Hillary Clinton can't say that, can she?
So, big hoo-ha over Hillary Clinton's race remarks to USA Today: Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters...
You might not remember this, but I remember quite a few people telling me that Ronald Reagan couldn't get elected. He was simply too conservative, etc. I also seem to remember Reagan being a classy guy and not responding in kind to various provocations like Voodoo Economics. The Democrats should pick the candidate that they prefer and win or lose based on that choice. I suppose how you feel about Sen Clinton's remarks depends upon the politicians you admire and what you admire them for. I also remember Ford using this not electable argument against Reagan in 76. That worked out real well.
I think that the mere presence of Barack Obama has a real chance to heal the racial divide in today's politics because if this campaign season doesn't disillusion the A-A voting bloc about their unquestioned fealty to one party, then nothing ever will.
Actually, I think she is saying there are too many racists that are Independants. The Democrats will vote true blue and the Republicans will vote royal red. It is those Indigo Independants that must be wooed, and she is saying THEY are the racists who simply will not back black (or brown). I am not sure she is correct, but if it makes her feel like she will get the support she needs - who is to say no?
She's actually right, especially with the ads the GOP apparatus is preparing for the fall as we speak. It's going to be beyond ugly. They don't have anything on Clinton except what we all already know. I for one just want a dem in the white house next year to have a chance to implement a sane foreign policy and a useful domestic agenda.
Obama has achieved his delegate lead via caucuses. Of course people are going to go for Obama at a caucus, it's hip, it's cool, and it's not racist to do so. Clinton on the other hand, it's kind of embarrassing to vote for her in front of your friends even if you believe she's the better leader and has a better chance of achieving something in the white house. And who shows up to caucuses? People who have time to do so, people who like to congregate with friends and have fun. That's not a majority of the folks in this country.
Just sayin'. Nonetheless I do think it's over now and I want Obama to win so whateva. Still, she's right.
I think it depends on how much substance you want to place behind the charge. If we are talking about 5-10% of people who will never vote for a black candidate then I think it invites you being called their advocate. It is much like the question of how Ron Paul should handle the endorsements offered by a number of questionable groups. In the dominant culture, I think there is a certain disdain for not doing things the right way, and I think many people see appealing to the fact that Obama is black as not fighting the right way. While these things can get to the absurd level - for example getting grief for not affirming a person who had facial scarring from a disease isn't going to win a beauty pageant - I think claiming America isn't ready for black president is one of those cases where you can't just appeal to obviousness.
Of course Clinton will claim his policy proposals are what is harming his appeal to the white vote. This is a difficult claim to make when there aren't too many real policy differences between them. As for reality, I think Obama will be weak in the elderly vote in part due to race but largely due to a young, change campaign does not appeal well to older voters. This will probably make Virginia and Colorado Democratic wins, but make Florida uncompetitive. I would be shocked however if Obama lost the elderly vote 65/35 come the general election.
"But look, as a matter of practical politics, the time to have said that was weeks ago. To say it now, in the face of an almost certain Obama victory in the nominating process, is foolish and destructive of the party's chances in the fall. It's too late for Hillary Clinton to win. Anything she says now, even if there's truth in it, can only hurt Obama."
Rod, I think your reasoning here is faulty. You ignore the possibility that Clinton wants to hurt Obama because she believes that as a matter of practical politics it is good for her, because she can run again in four years if a Republican is elected this year.
Bless,
Doug
It seems to me that Hillary is basing this on states where only registered Democrats can vote in the primary. Here in Georgia, where we don't have to declare party allegience, the majority of Independents voting in the Democratic primary went for Obama. He's just the more appealing candidate - for better or worse, he sets out a far different vision than what we have had in the past eight - sixteen years and he gets people excited and interested. He comes across like a black Bobby Kennedy - and I hope he doesn't share the same fate. Personally, I think it is going to be a fascinating general election season - Obama has been able to survive the nasty negative ads that Sen. Clinton has been airing and it looks like the negative ads aren't as effective as they have been in the past. I just hope that the Hillary partisans can get over their disappointment and actually work for and vote for Barack Obama as president - it will be a breath fo fresh air and an interesting signal to the rest of the world if we elect someone so far from being a "inside the beltway" candidate.
Has anyone seen mention, let alone numbers, on how any given demographic will be willing to vote for a woman?
If we're going to do ring-around-the-rosie with racism, we should do it with sexism as well. Just a thought...
The Clinton campaign has officially Jumped the Shark...
Franklin Evans, If we're going to do ring-around-the-rosie with racism, we should do it with sexism as well.
This is an excellent point.
I think very few people "won't vote" for a woman or a black man. But most people do vote "for their own kind." We see this with older women voting big for Hillary and blacks going big for Obama. It's not that these Dems are racist or sexist, they just prefer to vote for somebody who looks like them. Everybody does it.
However, I do think Hillary has more of an "image problem" as an angry feminist than Obama does of aa a black man focused on his race. Or, another way to put it, Obama is half white, while Hillary is 100% woman...I refuse to insert a joke here :-).
A bigger advantage for Hillary to my mind is the generational split: I think many liberal boomers will vote for McCain while many youth will go for Obama, ignoring old party lines. And boomers make up a lot of voters. Regardless, the Dems were very stupid to pick either - they could have won so easy with some dull liberal.
"Of course people are going to go for Obama at a caucus, it's hip, it's cool, and it's not racist to do so."
Exactly. It's not that it's racist for Democrats to vote for Clinton; it's that publicly supporting Obama is "proof" that you're not racist, like wearing the AIDS ribbon "proves" you're not homophobic. The polls clearly show that in the secrecy of the ballot box, people are less enthusiastic about Obama than they claim to be in public. If I were a Democrat wanting my party to win, that would concern me.
If the general election is close, we could easily get another "Dewey Defeats Truman" situation, with exit polls showing significantly more votes for Obama than he's really getting.
By the way, is there a rule that says if one candidate reaches a certain number of presumptive delegates for the convention, it's over and all other candidates have to quit? I thought a lead in delegates made the candidate the presumptive winner, but was far from official, and that in a close race, there could be a lot of bargaining before someone was actually chosen.
As someone who's praying for a Ron Paul coup at the GOP convention, I can't exactly criticize Clinton for holding on until the bitter end.
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I think many liberal boomers will vote for McCain
Posted by: mdavid | May 8, 2008 4:13 PM
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Even after the Religious Right wing of the GOP forces him to come out against abortion rights?
Don't see it, myself...
Rod wrote: "Anything she says now, even if there's truth in it, can only hurt Obama."
From Hillary's perspective, what's wrong with hurting Obama? She is perfectly willing to do lasting damage not just to Obama but to the D party as a whole if they don't give her what she wants.
Even after the Religious Right wing of the GOP forces him to come out against abortion rights?
John McCain has always voted pro-life. You can look it up. And probably should.
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John McCain has always voted pro-life. You can look it up. And probably should.
Posted by: Rod Dreher | May 8, 2008 4:23 PM
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You misunderstand - although it would be good general election strategy to play down his anti-abortion record in order to attract liberal boomers, the Religious Right wing of the GOP will require that he swear to uphold the rights of the fertilized ovum.
I don't think that working-class Democrats are put off by Obama's race so much as his association with Wright and Ayers. That sort of thing makes reasonable people wonder whether Obama is more extreme than he professes to be. I mean come on--the US goverment created the AIDS virus in order to kill black people? You have to be a white leftists egghead to think there's nothing wrong with a guy who associates with a minister like Wright.
I agree Mhoram. It's funny but when I say positive things about Clinton when talking to people I can't help but get a "oh no he's racist" vibe from people even though I don't mention Obama at all. It's really irritating. Obama is just too liberal for me, Clinton is more toward the centre where I like my politicians.
People like Andrew Sullivan have been insinuating -- if not flat out saying, that voting for Clinton means one is racist. It's preposterous. He's gone completely crazy for Obama, he's in some sort of trance under the spell of a cult leader's personality. I have a feeling that if Obama told him to jump off a bridge he'd do it. I recall he had a similar crush on W in 1999 though it wasn't quite as pronounced. Yeaaaaaaa.
I know that Clinton isn't honest, I know she's a liar, I know she's corrupt, and I know that Bill is a sleazeball. But I'm voting for the person I think can get the things that are important to me DONE, not who is honest. Honesty is nice but look what happened to our last honest president -- Jimmy Carter. Got ZERO done. Nice chap, terrible president. I fear Obama may be Carter II.
"it would be good general election strategy to play down his anti-abortion record in order to attract liberal boomers"
Those Democrats who are very pro-choice tend also to be quite inflexible on other liberal issues, which is why they are not likely ever to vote Republican. The more likely cross-overs will be moderate liberals who are either pro-life or are not very firmly pro-choice, which includes many Catholics. They have had to hold their nose for a long time, and McCain's pro-life views will be an asset in attracting them. Abortion is not a winning issue for the Democrats.
It looks like Al Gore isn't the only Democrat out there in the business of expressing inconvenient truths. I don't see anything factually incorrect in Hillary's comments, though I agree that there's not much use in saying this sort of thing now, when all it might do is hurt Obama. I've been a staunch Hillary supporter throughout the primaries, but if Obama is the nominee, it behooves Democrats to focus on doing what's best for the Party's electoral chances in November.
According to Gallup, Hillary is misleading and wrong:
"Much of the talk following Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries has focused on just how electable Obama -- now the highly probable nominee -- will be in the general election. The Clinton campaign has argued that Obama's weaknesses among white voters and blue-collar voters will hurt him against McCain in the fall.
But it appears that the way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups. That is, the basic underlying structure of the general-election campaign this year does not appear to be markedly different from that of the 2004 election."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx
Next?
Rod: "It is obviously a dangerous thing to say, and frankly a depressing one, because it reduces Hillary to arguing that she's a better choice than Obama because there are too many racist Democrats in the party."
I can think of a lot of reasons why working class whites (or anyone else for that matter) would support Hillary over Obama. And after the so-called "bittergate" comments, some of those reasons should be obvious...
If it weren't for the economy, there is no question that Obama would lose at least 49 states and race would be a huge part of that. This year? It's anyone's guess.
Phil, Clinton isn't honest, I know she's a liar, I know she's corrupt..But I'm voting for the person I think can get the things that are important to me DONE, not who is honest.
Yep. Mussolini made the trains run on time...
"If it weren't for the economy, there is no question that Obama would lose at least 49 states and race would be a huge part of that. This year? It's anyone's guess." --Charles Cosimano
The economy will likely be in good shape, come election-time. It is now becoming increasingly clear that the economy has not and will not dip into a recession. In October, we will realize that the slowing of the economy's growth was not a good basis for such alarm as we are seeing now, and will be in the midst of faster growth.
I think that the economy, as a whole, will be a non-issue, as far as "we have to fix the recession" topics go. Energy policy, oil & gas prices, etc. will be valid topics. But, Obama's "we have to raise taxes because low taxes ruined the economy and provide universal health care because everyone's going to lose their job" line will not work, come November.
I would question the underlying assumption: that working-class whites who vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary because they like her *better* will NOT vote for Obama in November should he be the nominee. Listen to interviews with those voters -- many of them decided late in the game, which means they don't hate Obama, they just prefer Clinton. Nothing wrong with that. That doesn't predict what they will do in the fall. I *don't* believe those polls that suggest huge numbers of Clinton and Obama supporters would switch to John McCain if their preferred candidate were elected. That will only be true for voters who don't vote on issues *at all*. Here's why:
Right now, McCain looks great to voters who are mad at "the other" Democrat. (Be that Obama or Clinton.) He's uncontested, he's doing presidential looking things, he's making fine speeches with no one to say him nay. I'm always amazed at how many people think he's not very conservative. He's like Obama was a few months ago -- God's apparent gift to independents. (If only it weren't for that pesky war stance of his...) By November, the whole picture will have changed. Both McCain and Obama will be bloodied and looking a lot more human. Then it will come down to issues and like-ability as it always does. Age may play a role as well, for good or ill. I think many of those working class white folks will decide to back Obama after all, based on the war, the economy, and dislike for Bush. Some won't, but I think many will.
Oh, and did anyone else catch the little insinuation in Hillary's comment that hardworking people are white? I heard it immediately. I don't think she meant that intentionally, but she didn't correct it.
I think very few people "won't vote" for a woman or a black man. But most people do vote "for their own kind." We see this with older women voting big for Hillary and blacks going big for Obama. It's not that these Dems are racist or sexist, they just prefer to vote for somebody who looks like them. Everybody does it.
From everything I've read, African-American supporters of Obama are more likely to stay home in November if he doesn't get the nomination (esp. if there is a perception that he was denied it unfairly), than women and working-class white are to stay home if Hillary doesn't get the nomination. I'm not offering that as a reason to vote for Obama (if one is a Democrat), that's just the tenor of much of what I've been reading.
David White writes "From everything I've read, African-American supporters of Obama are more likely to stay home in November if he doesn't get the nomination (esp. if there is a perception that he was denied it unfairly), than women and working-class white are to stay home if Hillary doesn't get the nomination."
I am not so sure I agree with that. African-Americans are more solidly democratic with no where else to go, or so they think, than women and working-class whites.
Bouquets to HRC for saying out loud what many people know. Her statement was a gaffe, under the definition of "when politicians accidentally tell the truth".
Take a hard look and listen at Michelle Obama. You really want her for first lady? Many don't.
Why wouldn't we want Michelle Obama for first lady? What's the matter with her, Jack? She's no nanny Nancy Reagan or country club wife like Pickles--Laura Bush. She's no Napolian like Hillary. But so what?
We White people can stay home all we like. It's because of us that we've gotten into the trouble we have with Bush.
Stay home and cut your own throats, I say.
I'm not staying home just to satisfy some White ancestral rage over.....what pray-tell?
I'd rather have the Obamas than John McCain. But then I am not one of those Whites living in Kansas or actively voting for my own financial demise by voting for McBush--John McCain.
"Take a hard look and listen at Michelle Obama. You really want her for first lady? Many don't."
So Jack, you'd rather have a first lady who is a lapsed prescription drug user with a heritage in distributing cheap beer, while in addition refusing to release her tax documents (because you know the trust fund baby doesn't want to reveal she's probably worth more than the Clinton and Obama families combined)? Wait, hold on, let's stick to the blog entry script, which was...hmmm...oh, right, it doesn't have anything to do with Michelle Obama.
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