Crunchy Con

Come and get us

Thursday January 31, 2008

Categories: Decline and fall
While President Bush talks as if he's going to keep our troops indefinitely in Iraq, and John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, says we'll stay a hundred years if we need to, an independent commission established by Congress has just...
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Comments
Karen
January 31, 2008 12:03 PM

The funny part is, they still (though Osama told them directly) haven't figured out that the strategy is NOT a frontal attack, or even another stealth bombing.

It is the same strategy used during the Russian war in Afghanistan, that we taught them.

You lure the military here, and there, and everywhere seeking out phantom threats and hit and run attacks. Not only to stretch it so thin you can poke holes in it, but also simply to... financially bleed them dry.

They won that war in Afghanistan, not because they bombed Russia, or overwhelmed the military forces, but because they practically bankrupted the Soviet Union with their attempt to 'win'.

octopus
January 31, 2008 12:13 PM

They won that war in Afghanistan, not because they bombed Russia, or overwhelmed the military forces, but because they practically bankrupted the Soviet Union with their attempt to 'win'.

They also won because we were bankrolling them, funneling them arms, and actively training and recruiting. So here is the question, where is the money coming from now?

Karen
January 31, 2008 12:18 PM

Money isn't a problem. Bin Laden has huge amounts of personal wealth. But likely? No, not Iran or Pakistan. You want a source of incredible income? You're going to have to look toward where most of them COME FROM. Saudi Arabia.

But.. We certainly did NOT give them more money than the Soviet Union had access to. They didn't NEED a ton of money for this strategy.

It is always cheaper to hit and run, they use volunteers, that they don't need to arm all that well.

A single person with an IED scattered here and there is a lot cheaper than moving thousands of troops, having to deal with supply lines, infrastructure, bases..

Even if we cut off all funding, they could still use this strategy effectively.

After all, we managed it quite well during the American Revolution.

Fr Basil
January 31, 2008 12:23 PM

Rod,

This is all disingenious in a number of ways. In the first place, chemical, biological, and nuclear attacks are not the kind of thing that traditional forces can deal with AS THEY HAPPEN. A nuclear strike on an American city, or anthrax released via the Postal Service, or a poisoned water supply can't be dealt with with boots, guns, and airplanes WHEN the attack is launched.

We may not be prepared for such an attack (and I'll bet we aren't), but what does that preparedness have to do with our troop levels in Iraq, or walking the American streets for that matter?

The preparedness for these attacks would seem to be two-pronged:

1. PREVENTION. This means using (and developing) our intelligence capabilities, plus preemption. What shape "preemption" takes is open to debate, but how are we really supposed to RESPOND to, say, neurotoxins poured into one of those reservoir lakes that surround Dallas-Fort Worth? It needs to be stopped BEFORE it happens.

2. CIVIL RESPONSE. This means hardening our entire society's armor. We need to become as vigilant as the Israelis, with clear eyes about the threats that exist, and clear plans for dealing with them. Can the military help with this? It seems unlikely.

I'll close by suggesting that while Rumsfeld did himself no favors, and may or may not have been the right man for the SecDef job, his understanding that the methods of conducting war are changing seem to be rather prescient. This new kind of warfare, conducted on U.S. soil, isn't something that can be done with bigger and bigger armies.

Jon Swales
January 31, 2008 12:50 PM

Fr Basil,

I agree. They best way to prepare ourselves for an attack on US soil is by having our first responders trained and prepared to deal with a variety of scenarios.
Any forseeable attack on the United States is not going to be something an armored division can be dispatched to rout.

Rod,

I don't understand that fear people associate with having a long term troop prescence in Iraq. At some point in the near future, our troop prescence will be pretty much indistinguishable from our current posture in Kosovo, Korea, Japan or Germany. I'm unconcerned about having a few 10s of thousands of troops in Iraq if they are operating as a stabilization force and aren't taking casualties.

Alicia
January 31, 2008 1:39 PM

Great interview, and post. Thanks.

MI
January 31, 2008 2:09 PM

I don't understand that fear people associate with having a long term troop prescence in Iraq. At some point in the near future, our troop prescence will be pretty much indistinguishable from our current posture in Kosovo, Korea, Japan or Germany. I'm unconcerned about having a few 10s of thousands of troops in Iraq if they are operating as a stabilization force and aren't taking casualties.

Well, this assumes that at some point in the not-too-distant future, our troops in Iraq will no longer be suffering combat-related casualties. Pretty big assumption. And I say that as someone who doesn't quite agree with Rod's take on the Iraq War.

That aside, maintaining an American garrison in Iraq (or anywhere else in the Mideast) means continued American concern for the territorial disputes of southwestern Eurasia. (Why else would you keep the troops there?) If you're someone - like me - who doesn't think such disputes are any of America's business, then long-term stationing of troops even in a peaceful Iraq becomes a matter of concern.

And yes, I would withdraw our troops from Europe. Should've done that when USSR fell apart. East Asia I'm not so sure about, but that's a whole 'nother post.

dave
January 31, 2008 2:30 PM

It's more important to defend nations than ourselves! I don't know, maybe if we didn't spend all this money policing the Mid-East, and elsewhere, getting the funding for national defense and emergency response wouldn't be an issue? If we're already borrowing money to pay for wars, and payoff dictators while spreading democracy to Iraq, maybe we're hurting our defense at home? How about national defense, and not foreign defense, for once.

Jon Swales
January 31, 2008 3:34 PM

MI,

I don't care so much for the territorial disputes of the Middle East. That's why I'm glad that we've tried to stay out of the way of the Kurdistan issue. I am concerned with ensuring that the nations in that area don't provide safe havens for terrorists or WMD programs and that oil produced in the region can be safely brought to market.

dave,

When you are the preeminent power on the globe foreign defense is often good national defense. Obviously we need to be careful and wise where and how we intervene. But I would hold that our intervention and prescence in Korea, as an example, has been good for Korea as well as the United States.

Casey
January 31, 2008 3:49 PM

Kind of reminds me of CBS's "Jericho." A nuclear attack happens in the U.S. (granted, from within) while most military are overseas. Truth can be stranger than science-fiction...

MI
January 31, 2008 5:05 PM

I am concerned with ensuring that the nations in that area don't provide safe havens for terrorists or WMD programs

That being said, I'm not convinced that the only way of denying sanctuary to terrorists is permanent American occupation of a given area, or American sponsorship of a friendly client/satellite regime in said area.

Consider this alternative: Terrorists attack America. America locates the regime(s) that sheltered said terrorists, invades, and captures & executes the leader(s) who provided aid & comfort to our enemies. Then we leave, with the warning that similar misbehavior in the future will prompt repeated intervention.

We might also want to consider beefing up border security (our southern border & ports come to mind).

WMD are only an issue if they're deliverable to American soil. Again, border security (and perhaps missile defense).

and that oil produced in the region can be safely brought to market.

This only matters so long as we're dependent on imported oil. Between energy conservation on the one hand, and nuclear/wind/solar/tar sands/oil shale on the other, continued American dependence on imported energy sources hardly seems inevitable.

When you are the preeminent power on the globe foreign defense is often good national defense.

Insofar as "foreign defense" means interventions aimed at preventing a hostile power from gaining hegemony over Eurasia (or the Eastern Hemisphere), this is correct. Looking at the state of Eurasia today, however, it seems unlikely that such hegemony will be within reach of any power for the foreseeable future, even without American interventions.

Jon Swales
January 31, 2008 6:12 PM

MI,

I agree with most of what you are saying. Energy independence would go a long way toward solving many of our problems.

Charles Cosimano
January 31, 2008 6:22 PM

We have never really thought about defending ourselves from attack. The best defense that we have, and had during the Cold War, was the ability to strike back.

Mecca is a sitting target for nuclear weapons and, all protestations to the contrary aside, is likely already targeted for destruction if such an attack were to occur. And if it is not, god help any sitting President who did not destroy it in retaliation.

You cannot secure everything, you cannot stop everyone. What you can do, the only thing that you can do, is make the price so high that even the most fanatical will not dare do it.

Chris Mills
January 31, 2008 7:39 PM

Striking Mecca would be a ridiculous response. I don't like Islam but you can't destroy a cultural landmark like that. Regardless of what one thinks of their religion that would be a tragedy on par with the sacking of Rome and Byzantium.

Jack
February 2, 2008 8:31 AM

Congress fiddles while LA burns! What else is new?
While energy independence is a great idea it remains just that, an idea.
A political body, mentally challenged, bunch of idiots in congress will not even allow drilling on 2000 measly bug ridden tundra acres to help ourselves. Until other energy sources are developed that will carry the load, like it or not, oil is necessary.
The same mentally challenged folk don't like dams, Can't stand nuclear, hate coal, aren't too fond of windmills cluttering up the desert, hate mining so of course one will not have material to make solar panels with. Energy saving light bulbs are bad stuff too ya know.
Alaska has more oil reserves than one could believe and can produce it in a safe manner but NO. Some perceived notion that it could harm a lemming or some other as yet unknown excuse will not allow rational thought. One must wonder what the real agenda coming from the left really is!

AnotherBeliever
February 3, 2008 2:47 PM

We may not be prepared for such an attack (and I'll bet we aren't), but what does that preparedness have to do with our troop levels in Iraq, or walking the American streets for that matter?

The preparedness for these attacks would seem to be two-pronged:

1. PREVENTION. This means using (and developing) our intelligence capabilities, plus preemption. What shape "preemption" takes is open to debate, but how are we really supposed to RESPOND to, say, neurotoxins poured into one of those reservoir lakes that surround Dallas-Fort Worth? It needs to be stopped BEFORE it happens.

2. CIVIL RESPONSE. This means hardening our entire society's armor. We need to become as vigilant as the Israelis, with clear eyes about the threats that exist, and clear plans for dealing with them. Can the military help with this? It seems unlikely.

I'll close by suggesting that while Rumsfeld did himself no favors, and may or may not have been the right man for the SecDef job, his understanding that the methods of conducting war are changing seem to be rather prescient. This new kind of warfare, conducted on U.S. soil, isn't something that can be done with bigger and bigger armies.

Posted by: Fr Basil | January 31, 2008 12:23 PM

Israel has every man and woman for active duty service for three years and two years respectively, and many for Reserve duty for much longer than that. If they are attacked, their "civil response" would be trucked in on Army convoys, flown in by military choppers, and order would be kept by military means. Israel, for all its being a democracy, does not score too highly on certain measures of civil rights. That being said, I think err a little too far in banning all Active Military action within our borders (that is the law, and it can be rescinded in part, by emergency order.)

I agree with you that prevention and civil response must also play an important role. The military is good at moving large amounts of personnel and material at short notice. The civilian sector is good at keeping prices under control (as long as they don't fall under a defense contract, apparently!) The FBI plays an important role, as well as Customs, Border Patrol, and the Coast Guard and National Guard.

The point of this article is that it is normally the National Guard units we would rely on in a true emergency - to fly and convoy into a disaster zone, with medics and doctors, food, transport for evacuation, military enforcement of quarantine if necessary, and simply the thousands of (well-vaccinated - Anthrax and Smallpox are the norm for military now) hands available for the grunt work of tossing sandbags.

I was in Baghdad during Katrina. They actually had to de-mob some folks out of a combat zone to go home to deal with that. They were close to going home anyway, a lot of them, but it was incredible - they did not even know if their loved ones were okay, as communications in the Katrina-struck area were disrupted any lots of people were on the move. They knew they'd get home, and be put to work almost immediately, even if every effort would be made to keep guys who'd just got done patrolling Baghdad from having to patrol New Orleans to quickly.

The point is 80% of Nat Guard units are rated NOT READY. That's because every time you deploy, you leave a lot of your equipment in country. That's simply how they replace equipment now, every new rotation of soldiers brings its gear. You go home and you wait for new gear. For Active Duty, we get our replacements in gear pretty quickly, personnel a little less quickly. I'm not going to put timelines out there, but suffice it to say, it's not optimal. Nat Guard units are on the bottom of the totem pole as far as priority goes. And that's backwards. Their MAIN OBJECTIVE is to be able to act inside our own borders. If they can't do that, we need to grow them in a hurry, and equip them.

That's one problem with maintaining current troop levels in Iraq. Our military isn't big enough to handle this for long. You can argue back and forth how long is too long. The Secretary of Defense recognizes this, but Iraq's security may well trump preparedness at home in the short run.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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