Huck's endgame
Wednesday February 13, 2008
Categories: Republicans
Just talked to my mom and dad, who said a friend of theirs was watching TV news coverage of a Huckabee rally the other day, and espied a sign in the crowd: "Crunchy Cons For Huck." Heh heh heh. Like...
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About Crunchy Con
Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.
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yes... why quit now?
Huck knows...
as long as there are "evangelical" states...
(and isn't Ohio one?)...
he can boost is 2016 chances...
huh?
2016?
yes...
after McCain wins in 2008 and limps again in 2012...
I think it's perhaps very likely that Huck's career peaked this year...
the more media exposure he gets, the more he will be seen as an intellectual lightweight...
who should be able to win as many evangelical states in 2016 as he has this year...
good for him...
faith hope love joy peace to all...
Huckabee had no chance this year will have less in 2012. Of course if Obama wins and maintains his popularity he would be a good throw-away candidate, run him, let him lose by a landslide and then never have to bother with him again.
Rod, Huck is not gonna win Texas. Remember, you heard it here first. ;)
IF Gov. Huckabee thinks he can win his best chance for the presidency is to run against Sen. Prior this year or Sen. Lincoln in two years. Flesh out his domestic agenda and get some foreign policy credentials. Frankly, I'm not sure he can win this year with a strong wind in his face as a republican. In two years if we get a democrat in the White House, the wind might just be at his back for a Senate run. He should only do this IF he thinks he can win. A loss in Arkansas would be disastrous for his political future.
This time around I think Huck gets out pretty soon. He does not want to be seen as a spoiler in the party.
Rod, Huckabee is not the vessel for your dreams of a "Crunchy Con" political movement. Huck's fascinating to watch, but he's NOT "the one." Move on and keep looking.
I like that Huck is rock-solid on social issues, but in other areas (national-security, economy, immigration) he is "all over the place" and it's hard to tell if he is a flip-flopper or just flaky. Observe his behavior leading up to the South Carolina primary, a place he almost won and which he knew could have made him the front-runner. Suddenly, he became hard-line on immigratin and pandered on the Confederate flag. He cracked in a debate that the Iranian navy harassing our guys in the Gulf should be prepared to "view the gates of hell." Good for a laugh, perhaps, but it's not a foreign policy.
Besides, there's nothing Christian in Huck's class envy. He wears his resentments proudly on his sleeve. It drove his animus toward Romney. That line of Huck's about people wanting a President that looks like the guy they work with and not the guy who layed them off -- it was "poor boy" Nixon with a Southern drawl and a grin.
Maybe -- just maybe -- he'll win the Texas primary. So what? It's over. McCain won. The longer Huck stays in the more he annoys. Forget about Huck becoming McCain's Veep, by the way. He may have served Mac's purposes in January but he won't in November. The long-range outlook for Huck: a show on MSNBC. Joe Scarborough and Tucker Carlson should rework their resumes.
He will not get the vote in Ohio. After Kenneth Blackwell (ran for governor last time) on his religious right campaign & did not win Huck doesn't have much of a chance here. If Rod Parsley (one of our states well-known mega pastors - catch him on the religious channels if you ever want a good laugh) gets behind Huck then his chances go down even further. We do have a lot of Evangelical churches that is true; however, I would not call Ohio an "evangelical" state - not in the sense that Virgina, the Carolinas, etc. are known for.
Huck's best hope, ISTM, is to become the next spokesman for the Evangelical movement. Falwell is dead, Graham is too old, Robertson has gone over the edge, Dobson has shown his backside, and Haggard--well, you know. Huckabee can take their places as the guy to whom the media looks to tells us what Evangelicals are thinking. Call him the NeoEvangelical.
Why on earth would anyone want an evangelical president?
Looks like Huck is moving on.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0208/Huck_to_the_Caymans.html
Compare this to former President Bush's shopping trip for golf clubs just a few days before his election loss to Bill Clinton. The handwriting is on the wall, and Huck is getting ready to head back to his daytime job.
I can't tell if Huckabee is running for 2012 or for the V-P slot. Anyone know?
He says he's not, but a candidate in his position usually says no, and some in the press are convinced that's his real goal.
Rod, what are you on? Huck has no chance in Texas or Ohio. IVR poll has McCain up by 10 pts on Huck in Texas, 43-33, and latest SurveyUSA poll in Ohio has McCain up by 14 pts, 50-36. No chance, it's over.
Well, now we know. From the LA Times:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-trailtop15feb15,1,3902476.story?ctrack=4&cset=true
"In a biting column Wednesday, David Sanders of the Arkansas News Bureau argued that for Huckabee, money-making and politicking go hand in hand. From Day One, Sanders wrote, "the Huckabee campaign hasn't just been about running for president. It has also been a means by which to advance his career and relevance. Hefty speaking fees, handsome book deals and perhaps his own television show all lie ahead.
"So why should he drop out when momentum is now shifting his way, even though math proves he can't win? Well, that's easy. There is still so much at stake."
All in all, Sanders' assessment was harsh. More plausible is the idea that Huckabee is playing out a 2008 endgame with an eye on his future in the party. It won't be surprising if he stays in the race through Texas' March 4 primary. Establishing a base of support there, spotlighting his political skills for GOP leaders there and improving his standing among the rank-and-file would serve him well in a 2012 presidential bid."
Sounds like he'll have to be convinced to sign on with McCain. Seems to me that he is the candidate most likely to help McCain in the V-P slot, but it's one of those marriages of political convenience so lacking in romance that the two may never make it to the altar.
Apparently now that Huckabee has no chance of winning the GOP nomination, Rod's readers have dropped him like a stone. That's kind of interesting, but even more interesting to me is the question of what will be the upshot of his campaign this year. Well -- here's another interesting development. According to Robert Novak, McCain "insiders" are putting out the word that there is no way he will be on the GOP ticket this fall.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/hillarys_mcgovern_problem.html
For Democrats, this is excellent news. He's likely the only Republican candidate who could win an extra state or two for McCain.
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