Culture war without end

I would say this at Larison's site, but I don't have the needed account there.

I must say I don't get this, and in the sense that I think I'm missing something:

disapproving of the war does not mean that all the current opponents of the war embrace a thoroughgoing antiwar narrative; many of them certainly would not share my characterisations of the war as immoral and illegal. So, instead of being arguments about policy, they are arguments about “values” and American identity.

The fact that none of the candidates "embrace a thoroughgoing antiwar narrative" or call it "immoral and illegal" mean ... wouldn't that mean that arguments about it that do occur are MORE likely to be focused on the policy (i.e., pragmatics) and less on the values and identity questions (i.e., morality).

And I'm not sure if this agrees or disagrees with Larison's point, but the more thorough the antiwar narrative a candidate embraces and the more he calls it immoral and illegal simpliciter, the worse a trouncing he would take. Polities at war simply do not take kindly to per se criticism.

An interesting post, Rod, to be sure. Couple of thoughts:

(1) Let's caution against portraying McCain/Obama as representing extreme opposites on the issue of the use of military force. Am not sure that McCain is "pro-war" any more than Obama is "anti-war." As a former POW and career officer, McCain has a healthy regard for the uselessness of war (as did Eisenhower, the last career military officer to serve as President). Obama, at the same time, is no pacifist (a close reading of his 2002 Chicago speech regarding Iraq makes that clear, as does his statements/votes since 2002).

Had McCain been President in place of Bush (something I worked for in 2000 during the GOP primaries), can anyone argue with any certainty that McCain would have taken the same approach towards Iraq as Bush did? I can't imagine he would have been eager to go in OR that he would have listened to the Cheney/Rumsfeld crowd over the Powell/Scowcroft group. Even IF he had gone in (which I strongly doubt he would have), McCain wouldn't have botched it so badly. One of the few parallels between Vietnam and Iraq that has made any sense to me is how civilians with little (or no) combat experience were the most hawkish (read David Halberstam's "The Best and the Brightest" to see how this played out in the Kennedy-Johnson administration).

As for Obama, just how "anti-war" would he be? It was certainly politically advantageous for him (as a likely US Senate candidate in a liberal "Blue" state like Illinois) to make that anti-Iraq speech in 2002. But he moved away from that 2002 position during 2003 and 2004. Following his election to the Senate, he voted to continue funding the war. He has advocated going back into Iraq in the event that Al-Quaeda solidified its position following a US withdrawal. And he supported sending troops into Pakistan to go after Al Quaeda without informing the current Pakistani government. Obama is no Dennis Kucinich or Ron Paul.

(2) What does it really mean that two thirds of the American people want us out of Iraq? Our country never has had much interest in prolonged wars. We're not a warrior nation, at heart. We like quick results -- quick fixes -- whether it involves military campaigns or efforts to grow a greener lawn. Of course there is almost unanimous irration, impatience about this war -- and heartache in response to the casualties, including a young soldier from my church just this past year.

So the two-thirds poll result shouldn't surprise anyone. But when it comes to HOW we get out of Iraq -- and whether we want on our hands the blood from the inevitable humanitarian disaster and ethnic/sectarian killings -- here I think the country is divided. Which explains the quandary for the Democratic Party.

Reaganite- McMaster's Dereliction of Duty is also excellent in describing how the civvy amateurs got us into Nam and screwed it up.

I am assuming what he means is that i terms of policy it is clear that people want out of Iraq. However, this runs strongly against the American self-image. Americans are winners, not quitters. Lots of useage of terms like defeatism, cut and run etc. will play to the American psyche and trump any possible counter-argument. Avoiding any definition of victory and discussion of Afghanistan (where we already "won") will be a necessary part of this argument.

Steve

I think it's a mistake to extrapolate right now into the GE. You want to talk about the war's effect on the election, you're going to have to wait until Obama debates McCain and demonstrates just how hollow the entire justification for the war was originally.

60% of the people may want out soon, but 50% of the people also think Iraq had something to do with 9/11. Just wait until Obama can hammer in over and over how that's a deliberate lie.

If we had a properly functioning media in this country that would not repeat lies and would actually hold people accountable to their 'six months', if people would actually hear the truth, we'd manage to have even less support for the war, and Obama's about to be handed a soapbox and a bullhorn.

And no one wants to go to war with Iran, at all, and McCain's promotion of that, including his recent completely-ignored-by-the-media accidental-on-purpose linking them with al Qaeda will not be ignored either.

OTOH, Charles Cosimano is completely right about the economy. It's entirely possible that this entire war will be overshadowed by it by then. Of course, all Obama has to say is 'I will end the war and use the money to help people, either via lower taxes or by using that money for something actually useful' to bring it back. Pointing out that without the stupid war we'd have a lot more money to help fix the recession with cannot but help.

And Obama will actually point out that it is completely and utterly irresponsible for McCain to promise to lower taxes (Which I'm sure he will) without cutting spending. Of course, McCain could promise to cut SS spending or something...and Obama is, indeed, smart enough to hand McCain that loaded gun so McCain can blow his own foot off.

If only Hillary would get the hell out of the way and let Obama and McCain start debating. She's already lost, but the media refuses to call it.

Like most other campaign "issues", the Iraq Conquest War is largely an exercise in media management and public relations. The current war is even more of such an exercise than in previous eras.

The reasons for this are simple (so simple that even an American can understand them);

1) There is no draft. The 18-42-year-old population that would be theoretically in danger of having to go serve is quite safe. Having no personal risk, they see no need to protest. Recall that Richard Nixon effectively ended the Vietnam War protests by ending the draft;

2) Visual-media portrayals of the dead and wounded have been carefully limited by this Administration. There have been relatively few TV-broadcast arrivals of coffins home from the Middle East, and virtually NO broadcast arrivals of the wounded. Out of sight, out of mind.

3) Media variety. Recall that in the 1960s, there were only three main broadcast channels; virtually the entire population watched at least one of them. The sheer size of the audience guaranteed that the news issues presented would be widely discussed. Today, cable and the Internet have produced a fragmenting of audience and thus a lower number of people who are prepared to discuss current events on any level. Indeed, it is quite possible that, for millions of commoners whose media consumption begins and ends with ESPN, CNN Sports and Entertainment Tonight, the Heath Ledger "story" is more of a focus than the state of the Occupation.

Given that American domestic politics is far more media-driven than it has ever been, these three developments mean that what used to be called "public opinion" can be far more easily molded than in the past. Controlling perceptions of the Occupation will largely be a matter of money and strategic media buys.

The candidate with the best marketeers will win.

Your servant,

Lord Karth