I know a lot of Democrats, most of whom are really excited about Barack Obama. I know a lot of Republicans, but I don't know a single one who's excited about John McCain. In fact, I don't know many Republicans who are excited about the Republicans. Why should they be? According to the new ABC News/Washington Post poll (PDF here), only 29 percent of Americans approves of President Bush -- the lowest rating ever recorded -- and a staggering 84 percent of Americans surveyed say the country is "seriously on the wrong track."
So why is Obama only running a few points ahead of McCain? Fear of his resume, mostly. People worry about his lack of experience. So do I. I also worry about McCain's experience (that is, what he has proven he believes in, especially his foreign policy belligerence). It's a dismal political year.
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Rod, this Austin liberal finds you an exceptionally reasonable--if entirely human--conservative. I appreciate your work.
Having reached the age of telling anecdotes, I am free to relate my experiences with helping developing the statistical analyses of polling data back in ancient times, 1984, the Phil Gram-Lloyd Doggett race. We Democrats finessed the statistical tools of our time, then somebody got the bright idea of seeing if people didn't just lie to us for fun.
So we sent both a pollster and a confederate to (1) get a poll response and (2) see if we couldn't get the poll-ee to brag about fooling the poll. You guessed it, about 45% of responses were deliberately falsified. We only tested this on Texans.
Zogby may have gotten around this one, but I still think he's just on one incredibly lucky run.
The only poll that counts, at least we hope so, is the one next November. Otherwise, we can be assured (no offense, Rod) the media will find a new story every day whether there's one there or not.
E.V.,
The polling hasn't changed that much. The 2004 race actually supports my point. Normally, an incumbent with the economy the way it was in 2004 would have cleaned up in a walk. Bush, thanks to his idiotic war, was a weak candidate, saved only by the fact that Kerry was even weaker.
Who says he isn't a slam dunk? I think he is. The polls merely reflect the fact that him vs. McCain has not really happened yet. I know we, who paid attention to the primaries, think the contest has started, but it hasn't, and won't until maybe August.
Wait for Obama to, for example, tear apart McCain's stupid health care plan. $5000 is less than half the average cost of an employer-paid plan. As people are already dissatisfied with their care, they'd probably not be too happy with half of that. Forget 'mandates' and nonsense like that, Obama's health care plan is sucky and stupid in many ways, but McCain's is so dumb it can be explained how dumb it is in short soundbites.
Which, really, is the death keel in politics. I'm convinced the fact that the gas tax repeal was so obviously dumb helped kill Clinton. (Not obviously dumb in that it 'wouldn't work', which would be somewhat hard to explain to people. No, it was obviously dumb in that people don't care about saving 19 cents a gallon when prices are going up 5 cents a week.)
Likewise, the war. If Obama and McCain were to hold a debate populated with random people off the street, Obama could win it by saying 'Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq...' and pointing at McCain the whole time. (Or, if Bush actually does go ahead with bombing Iran...)
And McCain, Mr. Maverick, is about as un-Mavericky as they come, and that, too, is presentable in short soundbites. And let's not even go into the position changes he's had over the years.
Seriously, right now Obama is recovering from the primary, and McCain's just been spinning his wheels. It's not so amazing they're roughly tied. As they keep debating, as the election actually starts, expect McCain to crash.
I was very excited about John McCain. I had respect for him for speaking the truth about certain religious leaders whose religion is so NOT Christian. Now McCain is looking very hypocritical to me though. His association with Hagee bothered me. It looks like votes are more important to him than his integrity. Barack Obama granted an interview with CBN which is Pat Robertson's so-called "Christian" network. Pat Robertson is immoral and divisive and full of hate, so NOT Christian, and his self-aggrandizing is a glaring example of that. He is a meddling con artist who smears anyone who does not agree with him. I wish McCain had remained true to himself. I wish the candidates for the Presidency of the United States would not give in to pressure. It is the right thing to do to speak "truth" even when it may cost votes and the truth is God does not speak to these frauds and no one should take them seriously. They are lining their pockets. They become millionaires off of the exploitation of gullible faithfuls.
The Bible reveals God to us as a lover of justice and righteousness as well as a God of forgiveness and mercy. Whether or not a particular event is God’s judgment is "past finding out." No one "hath known the mind of the Lord." Hagee and Robertson tied the terrorist attacks to our sins as a nation. Hagee and Robertson said that an angry God sent Katrina and other terrible storms. I am always so shocked when the press and politicians give these fakes even the time of day!
Cheryl Spencer from Lewes Delaware
It looks like votes are more important to [McCain] than his integrity.
Yeah, I realized that about the time he refused to vote against waterboarding.
McCain is an opportunist. He tried running as himself in 2000 and got shut down, so he converted to Bushism by 2004 to attempt to get with the program, ironically just in time for the country to start despising Bushism, so now he's converted back, and forth, and in whatever random direction he feels like will get him the most votes.
It's sad, he used to be a real person. Yeah, a Republican, so I wasn't a huge fan, but often he'd stand up to both parties, like with McCain-Feingold. Now he's riding around in a bus full of lobbyists, possibly violating his own law, and doing and saying anything that will get him elected.
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