A couple of weeks ago I was talking to a Chinese immigrant friend here in Dallas about China's rise. She told me not to be so sure of that. She said there are lots of bad things going on in China that never make the news -- natural disasters, man-made disasters and so on -- but news of which trickles out through word of mouth and the Internet. She said that the Chinese authorities are terrified of losing stability, and that to believe China is a rising monolith is really a mistake.
I thought of her when I read a quote ScurvyOaks posted on a thread below. It first appeared in a Guardian story about yesterday's earthquake. Here's the passage:
One man showed his raw, filthy hands. He didn't want to give his name but said his 12-year-old son Futian still lay in the wreckage. "Before the troops came we found more than 10 people. I saved two students and one teacher but I didn't get my own child out," he said."I'm already 39 and he's 44. We had only one child. Why should I live on now?" demanded his wife.
Like many parents here, their mood was turning from raw grief to fury as they waited for further news. Twenty-four hours after the quake hit, they were losing hope and only rage was left. They blamed everyone: soldiers for coming too late, the builders for cutting corners, officials for – they claimed - siphoning off cash.
"The contractors can't have been qualified. It's a 'tofu' [soft and shoddy] building. Please, help us release this news," the husband said.
"About 450 were inside, in nine classes and it collapsed completely from the top to the ground. It didn't fall over; it was almost like an explosion."
The distraught couple's neighbour, still half-hoping for a sight of her daughter, burst out angrily: "Why isn't there money to build a good school for our kids? Chinese officials are too corrupt and bad.
"These buildings outside have been here for 20 years and didn't collapse - the school was only 10 years old. They took the money from investment, so they took the lives of hundreds of kids. They have money for prostitutes and second wives but they don't have money for our children. This is not a natural disaster - this is done by humans."
The aftershocks of this earthquake may not all be geological.
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Sorry, Mao: For all America's problems, the real "paper tiger" in the world is China.
I haven't been buying the China is going to take over the world schtick either. A lot of journalist and columnist like Thomas Friedman are really superficial. I am not a China expert,by any means, but it seems that the western jounalist have been content to make proclaimations based on being impressed by the show cities,set in the southern coastal areas and Bejieng. Yes China has grown, but the untold story is that besides these certain cities and districts, China is still a impoverished,largely rural country, with huge demographic issues and lots of festering tension just below the surface. China has a fairly violent and tragic history, and China is one diasaster away from real trouble. China is paper tiger,ruled by a regime that is terrified of its own people. One very ,very dangerous trend is the issue of the millions of single young men called bare-branches, for whom there is not a chance of marriage ,due the insane gender imbalances. China has been here before and in the past this surplus men have been a problem and so they shall be again. China is perched on a real powderkeg, awaiting a match. If anything the recent growth, which is limited to the rich,to urban areas and a relatively small middle class is ramping up growing resentment. The population is also aging rapidly. Europe and Japan get all the attention in this regard,but China is facing some very serious issues shortly regarding the ratio of workers to the elderly.
Add this to serious environmental problems,such a desertification,the loss of most of Chinas polinators,(I saw a PBS special in which in one region they have to polinate pear and apple trees by hand,because the natural pollinators have died) massive loss of topsoil,the poisoning of drinkable and potable water and you have real mess.
Anglican,
All that you write about is true, including the social impact of the one-child policy and the "bare branch" men and the aging population ... and the environmental degradation of the country.
Balanced against that, however, are two factors:
(1) the hunger of the Chinese people for world recognition as the supreme power and culture. They believe that the national humiliations they endured during the 19th century and early part of the 20th century were only a bump in the road of the 40-century domination of Asia which has been enjoyed by China. Not for nothing do the Chinese characters for China spell out "middle kingdom." I spent time over there in the mid 1980s and even back then they were aiming to host the Olympics in the year 2000. So they missed that audacious goal by only 8 years! But talk about dreaming big dreams -- back in the day (mid 1980s) when their economy still seemed pretty Third World by all standards.
(2) the discipline and power of the ruling elite. Whatever the disenchantments might be in the countryside and other groups "left behind," the elites are hungry for power both for themselves and for their country on the global stage. They'll do whatever (yes, whatever) it takes to keep power and hold together their country under their control. Just ask the students in Tiananmen Square in June 1989. Or the Tibetan demonstrators this year.
The elites in power will continue to play their people like a fiddle, using the stick of national pride and hunger for world recognition as a powerful weapon to keep everyone in line. They have used the Falun Gong as scapegoats the way Nero used the Christians and Hitler used the Jewish people. They are happy to use anti-Japanese xenophia or anti-American resentment to whip-up their own people whenever they felt the need.
These odious techniques will "work" for the next two generations. Of course, by the time the year 2050 rolls around, there may be a different dynamic in play in China ... but for the next 40+ years we are looking at a country hungry and eager (and relishing the glory) of "eating our lunch."
Funny, I've been comparing China's organized and speedy response to this crisis to the disaster in Burma.
But, I am sure the thing mentioned above about the shoddy building materials and corruption is true. China's economic development and rise to superpower status has, as everyone here knows, been at the cost of accountability, freedom and democracy, environmental and product safety and much more.
Now, China's rulers may begin to see that operating on the world stage requires greater accountability. No more (I hope) can they import shoddy, toxic products to the U.S. and other nations without being held accountable. No more can they sell shoddy, dangerous products to their own people without the world watching and holding them responsible. This is my hope, anyhow.
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