Add to Del.icio.us
Add to Technorati
Add to Digg
Add to NewsvineFrom Forbes.com, a view that the oil crisis upon us now is not primarily one of supply and demand, but speculative forces -- and that we're in worse trouble than we realize. Excerpt:
What is happening now is not demand destruction, it is a financial disaster. The U.S. consumes 21 million barrels of per day. At $135 per barrel, the U.S. spends $1.0 trillion per year on oil, which is equal to 15% of the $6.8 trillion in take-home pay of everyone who pays taxes. If oil prices rose to $200 per barrel, the U.S. would spend $1.5 trillion per year on oil, which would be equal to 22% of take-home pay. Moreover, those percentages of 15% and 22% do not even include the cost of coal or natural gas. In other words, the U.S. will be broke long before oil prices hit $200 per barrel, and the rest of the world would be sure to follow.
Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal blog cites a Canadian financial analyst who predicts a tectonic change in the way Americans live, thanks to high oil prices:
Gas prices already appear to be reshaping suburbia. But what Mr. Rubin is predicting is a far bigger shock to the American system. Europe has had decades to develop a society based on expensive energy. What will happen if Americans suddenly are forced to shoulder European-style energy prices -- but without the European-style society to cope with them?
Speaking of reshaping suburbia, here's that entry from the Journal's Environmental Capital blog. Excerpt:
People tend to deal with pain at the pump with short-term fixes--driving a little less, experimenting with bus lines and the like. But it takes the expectation of sustained high gas prices to drive a shift as permanent as moving house. When we fiddled with this toy to calculate how expensive life is in those deceptively cheap suburban digs, we didn't think its findings would come true so soon.
That tool is a web thingy you can use to calculate the "true cost" of housing, factoring in transportation costs. It's pretty interesting. Check it out to see if your part of the country is covered, and what it says. The only good news I can see out of all this is that our little house near downtown, which we got dirt cheap four years ago, is probably going to be worth a whole lot more in the near future. Which won't do us a whole lot of good if I've lost my job in the crap economy, and can't afford to pay my mortgage. But hey...
Subscribe
Comments
I sympathize with Old Susan, but I strongly suspect that this time, it's real. Why?
Factually, because it has always been clear that we could not continue accelerating our use of oil indefinitely. There's no breakthrough new energy source apparent, as could have come from human ingenuity (and still might, I suppose, though it's awfully late). Now the less developed nations are gearing up quickly to imitate us in energy use, and that's really, really a big deal.
Emotionally, I'm ready to believe it's real because I've been reading David McCullough's book on the Johnstown flood, seeing how the Old Susans in Johnstown on 5/31/1889 were saying "oh, they've been saying for years that dam would fail." Damn right they had, and they were right.
Posted by: Reader John | June 30, 2008 8:48 PM
According to this linked article, European automakers sell clean diesel vehicles for the European market that get 70 mpg at the expense of US safety and environmental standards.
Americans are going to have to re-think their automotive standards.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/automotive_news/4219904.html
Posted by: John E. | June 30, 2008 8:51 PM
I strongly suspect that this time, it's real. [...] There's no breakthrough new energy source apparent
No need for breakthroughs. Not when we already have:
1. Nuclear power. With which we could replace all fossil fuels currently used for power generation. Not to mention nuking (*) the tar sands & oil shale.
2. Wind turbines: also useful as a supplement, and perhaps even for baseline power (**).
3. Geo Metros: Deploy enough of these on the roads, and you could double US gas mileage even without the hybrids (and John E's aforementioned VW Polo) that are already on the market, or the PHEVs right around the corner.
4. Cogeneration & heat pumps: Also useful for cutting residential and industrial energy consumption (***).
5. Railroads: which could substitute for trucks on intercity freight routes, and are also easily electrified.
I'm sure others can think of other solutions. The tech is there. As for the will to use it, however....
(*) Oil shale: mines.edu/Research/PTTC/newsletters/volume%209/v9n3p5.html
Tar sands: canada.theoildrum.com/node/2572
(**) Supplement: ergosphere.blogspot.com/2005/03/forty-two.html
Baseline power: environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3194088.ece
(***) Residential: theoildrum.com/node/3661
Industrial: theatlantic.com/doc/200805/recycled-steam
Posted by: MI | July 1, 2008 8:07 AM
"I've heard so many cries that Disaster Is Upon Us in my lifetime (63 years so far, you don't want me to list the alleged disasters, I'd go on and on) that I'm just a little cynical."
Just to counter-balance your comment: my parents, who are in their 70s and were young children during the Depression, actually DO think disaster is upon us. So I guess even among old folks there is a variety of opinion regarding what we are facing.
Posted by: bd_rucker | July 1, 2008 11:41 AM
My name is Mehriddin I am 17 years old I like English language.I want go TO America.
Posted by: MeCstar | July 13, 2008 5:47 AM
Post a Comment
Are you aware of our Rules of Conduct?