can be counted on to encourage greater species biodiversity and a greener planet:
As coal, oil, and natural gas are used to feed and lift from poverty vast numbers of people across the globe, more CO2 will be released into the atmosphere. This will help to maintain and improve the health, longevity, prosperity, and productivity of all people.
Human activities are believed to be responsible for the rise in CO2 level of the atmosphere. Mankind is moving the carbon in coal, oil, and natural gas from below ground to the atmosphere and surface, where it is available for conversion into living things. We are living in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result of the CO2 increase. Our children will enjoy an Earth with far more plant and animal life as [sic] that with which we now are blessed. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the Industrial Revolution.
In reality, neither Robinson's paper nor OISM's petition drive had anything to do with the National Academy of Sciences, which first heard about the petition when its members began calling to ask if the NAS had taken a stand against the Kyoto treaty. Robinson was not even a climate scientist. He was a biochemist with no published research in the field of climatology, and his paper had never been subjected to peer review by anyone with training in the field. In fact, the paper had never been accepted for publication anywhere, let alone in the NAS Proceedings. It was self-published by Robinson, who did the typesetting himself on his own computer...
In addition to the bulk mailing, [Robinson's] website enables people to add their names to the petition over the Internet, and by June 2000 it claimed to have recruited more than 19,000 scientists. The institute is so lax about screening names, however, that virtually anyone can sign, including for example Al Caruba, a pesticide-industry PR man and conservative ideologue who runs his own website called the "National Anxiety Center." Caruba has no scientific credentials whatsoever, but in addition to signing the Oregon Petition he has editorialized on his own website against the science of global warming, calling it the "biggest hoax of the decade," a "genocidal" campaign by environmentalists who believe that "humanity must be destroyed to 'Save the Earth.' . . . There is no global warming, but there is a global political agenda, comparable to the failed Soviet Union experiment with Communism, being orchestrated by the United Nations, supported by its many Green NGOs, to impose international treaties of every description that would turn the institution into a global government, superceding the sovereignty of every nation in the world."
When questioned in 1998, OISM's Arthur Robinson admitted that only 2,100 signers of the Oregon Petition had identified themselves as physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, or meteorologists, "and of those the greatest number are physicists." This grouping of fields concealed the fact that only a few dozen, at most, of the signatories were drawn from the core disciplines of climate science - such as meteorology, oceanography, and glaciology - and almost none were climate specialists. The names of the signers are available on the OISM's website, but without listing any institutional affiliations or even city of residence, making it very difficult to determine their credentials or even whether they exist at all. When the Oregon Petition first circulated, in fact, environmental activists successfully added the names of several fictional characters and celebrities to the list, including John Grisham, Michael J. Fox, Drs. Frank Burns, B. J. Honeycutt, and Benjamin Pierce (from the TV show M*A*S*H), an individual by the name of "Dr. Red Wine," and Geraldine Halliwell, formerly known as pop singer Ginger Spice of the Spice Girls. Halliwell's field of scientific specialization was listed as "biology." Even in 2003, the list was loaded with misspellings, duplications, name and title fragments, and names of non-persons, such as company names."
With "arguments" this bogus, to put it politely, it's no surprise that 70% of people polled in over sixty nations around the world not only believe in global warming, but are willing to accept higher taxes to curb emissions, as long as the money is directed towards that end, and not towards government coffers.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7075759.stm
Random thoughts:
1. The US military's oil consumption of 300-400k bbl/day (*) over the past decade is a rounding error compared with overall US oil consumption of ~20e6 bbl/day. Ditto federal vehicle fleet fuel consumption of 21k bbl/day (**).
2. Turn federal office buildings into "demonstration projects" for conservation technologies like cogeneration, wind-powered HVAC (***), geothermal heat pumps, telecommuting, etc. Replace the entire federal vehicle fleet with PHEV's.
3. Not terribly impressed by CAFE requirements; perhaps they reduce gas consumption...or perhaps they increase miles driven. Supply & demand: If you want to reduce demand for a commodity (gasoline), raise its price (via gas taxes if necessary). Then watch the invisible hand increase average MPG's as market shares for hybrids & SUV's gradually reverse.
4. Mass transit is nice, but the major cultural changes necessitated by intra-city use suggest (to me) that PHEVs may be a more likely solution. As for intercity...medium-haul routes like the Northeast Corridor or SF-to-LA would probably give airlines a run for their money. NYC to LA (or the like)...probably not.
If we want to get a head start on peak oil, I still think we'd need an oil tariff, or gas taxes, or the like, to provide the necessary exploration/conservation incentives. Then let the free market do the rest. The Cato Institute tells me oil futures will save us, but I'm not sure I trust the market to properly price the risks from peak oil & politics 'till it's too late. I could be wrong, however.
(*) See http://www.energybulletin.net/26194.html
(**) "Federal Fleet Report", GSA, Table 1-4, p. 14. Includes USPS.
(***) http://ergosphere.blogspot.com/2005/03/forty-two.html
Matthew has it exactly correct when he writes:
Peak oil may be true, and in a theoretical sense it is: eventually we'll run out of oil. However, even if that time is 20 years from now (and not even peak oil people are saying that), the market will take care of the situation. Prices will rise, consumption will drop, and alternatives will replace oil.
Of course, we should add that this will not happen if we embrace, as President Richard Nixon did, wage and price controls.
What does a basic economics textbook tell you about price controls? They can cause shortages.
I guarantee you that if the federal government made it illegal to sell tomatoes for more than 1 penny per pound, there would be a shortage of tomatoes (and a black market in tomatoes).
Most voting Americans have not taken a college economics course nor do they study economic data from various nations experimenting with different economic policies.
This goes part of the way towards explaining why we have billion dollar social programs like Social Security and Medicare which are contantly teetering on the brink of bankruptcy unless they can slurp up another cool trillion dollar tax increase.
Don't expect politicians to solve the problems America has if American voters are too ignorant to take set aside the months of September and October studying economic data to prepare for the elections in November.
As long as American voters prefer to "wing it" and vote based on slogans and 30 second ads, the politicians will learn to "rise above principle" and give us the misguided economic policies we have, by default, accepted.
I give President Bush credit for cutting taxes on capital gains and dividends and on high marginal income tax rates in the face of the media and Democrat Party attacks calling these tax cuts "Tax cuts for the rich." Of course, any tax cut that will stimulate the economy is going to be tilted towards people who participate in the economy at a high rate (a.k.a. "the rich").
Oil is not the only energy source, just the least expenseive right now. Once oil becomes harder to find (hundreds of miles below the earth's surface), other "alternative energy sources" which are currently unprofitable to find and sell, will become profitable.
Common sense suggests that you sell oil located on the surface of the earth before you drill hundreds of miles below the ocean floor to get oil to bring to market. Similarly, you don't move towards "alternative energy" until the alternative energy is cheaper than oil.
Erin writes: This is true; but isn't there a happy medium somewhere? Are our only choices the street corner or the McMansion, the SUV or the horse and buggy?
The happy medium is getting squeezed ever tighter. Consider the following.
Not all new houses are "McMansions." But even new houses are built (mostly) in the same way, with particle board, cheap mouldings, ugly design, cheap carpeting - often for a premium price. So the next question is, why do people buy these new houses? Why do they buy SUVs to commute from these ugly, overpriced new houses to their jobs?
There are distinct reasons beyond the "consumerism," "materialism," and "selfishness" which Rod and others decry. For one thing, the inner cities are not the centers of employment anymore. Where I live, for instance, or Chicago, this is really obvious. More and more companies are moving farther and farther away from the inner city cores. Why? All sorts of reasons. For one, costs are lower (especially insurance.) Construction costs are lower, too - it's easier to build from scratch in many cases, than retrofit an old, asbestos-filled building for modern technology wiring / electrical requirements.
Not only are the jobs moving out in concentric rings, but the people are too. Why? #1 reason for many families: schools. Only a tiny fraction of Americans homeschool. Less than 10% use private schools. So for many people, that means public school - and it means public school in places where people *perceive* the public schools to be both safe and good. I don't want to get into an argument about the evilgodlessatheist public schools - just mentioning that for many people, that *is* their choice, and they will organize their lives around it.
Of course, not everyone works out in the way-out burbs. Which is where commuting comes into play. Commutes are increasingly long and arduous. Cars are not only means of transportation; they're an extension of peoples' living rooms. If you have to spend 10-15 hours a week in the car, many people are going to pay for one that's comfortable.
Telecommuting was supposed to be the "last best hope" of ending suburban sprawl and long commutes, but for many people, it's not realistic. Neither is public transit, especially when many light rail lines go through areas where the jobs *aren't* - and where people still have to shop, pick up the kids, or run other errands on the way home. Nor do many people leave work at the same time, which makes carpooling difficult.
I seriously feel for young people starting out, having hard decisions to make about where to live and work. Many people have to make a choice between a "crunchy" old house and a long commute, and have to balance out the school issue. It's not easy, and IMO it's not productive to condemn the standard new house/SUV choices as automatically morally depraved.
Kit Stolz: 70% of people polled in over sixty nations around the world not only believe in global warming
This isn't a global warming thread, but I had to respond to this. I'll try to make this my last post on GW.
First, 70% of the the world's people don't even have the IQ (let alone the education) needed to understand the graduate level statistics and mathematical computer models necessary to believe or disbelieve in man made global warming theories. Less than 0.001% of the world's population even know anything about it at all. It's a sad shame that you think scientific truth is a worldwide popularity contest.
99% of global warming types don't know a lick about it, and this is what makes it a religion. Why would people be so passionate regarding something they know nothing about? Faith. They so much want to believe.
To give an example of how hard it is to show MMGW using models: to calcuate the location of the 9th impact on a billard table, you need to take into account the graviational pull of the guy shooting the ball. It's a function of multiplicative error (chaos theory). And the world's temperature patterns are a heck of a lot more complex than a billard table. This is not Newtonian physics; it's a model of the future, for goodness sake.
MI: Good points all.
I would simply point out by the government moving away from liquid fuels will put in place the technology needed to get started for the rest of us. Sort of like the internet.
But I think we need to slow down the process of high gas prices to allow for orderly change, not speed them up with taxes. It all depends on when you think peak oil is hitting. It all depends on if PO is hitting soon (need to ease the pain), or much later (need to prepare).
Rock: First, we can't drill hundreds of miles below the earth's surface, too hot. Right now five miles is a deep well. Several hundred miles can be lava-time!
Second, there is physics of energy involved here, not just economics. There is a point of energy-in energy-out, where your energy invested is more than you get out. This is what happens when you get too deep or too far in the drilling process. The worry is short term disruptions, and it's a big worry.
stefanie: Many people have to make a choice between a "crunchy" old house and a long commute, and have to balance out the school issue. It's not easy, and IMO it's not productive to condemn the standard new house/SUV choices as automatically morally depraved.
Sure, forget the morals. But if costs do get high enough, we will change regardless of morals. Living out of cars like we do is a luxury, not a necessity. It's something to think about.
It's not easy, and IMO it's not productive to condemn the standard new house/SUV choices as automatically morally depraved.
Yes, but I also think Kunstler is correct in calling the situation a clusterf---; it's a complex mess from which it is not easy to extricate ourselves as individuals.
Back to the original thread,
It is easy and true for that matter to consider "overconsumption" to be a vice. The devil is in the details however. People tend to see the consumption of others as "excessive" and their own as reasonable. Where somebody has a big kitchen, somebody else has a big car or perhaps were somebody treasures their speedboat, someone else considers world travel to be essential. It's best to look at our own consumption and be critical before finding the fault with others. IMHO.
If I believed I had the world oil supply calculated down to the hour, day or even decade my first call would be to a commodities broker
No one's trying for that kind of precision. That said, you see what the commodities markets are doing to oil prices now. The exact moment of peak oil will only be seen in the rear view mirror, and that moment will pass unnoticed when it actually occurs.
I can think of spiritual answers to that question, and that accounts for my own choices, but what might be the secular case, if any?
My secular case is something like 'virtue is its own reward.' You try to be the best steward you can because it's the right thing to do.
You might think that Kunstler is representative of all "peakniks," but he's not. All peakniks understand the basic geology of PO, and that PO represents a huge challenge to mankind. But there is a whole spectrum of peaknik responses to the challenge, with plenty of plucky optimists to counter Kunstler's masochistic, nihilistic gloom.
M. David either didn't know that the Oregon Petition was bogus, or doesn't want to believe it -- that's why he truncated that part of my response to his claim that thousands of climate scientists question the IPCC consensus. In fact, a vanishingly small number of climate scientists doubt the existence or the seriousness of the phenomenon.
And one doesn't need a physics degree to know that the climate is changing, with serious consequences. All one needs do is have a good relationship with the natural world. This is why most hunters and fisherman have already noticed the phenomenon, and are concerned about it.
http://www.fieldandstream.com/fieldstream/columnists/conservation/article/0,13199,1194071,00.html
M. David also claims that I wish to decide questions of science by polling, which is, of course, more b.s. I wouldn't spend time reading scientific papers and talking to these folks if that was true. But since he has vowed to shelve his ignorance on this subject, I'll spare you more discussion of recent research.
And one doesn't need a physics degree to know that the climate is changing, with serious consequences. All one needs do is have a good relationship with the natural world. This is why most hunters and fisherman have already noticed the phenomenon, and are concerned about it.
But one needs more than personal experience to know the cause of warming/climate change.
I think we need to slow down the process of high gas prices to allow for orderly change, not speed them up with taxes. It all depends on when you think peak oil is hitting. It all depends on if PO is hitting soon (need to ease the pain), or much later (need to prepare).
M_David - Agreed; WRT peak oil, it does depend on timing. Admittedly, I have a second agenda WRT preparedness (i.e., weaning the US off dependence on energy imports), but we've already had that discussion, so I'll not go there again. I would much prefer to see the oil markets render tariffs, etc., unnecessary by accurately pricing both political risk & peak oil.
It is easy and true for that matter to consider "overconsumption" to be a vice. The devil is in the details however. People tend to see the consumption of others as "excessive" and their own as reasonable.
SVS - Agreed, overconsumption is often in the eye of the beholder. Condemnations of "overconsumption" sometimes strike me as less a matter of morality, and more one of personal preference. De gustibus no est disputandum.
IMHO, many "peakniks" (nice term, Will) erroneously see peak oil as a vehicle for "stealth" condemnation of "overconsumption" (actual or perceived), and for promoting social-reform agendas that _just so happen_ to have the welcome side-effect of reducing oil consumption.
For instance, assume (arguendo) that it would be more cost-effective to retrofit existing McMansions with cogeneration, better insulation, heat pumps than to move suburbanites into smaller houses; and to replace SUVs with PHEVs in lieu of mass transit.
How many peakniks would support this? And how many would gnash their teeth at the idea of suburbia & the car culture surviving peak oil? That the latter might well outnumber the former is foolish, but unfortunately not implausible. First priority should be to deal with the impending energy shortage. If social reform must take a back seat, oh well.
How many peakniks would support this?
And what of the oil required to transport goods, especially food? And the dependence of industrial agriculture on oil?
"There is still an authentic Catholic priest at Georgetown?" Cleveland
"If you judge trying to throw out students unfairly as 'an authentic Catholic priest,' sure." Larry Parker
Let's see, who do I believe, a conservative priest or Larry; Father Schall or Larry? Gosh, that's a tough one!
---------------------------------------
"Nothing is more pointless than issuing grand sweeping generalizations about the naughty, naughty things that 'disordered' people do....Larry makes an excellent point...why the heck should we listen to [Fr. Schall's] grandiose pronouncements about 'us? To exercise moral suasion, you have to have moral standing."
Yeah, right, Sig. Fr. Schall has no moral standing, nor did the man who said:
"You are the salt of the earth; but if salt has lost its taste, how shall it be restored? It is no longer good for anything except to be thrown out and trodden under foot by men."
What a pointless, sweeping generalization!
And what of the oil required to transport goods, especially food? And the dependence of industrial agriculture on oil?
1. I did mention "arguendo".
2. WRT transporting goods: Electrify the rail lines, and shift the, ah, bulk of intercity freight to them. Then use hybrids, ala Fedex (*), to halve the fuel consumption of the remaining trucking fleets. Note that trucks only accounted for ~12% of 2002 US oil consumption, and that (by 2001 stats) intra-city trucking accounted for ~14% of trucks' ton-miles. See tables 1-46a, 1-46b, and 4-5 of BTS's latest "National Transportation Statistics".
3. WRT agricultural oil consumption: Breakdown thereof (**): Fertilizer production (31%), transportation (16%), irrigation (13%), crop drying (5%), & pesticide production (5%) could all be done with other fuel sources, e.g., nuclear-generated electricity, in combination with hydrolysis, electric motors, hybrid vehicles, electric heaters, etc. For any utterly necessary liquid fuels requirements (e.g., operating field machinery), there's coal liquefaction, oil shale/tar sands, or EOR. (Abysmal EROEI's, but they'd sure beat starvation.) I'm not convinced that our current level of oil consumption is a sine qua non of industrial agriculture, but perhaps I'm mistaken.
(*) http://www.fedex.com/us/about/responsibility/environment/hybridelectricvehicle.html
(**) http://www.organicconsumers.org/corp/fossil-fuels.cfm
Simon and Cleveland:
I agree the maliciousness was totally out of Fr. Schall's character. All the more reason I was so stunned by the experience.
BTW, it was a paper in his Introduction to Platonic Philosophy class comparing Plato to George Berkeley. Now, why on earth would I remember something that trivial unless it caused something (almost) that destructive in my own life?
Sorry, Cleveland, but in my mind, a man does not become identical with Jesus just by being a priest. Jesus has moral standing. He can say what he wants, and I'll listen. With other people, I heed another wise saying by that man: by their fruits you shall know them. My dislike of essays that seem piously grandiose to me stands, in any case, without regard for Larry's comment.
"...by their fruits you shall know them." Sig
Bingo!
well, if you see the commercials for CSX (rail), you will invariably note that they claim that they can carry "one ton of cargo 423 miles on one gallon of fuel". Maybe we should start inveting more in rail and mass transit. Yes, it means we need to give up some of the freedom of the road, but ultimately, Rod and Schall are saying what I've been saying for years now. I have other solutions for this, but I'm not yet done writing the book of them. maybe I'll offer some of them up after work.
Yawn. There they go again.
Charles,
After your nap, maybe you could tell us about Psionics!
Cleveland, if I expressed great admiration for a liberal priest, and you then told me he'd done something dastardly to you, I'd be inclined to believe you. Even if I thought you might be wrong, I'd still take your statement into consideration as I reconsidered my admiration. And even if I thought you wrong, I would charitably suppose you might have been mistaken rather than taking pains to mock you in public and imply you were a liar. Just sayin' . . . .
BTW, it was a paper in his Introduction to Platonic Philosophy class comparing Plato to George Berkeley. Now, why on earth would I remember something that trivial unless it caused something (almost) that destructive in my own life?
Larry,
Taking your allegation at face value, there are obviously many possible explanations (e.g., Schall made a mistake which had nothing to do with an ideological vendetta; or, there was some appropriation of someone else's work but not enough to meet the burden of proof, or not enough to merit disciplinary sanctions).
I'm not accusing you of anything, but we don't really "know" anyone via blog comboxes. Knowing both Schall and his character (not to mention the almost comical notion of someone being railroaded out of Georgetown University for having insufficiently right wing views), I'm not able to accept your side of the story as definitive. Honestly, this isn't anything personal against you, but posting unverifiable innuendo against Fr. Schall -- or anybody else -- in this forum is simply not fair.
we must learn that we are "self-insufficient"...one of the most pernicious and false beliefs of our time - that we are or ever can be "self-sufficient."
It's odd or noteworthy to me how Deneen and Schall's thoughts on self-sufficiency mirror those of Big Oil CEOs who say that energy independence is not only impossible to achieve, it is undesirable as well.
I agree, at least in principle that no man, and by extension, nation, is truly an island, entire of itself. (And yes I've heard of Australia, England, etc) But I worry that this idea of necessary self-insufficiency and interdependence can be used to justify and perpetuate all sorts of wasteful, indulgent behaviors and marginalize those would strive to be better stewards of our finite resources.
Simon:
Your attacks are completely personal against me. And you have forced me to tell the entire, ugly story to defend my own integrity. I was trying to shield Fr. Schall from the worst of it, but I no longer can.
I had heard rumors that winter of 1990 (unverifiable, I grant you) that Fr. Schall was upset at me because I had participated in an anti-Gulf War rally (I know, I know -- it was the wrong war for the right reason or the right war for the wrong reason in retrospect, take your pick). But of course, you know how he conducts his courses -- the only things that count for the grade are at the very end of the semester -- the final paper and the final exam, which of course is one essay question. That's it. So he was inscrutable about it at the time.
Finally, I had turned in my final paper on Plato and Berkeley and was taking my final exam -- my last exam at Georgetown, since I had run out of money and was trying to graduate in 3-1/2 semesters (something Fr. Schall well knew, BTW). It was December 21, 1990.
In his inimitable manner, Fr. Schall liked to come up to you during the final exam to distract you with some idle remark. Only his remark to me wasn't so idle.
"Mr. Parker," he said (all of Fr. Schall's students are "Mr. Smith" or "Ms. Jones"), "I'm afraid I'm going to have to bring you up for plagiarism charges for your final paper. We can discuss how you might contest it after the exam."
I hyperventilated for the next 10 minutes as I saw my future destroyed. Without credit for this class, I would need to re-enroll in the spring (and give up my lined-up job) for thousands of dollars I didn't have. If Georgetown would even allow me back, with a plagiarism charge on my record.
Then I realized -- IF I FAILED THE FINAL EXAM, NONE OF IT WOULD MATTER. I could contest the plagiarism charge later, but an F grade for the exam would almost certainly leave me with an F in the course regardless.
Which may, with 17 years' hindsight, have been his intention. (I realize this is speculation, though well-founded IMHO given the malice
I encountered that day.)
So I steeled up every ounce of concentration I had left and finished the exam, just in time. Then I literally hounded Fr. Schall back to his office in the Intercultural Center (the famous Georgetown building with the solar panels).
"You can't just tell me in the middle of an exam I've committed plagiarism," I told him, angry but mostly out of breath. "Besides, the paper is fully footnoted."
"The problem isn't with your footnotes," he said. "I feel the paper is different enough from our class subject matter that you must have submitted it previously to another class. That's plagiarism. So I'm refusing to grade it."
Let's go back a second. This is 1990. I didn't even have a computer -- I had a Selectric-type typewriter. So unless there were carbon marks on the paper (which there weren't) or it was on copy paper (which it wasn't, it was on that onion-skin-type bond paper you can't even use in a copier), that was impossible for Fr. Schall to detect on its face.
"Fr. Schall," I said with increasing desperation, "the Registrar's office is right across the courtyard at White-Gravenor. I will be glad to run over there and get my full transcript with a list of my professors. And I will be glad to have you call every single one of my professors the last three-and-a-half years to ask if they have previously graded this paper."
Fr. Schall stood there pensively for what seemed like forever, but was probably only 2 or 3 minutes.
"I'll grade your paper," he said, with a note of contempt.
But only, of course, when my final grade for the course was posted could I be sure he hadn't turned me in for an investigation.
Ironically, he liked the paper, sort of. I got a B+. I have never been more thankful for a B+ in my life.
I have been the victim of pranks from teachers over the years. I solemnly assure you, Cleveland and anyone else who doubts my integrity simply because of my ideology (as far too many conservatives do, IMHO), this was no prank.
PS -- If someone doubts whether Fr. Schall would hold a grudge against a student for attending an anti-war rally, consider his most recent commentary on Iraq just a couple of months ago (HTTP://):
crisismagazine.com/sense.htm
Kit Stolz: M. David either didn't know that the Oregon Petition was bogus, or doesn't want to believe it
I know all about it. I knew of Robinson through other venues; he taught and did big-time research at Cal Tech, and is a homeschooler (his son was the #1 chemistry pick at MIT, I believe). I disagree with your cut-and-paste talking points, and have read them long ago. I could fisk your response line-by-line, but why bother? You still don't get it. The reason why I didn't respond to your diatribe is that I don't think scientific truth is a popularity contest. Let it go.
My position on MMGW is scientific and dispassionate. I don't care how many self-proclaimed experts think anything, Robinson's crowd or your crowd. I look at the data only. I have an open mind. I read all sides. I look for disclosure and bias. I have no agenda, and would cheerfully believe either way. I think it's fair to observe that you would not. I confess it would be fun to record just how long you would cling to your faith if you were confronted with conclusive evidence otherwise. I would guess a very long time, since you already freak out when somebody merely states the obvious, that:
a) MMGW models are at the minium questionable models, and
b) well over 99% of the people talking about MMGW don't have a clue, and just search for data that supports what they already believe (read: faith-based)
Simon: Your attacks are completely personal against me. And you have forced me to tell the entire, ugly story to defend my own integrity. I was trying to shield Fr. Schall from the worst of it, but I no longer can.
Cry me a river, Larry.
YOU brought this up with the very first post on this thread, libelling Fr. Schall. If you're going to hurl inuendo at someone who isn't a public figure about an incident that no one else was privy to, you're not entitled to have everyone else accept your account at face value just because you're a regular poster here.
I know Schall. I do not know you (no one "knows" anyone by interacting simply through comboxes). I didn't force you to tell any story, and your account above does nothing to substantiate your charges. It's just your side of a story, something no one else can verify.
And as it turns out now -- by your own account -- what Fr. Schall actually did was not, in fact, to try to have you expelled on false plagiarism charges because of your political views. He simply threatened -- briefly -- to have you investigated for plagiarism (with no indication that he was motivated by your views about anything), and then relented when you indicated a willingness to let him call other professors.
Not quite the Right Wing Jackboots kicking in your door.
I might add that my time on the Hilltop predates yours, and that in the pre-computer era the practice of recycling term papers for different professors wasn't exactly uncommon.
"Cleveland, if I expressed great admiration for a liberal priest, and you then told me he'd done something dastardly to you, I'd be inclined to believe you." Sig
I, too, would believe someone who said a liberal priest did something dastardly to them. So what?
If I dictated the full details of the story, which are indeed verifiable, it can't be libel.
Besides, there IS someone who can verify it -- Fr. Schall. You're acting as if I didn't know Fr. Schall, either. Sheesh.
PS -- The plagiarism charges were indeed false; and if they had mistakenly been held true, I probably would have been expelled. If not, it certainly would have taken me years more and thousands of dollars more to graduate Georgetown over something that incontrovertibly, despite what you say, was more than a mere "mistake."
You're right in that I have no idea what his true motivations were -- they can only be guesses. But he certainly had them, given the maliciousness of his act.
(And your idea that I had been suspected of cheating before at Georgetown is preposterous. First of all, as you yourself say, you don't know me as anything but a combox poster. Secondly, I had been accepted to Phi Beta Kappa the semester before -- rare for a junior -- which requires not only high grades but a record of honor. Speaking of libel ...)
PPS -- Fr. Schall most certainly is a public figure. Anyone who has written and spoken as much in his career as he has (he is an brilliant scholar and professor, that I've never denied) qualifies.
To remind everyone why this obscure 17-year-old incident is important:
Prof. Deneen quoted Fr. Schall favorably about the myth of "self-sufficiency." And I was pointing out that Fr. Schall believes it is a myth so strongly that he once took -- people are disputing the word malicious, how about capricious -- action to prove this point to me in a way that would literally have altered the course of my life.
there IS someone who can verify it -- Fr. Schall.
And he hasn't verified it, has he?
(And your idea that I had been suspected of cheating before at Georgetown is preposterous.
That isn't "my idea" at all. I have no reason to believe you plagiarized anything, and frankly couldn't care less.
I merely point out that there's obviously more than one side to the story, as there is to almost EVERY story. Your account -- even if we assume for the sake of argument that every word of it is true -- doesn't demonstrate that a reasonable person in Schall's position might not have suspected you of plagiarism. It certainly doesn't demonstrate that Schall was motivated by any political or personal animus against you.
Since this was a purely private dispute (though your later posts suggests it was really no more than a brief suggestion by Schall), no one besides you and Schall is in a position to verify any of it. Which is exactly why you shouldn't have posted it here.
Simon:
Your last post suggests you have spoken to Fr. Schall about this.
Have you?
Simon:
"Suggestions" don't threaten to ruin people's lives.
Unless they're given by the Mafia.
No, I haven't spoken to Schall about this, Larry. Nor do I intend to. And based on your account of this "incident," it's not likely he'd even remember it.
And stop with the self-pitying comparisons of this trifle to Mafia work, which it isn't, even accepting your embellished with all sorts of bogus claims about Schall's supposed motivation and his fiendish intent to "ruin" your life,
I wasn't comparing Fr. Schall to the Mafia, Simon.
I was comparing YOU with your ridiculous use of the word "suggestion." Fr. Schall didn't "suggest" I had plagiarized; he outright accused me of it.
PS -- Regardless of Fr. Schall's intentions -- and he had to have had SOME intentions, as far as I can tell, under the circumstances -- my life would have been brought to a catastrophic halt if his original charge had held.
And that, contrary to what you seem to believe, is no lie.
Based on the account you posted, Larry, Fr. Schall's intentions appear to have been simply to probe a bit to determine whether you were plagiarizing. And when you offered to let him contact other professors, he relented and didn't press the issue.
No evidence whatsoever of any political agenda on Schall's part. And it's self-pitying nonsense to imagine that such a fleeting, trivial incident 17 years ago nearly "brought to a catastrophic halt" your entire life.
Simon:
It was far more than a probe. It was an accusation. (In the middle of my final exam, no less.)
And you and I both know Fr. Schall is a titan of Georgetown. He could have pushed the charge through had he chosen.
And if he had, you're saying my life would have been okey-dokey? I don't THINK so.
I'm hearing some eerie echoes here. A popular priest is accused of having done something wrong. Responses include the following:
1. This man is a priest, and he says things we like. He can't possibly have done what you say.
2. Anyway, we don't have to listen to anything that comes from you.
3. You are just exaggerating. You embellish, you say things that are "bogus."
4. You are just feeling sorry for yourself. Shame on you.
5. No one but you would even remember something like that.
6. No harm was done. Nothing really happened. You're making a big deal out of nothing.
7. You have no right to speak about this. Be quiet. Shame on you.
8. Who is more important--you or the priest? Obviously it's not you.
9. We need not even demean ourselves by investigating.
10. You are not a good person. You have something wrong with you.
And so forth. In this case, the accuser is a grownup and can presumably take care of himself. But what do you think would happen if a little child, or a teenager, was subjected to such a barrage? It's a really interesting demonstration of how to silence someone, and I'll bet it worked really well when applied in other cases.
Wow, sig, thanks.
David:
I've calmed down overnight, so let's assess this rationally.
Fr. Schall is a brilliant scholar, a prolific writer, an unbelievable teacher, a dedicated priest, and overall (yes) a good man. The very fact his act was so out of character was what shocked me and rocked me to my core -- along with, of course, the timing at the very, and I mean VERY, end of my studies at Georgetown. (I admit I can think of Georgetown professors where such an act wouldn't have surprised me.)
Do I bear a grudge against him? Yes. I'm human. But it doesn't change any of the facts above.
He is also a man who, on the date of December 21, 1990, committed an egregious act of professorial misconduct (NOT priestly misconduct, although his status as a Jesuit made it all the more shocking). The idea that it was simply a matter of incompetence, as Simon suggests, given Fr. Schall's deserved reputation as a man with a steel trap of a mind, is ludicrous.
What were his motivations? He backed down very quickly from the charge I had actually committed plagiarism, an accusation preposterous on its face given my own (previously) outstanding academic reputation and the facts of the work at hand. I gave my own theory above -- that he was trying to shake me into failing his final exam. Why he would have such a grudge against me, I have admitted, I can only speculate. But I have a couple of good ideas -- and if you feel it was irresponsible of me to share them, so be it.
And the fact is undeniable that, given my particular circumstances at the time of the exam, if the charge had stuck despite my protests, my academic career would have been destroyed.
Simon, you seem to think the two sets of facts above cannot be reconciled. Quite the contrary -- OF COURSE they can be reconciled. Humans are complex animals, as Fr. Schall most of all would acknowledge.
Have you ever read or seen a David Mamet play? Heck, David Mamet has written plays about parallel conflicts between college professors and students ... the key, of course, as sig wonderfully stated above, being the power imbalance.
Which goes back to the issue of "self-sufficiency" which started this whole debate.
In this case, the accuser is a grownup and can presumably take care of himself. But what do you think would happen if a little child, or a teenager, was subjected to such a barrage? It's a really interesting demonstration of how to silence someone, and I'll bet it worked really well when applied in other cases.
No. In this case the accuser is an anonymous internet poster, whose own subsequent account of the "incident" contradicts his original libel that Schall "tried (and failed) to have me thrown out of the Hilltop on (false) plagiarism charges" because "I did not brook his conservative line."
It now turns out that, by Larry's account, Schall did NOT actually "try" to have him thrown out, but merely raised the specter of an investigation (which, for all any of us know, may well have had a reasonable basis in fact). And nothing at all in Larry's further account backs up his inference that Schall's words were prompted by any political or personal animus.
If you're in the habit of taking at face value anonymous or pseudonymous blog allegations against other people, it reflects rather poorly on your judgment.
He is also a man who, on the date of December 21, 1990, committed an egregious act of professorial misconduct (NOT priestly misconduct, although his status as a Jesuit made it all the more shocking). The idea that it was simply a matter of incompetence, as Simon suggests, given Fr. Schall's deserved reputation as a man with a steel trap of a mind, is ludicrous.
I have not suggested that any incompetence was involved.
I have suggested that, for all anyone else can tell, Schall MAY have made a mistake, OR he MAY have had a reasonable basis for his supposition that your work was plagiarized (which could be true even if your work was not, in fact, plagiarized).
Frankly, I don't care. And nothing in your account gives credence to the notion that this fleeting conversation with Schall involved misconduct, much less "egregious" misconduct, or even that it was particularly noteworthy.
What I do care about is your coming on here and announcing, as though it were a fact to be acknowledged by all, that Fr. Schall "tried" to have you thrown out of Georgetown (even though you later admit he did not, in fact, try), and that he did so because you refused to "brook his conservative line" (when your own account includes not a scintilla of evidence that politics or personality had anything to do with the matter). That's libel.
Thanks, Simon. Good to know that a pseudonymous blogger has impugned my judgment! Perhaps you'd like to send me your real name and credentials so that I might evaluate your fitness to evaluate me. : )
You're right, of course, that no one here is necessarily who they appear to be. And you are also correct in your belief that Larry's charges in no way obligate you to believe that Schall has done something wrong. I think my basic point stands, however, with regard to the way in which people who criticize the more powerful are treated. You and Cleveland could have responded by saying something along the lines of "Well, Larry, if that happened, it would be very troubling. I know Fr. Schall personally, and that seems so unlike what I know of him. So I'm sure you'll understand if I think you may have been mistaken." Instead, you chose to attack Larry personally, imply that he was not truthful, etc. All of this was done just as if "Larry" were a real person, though as you point out, you can't actually know anything about him for sure.
If Larry is, as you imply, not even a real person, then I guess he can't really hurt Fr. Schall, either. The irony of it is, that if you'd responded more temperately, this whole thing would not have been blown up as much as it has.
We do take each other seriously to some extent here, and treat each other as if we were all real. That being the case, I still think it's interesting how our virtual games with each other reflect reality. I take nothing at face value--but I do tend to presume truthfulness on the part of commenters, unless I have some reason to think otherwise. There would be little point in engaging in discussions with mere shadows, otherwise.
"It's a really interesting demonstration of how to silence someone, and I'll bet it worked really well when applied in other cases." Sig
There are people--indeed, an entire culture and its political party and media--who developed the despicable "political correctness" tactic to silence people who don't think or believe as they do; baseless accusations, straw man arguments, putting words in peoples' mouths, etc., all designed to change the focus of the debate from the stated facts. It never works.
Funny, Cleveland--I think I'm agreeing with you, though I'm not sure you meant me to! Yes, indeed, such behavior is despicable, whoever uses it. I guess we probably do disagree about who those people might be, though, at times. I also have to disagree about whether it works or not. Sadly, I think it does, all too often.
As with the thread peripherally invloving another controversy, I wasn't going to comment (and in fairness, this thread is very far off topic from its peak-oil theme and I wish Rod had been able to intervene; I understand very well that this isn't his full-time job, but I prefer more active moderation), but: I don't assume that anyone posting on an Internet forum is necessarily who they say they are, unless they post under their real full name (which I wouldn't do). From research, Larry Parker appears to be very real, and posts forthrightly under his full name. (I don't think this thread was the place for the plagiarism dispute, though, and I agree with some of Simon's points.) I have no connection with anyone involved in this story, nor with Georgetown University.
Here's an interesting question, folks:
Why is it that we automatically believe Rod's anecdotes about schools in Dallas (as he gave in one of his recent posts on illegal immigration) but we automatically disbelieve my anecdotes about schools in Washington, D.C. -- in fact, a specific school, so the anecdote is more verifiable?
Could it be the ideology of the poster? Hmmm ...
BTW, thanks sig. And thanks NNTT -- frankly, if Simon hadn't been so concerned about destroying my reputation to fellow CCers, I wouldn't have wanted to escalate it, either.
PPS -- Simon, you continue to willfully misstate the circumstances and gravity of what happened. Acting almost like ... well, YOU were there and therefore able to disprove my statements. So since we're now in the business of doubting each other's identities here ... are YOU Fr. Schall?
(BTW, if I were deposed in a court of law, I would say exactly the same things as I have said in this blog. And after a neutral investigation, there would be no threat whatsoever of a perjury charge -- which means there would be no threat whatsoever of a libel charge. Making your own charge against me, well, libelous.)
Larry, I'm sorry, but that's not a valid question and comparison. Rod is a journalist, and while one may presume that standards are a bit lax in a personal blog, he has greater responsibility for verifying his facts and faces greater consequences for posting something that either can't be confirmed. The rest of us, you, me, Sig, Simon, Cleveland, we all have no such standards for which we bear objective responsibility.
You have more than enough cause to take this tangent personally. I agree with that completely. Comparing it to something Rod posts on this blog -- where his motivations regularly include a devil's-advocate intention to spur discussion -- is just not valid.
Being the focus of skepticism is never easy and usually rather uncomfortable. I've sat in that seat many times.
I'm reminded of song lyrics, apologies to Jim Croce:
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with online skepticism.
Until the Web enhancement that allows us to reach through our screens and grab the person on the other end, to shake 'em, skepticism remains akin to a force of nature. It rarely profits one to try to fight it.
;-)
Why is it that we automatically believe Rod's anecdotes about schools in Dallas (as he gave in one of his recent posts on illegal immigration) but we automatically disbelieve my anecdotes about schools in Washington, D.C. -- in fact, a specific school, so the anecdote is more verifiable?
I was going to let this thing drop, Larry, but since you persist, here's the deal:
Blogging is impersonal. Discussions and debates here are useful and interesting to the extent participants appeal to reason, or to facts that can be verified by everyone, usually through published reports. Personal anecdotes are helpful and appropriate to the extent they illustrate experiences which generally ring true with others. (e.g., "Thanks to sprawl, the roads in my area are so jammed with traffic that it takes me an hour to drive 10 miles to my home every night.).
What's not appropriate are (1) unverifiable allegations directed at a specific person, or (2) attempts to use one's unverifiable personal experience to clinch an argument and silence one's opponents.
if Simon hadn't been so concerned about destroying my reputation to fellow CCers, I wouldn't have wanted to escalate it, either.
You continue to use red herrings to shift away from the issue here. I have no interest in "destroying your reputation." I merely objected to YOUR patently unfair attempt to destroy Fr. Schall's reputation. That my objection was reasonable borne out by the fact that your original allegation now turns out to have been, to put it mildly, grossly exaggerated:
1. It is NOT TRUE that Fr. Schall "tried (and failed)" to have you thrown out of Georgetown. He told you he thought your paper was plagiarized, but then he relented and agreed not to press the issue before you even left the room.
2. It is NOT TRUE that Fr. Schall indicated (or gave a reasonable person grounds to believe) that his comments about possible plagiarism were improper or motivated by personal or political animus against you.
So since we're now in the business of doubting each other's identities here ... are YOU Fr. Schall
No, I am not. Nor am I in regular contact with him, nor have I spoken to him about this trifle.
It's another red herring to suggest (as sigilaris also does) that I doubt your identity. I have no reason to doubt it -- and couldn't care less.
My point is simply that, as illustrated by the horrific Megan Meiers story which you have (eloquently, BTW) blogged about elsewhere, anyone can say anything online about anyone. So when you hurl a specific charge of impropriety against a specific person -- you'd better be in a position to back it up. In this case, you aren't.
Simon:
Megan Meier's parents never would have known what really happened to their daughter either if not for one of the girls who Mrs. Drew brought into her diabolical scheme confessing to her own parents out of guilt -- who, in turn, confessed to the Meiers. So your own example really isn't applicable.
Look, I thought I already agreed with my David Mamet reference that it was a he-said/he-said situation that no outsider is probably going to agree on 100%, either way. (Oleanna, anyone?)
What angers me is that you AUTOMATICALLY presumed Fr. Schall was 100% right and that I was 100% wrong. And that you have and continue to willfully misstate back to the board my description of what happened. And that you have and continue to willfully minimize to the board the potentially disastrous consequences of Fr. Schall's actions, intended or otherwise, and whatever their motivations if intentional.
(I also realize that conservatives always disagree, and liberals always agree, that the personal can be political. I think that's a big part of the problem here, actually. I honestly thought, given Fr. Schall's prominent views in the OP in a very ironic way from my own experience with him, that this was an applicable example of the personal being political -- particularly because Fr. Schall IS a public figure. I didn't mean for it to escalate the way it did either, but c'est la vie.)
Franklin:
I understand your point. I wasn't REALLY meaning to compare myself to Rod. It is his blog, not mine, you're absolutely right. On the other hand, I have almost as much professional experience in journalism and writing as he does, even if he has advanced much further in the profession.
So I don't think it's fair to say I have 0% credibility if Rod has 100%, particularly since I post with my actual name IRL and can thus be at least googled. (I don't have 100% either by that scale -- again, Rod's blog, not mine -- but I think I deserve the benefit of the doubt, say, 51%. Which I have most definitely NOT received in this case.)
PS to both of you -- There is SOME blogger on Bnet who thinks I have a bit of credibility as a writer, if you scan the various Bnet bloggers' entries for today ...
Larry and Simon,
I don't mean to belabor your conflict here, but I respect you both too much to not at least mention some things from a neutral POV. That's important to know here: I am not implying personal support for either of you. Sympathy for Larry, yes, having been in a similar situation myself several times, I can't avoid that sympathy. But Simon's general points are important, too.
The key usage in my previous post is "objective responsibility". I meant that to keep plenty of room for any individual's personal (subjective being the implied complement) commitment to integrity and honesty in written posts. I don't mean this to be at all gratuitous: you both demonstrate that commitment, and I honor you both for it.
Larry has the right to share his personal experience, and to do so assertively. The reader -- me, Simon, anyone -- has the right to be skeptical of the details of that experience as it has been expressed in text form.
There is a trap. It is ubiquitous and insidious. It's the natural tendency to fill in the gaps, and acquire assumptions about the unwritten aspects of anyone's stated points. We ascribe motive, attitude, underlying and attached beliefs and opinions. Often, our assumptions are correct. Often, our assumptions are dead wrong. It is easy to start out being civil in a discussion with strangers, but it becomes very difficult to maintain that civility in the roller coaster ride of assumptions and their proof and disproof.
I apologize if that comes across as lecturing. I am passionately interested in online community -- and all of the implications of that term as we compare ourselves here with real-life community -- and I am inspired to share my views on it at the drop of a hat (and I'm not wearing one). ;-)
Franklin, Thank you for your good counsel and characteristically thoughtful and temperate words.
Larry, I apologize if my language has come across as a personal attack on you. In re-reading my posts on this thread, I do not believe I have attacked your character. It wasn't and isn't my intention to do so.
What set me off is your specific post at the top of this thread, insinuating improper conduct by someone I happen to know (based on your personal assumptions about what his motives were).
sigilaris followed that up with a post dismissing Fr. Schall's moral authority as having been discredited by his conduct -- based on her apparent assumption that your account of what Schall said or did, AND your interpretation of his motives, were entirely correct.
For all the reasons noted above, I remain highly skeptical of your interpretation of this incident. If you wish to interpret my skepticism as a personal attack on your character, that's your prerogative, though I hope you will choose not to do so.
But I believe very strongly that posts such as the one that led off the comments on this thread are not appropriate and in most cases are a disservice to truth.
Simon:
Which gets to my point above about the perennial conservative v. liberal conflict about whether the personal can ever be political. So if that's all this is, after umpteen posts, I'll gladly drop it. (Though I'm still disappointed you refuse to trust me on that personal basis -- we'll never agree politically, obviously.)
Franklin:
Your counsel is wise and appreciated. Ever thought of diplomacy?
Larry:
Ever thought of diplomacy?
You're handing me an opening for my story -- ya know, the one that allows me to claim sympathy for your story -- and it's not really necessary here. Suffice it to say that I have thought about what else I could be doing, and I'm 51 years old, so you can do the math for where my thoughts have gone and the complexity of them. ;-)
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