The depth of Huck's triumph
Look at this entrance poll chart from CNN. No, really, look at it, especially if you are tempted to rack Huck's victory up to a "Christianist" surge. He won just about every Republican demographic -- especially, please note, the middle-income...
60% of the voters identified themselves as Evangelicals/Born Agains. Non-Evangelicals placed Huckabee fourth. He won all those categories because Evangelicals dominate the caucuses.
But Evangelicals aren't going to dominate in New Hampshire or Florida or Michigan or Nevada. When the deck isn't stacked, it will be intersting to see how far his so-called populist appeal will take him.
Most interesting was the number Huck had for women (as I just emailed you), if I'm reading the chart right.
As far as the 'deck being stacked', I realize Iowa has a lot of religious conservatives, but we're active in the GOP in other states as well...
Rod, I think you're sort of stealing a base here by calling Romney voters "secular." I mean, isn't he the guy who just made a big show about his religiosity last month? Non-Evangelical/non-Born Again does not necessarily equal "secular".
"Secular" is the new slur from social conservative elites. Basically, 75% of Americans are secularists according this new meme.
No wonder social conservative are the most despised voting bloc in America, given the way their elites talk.
"Secular" is the new slur from social conservative elites.
Oh please, don't be ridiculous. Romney led among people who said religion isn't that important to them. I didn't mean it as a slur word; I meant it as a descriptive word. You really do need to unwind, Daniel.
Do you have evidence of your "religion isn't important to them" data, because it isn't what you sourced in your post. Romney did well among non-Evangelicals and Huckabee did poorly among that group. Which either blows your analysis apart that Romney only did well with rich secularist males, or in fact secularist is a slur from social conservative elites.
So which is it?
Oh please, don't be ridiculous. Romney led among people who said religion isn't that important to them.
Actually that's not what that CNN data says at all. It said Romney led among those people who said that the "Religious Beliefs of Candidate...." wasn't that important to them. In other words: "I'm voting for a President, not a Preacher."
I can understand how you misinterpret these numbers, Rod. When was the last time you visited Iowa? Ever?
Maybe you should have been at Oak Street Baptist Church a few weeks ago when the pastor started talking about the moral direction of our country. Or at Harmony Bible Church, where the number of Huckabee bumper stickers in the parking lot on Sunday morning is astounding.
Or perhaps you should listen to KAYP, the local AFA affiliate radio station, who has been running story after story about a local anti-Mormon evangelist who released a new book, "When Salt Lake City Calls."
You come to Iowa, spend a few weeks getting to know us, and then tell us what these numbers mean. And compare the numbers with those from the 1988 caucus, the one that put Pat Robertson in second place behind Bob Dole.
The most telling numbers in the CNN poll are the ones about how the caucus attenders felt about President Bush. 68% said they were satisfied or enthusiastic about Bush. Huckabee claimed 72% of these voters. Maybe instead of writing about how Huckabee isn't buoyed by the Christianists, you should be writing about how these numbers do not bode well for him in the general election.
After all, what's 72% of Bush's 32% approval rating? Last place in the general election.
But since almost twice as many Iowans attended Democratic caucuses as Republican caucases, Huck's ability (or any Rs) to attract the non-core Repub voter must be seriously questioned. It's a good night to be Barack Obama.
Hhm, "Christianists," speaking of slurs...
Among those Republican caucus participants that did not identify themselves as "born-again" or "evangelical", Huckabee came in 4th with 14% (behind Romney, McCain, and Thompson...Romney had 33% of this vote).
Given this, Rod, and the fact that evangelicals/born-agains made up 60% of the Iowa participants, I don't think you forego the "Christianist" surge meme just yet. Huckabee has a lot of work to do on this front.
One other thing to note about this CNN poll, Rod.
Where was abortion as an issue?
Where was "the homosexual agenda" as an issue?
Apparently non-existent, if this survey is to be believed.
But Rod, Daniel was right in his opening post.
And if Huck doesn't widen his support in New Hampshire and elsewhere, that will have consequences down the road.
I thought that not only did he win a lot of the women vote, but he was the only candidate who won more of the women vote than the men's. Interesting. Reminds me of another candidate from Ark.
Other interesting thoughts from those numbers:
64% strongly support their candidate, and Huck takes 38% of those, and 29% of the 33% who have some reservations. Meanwhile, Ron Paul gets 10%, exactly the number of the votes he received.
Under "feelings about the Bush administration" I noticed that under those "angry" Ron Paul takes the cake at 54% of the 5% who said they were angry. (That's one of the things that turns me off of him, he and his supporters seem angry about everything) Huck does well with those more positive.
Very interesting was the vote by ideology. For all the talk of Huck not being a strong conservative, those saying they were had high numbers, while Ron Paul and Mitt tied for those listed as "moderate."
Interesting numbers.
Russert just said that sixty percent of the Republicans involved were evangelicals. They went overwhelmingly Huckabee. Of the forty percent not evangelical he only got fourteen percent.
These people have a history of bad judgement, well, at least eight years worth.......
The only caucusgoers Romney dominated were the well-off ($100K+) secular urban moderates.
So everyone who isn't a born-again or evangelical Christian is secular? As in "worldy, not spiritual?" Do Orthodox people self-identify as born-agains or evangelicals in entrance polls?
Mrs. Pringle
1. Without seeing the exact wording of the entrance poll question about "born again/evangelical" it's useless to comment on it.
2. Even if we have the exact wording, keep in mind that entrance/exit polls are notoriously unreliable and consistently misused by the chattering classes (since they are the only explanatory data available, everyone jumps to comment on them, nevermind the fact that they are usually wrong).
Recall that in 2004 the exit polls "informed" us that Bush had benefitted from an otherwise unnoticed surge of "values voters", when any sentient being could tell that the election had turned on national security issues. Those same exit polls, of course, had predicted a Kerry landslide.
Ha. Remember when I said only Ron Paul, out of the Republicans, could win the general election? (And that he couldn't win the primary, which everyone agrees with.)
Look at the 'Feelings About Bush Administration' and tell me how well that bodes for Huckabee. Or 'Vote by Party ID'.
There is a very angry subsection of society that is voting against Bush or anything vaguely Bush-shaped. Huckabee is Bush-shaped.
rr,
"Christianists," speaking of slurs..."
I don't view that term as a slur, any more than Rod views "secular" as a slur. It is a descriptive, and an accurate one at that.
'isms' are ideologies held by people that believe their ideology is better than others'.
After all, Romney wasn't "Christian enough" to satisfy the RRRers. ONLY "Chistians" are good enough to run for public ofice. "Do you believe every word in The Holy bible (TM)?" has now become a 'legitimate' question for the media to ask (despite the promise that there shall be NO religious tests to hold public office). Can you imagine how that question would go over if asked of the Buddhist candidates? Oops, I forgot, there aren't any. Or of the Sikh candidates? Oops, I temporarily forgot, there aren't any of THOSE either. Ditto for Jains, Muslims, Jews, agnostics, Wiccans, pagans, atheists. Gotta be "Christian" to run in Ameurrrica anymore.
THAT is why "ChristianIST" IS a valid, descriptive term. Nothing else will do, it seems.
Here's something interesting:
Compare the maps here and here . Obama or Clinton and Huckabee mostly won in opposite areas.
Or, to put it better, everywhere that Huckabee won, the middle of the state, was fought over by all Democrats, with all of them winning sections. Whereas where he lost on the right side of the state Obama got it all, and where he lost on the right Clinton did.
Does anyone who knows something about Iowa geography tell us about the left and right sides of the state? I did a quick check on the population density but that's not it.
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