From the Washington Post political blog, and leading Drudge right now:
PORTLAND, Ore. -- Sen. Barack Obama has seen his share of large crowds over the last 15 months, but his campaign said they have not approached the numbers gathered along the waterfront here right now.The campaign, citing figures from Duane Bray, battalion chief of Portland Fire & Rescue, estimated that 75,000 people are watching him speak.
The scene suggests this is not an exaggeration. The sea of heads stretches for half a mile along the grassy embankment, while others watch from kayaks and power boats bobbing on the Willamette River. More hug the rails of the steel bridge that stretches across the water and crowds are even watching from jetties on the opposite shore.
You ought to see the photograph of that crowd. Have mercy, but this is going to be a bad year for Republicans. Because -- and here's the thing -- this is in no way a normal political year. People are just fed up. We can, and will, argue over whether or not Barack Obama is the answer to what they're looking for. I don't think so, as I've said, but still, it would be good for their character if the Republican leadership, most especially President Bush, would go to Drudge now and look at the photograph of that Democratic crowd -- and this is only May! -- and realize: "This is pretty much our fault."
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It is just wrong to claim that that crowd is all Bush's fault.
Portland doesn't hate Bush because of his Presidency or even because of the war. They just hate him. He was hated before he was elected in 2000. They hated his father -- I personally witnessed a crowd burning effigies of Bush 41 and Barbara in 1990. And it has only gotten worse. It has become a viceral response of most Portlanders that Republicans are horrible people who deserve derision.
I won't say the crowd was not impressive, but as someone smarter than me pointed out. Obama attracted 35,000 people in Pennsylvania and then lost the Primary by 200,000 votes. But I have no doubt Oregon is Obama country.
I think the crowd is more indicative that it was the first nice weekend in 5 months.
Obama is really popular. He is most popular in states the Democrats don't need to win: California, NY, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Mass., etc.
Unfortunately, he is not very popular where they must win: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan and he has no chance in Florida. Unless Obama can rapidly find a way to inspire voters in those states and secure just a few hispanic voters, he will likely do well nationally, but lose the electoral college.
Obama is really one of the few Democratic options that could actually lose to McCain. Clinton presents a much more difficult opposition compared to Obama.
Patrick Thornton, there was a fair amount of buzz at church yesterday (in Milwaukie, OR) about the Obama rally. Nobody knew about or mentioned The Decembrists. "A huge local following" Really? I've never heard of them, and I've lived here since '68. We have outdoor concerts at Waterfront Park all summer long, and I have never seen a crowd like that for any of them. But by all means continue whistling as you stroll past the electoral graveyard. (Now Pink Martini...there's a band with a huge local following! Or Storm Large and the Balls.)
Obama08:
Thanks for your responses.
I could live with an Obama win. It might be interesting. Especially if his party wins both Houses. Interesting, but probably not good for the country.
I'm not enthused about McCain.
No matter who wins, he or she will disappoint his/her supporters, esp. re: what he/she does or is able to do wrt Iraq. McCain will probably disappoint the least, though. Unless one believes all those things he said the other day that he'd do. Then one is setting up oneself for disappointment!
Eric W,
Thanks for your responses also!
It's funny; although you and I couldn't disagree more about who should win and who we think will win, we're far more in agreement than we are in disagreement about some major points. I'm going to quote you:
No matter who wins, he or she will disappoint his/her supporters, esp. re: what he/she does or is able to do wrt Iraq.
Completely agree. I'd go further--- you think McCain is likely to disappoint least. I think Obama will actually disappoint MORE, but only because I think many of his supporters' expectations are highly inflated.
I think whoever wins--and who knows, it might well be Hillary!--will disappoint, especially on Iraq. There are no easy answers there.
Unless, of course, the President's party wins both houses. Now, that would be ... well, interesting. And not necessarily positive.
The partisan in me has a kneejerk response of thinking, "Yay! Democratic control of executive and legislative branch!" The objective thinker in me says, "Wait a minute--checks and balances?" Even while Democratic control of both branches would likely result in changes that are in line with my ideological preferences...I don't think it's a good idea for one party--no matter who--to have control of both. It certainly will be "interesting" though, if it happens.
I'm not enthused about McCain.
This is closer to what I had in mind originally, but I went for snark and sarcasm myself in my first responses.
I know a few supporters of McCain and I read a lot of conservatives. I don't know anyone, or even know of anyone, who is genuinely an enthused McCain supporter. At best they seem to support him because he's their only real option.
And that is the feature I meant to indicate earlier: Obama and even Hillary both have an energized and enthusiastic base. Who knows how it will play out--you think McCain, i think Obama (or Hillary, if she gets the nom)--but I think that kind of enthusiasm (and the lack of it, on the McCain side) is what will matter in the general for turnout and results, and that's where you and I disagree.
But it's certainly a long way to go til November.
Thanks again for the convo; despite our deep differences of opinion (and probably ideology) it's interesting that we agree on so much.
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