Crunchy Con

I was wrong, bigtime

Tuesday January 8, 2008

Categories: Democrats

1. I thought Hillary's near-tears meant she was finished. The Muskie effect. In fact, it probably helped her a lot, because it made her seem human.

2. I thought the Clintons' tearing into Obama was going to hurt her. Looks like not (though remember, there aren't many African-Americans in New Hampshire).

Looks like this Democratic race is a lot more interesting now.

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Comments
Larry Parker
January 9, 2008 2:03 PM

Near-human, anyway ...

Sheilagh
January 9, 2008 2:56 PM

Well if it was shock jocks from Boston, I could see it. But what most of this 'certain category' of men don't realize is that their behavior is advocating more strongly FOR Hillary than she ever could.

Ugly men showing their ugliness. Makes me want to vote AGAINST them and FOR what they are trying to tear down.

Goodguyex. I might've felt a little empathy. But I didn't vote for her.

Wonder if some of this total emphasis on the exterior is what's behind the skyrocketing suicide rates among teenage girls?

Seems Hillary has every right to be in this presidential race. And most sane people don't think she needs to be Barbie-BEAUTIFUL to do so.

There are always people who take pot shots. Hillary is an easy target. But it doesn't win anyone who's an independent over to the Republican cause to see them take aim at the irrelevant.

Will
January 9, 2008 3:25 PM

From a purely partisan horserace perspective, the Republican best case general election scenario is McCain vs. Hillary.

OK, Simon, JLF asked "why are Republicans so adamant that Hillary not be the Democratic candidate?" If the handicappers think, as you suggest, McCain v Clinton gives the GOP the best odds of victory, why does JLF even ask the question? Or is JLF plain wrong, and Republicans really want a McCain v Clinton race?

Which issues do Clinton and McCain really differ on? I don't see them. They both look like pro-business hawks to me. We bought Iraq in 2003 ala the Pottery Barn, and we're not getting out this century, even if Denis Kucinich gets elected.

I really don't care what the candidates say about health care - the markets and the slumping economy will dictate the outcome on that, and that is more of the same, status quo. Abortion is a hot button issue, but even if Roe v Wade gets overturned, a Big IF, it's still a states' rights football.

Jillian
January 9, 2008 6:27 PM

her negatives are so high and so intractable that in the weakest GOP nominee starts with 45% of the vote and can build from there.

I'd check the 2000 Senate election in New York for how "intractable" those are and why. Obama and Edwards are now painfully discovering the the strength of blowback to going highhanded and negative on her.

You seem blissfully unaware that the national Republican support ceiling on major policy issues is about 47% and declining. If I were you I'd pray that there's no Al Qaeda attack in a major Western country or Israel that kills 20-30 or more people between now and late October, because if it does, the national Republican support ceiling on Election Day will be around 40%. (Lower if it happens in the US.)

From a purely partisan horserace perspective, the Republican best case general election scenario is McCain vs. Hillary. With Michael Bloomberg jumping in during the summer and siphoning off 5% of the Dem vote.

It's been polled out. IIRC Bloomberg takes about 5-8% soft votes away, most or all from the Republican candidate.

mik_infidelos
January 10, 2008 5:09 AM

you don't realize that most politicians get to where they are by thinking and talking on their feet.

You got to leave your basement once in a while.
Go for a walk, talk to somebody human.
Perhaps buy a TV.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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