Crunchy Con

Huck, Obama surging in Iowa

Tuesday January 1, 2008

Categories: Politics (general)
The last-minute Des Moines Register poll shows Obama and Huckabee surging into leads over their closest competitors outside the margin of error. Good. (N.B., I hope y'all can comment on this post. I've noticed that comments are defunct on the...
Advertisement
Comments
Larry Parker
January 1, 2008 5:27 PM

After that ridiculous anti-Romney press conference, Huck (despite your admiration of him) has become the "Saturday Night Live" candidate:

NOT. READY. FOR. PRIME. TIME.

Audra Lindley
January 1, 2008 5:52 PM

Not ready for bedtime either.

Melanie Meredith
January 1, 2008 7:33 PM

I am not big on either candidate from the Democratic party. I am still waiting to see how things go for the Republican party.

Anonymous
January 1, 2008 7:49 PM

Interesting article about Fred Thompson (remember him?):

(don't add www)

campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2RhN2UwMWRlMjRjOThjNDM3NGMxMzFmMzFkNGY2MTA=

Reader John
January 1, 2008 8:29 PM

I'm glad that Melanie can speak reflexively of "either candidate from the Democrat party," and the Edwards is neither. He it way too demagogic to deserve a place in the first tier.
If Romney can't win the general election (see "the Republican Walter Mondale"), I hope it's just my deep-seated pessimism that has me uneasy about Huckabee.

Bugg
January 1, 2008 8:29 PM

Iowa increasinlgy seems like a bad joke. These people picked Pat Robertson; doesn't that mean anything? And some folks have noticed-

Hitchens-

http://slate.com/id/2181008

WSJ-

http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110011061

Dan Ellsworth
January 1, 2008 8:31 PM

Huck's press conference was an encore to his performance with NYT Magazine: I don't really know anything about Mormons, I swear. Aren't they the ones that believe Jesus and the Devil are brothers? Just askin'...
He has an interesting way of making himself look so virtuous while being just as underhanded and nasty as everyone else. It's so disappointing because he seems to be such a likeable guy. I would vote for him in a heartbeat over Romney's checklist persona, if only Huck hadn't revealed his true, bigoted colors to the NYT.
I think I'll be voting for Unity08 or possibly Obama this time around.

Rawlins
January 1, 2008 8:43 PM

Keep Hope (Arkansas) Alive!
(One way or another)

Derek Gilbert
January 1, 2008 9:17 PM

The news of Huckabee's resurgence is welcome, if only because it will send East Coast faux conservatives into a lather.

Eric W
January 1, 2008 9:42 PM
Iowa increasinlgy seems like a bad joke. These people picked Pat Robertson; doesn't that mean anything? And some folks have noticed-

I grew up in Iowa. In fact, I specifically grew up in Ames, Iowa, the epicenter of all the fuss and excitement. I, too, find the importance given to Iowa to be laughable. Ames is a radically liberal town. Not as bad as San Francisco, but it's liberal Democratic heaven, from what I recall and have read. Republican bad. Democratic good. Conservative bad. Liberal good. That's the local mantra.

IIRC, in the fall following my graduation from high school (1970), returning students came to the first day of school to find the U.S. flag taken down and replaced by a "Peace sign" flag.

Here's a Website devoted to Ames from my time period:

wesselphoto.com/ar/index.html

Check out the various sets of photos. :) (No, I'm not in any of them, but I could have been!)

Daniel
January 1, 2008 9:42 PM

A Huckabee nomination would be a gift to Democrats and possibly the death-knell for religious conservatives, who would be blamed for Huckabee and his loss in November. The Republican mainstream would finally have a Sister Souljah moment with the theocons and say publicly what they've been saying privately for two decades: the theocons are a drain on the party.

Susan
January 1, 2008 10:18 PM

Mr. Huckabee has no plans for universal health care so far as I can tell. This means he will not get my vote.

I fear that this requirement applies to all Republicans, all of whom seem to adhere to the "I've Got Mine Too Bad For Everyone Else" school of thought.

Good Christians all.

Eric W
January 1, 2008 10:25 PM

When the majority of high-dollar health-care problems and solutions in this country are self-caused by diet or lack thereof, or lack of exercise, or smoking or drinking, then I don't see why not wanting to make everyone pay to bail out every Tom, Dick and Harry for their unwise lifelong lifestyle decisions makes a person not a "good Christian." Didn't St. Paul say something about reaping what one sows?

Charles Cosimano
January 1, 2008 10:27 PM

Even if Huckleberry should win in Iowa, he hasn't got the money to be competitive anywhere else, so he'll end up like Garry Hart in 1984, barring some unforseen idiocy on the part of the other candidates. Iowa is an entertaining side show unless a candidate totally self-destructs like Mad Howard did four years ago.

Don Altabello
January 1, 2008 10:29 PM

As much as I hate to, I'll have to agree with Daniel. Having a Baptist minister as president will make people squirm, whether or not that is justified.

I hate to say it, but the best conservatives can hope for is that Rudy gets nominated and then beat.

Rod Dreher
January 1, 2008 10:32 PM

The Republican mainstream would finally have a Sister Souljah moment with the theocons and say publicly what they've been saying privately for two decades: the theocons are a drain on the party.>

Translation: those religious nuts embarrass us.

The thing is, the theocons haven't been a drain on the party, but the life of it. Funny how no one mentions hard-core seculars being a drain on the Democratic party; there are a significant number of Christians who would vote Democratic on economic issues, if only the party didn't disdain their traditional moral and social values. Thomas Frank wrote a whole book about these people, "What's the Matter With Kansas?", in which he accused these working-and-middle-class folks of voting against their economic interests for reasons he thought stupid (e.g., abortion, gay marriage). But these are not stupid reasons to people who value the sacredness of unborn life and traditional marriage over economic gain. If the Democrats were to abandon their social liberalism, or at least practice big-tent politics, they'd gain a significant number of votes. Those seculibs, man, are such a drain on the Democratic party.

Don Altabello
January 1, 2008 10:32 PM

Guess I "hate to say" a lot of things--like my grammar on that last post could have used some work:)

Susan
January 1, 2008 10:50 PM

When the majority of high-dollar health-care problems and solutions in this country are self-caused by diet or lack thereof, or lack of exercise, or smoking or drinking

Hi Eric. Please supply data to support the idea that "the majority" of health problems in this country are "self-caused." Don't forget to document how breast cancer is my fault, as is the mental illness of my son. (His fault? My fault? Be sure to be clear on this.) And the prostate cancer of my father in law. And the arthritis my sister suffers from. All our fault, so too bad for us, huh. And Rod's son? This is his fault too? What bad people we all must b e.

Good luck not getting sick. If you do get sick it's undoubtedly your fault, so too bad for you. Why do I discern that you are younger than 40?

Elizabeth
January 1, 2008 10:53 PM

Being in Iowa currently - I can tell you the candidates have NOT thought our decisions on Thursday to be *a sideshow* I get at least 8 phone calls a day, yes most - automated. The candidates have inundated our state, and not because we have no voice.

That being said - I stand with McCain or Paul, I cannot vote for Huckabee any more than I could for Romney. I can not believe he knows foreign policy and we need someone who does and will do better than our current president.

I admit to also having issues with both Romney's and Huckabee's faith issues - and as a Catholic, I would judge with a microscope too, any running Catholic. I am not biased, just cautious...

Susan
January 1, 2008 11:04 PM

The thing that will, I fervently hope, defeat every Republican in sight, is the perception that what Republicans stand for is, "I've Got Mine And If You Don't Too Bad For You." An attitude beautifully illustrated, in all its ugly living color, by Eric's last post.

Eric isn't sick (yet) and is undoubtedly insured. (So far. Until he gets sick or is laid off.) So, it follows that if you get sick or if Rod's son needs medical care, or if my son does, well, it must be our fault. We're not as virtuous as Eric is, undoubtedly, and so we're on our own. And if we don't have the money to pay for medical care and aren't lucky enough to be insured by our employers? Well, this too is undoubtedly our fault too, so too bad for us. And too bad for our kids. So sad too bad.

If the USA is a family, some family. Go to Europe, you folks stranded for life in the flyover. We don't have to live this way. The rest of the industrialized West, EVERY SINGLE COUNTRY, has got the picture. Only American Yahoos stranded on the North American Continent don't get it.

No one who takes the "I've Got Mine" position will get my vote. I've got mine, in fact. We have a huge income, and we're insured to the eyes. No problems here. But pushing everyone else off the edge, well, it just isn't right.

Daniel
January 1, 2008 11:07 PM

"Those seculibs, man, are such a drain on the Democratic party."

Touche. Now, if there was a shred of evidence to support it. I actually don't think there are a lot of votes to be gained by Democrats sacrificing civil rights and individual liberty. And there isn't much evidence that there are large number of social conservatives who would switch allegiances to the Democrats. Social conservatives--especially the pro-life absolutists--are more likely to join a far-right third party than be willing to make compromises likely to feel comfortable with Democrats' support for civil rights and individual liberty.

These are people who voted for Bush twice--even while he was responsible for more executions than any other American leader and a man who was responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands in Iraq--because abortion is all that matters.

Eric W
January 1, 2008 11:33 PM

Susan:

Please read what I wrote. I said the majority of high-dollar health-care problems and solutions.

Eric W
January 1, 2008 11:34 PM

Susan:

Enjoy your emigration to Europe.

Please send us postcards now and then.

rr
January 1, 2008 11:51 PM

quote: "Touche. Now, if there was a shred of evidence to support it. I actually don't think there are a lot of votes to be gained by Democrats sacrificing civil rights and individual liberty. And there isn't much evidence that there are large number of social conservatives who would switch allegiances to the Democrats. Social conservatives--especially the pro-life absolutists--are more likely to join a far-right third party than be willing to make compromises likely to feel comfortable with Democrats' support for civil rights and individual liberty."

Well, Louis Bolce and Gerald De Maio's article "Our secularist democratic party" does document how the disproportionate influence that secularist have on the Democratic party since 1972 has played a large part in shaping the Democrats' ideology, which has in turned alienated many conservative religious voters, who now are basically ex-Democrats or come from the family's of ex-Democrats, as is the case for me.
If you haven't read the article (a bit long, but a good read), it can be found here:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0377/is_2002_Fall/ai_91972733/pg_1

They also may an interesting point about the media doesn't cover the influence of secularists on the Democratic party the same it does the influence of religious voters on the Republican party.

Money quote on that issue: "Media elites are no doubt aware of American religiosity and implicitly understand the political ramifications of characterizing the Democrats as the partisan home of secularism. Perhaps it is for this reason more than any other that we do not hear in election-night analyses and postmortems that Democratic candidates have shorn up their base among the unchurched, atheists, and agnostics, in addition to the ritualistic accounts and warnings about how well Republicans are doing with evangelicals or the Christian Right.

Anyway, actually, I think you are right that Democrats might not gain much by attempting to appeal to religious conservatives. They might well gain in the long run if they abandoned their support for abortion (I would define the Democrats as supporting the opposite of civil rights with things like abortion, but I digress), but in the short run they would lose the secularists they depend on for part of their base, and the religious voters distrust the Democrats too much to come back to them in the short run.
So it seems the Democrats are stuck with the secularists and the Republicans with religious voters. Numerically speaking, religious voters outnumber secularists by a wide margin. Heck, Evangelicals alone are something like one-third of the population. The idea that the Republicans could win by abandoning religious voters is thus absurd. Democrats would stand a better chance by abandoning secularists, especially as they have had such a lousy record of winning presidential elections since 1972. A record of 3-9 generally gets coaches fired in most sports. But they would have to be willing to suffer at the polls in the short run and run off much of their leadership which above all else cares about issues related to the sexual revolution. They might also have to get serious about the interests of working-class and lower-middle class folks for a change instead of just paying lip service.
I don't see any of that happening. The New Deal coalition died a long time ago. Conservative religious folks aren't come back to the party of FDR, and the leadership of the Democratic party today doesn't really care about the concerns that drove said coalition in the first place.

rr

rr
January 2, 2008 12:01 AM

quote: "These are people who voted for Bush twice--even while he was responsible for more executions than any other American leader and a man who was responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands in Iraq--because abortion is all that matters."

P.S. Daniel if you really believed that abortion was a brutal form of murder, wouldn't it be at the top of your list too? Deaths in Iraq pall in comparison to the number of abortions in this country. You may not agree with how conservative religious people vote, but it makes more sense if approach this the way that those who believe abortion is murder do.

rr

M_David
January 2, 2008 12:17 AM

Those seculibs, man, are such a drain on the Democratic party.

I get your point, Rod, but I must disagree.

Until the boomers die out, it's going to be seculib heaven in America, and the theocons are a political loser. Not to mention how terrible a political friend theocons are. For example, Bush is the most theocon president in memory, losing a lot of political capital to be so, and yet theocons still aren't happy.

Born '46-'64, boomers will vote until 2020-2040. While they did convert to conservative on fiscal issues once they made their own piles (natch!), they will certainly never repent and convert to theocon in their old age...40 million abortions is not enough legacy for them, they gotta have more.

Besides, when Social Security/Medicare go bust and boomers vote for taxes to retire in style, get ready for fiscal issues to dominate. It's going to be an age/class/money political game more than a culture war. Theocons will be isolated until the boomers start to die off.

Think about it the political war brewing. The old will be wealthy, white, politically active, and very powerful. They will not hesitate to screw their kids (and the economy) via taxes. Their kids will be angry, more racially diverse, much poorer, and much more concerned with voting their pocketbook as the boomers clean them out. Social issues will have to take a back seat.

But around 2040, the boomers mostly dead, the seculibs will have pretty much shrunk to a feeble minority. America will be almost half minority, and the political parties will dump the seculibs like a hot stone. But until then, it's the seculib's time to shine!

Will Harrington
January 2, 2008 7:43 AM

Hey, Susan. I'm one of those people without health insurance, and a diabetic to boot. You'd think i'b be all for universal health care, wouldn't you? WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!! Our VA system sucks. THe VA in Marion IL where my folks used to go before they got out and started going to the privately owned hospitals in the area hired doctors who were under investigation elsewhere at the time. It turns out they don't do much in the way of background checks and people have died through the VA's sheer incompetence. If this is what the government can provide, I'll go with what I can afford through my own income and private charity any day. Show me first that Universal health care is something more than just a slow, beaureaucratic way to die. I don't want a Canadian style health care system. Maybe something like Britain where there is both public and private. Thing is, it seems everyone who can, goes with the private system. Why. How do you propose that universal health care becomes anything more than a rationing of health care for those who are, in some way, worthy?

Ben Casey
January 2, 2008 8:46 AM

Good point, Will.

Susan: If you think it's difficult to sue a doctor or hospital for malpractice these days with private health insurance, or to sue a health insurance company or HMO for coverage or a procedure they don't want to give you, wait until the government provides all the doctors and is "responsible" for all the health care a person does or does not receive or is allowed or not allowed to receive. You ... can ... kiss ... your ... ability ... to ... get ... justice ... good-bye.

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 9:35 AM

I've posted at length about this elsewhere, so I'll try to be brief with a sweeping generalization: the primary ill in the delivery of health care in the US is that it is a for-profit business. The situation is very complex, for sure, but the drive to enhance the bottom line can be directly traced to people dying. Believe it or not, a government bureaucracy will often result in the most equality in the distribution of services... which, I must hasten to add, is not really saying much in favor of it.

Finding a solution to a problem should not get bogged down in the failed attempts to find that solution in the past. Instead of denying subsequent attempts, insist that they be based on the lessons learned from the past instead of constantly repeating them, as we have seen too many times. Reform has a bad odor because true reform means finding a successful solution, and in health care success is directly proportional to a reduction in profits for private investors.

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 9:40 AM

M_David, please look at the historical growth of the national debt. The kids have been screwed several times over already.

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 9:56 AM

M_David, please look at the historical growth of the national debt. The kids have already been screwed a few times over; no need to wait for the boomers.

JLF
January 2, 2008 10:34 AM

M_David: You need to take more than a two-dimensional view of Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid/etc.

I'm assuming you are forty-two or younger and not part of that despised generation, but you will, nevertheless, benefit from those programs. They are almost universally credited with raising the elderly as a group from poverty and dependence upon family for support during their last years. No Social Security/Medicare and Grandpa will be moving in with you and the kids will have to share a bedroom and bath. His illnesses and hospitalizations will be your responsibility and his health insurance premiums - assuming you can afford health insurance premiums for someone over sixty-five - will be astronomical. (Remember: today's premiums are based upon the expectation of Medicare/Medicaid being the primary carrier.) And even if he is healthy today, remember the odds are that his expenses will double or triple during his last years.

Or, I suppose, you can kick the old geezer to the curb. After all, what good is he now that the expense of upkeep exceeds the expectation of return?

Susan
January 2, 2008 10:45 AM

Reform has a bad odor because true reform means finding a successful solution, and in health care success is directly proportional to a reduction in profits for private investors.

Right on, Franklin, I am convinced that this is the heart of the problem. Those private parties (and insurance companies) will fight tooth and nail to keep making those profits, at our expense.

Eric W
January 2, 2008 10:48 AM

Re: my earlier comments about lifestyle being responsible for high-dollar health care costs:

wcbstv.com/business/corporations.combat.obesity.2.621317.html

Companies Rewarding Workers' Healthy Habits
Workers Get Cash For Eating Better, Having Kids Eat Healthy
By Alexis Christoforous

NEW YORK (CBS) ― How's this for incentive to stick to your new year's resolutions: cold hard cash. Many companies are offering a little extra in your paycheck to help you shed the pounds.

Not only does Stefanie Chiras' company pay her to develop computer memory sub-systems, but a little extra to eat right.

"Having work sponsor it makes you kind of feel like someone is buying into It," said Chiras. "And then certainly the cash at the end of the day is an incentive."

Chiras works for IBM. She gets an additional $150 in her paycheck for tracking her eating habits online and losing weight.

"When I reach for that next unhealthy thing, I think, oh, but I have to log it in to the tool."

IBM launched its voluntary wellness incentive program four years ago – handing each employee up to $300 a year for completing healthy eating, exercise and preventative care programs.

Health care bills for corporate America are skyrocketing. Each year, IBM spends about $2 billion globally, and obese workers are driving up the cost.

Researchers say offering cash incentives to employees is actually a low cost way to motivate them to cut out the fat and get on the treadmill.

Eric Finkelstein, author 'The Fattening of America' said "It is essentially costless for the firm. If nobody loses any weight, then they don't spend any money."

So many IBM employees have lost weight, stopped smoking or otherwise improved their health that the company has paid out $130 million but it's saving about three times as much.

This year, IBM also plans to give workers money if their children develop healthier eating habits.

Dr. Paul Grundy, the Director of Strategic Initiatives at IBM told CBS "frankly speaking we don't know why everybody wouldn't do this because it really does make a great deal of sense."

Chiras credits the company policy with getting her back into shape after having a baby a year and a half ago. She says she'll spend some of her extra cash to take her daughter on her first trip to the zoo.

As part of it's wellness program, most IBM medical options cover routine preventive services at 100% if it's done 'in-network'.

Susan
January 2, 2008 10:50 AM

How do you propose that universal health care becomes anything more than a rationing of health care for those who are, in some way, worthy?

Will, we ration health care in this country. (Every system rations health care, by necessity.) Our rationing system is based on ability to pay, so that the wealthy 92 year old has (what turns out to be fatal) $250,000 open heart surgery (this is an actual case) while impoverished children go without routine vaccinations and well-baby visits.

Tell me how this rationing system makes sense.

Susan
January 2, 2008 11:30 AM

Eric, just to take one example of many, catastrophic birth defects can cause very "high dollar" health care expenses. As can hereditary neurological conditions like Huntington's. As can various cancers, not all of which can be tied to behavioral factors - indeed, most of them cannot. As can Type I diabetes, another inherited condition which usually strikes small children, and which generates huge expenses over a lifetime.

There is no question that better living habits make for better health in general. But it's just plain wrong to contend that if everybody stopped smoking, drinking and eating too much, and got more exercise, that no one would incur catastrophic medical expenses. Or to contend that anytime anyone gets sick and incurs very high-dollar expenses, well, it's probably their fault anyway, and Eric shouldn't have to help pay for it. That kind of reasoning will get you only until you or someone you love becomes seriously and expensively ill.

Very Republican of you, though, so far as I can tell.

M_David
January 2, 2008 11:33 AM

Frankin, M_David, please look at the historical growth of the national debt. The kids have been screwed several times over already.

First, the specific national debt is no big deal - it's ranged between 40-100% of GDP for most of our history, and it's not even too high now. Beside, foreigners own a lot of it anyway, poor guys ;-).

Second, the national debt itself has merely been passed on and on, so nobody has had to pay the piper yet. The boomers have reaped the benefits of debt, not paid a single piper. And trust me, they won't.

Third, Medicare and Social Security ARE massive problems due to lack of kids to pay the piper. This might be what you are talking about.


The Ponzi schemes of Medicare/SS were created by earlier generations boasting about how moral they were. And they work great as long as you have more victims ready at hand. That is, the "screw your kids and grandkids" game of Medicare and SS work with growing young populations to screw over. But sadly all good things must come to an end, and the boomers did it in style by taking it all to a new level - they created a divorce culture and then even refused to have kids! Clever. Who would have thunk it?

So it's over. I can't wait for all the delicious political fun. Start with forty steady years of declining social capital, calcuate in the Bowling Alone effect, note all the broken families and the 70% working mothers today (versus 30% back in '70s) that are now needed to prop up our economy at the expense of future generations. Note the schools, the sucide rates, the school shootings. Then toss in a dash of peak oil, note the aging, wealthy, unrepentant yet politically powerful boomer class...and Woo Hoo! It's party time. Grab a beer and enjoy the show.

Eric W
January 2, 2008 11:39 AM

Susan: Again you mistreat and exaggerate my comments and create a straw man which you then set alight. I never said or contended that healthier and more responsible living would end all problems, nor did I say that all high-dollar health care costs were due to lifestyle choices. Please read what's written before you respond, and please respond to what a person writes, not to what you misrepresent them to have written. Sheesh!

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 11:59 AM

M_David, my perspective is if anything more jaundiced than yours: I was a pension actuary for 14 years. During the late 70s we were already discussing the expected crash of SS. Though I've moved on from that industry, the discussion has remained the same, with the only difference being when it would crash (note: not if).

SS (and later Medicare) are "ponzi schemes" because that was the only way they could work. When Congress finally decided that having a reserve for future liabilites was a good idea, it didn't take them long to use it to "balance" the federal budget. There's a deception worthy of our scorn.

The way I see it, the demographics are more like handing the elders the whip and chair; the national debt is a loaded gun, safety off, that we've begged our economic competitors to please hold in their hands, with extra gratitude when they aim it at our heart. :-(

aaron
January 2, 2008 12:41 PM

so it's over. I can't wait for all the delicious political fun. Start with forty steady years of declining social capital, calcuate in the Bowling Alone effect, note all the broken families and the 70% working mothers today (versus 30% back in '70s) that are now needed to prop up our economy at the expense of future generations. Note the schools, the sucide rates, the school shootings. Then toss in a dash of peak oil, note the aging, wealthy, unrepentant yet politically powerful boomer class...and Woo Hoo! It's party time. Grab a beer and enjoy the show.

Which is why I need to hurry on getting a goo dchunk of land and building that off-grid house.

Charles Cosimano
January 2, 2008 1:39 PM

The way I see it, the demographics are more like handing the elders the whip and chair; the national debt is a loaded gun, safety off, that we've begged our economic competitors to please hold in their hands, with extra gratitude when they aim it at our heart. :-(

A useless weapon because they can never use it without destroying their own economies.

Of course there is an historic precedent to solving our economic problem. In the olded days empires levied tribute, meaning they made other states pay them not to be conquered. Now, how much will all the oil-producing states be willing to pay not to be nuked off the face of the earth? I think we can get maybe 98% of their GNPs.

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 1:45 PM

Charles,

Like any analogy, mine admittedly breaks down... but I have to ask you, how many times in history did a group of humans refrain from doing something because they would be hurting themselves in the process?

It's like the statistics of fatal automobile accidents: one may have a very small chance of being in one, but it only takes one accident to make one 100% dead. :-(

sigaliris
January 2, 2008 1:51 PM

Our VA system sucks.

Will, from what I've heard, you're right. However, one must always ask the question, "Compared to what?" Yes, the VA system needs a lot of improvement. Compared to rotting away without assistance of any kind, however, it doesn't look so bad. I have a friend who is old, poor, and very sick--in Texas--and he'd be dead by now if not for the assistance he has received through the VA. The VA is his lifeline. He doesn't have the option to "go with what [he] can afford through [his] own income and private charity." He can't afford any of the care he needs, and private charities aren't exactly tripping over themselves to front up hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep an old black man from dying in poverty. That happens every day.

And they work great as long as you have more victims ready at hand. That's M_David's interesting take on Medicare and Social Security. I don't see it quite that way. I would guess that Mr. Sig and I probably pay more taxes than most of y'all here. We're ten years behind the curve in terms of earning power, due to spending our youth living at poverty level in a possibly misguided attempt to spread the good news of Jesus. And we're behind some of our age cohort because my career, such as it is, came second to taking care of family. Nevertheless, due to Mr. Sig's hard work and talent, we pay as much in taxes now as we used to earn to provide for our whole family. Those taxes are currently paying for people like my friend in Texas. They're paying for medical care for people of my parents' age who would otherwise have no health care. They're paying for my friend in PA, who is permanently disabled after a lifetime of hard work, and my friend in Hawaii with a genetic autoimmune disease. I don't resent that, and I don't see myself as a victim. If, God forbid, one of M_David's numerous offspring ends up with problems he can't afford to pay for, I won't resent my taxes being used to help him.

Yes, I am disturbed by inequity and inefficiency in social programs. But I don't resent the fact that they exist. I embrace the opportunity to help. I don't see it as "victimization" when a society agrees to cooperate in order to care for its less able members. I would not want to live in a society that rejected that imperative.

Susan
January 2, 2008 2:18 PM

OK, Eric, this is your exact quote:

When the majority of high-dollar health-care problems and solutions in this country are self-caused by diet or lack thereof, or lack of exercise, or smoking or drinking, then I don't see why not wanting to make everyone pay to bail out every Tom, Dick and Harry for their unwise lifelong lifestyle decisions makes a person not a "good Christian." Didn't St. Paul say something about reaping what one sows?

1. Is this true, right off the bat? Are the majority of high-dollar health-care problems "self-caused"? Your authority for that statement? I listed a number of "high-dollar" health-care problems which are certainly NOT "self-caused," and I could list many more. Where did you get this "majority" number?

2. Not even everyone who develops, say, heart disease does so as a result of unwise lifestyle decisions. There are powerful hereditary factors at work as well. Remember Jim Fixx, the big deal runner, who dropped dead of heart disease in his 40's? So, how do you propose to tell who gets, say, heart disease from "unwise" decisions and who gets it from other factors?

3. You seem to be proposing that we not "bail out" those who are to blame for their own situation. But, wouldn't you have to be able to tell which people these were? You can't just sort by disease, as demonstrated in #2 above. How would you make this distinction?

4. Your statement implies, however, that since (according to you) the "majority" of "high-dollar" health care problems arise from personal fault of some kind, that we should just not have social programs for health care AT ALL. That way we're punishing those bad unwise people for sure. If you don't mean this, please refer back to #3.

All these possible positions are quite easy to take so long as you personally have a lot of money and/or you and everyone you love is well. Your position is hard on people who either have little money and/or get sick.

How Republican of you.

Susan
January 2, 2008 2:21 PM

Yes, I am disturbed by inequity and inefficiency in social programs. But I don't resent the fact that they exist. I embrace the opportunity to help. I don't see it as "victimization" when a society agrees to cooperate in order to care for its less able members. I would not want to live in a society that rejected that imperative.

Sig is on the right track, as usual.

Eric W
January 2, 2008 2:23 PM

How gracious of you.

M_David
January 2, 2008 3:39 PM

Franklin, The way I see it, the demographics are more like handing the elders the whip and chair; the national debt is a loaded gun, safety off

I agree.

However, don't forget it it the elders who hold the whip and the chair. They will be calling ths shots. Let's go over it by the numbers:

1) Boomers have the swing vote; no pol will dare cross the AARP if they know what's good for them.

2) They have the money and power. The median net worth of people 55-64 is nearly up to $250,000, while at the same time it has dropped to about $50,000 for those in their late 30s. Who's gonna get listened to?

3) The "me" generation will have zero shame in screwing the youth. Just read the above posts.


Regarding point #2, remember the gap between the rich and poor is more generation gap than class conflict. The rich are getting richer, and overwhelmingly they are older people. Nearly all added wealth from the last 20 years (since 1989) went to people 55+ (Federal Reserve data).

Wealth has doubled since 1989 in households headed by older Americans. The young? Not so much; they are too busy mopping up the family breakdown they inherited. So Social Security and Medicare are increasingly just a transfer of money from poorish young people to wealthy old people, and because the SS/Med taxes hit poorer people hardest, it's especially cruel.

But this is old news. I must confess, though, it is very interesting to watch all the moral justifications for screwing the young unfolding among boomers. Love it! Unfolding as predicted.

Franklin Evans
January 2, 2008 4:04 PM

Just one thing to add, M_David: I was born in 1956. ;-D

... wait, two things: the AARP has been working very hard for several years to commercialize and marginalize itself. Your point about their political clout is well taken, but the jury is still out on whether it will continue.

M_David
January 2, 2008 4:27 PM

Franklin, I was born in 1956

Serious political analysis always separates personal bias from the reality on the ground. I never doubted your bona fides here :-).

But I still put my money on the AARP.

And speaking of political analysis that hurts, just be happy you aren't a theocon. I'm one of them, and our future is pretty grim for the next 10-20 years. Enjoy it!

strech
January 2, 2008 5:05 PM

The "Our secularist democratic party" has some data, but I don't think it fully supports the point they're trying to make. It's persuasive in making the point that there's a "secularist" group on the left which is as politically fringe as the amorphous "religious fundamentalists"; it fails to argue, though, that they have anything like comparable power and influence in their parties, something it just vaguely assumes.

The "fundamentalist" faction has always had more power in their party than the "secularist" faction in the democratic party - there's a telling bit at the end as to why:
"In a national poll conducted in March 2002 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, more than half of the respondents expressed unfavorable feelings toward "nonbelievers," almost twice the number that felt unfavorably toward the "Christian conservative movement."" The same thing shows up in polls all the time - deep distrust of the non-religious, which is how they essentially define secularist. The article tries a bit to spin this as showing that the influence is hidden to avoid political problems; I think it primarily shows that the same kind of influence isn't there.

Admittedly, as is showing up in this election, the religious right's influence has always been stronger in rhetoric (and pandering) than in practice, but given the vast gap in pandering that's not saying much. Republicans *fight* for the endorsements of Falwell and Robertson; the equivalent "secularist" doesn't even exist, as best as I can tell; and if one did, the Democrats would run away.

Derek Gilbert
January 2, 2008 6:42 PM
Mr. Huckabee has no plans for universal health care so far as I can tell. This means he will not get my vote.

I fear that this requirement applies to all Republicans, all of whom seem to adhere to the "I've Got Mine Too Bad For Everyone Else" school of thought.

Good Christians all.

Susan: Where in the Bible does Christ preach that His followers should take over government to fulfill a divine command to provide universal health care? All the translations I'm aware of suggest that such love and charity is expected of believers, not the government.

DeeAnn
January 2, 2008 6:57 PM

For those of you leaning towards Huckabee, you gotta read the following letter from a conservative Republican in Arkansas. Doesn't seem like the governor has much support in his home state:

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/33391ddb-ed1f-4bc3-9d19-cdca6181d5d4

JLF
January 2, 2008 7:13 PM

Derek asks: "Where in the Bible does Christ preach that His followers should take over government to fulfill a divine command to provide universal health care?"

Answer: In the same chapters where he discusses HAVING THE GOVERNMENT outlaw abortion, prohibiting same sex marriage, and so forth.

Jillian
January 2, 2008 8:19 PM

And speaking of political analysis that hurts, just be happy you aren't a theocon. I'm one of them, and our future is pretty grim for the next 10-20 years. Enjoy it!

Well, the areligious or nonchurched/nonaffiliated and nonsectarian proportion of the population increasing 10% in 10 years looks like a trend rather than a blip.

Democrats would stand a better chance by abandoning secularists, especially as they have had such a lousy record of winning presidential elections since 1972. A record of 3-9 generally gets coaches fired in most sports.

From 1932-1964, Republicans were 2-6 and that 2 were accounted for by the fairly moderate Ike. Across the ~75-77 year historical cycle in American politics that splits roughly into halves dominated by liberals and conservatives respectively, a split of 10 vs 11 is hardly bad. (And who knows, Hillary will probably break down moderate Republican resistance should she get elected, making a second term easy for her to win. :-) )

But they would have to be willing to suffer at the polls in the short run and run off much of their leadership which above all else cares about issues related to the sexual revolution.

No, it's about incremental breakdown of the crumbling system of rigid social class/castes/categories. As a country we broke down the corresponding political rights/privileges divisions from 1865 to 1940 or so. (Mostly.) 1941-2020ish is about disputing and breaking down the divisions of social rights/privileges.

2020ish- 2100ish is presumably about corresponding development in economic rights/privileges.

Constitutionally, they're successive realizations of the promises/guarantees of Section 1 of the 14th Amendment.

They might also have to get serious about the interests of working-class and lower-middle class folks for a change instead of just paying lip service.

Well, if those voters truly prioritized economic rights, they'd not have voted so many Republicans in on the basis of social issues and killing more Commies and Arabs.

Every vote for Republicans based on abortion or obsessively hating "terrorists"/Latinos/whoever has been and is a vote permitting continued economic predation on the lower classes' wealth. They know it. They do it anyway.

I don't see any of that happening. The New Deal coalition died a long time ago. Conservative religious folks aren't come back to the party of FDR, and the leadership of the Democratic party today doesn't really care about the concerns that drove said coalition in the first place.

In 1972 the Democratic Party changed roles and became the party that sides with or is ambivalent toward Modernity. During the Seventies the Republican Party became the anti-Modernity coalition.

There's a lot of nostagic and vain hope among the slowly dying out conservative Democrats that there's a going back to the safely pre-Modern cocoon of around 1960 or even 1964. It's not going to happen, but they account for that funny shrinking (now down to 15-17%, but in the Nineties around 30%) proportion of selfidentifying Democrats that has reliably voted Republican in national elections.

The American media has found American conservative religious movements so much more interesting than the secularists because they seemed so out of place. And from the start, a source of apparent social and intellectual regression in a country that was so convinced of itself being a member of the First World set in the 1950s and 1960s. In roughly 1968, despite all the supposed love of all things white and western European by American conservatives, western Europe and the US went different ways.

Western Europe began its road forward to post-Christianity then, sticking with the core European value of rigorous thought, e.g. focus on science as collective endeavor and value, and liberal economic, social and political integration as the necessary solution to its large scale problems. With that has come abandonment of exclusive theism and rigid religionisms. That is now slowly expanding southward and eastward, just as the EU itself, and looks to spread beyond it. It has certainly arrived on the American coasts and Canada, as well.

In the Seventies and Eighties the US, in contrast, had a slow reactionary eruption of pre-Enlightenment European religious thinking ('conservative Christianity') with its anti-scientific occultisms and Agrarian Age, at root pre-Christian pagan, values/mores/beliefs. For all the fervent American conservatives' talk of keeping the US a model Western European society, they have actually revealed and expanded a popular cultural disconnection. The Iraq thang has now likewise revealed a progressive disconnecting of American and European elites- Colonial Era commonalities are breaking down, Cold War and older debts are mostly paid off.

M_David
January 2, 2008 9:28 PM

Well, the areligious or nonchurched/nonaffiliated and nonsectarian proportion of the population increasing 10% in 10 years looks like a trend rather than a blip

Trends only occur if they have demographic longevity. That's why areligious are merely a blip, they don't seem able to have kids at replacement for whatever reason.

Check the numbers; the secularists are merely a historical curiosity, soon extinct and forgotten.

sigaliris
January 2, 2008 10:05 PM

The idea that "religionists" (I'm using this word for lack of a better way to describe them) will always outnumber "secularists" because they have more children per capita seems to me to rely on a curiously Lamarckian assumption. Is it not the case that the majority of current "secularists" were raised by more religious parents? It's true that there are some families that have been "secularist" for a couple of generations, but they are far outnumbered by people who were raised to believe, but stopped doing so when they reached adulthood. So it may even turn out that "religionists" who bear lots of children are actually breeding for the benefit of the other side. Not to mention that there are statistics suggesting that the more boys in a family, the more likely some of the younger ones are to be gay. So religious conservatives, by having lots of children, are helping to swell the gay population as well as the secularist ranks.

rr
January 2, 2008 10:08 PM

quote: "In 1972 the Democratic Party changed roles and became the party that sides with or is ambivalent toward Modernity. During the Seventies the Republican Party became the anti-Modernity coalition."

How do you define "Modernity"? You use this term quite loosely. My guess is that we may well have different views of what "modernity" is in the first place since a lot of what you say doesn't seem to follow to me. I should also state that I don't believe in historical progress, which I see as a tired old nineteenth-century Hegelian concept that the events of the twentieth century (the World Wars, the Holocaust, the atomic bomb, Communism, etc.) showed to be ridiculously naive. The notion of historical progress, however, appears to be an idea you take for granted as true.

rr

rr
January 2, 2008 10:19 PM

quote: "So it may even turn out that "religionists" who bear lots of children are actually breeding for the benefit of the other side."

Yes, this is indeed the case. There are some who were raised atheist or non-religious who become religious latter on in life, but probably more leave their religious upbringings for a secular life than vice-versa.
But, assuming religious people continue to have more children than secularists, what happens to the next generation? Those who remain religious continue to have more children than their secular counterparts, including those secularists who were raised religious.
Assuming religious people always have more children than secularists, it's hard to see where all this ends. In the case of secular Europe, however, it seems pretty clear that if secularists get the upper hand in society that said society stops having replacement level birth-rates.

rr

Larry Parker
January 2, 2008 11:31 PM

Rod:

You repeated something in this thread that I found -- interesting? incomprehensible due to my own biases? -- repeated from your discussion of the infamous TOY column:

That your bottom line in journalism is the abortion issue. And that your contract says not even Kevan Ann Willey can make you advocate the pro-choice cause in print.

Not because respect for life at all stages is not a remarkable thing -- it is. But rather, because I don't think you have to be a "seculib" to wonder at the priorities of making all kinds of moral compromises on behalf of adults and children but holding an ironclad line at a being smaller than the angels dancing on the head of a pin.

As a small example, it's not just Democrats who support ESCR ...

Jillian
January 3, 2008 3:22 AM

Trends only occur if they have demographic longevity. That's why areligious are merely a blip, they don't seem able to have kids at replacement for whatever reason.

Check the numbers; the secularists are merely a historical curiosity, soon extinct and forgotten.

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. Yes, the 'areligious' are not selfreplacing fully. Yes, the 'religious' have 2.3+ children per pair of parents.

But: the children of the 'religious' are not 100% concordant with their parents- I personally doubt it's 50% true retention at this point. (There's a widely noted passive intermediate stage that is hard to evaluate.) Furthermore, the children of the 'areligious' have a much lower rate of going over to the 'religious' side. In "intermarriages" I don't see a lot of conversion of spouses or the children splitting 50/50 either- I don't have a strong count, but I have yet to see the 'religious' parent win over the children permanently.

Let me ask you why the Southern Baptist Convention is a numbers dispute now, with the internal critics believing that their numbers show de facto real decline in the past year or two. That's hardly a denomination that can be accused of a low birthrate or shrinkage in the number of churches it has, or softness of leadership. It, or something like it, ought to be the paradigm and core of the ReConversionista you envision. Why is it faltering? Or do you think the future lies in, say, a massive Pentecostal conversion?

M_David
January 3, 2008 10:47 AM

Jillian,

I don't know where you are getting your numbers.

You say, the 'religious' have 2.3+ children per pair of parents? Even if true, who cares? That's barely above replacement, those "religious" people are toast when going head-to-head with cultures who really breed. And BTW, we have correlations upwards of 0.8 or greater on children following parents based on religious belief, and it's even greater versus the secular. But who cares? If somebody goes secular, they die out, so it doesn't matter even if one does.

Right now, in Africa, there are places with 5 or 6 kids average, showing no sign of slowing down. Those cultures are absolutely the opposite of areligious. Go check out the UN numbers.

There are even people in the USA (all religious, natch) with very high birth rates. No secular people, though.

Everywhere in the world, without exception, there doesn't exist a single areligious peoples who are not vanishing. To all but the most bias and obtuse, it's obvious. Areligious = extinction.

We don't know much, but we do know this: areligious culture is NOT the future "trend." It's merely a blip and the past.

DavidTC
January 3, 2008 12:24 PM

How do you propose that universal health care becomes anything more than a rationing of health care for those who are, in some way, worthy?

Okay, I'm going to explain free market capitalism one more time to Republicans, who have somehow failed to grasp it how it works:

Rationing is a result of shortage. If there are X widgets available, and X*2 people who want a widget, there will be rationing. This rationing, unless on something that is physically unobtainable, such as oil was in 1973, will auto-correct itself, as more widgets are manufactured and more businesses go into the widget business.

Medical prices have gone up in an attempt to 'correct' the shortage in the medical industry, but price increases don't fix shortages, they 'manage' them until the shortage can be corrected. But we're not getting the correction, which admittedly would take time to train new doctors and build new facilities. But it's been almost two decades now.

Instead, we're getting an anti-correction, where we already don't have enough but we're constantly having less. Hospitals are still closing, doctors are getting more and more overloaded, wait times are increasing even with less patients because there's even less people providing service. Our level of care is receding!


Now, I will pull out my Big Book of Capitalism and notice that, if the free market is failing, that something is interfering with it.

And, suddenly, I immediately notice a very very interesting fact about the medical industry that no other industry has: They have a middleman that makes more when less services are provided. Hmmmm. Apparently, not only is that having the obvious effect of providing less services than people want, it's actually gotten to the point where it's damaged the medical industry itself.

As long as the insurance industry is between people and health care, there will not be enough health care. Either via government rationing or cost rationing.


Once we get rid of the insurance industry, the market will operate as normal. Of course, while that removes shortages, that doesn't change the fact that medical care is still too expensive for normal people. Other countries have solved this by having the government operate the medical industry, or having the government pay for the medical care in a privately operated industry.

And if you go those routes, you end up with either a quasi-free market or a planned market, which, of course, can result in shortages if there is poor planning. But it seems better than a 'free market' with a middleman who's ultimate goal is that no one ever, under any circumstances, get medical care, or a free market that no one can actually afford to participate in.

Franklin Evans
January 3, 2008 12:40 PM

Jillian and M_David, your head-butting over statistics and trends is very interesting. If either of you need ibuprofen, I'm there. ;-)

I submit to both of you, though, that there is one demographic measurement that goes unremarked and generally unmeasured in ways that would facilitate analysis at the level at which you are engaged: the turnout of eligible voters for an election.

While interesting, the national totals (and averages) are not relevant. Because of the artificial impositions by the electoral college, each state's turnout should be critically examined. The numbers point to a very interesting question: if just 10% of those who didn't turn out did turn out, how would the historical outcomes have changed?

In some states, not likely at all. In other states, a great deal.

The details are fascinating. I have an old blog that discusses it in some detail using the 2000 election numbers at http://madfedor.blogspot.com/2006/06/none-of-above.html

Franklin Evans
January 3, 2008 12:50 PM

For my personal analysis supporting my contention that the electoral college is beyond ridiculous, the numbers don't lie: http://madfedor.blogspot.com/2006/06/why-electoral-college-is-ridiculous.html

;-D

Post a Comment

By submitting these comments, I agree to the beliefnet.com terms of service, rules of conduct and privacy policy (the "agreements"). I understand and agree that any content I post is licensed to beliefnet.com and may be used by beliefnet.com in accordance with the agreements.



Please type the text you see in the box below to verify your post and help us prevent spam. You have a limited time to type - you may wish to compose your comment in a separate document and paste it here upon completion.

Type the characters you see in the picture above.

Advertisement

Search This Blog

About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

feed icon Subscribe

RSS Feed

Receive updates from Crunchy Con

Advertisement

Advertisement


About Beliefnet

Our mission is to help people like you find, and walk, a spiritual path that will bring comfort, hope, clarity, strength, and happiness. More about Beliefnet.

Legal

Copyright © Beliefnet, Inc. and/or its licensors. All rights reserved. Use of this site is subject to Terms of Service and to our Privacy Policy. Constructed by Beliefnet.

Advertisement

Report as Inappropriate

You are reporting this content because it violates the Terms of Service.

All reported content is logged for investigation.