The coming Israel-Iran war

The Israeli historian Benny Morris conceives of a pretty depressing scenario that I find hard to argue convincingly against. Excerpt:

Israel will almost surely attack Iran's nuclear sites in the next four to seven months -- and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country's nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war -- either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

It is in the interest of neither Iran nor the United States (nor, for that matter, the rest of the world) that Iran be savaged by a nuclear strike, or that both Israel and Iran suffer such a fate. We know what would ensue: a traumatic destabilization of the Middle East with resounding political and military consequences around the globe, serious injury to the West's oil supply and radioactive pollution of the earth's atmosphere and water.

But should Israel's conventional assault fail to significantly harm or stall the Iranian program, a ratcheting up of the Iranian-Israeli conflict to a nuclear level will most likely follow.

This is a very difficult situation, and I don't see any clear way out of it. I am glad the Bush administration has chosen to talk to Iran, but I see absolutely no reason to expect that it will deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear goals.

I think Israel is absolutely right to fear for its survival in a world with a nuclear Iran, at least one run by the mullahs.

I think America would be foolish to attack Iran. We are already near the limits of our military capacity now.

I think israel pre-emptively attacking Iran to attempt to take down its nuclear program would likely not succeed, and would possibly unleash a regional war. But like Morris, I agree that if the Israelis don't attack, the chances of an eventual nuclear exchange between the two nations goes way up. Any nuclear exchange wipes tiny Israel off the map, and given the panic it would cause in the Middle East, could well bring down the world economy at the very least.

What to do? I wish I knew. There are no good options, only terrible ones. Thoughts?