If there's one lesson so far in this political year, it's this: pay no attention to conventional wisdom. When I see that CW portrays next Tuesday's GOP primary in Michigan as a Romney vs. McCain contest, I wonder just how much attention these sages are paying to the polls there. It's a dead heat between Romney and Huckabee, with McCain trailing by six points. Sure, McCain, who won Michigan in 2000, could get a bounce out of NH and close the gap -- but at whose expense?
Michigan is a state that's been harder hit than most by the economic downturn. It's tailor-made for Huckabee and his economic nationalism in that respect. Huck's line about how voters want a president who looks like the people they work with, not the guy who fired them could be potent in Michigan. If McCain and Romney split the "regular Republican" vote, Huck could eke out a win. Also, in a month-old Rasmussen poll, likely Michigan GOP voters said that aside from the economy, immigration is the issue they worry most about. Romney has been tough on immigration, but if Huck can tout his embrace of the Krikorian plan, Romney's advantage there could be neutralized.
John Ellis, one of the best GOP analysts, thinks that once again, the pros are underestimating Huck:
What New Hampshire delivered last night was a revitalized Sen. John McCain, which makes Michigan a three-way race, which makes Gov. Huckabee's campaign there viable. If ever there was an electorate that is ripe for Gov. Huckabee's mix of economic populism and compassionate Christianity, it's down-trodden Michigan Republican primary voters. McCain won there in 2000 with strong support from Independents and he will direct all of his efforts at getting those independents to double down, one last time. Romney will throw everything he has at Michigan, to avoid elimination. Given a McCain surge and a Romney splurge, it's not hard to imagine a three-way split, with Huckabee doing surprisingly well in the collar counties around Detroit and drawing from the well of his base in the western and northwestern counties. Who knows, he might even win Michigan, which would set up South Carolina for a kill.
If Huck wins Michigan, South Carolina is his. How do you stop him then?
The wild card in Michigan is the independent vote. The Dems aren't having a primary there this year, so there will plausibly be a significant crossover vote of independents and Dems who want to vote in the GOP primary. I find it impossible to see these voters coming out for Romney, the most regular of the Republicans. Will they come out for McCain? I'm doubting that, at least not in big numbers. McCain is most identified now with the Iraq War, which as we know is very unpopular among Dems and independents. Huck backs the Iraq war too, but McCain owns the issue. I'm thinking that if Huck can pound his Main Street populist message, and get lots of free media in Michigan, he could win over enough independents and Democrats to make a difference in a close three-way race.
Huck, go to Mecosta. Go make a pilgrimage to the Russell Kirk Center there. Take cameras and talk about Kirkean themes of cultural renewal, traditionalism, and the moral basis for our economy and social order. It won't hurt you one bit to burnish your conservative credentials by visiting the home of the godfather of modern American conservatism.
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Duncan Hunter, the true conservative running in '08!
Pixie
The previous two posters are right on about Duncan Hunter. He has been compared to Ronald Reagan in his thoughts and strategies, by none other than Michael Reagan himself.
Michigan voters really need to take a long, hard look at Duncan. This man has been slighted by the MSM and the other elitists trying to tell you that John McCain or the other amnesty guys will do right by you. Not...
Look at Duncan's record on numbersusa.com and see for yourself, and read his biography on his website. All of this information will change your mind about McCain and Huckabee (illegal immigration apologists), and Romney who will continue to support HB-1 visas and trade agreements with China. if you don't want more amnesty nonsense, the only candidate who has done anything about securing the borders (in California)is Duncan Hunter.
Illegal immigration is getting worse all over the country. Lately the drug dealers have been using gunfire and grenades at our Arizona border. Duncan Hunter is the only presidential candidate who has stood his ground on this issue from the start of his campaign. We need his help to protect our nation's sovereignty...and he can do it!
He does not pander to the elite business's or media as the others do.
Michagan doesn't need this! See what is happening in AR. Romney, Hunter and Thompson have EXCELLENT immigration score records; McCain is rated ABSYMAL. Illegals should not be taking your jobs!!!
Report: Illegal immigrants resulted in lower wages for Arizonans
The Associated Press : January 10 , 2008
"The drop in Arizona's wages was greatest for those who make the least, high-school dropouts and inexperienced workers, according to the report."
PHOENIX --Illegal immigrants cost Arizonans at least $1.4 billion in lower wages in 2005, according to a new report.
Harvard labor economist George Borjas' analysis released this week is the latest academic attempt to quantify the impact of illegal immigrants on the Arizona economy.
Borjas' report did not attempt to examine any possible economic benefits illegal immigrants may make to the state's economy, such as lower prices for goods and services.
His report was prepared for Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas as part of a lawsuit challenging the state's employer-sanctions law, which threatens to pull business licenses from companies that knowingly employ illegal immigrants.
"Dr. Borjas is one of the nation's leading authorities on the effects of illegal immigration on the American economy," Thomas said. "His analysis demonstrates that enforcement of the employer-sanctions law will help to protect and potentially increase wages in Arizona, especially among lower-wage workers."
One of the key assumptions Borjas makes is that immigrants -- both legal and illegal -- expand the labor pool and inevitably lower wages for American-born workers in the same job field.
Borjas said the effects on labor pools ripple across cities and states.
SEE COMPLETE ARTICLE AND CANDIDATE IMMIGRATION SCORECARD at "numbersusa.com".
DING! DING! DING!
I’ve not been trusting what I hear on television of late, but if it is true, Michigan voters are about to nominate the worst of candidates in their presidential primary today.
You have lost much of your manufacturing industry because of Free Trade Agreements that allowed those companies to move out of the country, pushed through Congress by Bill Clinton. The reasons they moved were taxes and the threat of mandated health care insurance; Hillarycare. Remember?
Mitt Romney supports Free Trade and Trade Promotion Authority. He tells you about his successful negotiating experience. In business negotiating = sales and he is selling you a load of crap. If you believe him and the rest of the nation follows suit, all of America will know what Michigan knows.
John McCain is no better. He voted for NAFTA, CAFTA, admitting China to WTO and giving them Most Favored Nation status.
Mike Huckabee not only supports Free Trade, but would support lifting the embargo on trade with Cuba.
All of the above are apologists for illegal immigration and support some form of amnesty for those already here.
Duncan Hunter supports secure borders and wrote the bill to build a fence. He has written or coauthored bills to correct the anchor baby decision in the fourteenth amendment, and legislation to make it possible to purchase health care insurance across state lines.
Democrats will give you more of what you already have; unemployment, depressed wages, higher taxes. Believe it!
Vote DUNCAN HUNTER when you go to the polls today.
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