A reader writes:
Given that our invasion of Iraq was a mistake, I would like to see you discuss in your blog how you think things will most likely play out during and after a troop withdrawal from Iraq. What do you think will be the impact on the broader "war on terrorism"? What will happen in Iraqi politics? What will happen to the level of violence in the country? What will happen in Middle East geopolitics? Will withdrawal make Iran bolder about nuclear arms development, as Bush predicted yesterday? If things in Iraq and the region destabilize, what will the U.S. options be? How do you think God judges our continued occupation vs. how he would judge a military withdrawal and its effects at this point?
Let me think about this. What do you all say?
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Apropos the mechanics of withdrawing from Iraq, see this
amconmag.com/2007/2007_09_24/cover.html
I'm not sure how accurate Dr. Cochran's take is - this sort of thing is way above my pay grade. Your mileage may vary.
My only disagreement with this is his confidence in withdrawing the armored vehicles quickly and without fuss. I think that part would be the disaster. His dismissal of the damage the Iraqi irregulars can do is cavalier.
Mont,
Thanks for disclosing more of your thought behind your assertions. My boggle was and remains how you can make statements about tactical level activities based on strategic level data.
As I said, I am not (nor ever was) military; but, when military speaks, I always listen, and I pay attention to context and scope.
Given that I respect your cynicism, I will always find it ridiculous that a local commander at any level would put his or her command at such risk, period. Supply decisions are at the strategy level; supply activity is tactical. Tactical activity is delegated to the local commands.
Anyway, mistakes happen. The "broken" comments, in context, are strictly at the strategic level. Applying them to statements about supply lines -- conceding that your points may be valid -- is what I find ridiculous.
If such a fiasco should take place, I would expect courts martial and heads to roll right up to the highest staff levels. To my layman's eyes, this is clearly a situation where a local commander would see that following orders (including inaction) is wrong, and would act on it, or IMO would rightly be the first head to roll. No one gets away with putting combat troops in that sort of risk, not in the US military I've read about.
I'd submit that in fact we just don't know for sure what would happen if we withdrew from Iraq. Too many variables.
In broad outline, though, I think we can say a few things:
+ Our own economic position would improve, as noted above, if we stopped spending money we don't have on this war. It is not a selfish consideration to think about this. We have to run our own country before we undertake to run anyone else's.
+ We would stop losing our young men and women to war in Iraq. Selfish? See above.
+ There will be civil war in Iraq. But there's already civil war in Iraq. Outcome unknown and unknowable.
+ The effects on the region, on Iran, on the Palestinian conflict, on Egypt, of our withdrawal are probably too complex to calculate. Ultimately these people have to run their own countries; we can't do it for them. I heard an interview on the radio in which a person knowledgeable about Iraq said that it's sort of a national pastime there to blame someone else for their difficulties. Maybe we ought to get out of the line of fire and force these folks to take responsibility for their own nation.
Would it be better for all concerned if we could guarantee a stable democracy in Iraq? Certainly. By the same token, would my life be easier if I could leap tall buildings with a single bound? Without a doubt. However, so far as I can tell, we can't and I can't, so instead of discussing the impossible I suggest that as a nation we start thinking about the possible.
As to the military and strategic questions surrounding withdrawal (supply lines, all that) I must defer to those expert in these matters.
While it's true that we don't know all the consequences that will ensue if we leave Iraq immediately, we also don't know what consequences will ensue if we continue to occupy Iraq for another five years, twenty years, or if John McCain gets his way, 100 years. However, we should try and be realistic about Iraq and not get obsessed over words like "victory," "cut and run," etc. These words are good for creating polemical sparks, but they don't have anything to do with what strategy we should pursue in Iraq.
It would be best to stop calling it the "Iraq war" and call it the "Iraqi occupation." Our objectives in Iraq -- elect a stable government, manage the crime, win the hearts and minds of the people, rebuild basic services -- are elements of an occupation, not a war. This shows that any talk of us "winning" in Iraq is ridiculous, because how does one win an occupation? We can set different social, economic and political goals that we would like to meet, but these can always vary, and ultimately they have nothing to do with winning a war.
If we do leave Iraq immediately, Iran will tighten its grip on the country. The Turks will probably set up a permanent occupation in Kurdistan. The Sunnis will seek protection from the Saudis and Syrians. Iraq will definitely be a trouble spot for some time to come. But ultimately it's not our concern. Bad consequences are the price we pay for bad policies. If we do stay in Iraq, what is there for us to win? A stable government that is in cahoots with Iran? Shiite militias enforcing order?
Iraq is too much of a burden on our military, our economy, and politics. It just sucks all the oxygen out of the room. We need to put Iraq behind us, and not worry about those who want to continue the Iraq occupation just to save face.
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