Thank you, E.J., for writing a really smart column today identifying why Huckabee is connecting with certain voters. Excerpt:
In a report issued in May 2005, the Pew Research Center pointed to the rise of a new group within the Republican alliance it labeled "pro-government conservatives." Pew sees this group accounting for just under a third of the GOP's core support.The report described them as "broadly religious and socially conservative, but they deviate from the party line in their backing for government involvement in a wide range of policy areas, such as government regulation and more generous assistance to the poor."
They sound like Huckabee conservatives -- or what conservative writers Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam called "The Party of Sam's Club" in a 2005 Weekly Standard article that they have expanded into a book to be published next year.
"On domestic policy," say Douthat and Salam, the Republican Party "isn't just out of touch with the country as a whole, it's out of touch with its own base." (Their emphasis.) Reaching such voters requires "talking about economic insecurity as well as about self-reliance." That's what Huckabee does.
[snip]
If you had to bet, you'd wager that the Republican establishment will eventually crush Huckabee. But the rebellion he is leading is a warning to Republicans. The faithful are restive, tired of being used, and no longer willing to do the bidding of a crowd that subordinates Main Street's values to Wall Street's interests.
Meanwhile, Noam Scheiber, over on the excellent Stump campaign blog he and Mike Crowley write at TNR, poses an intriguing question: what if Huckabee loses the primary contest? Obviously the GOP establishment is going to try to stop him any way they can. What if they succeed? Here's Noam, commenting on the GOP elite chorus that Huck is not up to the demands of the office:
Okay, fine. But keep in mind: It's one thing to make this kind of argument against a Harriet Miers, a crony of the president who had no obvious popular support. It's quite another thing to make this argument against an extremely likeable politician who's become the overwhelming favorite of conservative evangelicals and is now tied or leading in several national polls. How do you essentially tell one-third or more of your party that they don't know what they're doing, that they're a bunch of rubes?Republicans have won the votes of downscale evangelicals for years by arguing that Democrats condescend to them and sneer at them behind their backs. Well, how do you think they're going to respond if East-coast conservative elites start doing the same thing--but in full public view? My guess is not well.
That's my guess too. But then, the perennial question: "Where are they gonna go?" It's not like the Democratic Party is opening the door to social conservatives.
This year.
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As voters, evangelical Christians have distinguished themselves as patsies. They'll line up to vote for any candidate whgo looks conservative and promises to end abortion -- no matter how farfetched or cynical the claim. I would like to believe that they care about other issues, but see no reason to believe that. Expect nothing new from them, and you won't be disappointed.
Rod:
I agree with you on Rudy these days, but what makes you so SURE?
Of course E.J. Dionne gave a brilliant analysis. He's the best political commentator in America.
Um, outside Dallas, Texas, of course :-)
Why Huck connects with me, is because he at least comes across as "real." Maybe it's a facade, but I don't think so. I also feel that way to a certain degree about McCain. But Huck holds positions that I agree with. I would love to see the Fair Tax put in place. The principles he list on his issues site tell me that when he becomes president and gets the advisers around him, that he has the ability to make intelligent decisions on these issues.
But, and I think this is a big one, he can communicate. That is a necessary requirement for the office because that is mostly what it is about. Moving people to get things done. Like Regan was effective at doing.
He seems to have some baggage, but nothing that I can see will derail him. My prediction is he will not only get the nomination, but will win the general election too. (I predicted GW Bush would be president when he was governor of our state too, 1 for 1!)
I find it a little funny that Democrats keep saying if he gets the nomination that he will get trounced. If they really believed that, they wouldn't say that in hopes he would get the nomination. Indeed, they would be pretending to be supporters. That they are publicly saying it says to me they fear him in the general election.
But he comes across as real, has a positive message, and can communicate effectively with people. That, and I like his stance on the issues which I see as conservative, makes him the most likely for my vote. That's why he connects with me, anyway. Other's mileage may vary.
Frankly, if the only pro-life candidate supported socialized medicine, amnesty for illegals, and higher taxes, he'd still have my vote.
My sentiments exactly more or less.
Why Huck connects with me, is because he at least comes across as "real." Maybe it's a facade, but I don't think so ... he comes across as real, has a positive message, and can communicate effectively ....
Call me paranoid, but Dubya came across as very real in both campaigns, was generally positive, and could talk to people on their level - especially when contrasted with android Gore. And Dubya is "real" and "positive" - really, positively certain that America has begun on his watch to eradicate evil from the world (listen to his appalling second inaugural).
Huckabee has a reputation as aloof, a bit manipulative and vindictive. Sorry - been there, done that, and not eager to go again.
I guess Beliefnet doesn't do strikeout hypertext. "Exactly more or less" was meant to have the first word strcken.
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