Crunchy Con

Bear Stearns and moral bankruptcy

Monday March 17, 2008

Great post from Georgetown's Patrick Deneen, who tartly observes that the Bear Stearns hive is no doubt full of worker bees who have railed many a livelong day against government interference in the markets, but who now owe their jobs,...
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Comments
WFB, RIP
March 17, 2008 9:51 AM

Rod: There should have been no government intervention in the housing market. There should have been no stimulus package. Bear Stearns should have been allowed to fail. The quicker naked market forces adjust prices to a "real" value the quicker, and more surely, we will regain economic health. The housing and BS interventions only postpone the pain. We've lived beyond our means, and are waking up from a credit binge. The hang-over is going to hurt. IMO, the deeper question is this: When, if ever, will the Chinese figure out it's no longer in *their* best interest to hand us the aspirin? (See Jim Fallows' recent article in the Atlantic Monthly on that point.)
BTW, I'm closing a mobile home retail business this week, losing an investment in the high six figures. It hurts. It's the right thing to do. Tomorrow to fresh woods and pastures new.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 10:02 AM

Rod, there are lots of Bear Stearns out there. Most of these firms are zombies who've experienced massive losses in off-the-books "conduits". When they get a "margin call" (i.e., when their loans are called in), they have to bring these losses onto their balance sheet. The Fed is desperate to forstall a panic so when one of these zombies looks to be exposed for what it is, it quickly applies makeup. They're just buying as much time as possible before the meltdown so they can have a plan in place to deal with it. It won't work. The Fed can only supply liquidity. What good does a cheap loan do someone who is bankrupt?

Scott Lahti
March 17, 2008 10:10 AM

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."

- Edward Abbey

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 10:20 AM

There has never been a free market. The central banks of the world (such as the Fed) use an essentially socialist tool of setting short term interest rates. Where else does the government (or a quasi-governmental entity like the Fed) try to set prices in the economy? And they have abused this tool by keeping interest rates artificially low for decades (since 1987 in the case of the Fed and early 90's in the case of the Bank of Japan, etc.). This is the root of our current problems, because bankers and the like have used this "free money" to speculate on rising asset prices. The reason asset prices have risen to bubble-like levels is because the real economy does not need this "exogenous" money to meet real needs. So the money plays games.

There is nothing conservative or libertarian about GOP economic policy *** as actually practiced ****. Because of all the "rent-seeking" (the power of government used to manipulate the markets to reward the well-connected) in the global economy, I think it fair to say that "crony capitalism" would be a better name for GOP economic ideology. These guys have been feeding at the government trough for years, and the little people have been screwed (mainly because there has been no market for their savings since the Fed was willing to provide so much "free money" -- i.e., at an interest rate at or below the rate of inflation.

Kit Stolz
March 17, 2008 10:58 AM

Bigness in and of itself is a false idol, but in a nation of 300 million+, to preach smallness as a silver bullet that would have prevented this financial crisis is b.s. of another sort.

One could as easily blame another sacred cow of right-wing analysis: "innovation." This liquidity crisis began as a clever new method by banks such as BS to repackage mortgage debt as securities, which were then rated by bond agencies, and sold as "mortgage-backed" -- and hence supposedly infallible -- on the open market. But in classic Republican style (remember the S&L crisis?) the regulators both inside and outside the banks were discouraged from doing their jobs. Here's the lede from an Los Angeles Times story on that subject today:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-subprime17mar17,1,1725852.story

"They could see the meltdown coming.

Freelance financial watchdogs who examined the paperwork on sub-prime home loans being sold to Wall Street had an inside view of the boom in easy-money lending this decade. The reviewers say they raised plenty of red flags about flaws so serious that mortgages should have been rejected outright -- such as borrowers' incomes that seemed inflated or documents that looked fake -- but the problems were glossed over, ignored or stricken from reports."

In fact, Bear Stearns failed mostly because besides relying on the sale of bonds of dubious value, it broke the classic rule of Wall Street: diversify. It put its full faith in these "innovative" financial instruments, raking in huge profits, but never invested those profits "wisely" (that is, less profitably).

The flaw in Deneen's analysis is that he applies his mostly-psychological argument only to the spectacular failures, when in fact plenty of other firms that want to be huge successes have done just fine, thank you. That doesn't make them admirable (such as Goldman Sachs, Toyota, or Exxon) but it does mean that bigness in and of itself is not the culprit.

Timbo
March 17, 2008 11:01 AM

Deneen overstates the situation. In the happy liberal Minneapolis neighborhood where I live -- and the conservative online community of this blog -- people don't live the way Deneen rails against. And I think our way of seeing things is becoming more and more popular all the time. My friends and neighbors has chosen smaller homes, smaller environmental footprints and a clear focus on family and community.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 11:16 AM

Kit --

The word "innovation" is going to have people hiding under the mattress for decades after this all shakes out.

The pricing inconsistencies in these derivatives have been known for years. Why didn't these problems surface in the mainstream press? Everyone who has studied economics knows that prices always revert to the mean, and housing prices were several standard deviations above the mean at the peak! What have we had, several million instances of reality conforming to this economic theory? I would go so far as to say it is an ironclad law. And yet none of these wizards even had real estate prices going down in their derivative models. They're not stupid. Optimistic modelling yields higher prices! Ka-ching! The moral failure was massive.


neo
March 17, 2008 11:17 AM

Unfortunatly we haven't had a true free market in a long time. There are a conciderable amount of controls to prevent another depression. There have been for a long time.

I think its sad that bear sterns expected a bail out because they were big. As to whether or not they should have been its a tough call. Letting them go under would hurt a lot of people and be very painful. Many of those that would be hurt would be normal people that don't have any "biggness" to fall back on.

I really wish there wasn't a double standard for those that a big and those that are small. Unfortunatly in this case I can see a reason why you'd want to bail them out even though every bone in your body wants to let them go under.

All I can say is I'm glad I'm not involved in making decisions on bail outs. I might have chosen the pain option on principal.

MI
March 17, 2008 11:29 AM

This liquidity crisis began as a clever new method by banks such as BS to repackage mortgage debt as securities, which were then rated by bond agencies, and sold as "mortgage-backed" -- and hence supposedly infallible -- on the open market.

Were mortgage-backed securities a cause, or merely a symptom? I mean, if the mortgages being securitized had all been (say) 30-yr fixed-rates with at least 20% down, would MBS's still be "toxic", and would people still be questioning their credit quality?

My impression - as a layman (i.e., corrections welcome) - is that MBS's were simply one aspect of a housing market gone mad. Granted, securitization probably abetted a decent amount of unsound lending, by allowing lenders to offload the loan risks onto investors. OTOH, if securitization hadn't existed, but the same presumption of a perpetually-rising housing market did, I wonder if banks, credit unions, S&Ls, etc., wouldn't have been making nearly as many unsound subprime loans, and simply assuming that magically-inflated house prices would make even foreclosure a profitable transaction.

Jim
March 17, 2008 11:44 AM

The weakening of (well, "attack on" is not that unfair) regulation/oversight, short-termers attitude and the "I make reality and don't you tell me anything that disagrees with what I want to hear" leadership style that is in vogue among both business and political leadership: there are common links here. Short-sighted arrogance and self-centeredness.

Slow, sound and sustaining - not the sexiest words, but making a comeback!

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 11:55 AM

MI ---

You're right about securitization. In the old days, your local bank held your loan and made damn sure you could afford to pay it back before lending you the money. Now, banks and "mortgage lenders" merely originate the loan. They collect a fee and re-sell your mortgage to a securitizing entity. They don't care if you cannot pay it back. It's no longer a problem.

What's galling is that the "securitizing entity" is often a quasi-governmental entity (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) with the implicit (but not actual) backing of your beloved federal government (and her taxpayers)! Few people realize that old Fannie has not even issued an earnings statement in a few years! Usually this gets you de-listed from the stock exchange, but Fannie has friends in high places. Thanks, Congress, for making housing more affordable by creating Fannie and Freddie!

So you have the Fed issuing loads of cheap and easy credit below the rate of inflation, and quasi-governmental entities helping to securitize (find a sucker to assume the risk) all this cheap and easy risk.

And Obama, McCain and other politicians claim economists isn't their forte. To be honest, the only pol who inspires confidence when it comes to her understanding of economics is Hillary!

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 12:10 PM

People of faith have a horse in this race: the Jesuits of Salamanca defined a "bank" as a partner in trade that had 100% of demand deposits, not as we moderns permit market players to gamble with hedge fund reserve ratios as high as CCC's $26 of leveraged borrowings on every $1 of fungible deposits:

"Murray N. Rothbard was one of the theorists who defended with the most creativity and coherence the need for free banking subject to general legal principles, in other words, banking with a cash ratio of 100 percent of demand deposits.

excerpted from "New Light on the Prehistory of the Theory of Banking and the School of Salamanca" by Jesus Huerta de Soto at www.mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE9_2_4.pdf

Cathleen
March 17, 2008 12:12 PM

Can anyone recommend a primer on the financial markets in general, and/or this crisis in particular? My knowledge of economics is pretty abysmal. It's hard for me to put any of this in context..I'm either panicking too much or not enough.

Franklin Evans
March 17, 2008 12:21 PM

My cynicism prevents me from joining you in your conclusion, pyrrho, but you have certainly hit several nails on the head.

We are still suffering from the "chicken in every pot" approach to campaign rhetoric. The core problem is not so much that the feds et al have mishandled things -- and they certainly have, big time -- but that they are expected to do exactly those things by the general public. We (the public) want all the benefits of the free market with none of the risks. We want the profits of innovative approaches but we don't want to pay the piper when those innovations fail.

The ghost of Marie Antoinette sits next to me, looking over my shoulder. "Mes pauvre petites," she whispers ethereally. "I may have been naive, but these people are downright stupid."

mortgage guy
March 17, 2008 12:31 PM

"Were mortgage-backed securities a cause, or merely a symptom? I mean, if the mortgages being securitized had all been (say) 30-yr fixed-rates with at least 20% down, would MBS's still be "toxic", and would people still be questioning their credit quality?"

The cause is greed, all the way around. Consumers, mortgage originators and lenders, mortgage companies that securitize and sell these Mortgage-Backed and Asset-Backed Securities, and the pension fund and insurance fund managers that buy them. Everyone wants what they want and they want it now. Until the collateral turns to pennies on the dollar because, oops, nobody thought that maybe some borrowers wouldn't repay their mortgages.

See my comments on Rod's "The other side of the mortgage story" post dated Jan. 31.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 12:31 PM

Clare --

Demand accounts are checking accounts. That is a tiny, tiny fraction of overall bank reserves. It's true, however, that banks have been using "sweeps" to lend out demand account monies overnight. I don't know what they're doing now due to the crisis in interbank lending.

I have a lot of respect for the Austrian School (of economics). I think Rothbard, von Mises et al. have been unfairly demonized because they are not "politically useful" to the powers that be. Their moment has arrived, that's for sure.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 12:43 PM

"My cynicism prevents me from joining you in your conclusion, pyrrho."

Do you mean about Clinton? My hand has been forced! I do think she's the least worst outcome.

But let me be clear, I think the government has absolutely no tools left in its tool box to stop the financial market meltdown and the blow the real economy is going to sustain from this. (But the real economy will not collapse. We're not going to be stacking dead bodies on ox carts. It's just not going to be large enough to employ all the people who want and need jobs.)

I wouldn't wish the presidency in 2009-2013 on my own worst enemy. Wait, that's another reason to put Clinton in there!

MI
March 17, 2008 12:48 PM

Pyrrho - I suspect that, given the presumption of perpetually-appreciating houses, we probably would've seen lots of bad loans even _without_ securitization. Retention of the loans they originate has not prevented banks from lending recklessly in the past. However, I agree that with such retention, while we probably would've still had bad loans, there wouldn't have been quite so many. And those loans would now be busting standard-issue banks, instead of investment houses & hedge funds.

As for the GSE's - of course they _say_ their loan porfolios are "stress tested" via simulation, but one can't help but wonder if (say) GIGO might strike once again. Talk about "too big to fail"...if Fannie goes bust, it'll make the BS bailout look like a walk in the park.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 1:19 PM

MI ---

You're right. We had one such garden-variety bust in my native state of New Hampshire back in the early 1990s. Virtually every bank in the state went belly up. However, the loose monetary policies of the Fed coupled with securitization has allowed the current real estate bubble to reach heights never even remotely seen before in terms of rent-to-own, income-to-loan, loan-to-value ratios, etc. And it allowed it to go global.

And we haven't even gotten into the pernicious effect of credit default swaps, which have concentrated rather than diffused risk in the system. Merrill sells credit default swaps to "insure" Bear's mortgage-backed securities, and Bear sells credit default swaps to "insure" Merrill's mortgage-backed securities, etc.

Just to give you an idea of how absurd this market has become, there are one trillion dollars in outstanding credit default swaps on the solvency of GM, which only has a market capitalization of 15 billion dollars! Obviously, the pigmen of Wall Street are using these things to gamble and not insure anything.

Another thing to keep in mind is that every one dollar of bank losses translates into ten dollars of loans *that will not be made in the coming years* because of the "miracle" of fractional reserve lending.

There are about 50 trillion dollars in outstanding derivatives. To put that in perspective, US annual GDP is about what? 12 trillion? Only a small percentage of these have to go belly up before -- poof ! -- there's no money to lend to the real economy for a very long time. (I exaggerate, but only slightly.)

I wish I didn't sound so much like a Cassandra. I'm just following the facts.

Franklin Evans
March 17, 2008 1:29 PM

Pyrrho, I have no hope in any present candidate for president. For all the gains Mr. Clinton accomplished by balancing budgets during his watch, he disaccomplished other things. I'll spare us both the details, becaue Mortgage guy pegged it succinctly: it's all about greed, and no president has the tools to fight that successfully. All the president might do is reposition the greed or provide alternate targets.

Handling of financial markets is not even on my decision radar. I've had a ringside seat for far too long to expect even the semblence of sanity therein. :-(

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 1:35 PM

pyrrho :
SEC rules deem hedge funds to be "private" and thus exempt from public banking oversights. The investors in these funds are granted this privilege so long as they police themselves, prudently applying contract-limits of 60-day or longer on creditor "calls." Unfortunately, these "voluntary" rules rendered the investment vehicles too inflexible: market players needed liquidity resembling cash. Hedge funds complied and waived contract limits on their leveraged capital, meaning any creditor can call in a loan at any time, and that's what they did at Bears Stearns - but Bears Stearns doesn't hold the fungible deposit, heck it doesn't even hold the stock certificates, they just maintain a tab for their clients on their stock positions being floated.

The reason the Fed bailed BS out, is that when a creditor wants its fungibles paid out, the only way BS can do it is to liquidate the fungibles of other creditors, helter skelter, causing the stock price to drop with no fair means to share the loss to all equally (no SEC rules, they police themselves remember). In other words, if your retirement fund (insurance company, financial services institution) is lucky enough to be the first to blink when playing the game of "chicken" you'll be ok since they'll get be able to unload their stock holdings while the market is bullish, but chances are your retirement fund (insurance company, financial services institution) could just as easily be the last to blink and be left unloading their stock holdings after the market has tanked.

But as George Soros taught the Bank of England, there comes a point where the cost of defending the system outstrips the price of what is being defended...

How does thus play out for chances of privatizing Social Security... who wants to trust these guys with the capital earnings for our retirement ? Enron was nasty for the retirees who suffered the loss, but what if that scenario where played out en masse? So long as we are being asked to trust "private" entities with these kind of speculative freedoms we face no other choice... free markets demand transparency otherwise they aren't free. Right now, we taxpayers are paying overdraught fees on empty checking accounts. Drafting payments from an insolvent account is a criminal offense called "check fraud" - when do we charge the Secretary of the Treasury with impeachment, now or later?

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 2:03 PM

"There are about 50 trillion dollars in outstanding derivatives."

Oops, I meant to say 500 trillion. Ponder that number for a moment.

Steve
March 17, 2008 2:09 PM

From the political side with an election coming this emphasizes the need for adequate transparency and policing. Sovereign wealth funds have been prominent in the news but hedge funds seem to be at least as opaque to me and their motives at least as suspect.

There seems to have been some recognition this was coming at the state level but the OCC did not allow "regulation". In the Enron debacle, Enron first made sure they stacked the Texas legislature with lawmakers who were sympathetic. The market can stumble at anytime but it seems we swing back and forth between too much regulations and not enough. maybe we are ready for another swing.

Was watching a couple of economic historians on Bloomberg (?) and they claimed that with world GDP at 50 trillion dollars the value of securities and derivatives in the global market is 750 trillion dollars. Does that sound right?

Steve

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 2:18 PM

Clare --

I read your most recent comment several times and still haven't figured out what you're driving at. Perhaps it's my fault. I'm running a fever today.

It's important for all to realize that these innovative financial instruments dwarf the amount of stock, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc. that any of these institutions are holding. The Fed is trying to prevent a liquidation of these derivatives by any of the major players because they will be exposed as practically worthless (20 cents on the dollar, optimistically). This is the same reason the rating agencies are under pressure to maintain an AAA rating for the monoline insurers (the companies that insure against default). They're trying to make the Potemkin village look as realistic as possible for as long as possible so that can figure out how they are going to handle the apocalypse.

At any rate, I'm trying to keep this discussion simple.

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 2:19 PM

Uncanny - but Lew Rockwell has posted an answer today to my rhetorical query on SSI: Bush's Market-Liberal Scam at http://www.mises.org/story/2919

"Just raising the subject of the transition exposes the whole lie of the system. It is not social insurance. We are not paying premiums, which we later collect as an income stream. Current recipients are collecting current taxes. Just realizing that — and focusing on the transition prompts such a realization — gets to the heart of the Social Security lie."

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 2:22 PM

Steve --

It might be 750 trillion, but nobody knows! These are essentially private contracts, and are not publicly traded.

Can you imagine if even a tiny fraction of these things blow up? Annual US GDP is about 12 trillion, I think.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 2:28 PM

Clare --

Most people don't realize that they exhaust what they "paid into" Social Security after three or four years. It most definitely is a transfer of wealth from the young to the old.

But the real looming crisis is in Medicare, and Bush has responded by expanding entitlements to include prescription drugs. That'll win an election or two...

Bugg
March 17, 2008 2:36 PM

Chase bought a name, basically. There aren't going to be many Bear Stearns people retained. I worked for EF Hutton in college, and when they went under who ever bought them pretty much fired everyone.This is the scary thing about Wall Street; the salary and bonuses are great when times are good, but when the worm turns no one is promised anything, not even a job.

Franklin Evans
March 17, 2008 2:39 PM

Re Social Security: it was designed to be a pay-as-you-go system. Actuaries have been casting a jaundiced eye on the unfunded future liabilities of SSI for decades, well before the Boomer bubble hit the horizon. I know, I was one of them. It doesn't help that when Congress began to build a reserve against that future liability, it was quickly converted into IOUs in a box kicked into a dusty corner of the OMB.

Which leads to Re debt-based investment vehicles: the mortgage market didn't become Grendel until its mom -- judicious borrowing to make capital investments from which enhanced profit could pay the loan back -- became using short-term loans to make a short-term profit... and o ye historians out there, doesn't that resemble the investment environment leading up to the '29 crash?

Is there anyone out there like me who wants to see the same serious attention Bear Sterns got focused on the fact that the national debt is more than 25% of our annual GDP and growing?

Anonymous
March 17, 2008 2:48 PM

Can a system really be 'free' when some agents within it have enough power to alter the system in their own favour?

Consider the dictionary definition of 'privilege', literally 'private law':

priv·i·lege /ˈprɪvəlɪdʒ, ˈprɪvlɪdʒ/ noun, verb, -leged, -leg·ing.
–noun
1. a right, immunity, or benefit enjoyed only by a person beyond the advantages of most: the privileges of the very rich.
2. a special right, immunity, or exemption granted to persons in authority or office to free them from certain obligations or liabilities: the privilege of a senator to speak in Congress without danger of a libel suit.
3. a grant to an individual, corporation, etc., of a special right or immunity, under certain conditions.
4. the principle or condition of enjoying special rights or immunities.

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 2:52 PM

Franklin --

I remember trying to explain to my father-in-law 20 years ago that SS was a pay-as-you-go system headed for big trouble in two decades when the Boomers begin to retire (first one picked up a SS check on Jan. 1, 2008). Just last summer he was still waving off the problem because he still didn't understand my point! Why do I even try?

Of course, Medicare is a far, far bigger problem short-term.

When do you think the US Government is going to have its AAA bond-rating cut? I think it may happen in fewer than two or three years. Then watch what happens to the magic money tree.

Other Jim
March 17, 2008 2:57 PM

This is why we have such a messed up economy. People think innovation is bad and bankers are evil, so we need the government to protect us. But all that protection means that business is less risky, so people can afford to take more risks. Things fail again, so the government makes it even less risky. This continues until you reach a breaking point as we have in the past year.

The real problem is the Federal Reserve. Alan Greenspan did three bailouts: during the Asian Crisis, Long Term Capital Management (they went down just like Bear Stearns and interestingly, all the Wall Street banks ponied up cash to prevent LTCM from becoming a crisis. Except for one bank: Bear Stearns...), and post 9/11, teaching banks that there was no risk.

His move after 9/11 was the big one, cutting interest rates to 1%. At 1%, a lot of things look profitable. You can borrow at 1% and invest at 2% and earn a profit. Consumers can't get money that cheap, but banks can and they loan it to customers. Those customers invested in businesses and assets, and bought homes and consumer goods. Except these business ventures were not good investments. The consumption was not a good use of money. But the Fed made everyone think it was profitable and rational by changing the most important price in a modern economy: the price of money.

People were thinking, "is this a good idea?", "home prices are kind of high...", etc., but the Fed made it profitable. Now that things failed, some want to take rational decisions made earlier and use 20/20 hindsight to turn them into criminal acts. There were plenty of stupid decisions and outright greed on the part of lenders and borrowers. But hardly any of this could have happened (and nowhere near the magnitude) without the Fed printing money as fast as it could.

Steve
March 17, 2008 3:01 PM

Franklin- Yes. Carrying these high levels of debt make us vulnerable should we face a real crisis. The weak dollar seems likely to bite us eventually here also.

Just realized that I hadnt really addressed the morality issue here. I think that at best we can expect business/the Market to be amoral unless we force it to act otherwise. People will lie, cheat and kill for the amounts of money we are talking about here. Its not surprising to me that these things happen in the unwatched market.

Steve

Grumpy Old Man
March 17, 2008 3:03 PM

Selling the stock at $2 a share is the equivalent of a bankruptcy, except it keeps the enterprise going. It's not a bailout as with Chrysler or Boeing.

We have plenty of corporate welfare, but this ain't it.

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 3:06 PM

pyrrho - we're on the same page, I think. The understanding of money supply as "cash = currency" including the pennies in the piggy bank has been overhauled in the decades since these innovations in derivatives have blossomed. That's why its so important to ask why the Fed no longer publishes the M3 statistic - we plebs play with mathematical models based on compound interest, while the aristoi gamble with mythical ambrosia of the gods... honest economic activity, common trade, requires fiscal credibility or its nothing more than daylight robbery. Whether the funds are in reality minted coins, printed bills, certificates of deposit, shares in publicly traded stock or private contracts of credit, there must be a solid base line for the math to be trustworthy. If the Fed and the Treasury conspire to keep hidden how they have moved the goalposts (inflating the money supply by pumping fiat currency into the credit markets, as shown in the M3 data) on those of us trying to balance our check books, they are guilty as hell of fraud!

Its not a question of whether the monetary instrument is mere coins (granted just a tiny fraction of actual deposits) but what the denomination of the instrument represents: pegged to gold we knew our invested dollars had exchangeable value, pegged to the State's ephemeral goodwill I'm not so sure... even the Chinese declined buying up Bears Stearns at the fire-sale price of $2 a share... Heck JP Morgan declined buying 'em up at the fire-sale price of $2 a share.

What really transpired over the weekend is that the Fed bribed one of its member banks to catch the shit from another member bank's aft rather than letting it hit the fan. One could even argue that the generous financing (never before granted to a non-cash-deposit bank) corresponds to the terms customarily awarded to hedge funds (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund#Fees)
The low purchase price (financed at zero money down from the Fed) corresponds to a nominal | management fee | paired with a incentivized greater | performance fee | matched to whatever profit to be gleaned from trading the positions, in this case whatever assets remain after winding BS down into oblivion (far from the madding crowd).

As you rightly ask, what giddy heights is the Fed climbing when it chooses to defend private hedge fund speculation? The sky's the limit as Icarus' father found out to his dismay (Icarus himself never made it back to recount his own fate, but I'm sure he was dismayed too... and in case my sarcasm is a mite obtuse and its unclear: we're Icarus, featherless in the sun, while paternalistic hubris is safely ensconced at the Secretary of the Treasury, with GW Nero fiddling while Rome burns...

Other Jim
March 17, 2008 3:14 PM

This is corporate welfare because JP Morgan is getting $30 billion from the Fed to do this.

There was nothing immoral about these loans though, generally speaking. Let me give you a realtively simple example. If you borrow at 4% and lend at 5%, you make 1% in gross profit, before expenses. Let's say you lend to $1 million to 100 people, for a $100 million total loan portfolio. You earn $1 million a year (it costs you $4 million in interest but you get $5 million in interest).

In the above portfolio, if 1 person can't pay their loan each year(assume they have no assets), you lose all your profit. You will work really hard to make sure everyone pays their loans.

Now imagine Franky Fed comes along and says he'll lend to you at 1%. It's a good deal, so you grab the money and start lending it out at 5%. Now you're making $4 million a year on $100 million in loans. If 1 or 2 people can't pay, you're still up 100%!

That is basically how it happened. Banks lowered their standards because they could afford to, thanks to the Fed.

MI
March 17, 2008 3:20 PM

The real problem is the Federal Reserve. Alan Greenspan did three bailouts: during the Asian Crisis, Long Term Capital Management [...], and post 9/11...His move after 9/11 was the big one, cutting interest rates to 1%.

As I understand it, the reason the Fed cut rates so sharply back then is that they were worried about deflation. You had a busted stock market bubble, and an economy heading into recession - and Greenspan et al recalling how, under similar circumstances, the Fed's tight money policy after the '29 crash greatly worsened the Depression.

Whether they should've _kept_ rates that low as long as they did is a separate question.

Note also that they was another factor pushing rates down: the massive influx of foreign capital from China, Japan, etc. into US capital markets (to stimulate US demand for their exports by artificially cheapening their currencies). I'm not sure what the Fed could have done to prevent this, except perhaps capital controls (ala Malaysia) of some sort.

Other Jim
March 17, 2008 3:26 PM

Clare,

The Fed doesn't publish M3 because they don't control M3 money supply, they only can change M1. M3 includes credit created by banks. It has a relationship to M1, but it is not as important. The Fed has been cutting the money base for two years now, and we are finally seeing the policy bear fruit.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north568.html

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 3:33 PM

"pyrrho - we're on the same page, I think."

Clare - I think so, too. I can tell from what you read and say that you've been a skeptical observer of this economy for years. Good for you!

Other Jim - It amazes me how many people still think the Fed is expanding the money base when they've obviously been cutting back. As you probably know, there's a big difference between cash and credit. Large amounts of the latter can go "poof" rather quickly.

Franklin Evans
March 17, 2008 3:39 PM

Pyrrho, I don't know your father-in-law's educational or experiential background, but I strongly suggest you not try (again): I spent 14 years trying to explain such things to attorneys, CPAs and the employers we were all trying to serve. I still have some of my original hair on my head... somewhere... there's one... I was a second-team midwife to ERISA: imagine a clerk called into an office with his supervisor, the chief actuary and chief attorney, to ask his opinion of just what the heck key portions of Sec. 415 might mean... and I'd been there all of six months. I'm a smart guy, but really...

I try to avoid prognosticating, because like Cassandra, I'd only get what I deserve for being right... but I sincerely believe that the US monetary machine could collapse in a matter of weeks. Acts of God (well, in my case, the gods) leave me little room for comfortable analyses of trends and probabilities. It does seem quite possible to me that there will be a Tar Baby affect involved: no matter how bad the dollar gets, at some point the rest of the world will act to avoid our crash because their impact will follow ours almost immediately.

Robert Heinlein put it best (not verbatim, from memory): WWII imposed a high fever on our economic ills, doing little to fix them and much to take minds off of them. Modern economic strategists (as distinct from modern economists) may think they can impose a similar time-buying conflict, but I believe they will be quickly disabused of that notion.

Other Jim
March 17, 2008 3:39 PM

There was no deflation though. The CPI does not measure inflation or deflation, it measures prices which are affected by in/deflation years after the central banks carried out the policy. Prices were falling thanks to 3 billion new capitalists from China to Eastern Europe, productivity gains, and cheap Chinese labor. Look at technology, prices are still falling even with the inflation we have today. Imagine if Ben Bernanke said he would pump money into the economy until computer prices went up every year! You would think he's crazy, because prices are falling for a good reason. But Greenspan decided to fight falling prices from imports and productivity. Nuts.

Here's a chart that shows M' as being the best measure of economic activity.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/01/money-supply-and-recessions.html

pyrrho- exactly right. Japan is the opposite example. They've been pumping tons of money into the economy (which should be inflationary), but their credit markets have not taken off because no one is making loans.

Franklin Evans
March 17, 2008 3:41 PM

Other Jim, please do me a favor and call him Freddie Fed, Arthur Fed, or even J.P. Fed. Thanks. ;-D

Your pal,
Frankie

pyrrho
March 17, 2008 3:48 PM

Other Jim --

Mish rocks! (See the link in Other Jim's most recent post.) You would be hard pressed to find a more honest and competent blogger out there on these issues.

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 6:54 PM

Other Jim,
correct, but they also don't control the dollar reserves (or diminishing value thereof) in foreign hands (Gulf States, Japan, China etc). The CPI may console domestic consumers of fast food dollar-menu items, but go do some retail therapy overseas and you'll soon see you can't buy many pommes frites, pizza or Peking ducks with our greenbacks. How does our government keep us informed of what factors relate to the dollars long term value?
They track M3, that fraction of commercial money supply (the increase in money supply multiplied by loaning out Fed deposits under the fractional-reserve lending system) available for long term instruments used to cover short positions in securities speculations. M3 off the charts? Hard money supply oversubscribed by repo trades backed by questionable default swaps. Insolvency of institutional players when creditors demand satisfaction of the repo rate of collateral securities at face values higher than market rates.

The Fed is still conducting repo business at face values... they are perpetrating fraud by leveraging portfolios of mortgage contracts as AAA-rated when they know that the market value of the collateral (the value of the deeded property) is less than the security being credited. In other words, falling real estate prices tarnish the prime AAA-rating of securities status of "sound" leveraged capital instruments, weakening demand and lowering prices. Borrowing curtailed by reduced home equity weakens demand for over-priced stock returning share prices to more realistic income-capital ratios, but gutting the hedge funds of their potential for capital gains, leading to more defaults. The re-insurers are very nervous -- they can't reimburse their clients if they all make claims concurrently.

Clare Krishan
March 17, 2008 11:22 PM

Cathleen,
Here's a visual overview from the Financial Times:
http://media.ft.com/cms/c0b7a3f6-6dbf-11dc-b8ab-0000779fd2ac.swf

Alexander
March 18, 2008 1:59 AM

Actually, the bias towards bigness is largely a consequence of "fiat money", when money is created by a government or central banking system, instead of being something which "can't" be rigged, whether it's gold or silver, or even something like cowrie shells that used to be used once in West Africa. In practice, it not only means continual inflation (masked in our own days by fiddling the inflation index by leaving out things that are going up too fast) but a growth of government regulations, and the undermining of small traders and small communities as well.

Basically, fiat money means those who borrow (over the long term) make a profit at the expense of those who save, especially the small people who can only put money in the bank. Ultimately, those who can borrow most will end up buying everything, because they never have to pay back the full amount. And those who borrow are the people that have easiest access to credit, the government or the banking system: in other words, the big boys.

What's worse, though, is that it's undermined local government. Because ultimately, if the central goverment prints the money, that's where the power lies, and it has the financial resources to penetrate local society and institutions as it pleases, and to evade any constitutional safeguards that may theoretically exist. Whereas if money is something that "can't" be printed, like gold or silver, and a central government has to extract it from (usually reluctant) local communities, then not only will the government (in practice) always take a rather smaller slice of the national cake, as it were, but it will be forced to consider local wishes and compromise with local communities. And will not churn out huge numbers of new laws and regulations. It means that even in a supranational empire, local communities in practice have a very high degree of autonomy - whereas in a paper (or electronic) money system even a legally independent country can in practice be manipulated or co-opted by outside powers - something that the US has often done very successfully since the war. And ideas like "democracy", whether good or bad in themselves, become increasingly meaningless, because the system gets sown up by vested interests, once they have the money to do it.

It's also meant that the small-government conservatism you champion is a hopeless case, and always will be, as long as a central banking system can create money out of thin air. In fact, this sort of conservatism has been in retreat ever since this money system was invented, and it is no accident. It's because the big boys (and the government especially) can easily pay for all their big programs, and bribe (or sometimes coerce) the population without much immediate cost - putting off the bill till later.

Basically, the system came about as part of the price we all paid for the two world wars and the cold war, a price we are continuing to pay, because however justified one may think them, such wars do "not" come cheap, and the full reckoning (and cultural costs) many not be visible to contemporaries. It's no accident that this period has in practice seen the gradual retreat of conservatism. The first war (and in the US, which came into it late, the lending to other participants and the credit the Federal Reserve kept plowing into the markets through the twenties) broke the interchangability of bank notes and gold coinage, because the banks had lent more money than could actually be repaid in gold. We ended up with currencies "fixed" to gold, but not interchangeable. The second war broke even that, through most of the world, ending with almost all other currencies fixed not to gold but to the dollar (the Bretton Woods agreement), which allowed the Americans to more or less "buy" up control of the rest of the world, simply by increasing the money supply. The third war, the "cold" war, of course, broke the link to gold altogether, and though the US continued to be able to indirectly tax the world by inflating the dollar, it's been a much more chancy process, dependent (I think) on a mixture of threats and propaganda, and which looks like it's finally coming to an end. Hence the current crisis, because not only the US, but western countries generally have been living beyond their means. It's the only way, for instance, that the US has been able to outspend the rest of the world in military terms, and (until recently) could appear to afford it. But my main point is that each stage of this process of replacing precious metal with fiat currency has made it much easier for bigger businesses to raise the money to buy smaller ones.

To some extent, small countries, who had to defend their currencies with high interest rates, were in a somewhat more old-fashioned position, and smaller shops and businesses were more normal. I've noticed in Greece, for instance, that the growth of big chains has made great strides, since the introduction of the Euro!

As for how all this came about? It's a sad truth that countries that were able to borrow successfully to fight wars were able to defeat countries that weren't, and (if they were lucky) the profits of victory (new territories and revenues to tax) could pay the interest on the debt. That's (mostly) the true reason for the growth of the British Empire in the 18th century, which outborrowed, outspent and out-taxed the French and Spanish and several others, until the French finances finally cracked, the principal cause of the revolution.

England had an almost insurmountable debt at the end of the Napoleonic Wars, but managed to pay it - principally because we weren't a democracy. But the price of a generation of austerity budgets (high taxes and low spending) to pay off the debt was a breaking of the authority and legitimacy of England's Ancien Regime, until it cracked in 1832. By the end of the first world war, we had democracy, and this sort of austerity neccessary to pay off such war debts was politically quite impossible.

(Actually, that's one of the principal weaknesses of democracy as against older hereditary-based systems: it has an in-built bias towards the short term, and I don't know what can be done about it).

If Britain's finances "had" cracked, and the debt not been repaid, it's difficult to imagine what would have happened, except that the whole of nineteenth century history would have been quite different. My personal belief is that the nearest model would have been Spain, which had actually recovered and modernised substantially in the eighteenth century, but where overborrowing and imperial bankrupcy at the end of the Napoleonic Wars led to the unravelling of the entire Spanish empire (in a rather messy way) political instability in both homeland and colonies, and massive delay in industrialisation. The unravelling of the Spanish empire (and the instability and wars that punctuated it) may be precisely what will happen to the American empire, now that financial reality seems to be catching up with it. I don't know. I'm sure it's going to be unpleasant and messy for all concerned, though.

Still, as with Britain at the end of the Napoleonic wars, massive spending cuts and high food prices (which allowed land to be highly taxed, by protecting its profits) were able to gradually restore the country's finances, and in the long run to free capital for technological development, even though the austerity was politically extremely costly.

What made the 20th century different (apart from the oil age of cheap energy, which meant that more people were freed up from economic subsistence to do other things, like govern each other, and tax each other) was that in order to fight a series of wars, governments started to borrow more money than they would "ever" be able to repay without some sort of default. Sometimes governments continued to do this in peacetime, creating a false prosperity to win votes. And partly because of democracy, even trying to repay it was politically impossible. And this carried massive long-term cultural costs that weren't immediately visible, like the undermining of local government and small traders generally, a bias towards the short-term in government and big business alike, and a massive growth in badly-made law and regulation.

Richard Wilson
March 18, 2008 5:06 PM

I'm shocked that a SWF didn't come in and big Bear up to $7 or $8/share before JP Morgan could meet with the feds. It'll be interesting to see what happens over these next few weeks.

- Richard
Hedge Fund Consulting Blog
http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com

Truxter
March 18, 2008 8:00 PM

Don’t believe one optimistic word from any public figure about the economy or humanity in general. They are all part of the problem. Its like a game of Monopoly. In America, the richest 1% now hold 1/2 OF ALL UNITED STATES WEALTH. Unlike ‘lesser’ estimates, this includes all stocks, bonds, cash, and material assets held by America’s richest 1%. Even that filthy pig Oprah acknowledged that it was at about 50% in 2006. Naturally, she put her own ‘humanitarian’ spin on it. Calling attention to her own ‘good will’. WHAT A DISGUSTING HYPOCRITE SLOB. THE RICHEST 1% HAVE LITERALLY MADE WORLD PROSPERITY ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE. Don’t fall for any of their ‘humanitarian’ CRAP. ITS A SHAM. THESE PEOPLE ARE CAUSING THE SAME PROBLEMS THEY PRETEND TO CARE ABOUT. Ask any professor of economics. Money does not grow on trees. The government can’t just print up more on a whim. At any given time, there is a relative limit to the wealth within ANY economy of ANY size. So when too much wealth accumulates at the top, the middle class slip further into debt and the lower class further into poverty. A similar rule applies worldwide. The world’s richest 1% now own over 40% of ALL WORLD WEALTH. This is EVEN AFTER you account for all of this ‘good will’ ‘humanitarian’ BS from celebrities and executives. ITS A SHAM. As they get richer and richer, less wealth is left circulating beneath them. This is the single greatest underlying cause for the current US recession. The middle class can no longer afford to sustain their share of the economy. Their wealth has been gradually transfered to the richest 1%. One way or another, we suffer because of their incredible greed. We are talking about TRILLIONS of dollars which have been transfered FROM US TO THEM. All over a period of about 27 years. Thats Reaganomics for you. The wealth does not ‘trickle down’ as we were told it would. It just accumulates at the top. Shrinking the middle class and expanding the lower class. Causing a domino effect of socio-economic problems. But the rich will never stop. They just keep getting richer. Leaving even less of the pie for the other 99% of us to share. At the same time, they throw back a few tax deductible crumbs and call themselves ‘humanitarians’. Cashing in on the PR and getting even richer the following year. IT CAN’T WORK THIS WAY. Their bogus efforts to make the world a better place can not possibly succeed. Any 'humanitarian' progress made in one area will be lost in another. EVERY SINGLE TIME. IT ABSOLUTELY CAN NOT WORK THIS WAY. This is going to end just like a game of Monopoly. The current US recession will drag on for years and lead into the worst US depression of all time. The richest 1% will live like royalty while the rest of us fight over jobs, food, and gasoline. So don’t fall for any of this PR CRAP from Hollywood, Pro Sports, and Wall Street PIGS. ITS A SHAM. Remember: They are filthy rich EVEN AFTER their tax deductible contributions. Greedy pigs. Now, we are headed for the worst economic and cultural crisis of all time. Crime, poverty, and suicide will skyrocket. SEND A “THANK YOU” NOTE TO YOUR FAVORITE MILLIONAIRE. ITS THEIR FAULT. I’m not discounting other factors like China, sub-prime, or gas prices. But all of those factors combined still pale in comparison to that HUGE transfer of wealth to the rich. Anyway, those other factors are all related and further aggrivated because of GREED. If it weren’t for the OBSCENE distribution of wealth within our country, there never would have been such a market for sub-prime to begin with. Which by the way, was another trick whipped up by greedy bankers and executives. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. The credit industry has been ENDORSED by people like Oprah Winfrey, Ellen DeGenerous, Dr Phil, and many other celebrities. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. Now, there are commercial ties between nearly every industry and every public figure. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. So don’t fall for their ‘good will’ BS. ITS A LIE. If you fall for it, then you’re a fool. If you see any real difference between the moral character of a celebrity, politician, attorney, or executive, then you’re a fool. No offense fellow citizens. But we have been mislead by nearly every public figure. WAKE UP PEOPLE. THEIR GOAL IS TO WIN THE GAME. The 1% club will always say or do whatever it takes to get as rich as possible. Without the slightest regard for anything or anyone but themselves. Reaganomics. Their idea. Loans from China. Their idea. NAFTA. Their idea. Outsourcing. Their idea. Sub-prime. Their idea. High energy prices. Their idea. Obscene health care charges. Their idea. The commercial lobbyist. Their idea. The multi-million dollar lawsuit. Their idea. The multi-million dollar endorsement deal. Their idea. $200 cell phone bills. Their idea. $200 basketball shoes. Their idea. $30 late fees. Their idea. $30 NSF fees. Their idea. $20 DVDs. Their idea. Subliminal advertising. Their idea. Brainwash plots on TV. Their idea. Vioxx, and Celebrex. Their idea. The MASSIVE campaign to turn every American into a brainwashed, credit card, pharmaceutical, love-sick, celebrity junkie. Their idea. All of the above shrink the middle class, concentrate the world’s wealth and resources, create a dominoe effect of socio-economic problems, and wreak havok on society. All of which have been CREATED AND ENDORSED by celebrities, athletes, executives, entrepreneurs, attorneys, and politicians. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. So don’t fall for any of their ‘good will’ ‘humanitarian’ BS. ITS A SHAM. NOTHING BUT TAX DEDUCTIBLE PR CRAP. In many cases, the 'charitable' contribution is almost entirely offset. Not to mention the opportunity to plug their name, image, product, and 'good will' all at once. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. These filthy pigs even have the nerve to throw a fit and spin up a misleading defense with regard to 'federal tax revenue'. ITS A SHAM. THEY SCREWED UP THE EQUATION TO BEGIN WITH. If the middle and lower classes had a greater share of the pie, they could easily cover a greater share of the federal tax revenue. They are held down in many ways because of greed. Wages remain stagnant for millions because the executives, celebrities, athletes, attorneys, and entrepreneurs, are paid millions. They over-sell, over-charge, under-pay, outsource, cut jobs, and benefits to increase their bottom line. As their profits rise, so do the stock values. Which are owned primarily by the richest 5%. As more United States wealth rises to the top, the middle and lower classes inevitably suffer. This reduces the potential tax reveue drawn from those brackets. At the same time, it wreaks havok on middle and lower class communities and increases the need for financial aid. Not to mention the spike in crime because of it. There is a dominoe effect to consider. IT CAN'T WORK THIS WAY. But our leaders refuse to acknowledge this. Instead they come up with one trick after another to milk the system and screw the majority. These decisions are heavily influensed by the 1% club. Every year, billions of federal tax dollars are diverted behind the scenes back to the rich and their respective industries. Loans from China have been necessary to compensate in part, for the red ink and multi-trillion dollar transfer of wealth to the rich. At the same time, the feds have been pushing more financial burden onto the states who push them lower onto the cities. Again, the hardship is felt more by the majority and less by the 1% club. The rich prefer to live in exclusive areas or upper class communities. They get the best of everything. Reliable city services, new schools, freshly paved roads, upscale parks, ect. The middle and lower class communities get little or nothing without a local tax increase. Which, they usually can't afford. So the red ink flows followed by service cuts and lay-offs. All because of the OBSCENE distribution of bottom line wealth in this country. So when people forgive the rich for their incredible greed and then praise them for paying a greater share of the FEDERAL income taxes, its like nails on a chalk board. I can not accept any theory that our economy would suffer in any way with a more reasonable distribution of wealth. Afterall, it was more reasonable 30 years ago. Before Reaganomics came along. Before GREED became such an epidemic. Before we had an army of over-paid executives, bankers, celebrities, athletes, attorneys, investors, entrepreneurs, developers, and sold-out politicians to kiss their asses. As a nation, we were in much better shape. Strong middle class, free and clear assets, lower crime rate, more widespread prosperity, stable job market, lower deficit, ect. Our economy as a whole was much more stable and prosperous for the majority. WITHOUT LOANS FROM CHINA. Now, we have a more obscene distribution of bottom line wealth than ever before. We have a sold-out government, crumbling infrastructure, energy crisis, home forclosure epidemic, 13 figure national deficit, and 12 figure annual shortfall. The cost of living is higher than ever before. Most people can't even afford basic health care. ALL BECAUSE OF GREED. I really don't blame the 2nd -5th percentiles in general. No economy could ever function without some reasonable scale of personal wealth and income. But it can't be allowed to run wild like a mad dog. ALBERT EINSTEIN TRIED TO MAKE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND. UNBRIDLED CAPITALISM ABSOLUTELY CAN NOT WORK. TOP HEAVY ECONOMIES ALWAYS COLLAPSE. Bottom line: The richest 1% will soon tank the largest economy in the world. It will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. The American dream will be shattered. and thats just the beginning. Greed will eventually tank every major economy in the world. Causing millions to suffer and die. Oprah, Angelina, Brad, Bono, and Bill are not part of the solution. They are part of the problem. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A MULTI-MILLIONAIRE HUMANITARIAN. EXTREME WEALTH MAKES WORLD PROSPERITY ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE. WITHOUT WORLD PROSPERITY, THERE WILL NEVER BE WORLD PEACE OR ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE. GREED KILLS. IT WILL BE OUR DOWNFALL. Of course, the rich will throw a fit and call me a madman.. Of course, they will jump to small minded conclusions about 'jealousy', 'envy', or 'socialism'. Of course, their ignorant fans will do the same. You have to expect that. But I speak the truth. If you don’t believe me, then copy this entry and run it by any professor of economics or socio-economics. Then tell a friend. Call the local radio station. Re-post this entry or put it in your own words. Be one of the first to predict the worst economic and cultural crisis of all time and explain its cause. WE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE.

Clare Krishan
March 19, 2008 2:04 PM

Cathleen
Here's anpther good place to read up on the Great Depression, and the boom-bust cycles the Fed always seem to be behind even while we're told they're acting in our interests: www.mises.org/rothbard/agd/chapter4.asp#definition

Clare Krishan
March 19, 2008 11:02 PM

correction: my 3:06PM posting "(never before granted to a non-cash-deposit bank)" is factually imprecise - seven months ago the Fed granted the brokerage arm of CitiBank an identically large bail out, but since it was funnelled thru the commerical banking business it was "legit" see Pam Martens "Too Big to Bail- The Fed's Wall Street Dilemma" at http://www.counterpunch.org/martens03172008.html

Debra
October 26, 2009 10:43 AM

very interesting article that, along with many others that have argued against support of Bear Stearns, has not addressed the possible risk to the global financial system. In theory many people would agree with the points made on a matter of principle, including myself. However, I support the intervention as the consequences of a catastrophic knock on effect seems to me to outweigh the benefits of preserving market discipline. Unfortunately?

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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