Crunchy Con

The coming Israel-Iran war

Friday July 18, 2008

Categories: War

The Israeli historian Benny Morris conceives of a pretty depressing scenario that I find hard to argue convincingly against. Excerpt:

Israel will almost surely attack Iran's nuclear sites in the next four to seven months -- and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country's nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war -- either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

It is in the interest of neither Iran nor the United States (nor, for that matter, the rest of the world) that Iran be savaged by a nuclear strike, or that both Israel and Iran suffer such a fate. We know what would ensue: a traumatic destabilization of the Middle East with resounding political and military consequences around the globe, serious injury to the West's oil supply and radioactive pollution of the earth's atmosphere and water.

But should Israel's conventional assault fail to significantly harm or stall the Iranian program, a ratcheting up of the Iranian-Israeli conflict to a nuclear level will most likely follow.

This is a very difficult situation, and I don't see any clear way out of it. I am glad the Bush administration has chosen to talk to Iran, but I see absolutely no reason to expect that it will deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear goals.

I think Israel is absolutely right to fear for its survival in a world with a nuclear Iran, at least one run by the mullahs.

I think America would be foolish to attack Iran. We are already near the limits of our military capacity now.

I think israel pre-emptively attacking Iran to attempt to take down its nuclear program would likely not succeed, and would possibly unleash a regional war. But like Morris, I agree that if the Israelis don't attack, the chances of an eventual nuclear exchange between the two nations goes way up. Any nuclear exchange wipes tiny Israel off the map, and given the panic it would cause in the Middle East, could well bring down the world economy at the very least.

What to do? I wish I knew. There are no good options, only terrible ones. Thoughts?

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Comments
Lawdog1301
April 20, 2009 2:08 PM

Kasiar, You are either a bumbling idiot or you are playing devil's advocate. Iran has not threatened Israel?!?! Have you not heard of Ackmadenjinade (sp?)?!?! The man, Iran's president, has threatened to wipe Israel off the for Pete's sake!! You want to know why some countries are allowed to have nukes and others are not? It is because some countries are ran by rational people and others are run by insane tyrants. Iran or North Korea ring a bell Kasiar? As for the attack on Gaza....Israel had rocket after rocket shot at her from the Gaza. I don't know where you live Kasiar, but let me start lobbing rockets into your home city from the neighboring town and see how long it takes for you to get pissed and demand your government do something about it. Maybe, no certainly, it is YOU who should get the facts straight before posting some ridiculous comment.

Nas
May 3, 2009 9:54 PM

Lawdog1301 - you are chatting so much cack its unbelievable. Only informed peope know that Ians leader did not say he wanted to wipe Israle off the map. He in fact sad he wanted to get rid of Zionism - which if you can coprehend in that sull of yours is much different to wping Israel off the map. Zionism is racism which equates to Nazism. Please do some research..find out from other non Zionist media sources and keep an open mind. Please.

Lawdog1301
May 11, 2009 9:51 AM

Nas, Ok, I did some research as you suggested. Not only did Ahmadinejad say that Israel should be wiped off the map, he authored these other little gems as well. Courtesy of Ahmadinejad: "Israel is a tyrannical regime that will one day will be destroyed.", "If the West does not support Israel, this regime will be toppled. As it has lost its raison d' tre, Israel will be annihilated.", "Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury." And last but not least. Here it comes Nas. Are you ready for it? Read it and weep. "The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny. The outcome of hundreds of years of war will be defined in Palestinian land. As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map." Ok, well maybe he is technically quoting some Imam, but the idea remains the same, Ahmadinejad would be happy if Israel were no more. So....Nas, use your own advise. You do some research. You keep an opened mind. You get informed. Checkmate.

Jayhaych
May 11, 2009 8:44 PM

According to Shiites, the 12th imam disappeared as a child in the year 941. When he returns, they believe, he will reign on earth for seven years, before bringing about a final judgment and the end of the world.
Ahmadinejad is urging Iranians to prepare for the coming of the Mahdi by turning the country into a mighty and advanced Islamic society and by avoiding the corruption and excesses of the West.
All Iran is buzzing about the Mahdi, the 12th imam and the role Iran and Ahmadinejad are playing in his anticipated return. There’s a new messiah hotline. There are news agencies especially devoted to the latest developments.


This isn't about oil, money or power...it's about bringing in an islamic Armeggedon. God bless you all. Jesus Lives. All the prophecies that are in the bible are about to happen i.e rapture, covenant of peace, tribulation for 7 years, half way through the anti-christ reveals himself, one world government. And then Jesus comes back to reign in his Kingdom!! All glory goes to god. Jesus is the truth the way and the light, the alpha and the omega, the greatest man that ever lived! May God bless you all!

Arya Hakkak
June 13, 2009 4:30 PM

You guys are complete idiots. You have no proof that Iran has nukes. The IAEA even confirmed that all of Iran's nuclear operations were legal and justified. Iran is just trying to use nuclear power for civilian causes. Like nuclear power. Even if Iran was trying to make nukes; Israel has over 250 of them. How do you think Iran feels when they know that about Israel? Israel is a threat to Iran and Iran barely makes as big of a fuss about that as much as how big of a fuss Israel makes about Iran even TRYING to get a nuke. Iran can't even use nukes in warfare. Why? This is because Iran is run by mostly Muslims. It's called the ISLAMIC REPUBLIC of Iran. In Islam, there are rules for warfare. No burning crops, no killing women or children, no barging into people's houses, etc. A nuclear bomb kills everyone in the region and therefore cannot be used. Nations against Iran are the real tyrants. They are the ones feeding you so much bullcrap. I can't believe that you would actually support an attack on Iran. After this war happens between Iran and Israel. A few years later. You will all think back at it. Just like we think back at invading Iraq. You will all regret it. Regret is the worst feeling you can have. So in order to refrain from having regret. Do your research. Get it straight. Because if you are wrong. (and if you believe in God, especially) then you will never be forgiven for supporting the wrong cause back then. You have no excuse to be wrong. Get your facts right.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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