The coming Israel-Iran war

Hillary Clinton's comments during the Pennsylvania debate were exactly right. I think we should talk to Iran, and I shudder to think of a nuclear war (or even a conventional war) between Iran and Israel, which I think could launch WWIII, but I think Iran needs to know that they face obliteration if they threaten their neighbors (not just Israel) with the nuclear annihilation.

But like Morris, I agree that if the Israelis don't attack, the chances of an eventual nuclear exchange between the two nations goes way up.

There's your fallacy. That's either purely a guess based on subjective assumptions about Iran. Or it's based on a concrete knowledge of an Israeli desire to commit collective murder-suicide.

This article was a depressing read. Really, I can't sanction this whole idea of bombing Iran.

A) How can we be 100% sure we have actually hit any, let alone ALL possible nuclear sites? Intelligence is rarely that good.
B) We can't avoid killing lots of civilians. Iran has purposely places questionable facilities near schools and hospitals in civilian communities. I can't distance myself from the sight of crying women and wounded children. Anyone who can has had a failure of empathy. They are no different than our women and children.
C) Iran will retaliate. They don't even NEED nukes. Not really. They have mortar cells and suicide cells in Israel. They can lob all sorts of interesting things at US, the US TROOPS currently in Iraq. I am only 90 miles from the Iranian border. Baghdad is still closer. We are well within range. Do you think our ground forces could absorb the kind of casualties we'd face if Iran used even non-lethal gas weapons? We'd have to return to the draft in very short order. And finally
D) What makes you think, even if Iran DID manage to build a nuke, that they'd ever use it against Israel? If a nuke goes off in Tel Aviv, it will be assumed to be Iran's fault and Iran will be nuked or at least heavily strafed before the media even got word. Mutually assured destruction still applies, even if by proxy.

Iran would be a terrible adversary. They would sacrifice their children and women, very publicly, and make sure that the media covered it. This is the same nation which sent twelve and thirteen year old volunteers to sweep minefields... on foot. Effective technique, actually, on more than one level.
You can't "win" against these people without a lot of bloodshed on both sides. A limited first strike could have unacceptable repercussions. Maybe it would buy us time, maybe Iran would back off rather than escalate by targeting Israelis and U.S. troops. Maybe. But how can we know?

We have to try every other alternative first. TALKING seems to me to be a lesser evil than dead women and children, and more U.S. casualties than we can absorb.

This is not going to happen for so many reasons I just don't have the heart to cover it. Iran will NOT launch a nuclear attack on Israel in a world which has a nuclear-armed America and a nuclear-armed Israel. Terrorist-type nuke attacks, maybe. But all-out and obvious first strike? Not gonna happen. The mullahs first and foremost would like to maintain their regime, and see a new Caliphate of some sort under Shia domination...not simply commit suicide, which any such attack would be.

Now, conventional war may be another story. But frankly, after the drubbing the Israel took in their recent conflict with Lebanon, the over-extension of American forces, etc. I just don't see them being foolish enough to provoke the kind of endless, bloody conflict that an attack of any scale on Iran would produce.

The Iranians bluster and call for the destruction of Israel but bluster is the coin of the realm in the middle east. If they thought that they could get away with it they might roll the dice, but even if they we're successful they would be a pariah nation and they might find themselves beset on all sides (US, Russians, Chinese, French etc.) by powers who would now find themselves confronted with what could only be described as a nuclear rogue state with a tendency towards using WMD.

They couldn't allow this to stand!

There are pragmatists within the Iranian government who recognize that they can only win by cooperating or achieving nuclear status quietly and not using it.

Additionally, I doubt that the Iranians will get a second chance if they successfully test a device on Iranian soil and if they can't test the last thing they want to do is launch a dud!

One aspect of this scenario that never seems to be mentioned is that the shortest distance between Israel and Iran is over Iraqi airspace. So, if we let Israeli fighters cross Iraq, doesn't that mean we've given tacit support and legitimacy to the Israelis? I have no love for Ahmanutjob and the mullahs, but this is the last thing we need. The Muslim world will make no difference between Israel and the US should Israel launch a pre-emptive strike.

Even the Bolshevik’s ideology pre-disposed itself to extremist tendencies in exporting the revolution, i.e. Cuba in 1962, yet near 50 years of nuclear brinkmanship has held the validity of MAD (mutually assured destruction) firmly in place. What historical evidence indicates that Iran would use the weapon against Israel? Granted, the point of having the nuclear weapon, since you can’t use it due to MAD, is using it as leverage to get what you want which the Israelis of course don’t like because they enjoy the current conventional balance of power. Yet if Iran is using the weapon to achieve regional status, and once it achieves that technology, then why would it need to continue threatening Israel with crude and costly support for “resistance” movements like Hamas or Hezbollah?

The real danger is Iran leveraging a nuclear weapon or possibly exporting that technology to other undesirables.

Israel is estimated to have about 400 nuclear warheads, which means that it is the third largest nuclear force in the world

I'd treat estimates of Israel's arsenal with a grain of salt; my understanding is that they tend to vary widely. See here:

fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/index.html

...for an overview. Estimates range from 70-400 nukes.

A wild card is possible Israeli use of AVLIS, which could blow at least some of estimates out of the water.

The photos of the stealth "aircraft" were clearly of a wooden mockup.

Oh c'mon. The 'Big Secret' of the F-117 was that it was mostly built of plywood, plastics, and glue. Just like the de Havilland Mosquito of WW2.

I leave the details to the miliporn specialists, which this blog has plenty of.

Jillian what on earth is a Miliporn Specialist??

The photos of the stealth "aircraft" were clearly of a wooden mockup.

Oh c'mon. The 'Big Secret' of the F-117 was that it was mostly built of plywood, plastics, and glue. Just like the de Havilland Mosquito of WW2.

Jillian, the "airplane" had braces holding the wings up.

No way will Israel allow Iran to go nuclear. Iran has made too many aggressive sounds for too long for Israel to ignore them. It might be that the bigmouth Iranians are simply spouting rhetoric, but Israel can't afford to take the chance. Israel will probably go ahead and take out the sites alone without telling us, the same way they did with Syria a while back.
I don't buy any of the dumb comments about how Iran should be allowed to have nukes for protection. Stupid. Protection against what? Israel? Have the Israelis ever said that they wanted to wipe Iran off the map?
I have no problem with Israel having nukes. I do have a problem with Iran developing nukes.
The hatred factor overwhelms all logic in this case; the Iranians have an irrational hatred for Jews and WILL act on that hatred if they have the means.

I speak out of 100% ignorance, but here goes: Iran is quite sane, well, sane in the sense that the USSR was. And they want nukes for the same reason that a porcupine wants quills, for protection while they go about their business. But their business will be the gradual control of the whole middle east and the oil fields. So I'd expect terrorism, subversion and intimidation, but not outright nuclear war.

Also China, an excellent customer of Iran's oil, might be be whispering in the mullahs' ears to go slow. Russia too might be trying to sell them on the splendid opportunities that would come from forming an "Axis of Oil", which would only work if nobody fires some nukes off. As for Israel, the very existence of that nation is a most useful rallying cause for the entire moslem world, and so she is worth more to Iran alive than dead. Probably the plan is for an extended cat& mouse game. Of course, if Israel is thinking along these lines too, she might decide she doesn't care to play that game. In which case, there might well be a big BOOM!

Damn but I wish we could wash our hands of the lot of them.

Quite to the contrary, an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran might very much be in the interest of America, as the resulting international outcry against Israel might possibly result in that monstrous baby finally being cleaved from America's teat. Last year the photos of dead children in the streets of southern Lebanon started to wake the world up to the reality of Israel; Iranian children with their flesh melted off of them would finish the job. Israel the nation state is not the same as the nation of Israel. One is God's children, the other quite possibly the anti-Christ.

If Israel attacks Iran, I will fell sorry most for the white working class, in “enriched” places like Burnley, Stoke, and Oldham why? Because the number of anti-white racist attacks by Muslims will rise sharply. But white working class count for nothing, to the labour regime!

These Arab terrorists are applying the eastern philosophy of warfare to their war with the US and Isreal DIRECTLY FROM SUN ZU'S BOOK. Why can't our leaders see this? I can, and I have a very insgnificent position in this world.

Once the war between iran and israel begins, one of the country will be wiped out of the world map

2012 doomsday has started with Obama-Biden ticket winning the White House last week. Liberal, blackpower oriented thinking, weak on foreign policy, leaning more on dovish policy from OB adminstration can only work against Israel and WW III is coming closer... Osama BinLaden will get a break from OB policy and a more divided USA, he might take advantage of this division and cause another 9-11 in a different format without putting his hand on it...NostraDamus, Virgin Mary have prophesized these end points... I am just afraid we have not seen the worst yet...just too much of a coincidence..

First of all, you need to get your record straight. An extremely irresponsible state of Israel has been provided with thousands of nuclear weapons and advanced artillery by Americans, that Israel is capable of targeting the whole Muslims world. Israel is saying it out load that they would turn Iran into a nuclear desert. But Iranians did not make such statement. Tell me why are some people allowed to have nuclear weapons while others are confined to strengthen their defence.
Israel's cowardly act against Gaza took 1300 innocent lives, and by the way the ceasefire was violated by Israel army on 4Th of January ,no Hamas
I strongly advocate Iranians to acquire the nuclear weapon, Or Israel should be disarmed.

Kasiar, You are either a bumbling idiot or you are playing devil's advocate. Iran has not threatened Israel?!?! Have you not heard of Ackmadenjinade (sp?)?!?! The man, Iran's president, has threatened to wipe Israel off the for Pete's sake!! You want to know why some countries are allowed to have nukes and others are not? It is because some countries are ran by rational people and others are run by insane tyrants. Iran or North Korea ring a bell Kasiar? As for the attack on Gaza....Israel had rocket after rocket shot at her from the Gaza. I don't know where you live Kasiar, but let me start lobbing rockets into your home city from the neighboring town and see how long it takes for you to get pissed and demand your government do something about it. Maybe, no certainly, it is YOU who should get the facts straight before posting some ridiculous comment.

Nas, Ok, I did some research as you suggested. Not only did Ahmadinejad say that Israel should be wiped off the map, he authored these other little gems as well. Courtesy of Ahmadinejad: "Israel is a tyrannical regime that will one day will be destroyed.", "If the West does not support Israel, this regime will be toppled. As it has lost its raison d' tre, Israel will be annihilated.", "Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury." And last but not least. Here it comes Nas. Are you ready for it? Read it and weep. "The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny. The outcome of hundreds of years of war will be defined in Palestinian land. As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map." Ok, well maybe he is technically quoting some Imam, but the idea remains the same, Ahmadinejad would be happy if Israel were no more. So....Nas, use your own advise. You do some research. You keep an opened mind. You get informed. Checkmate.

You guys are complete idiots. You have no proof that Iran has nukes. The IAEA even confirmed that all of Iran's nuclear operations were legal and justified. Iran is just trying to use nuclear power for civilian causes. Like nuclear power. Even if Iran was trying to make nukes; Israel has over 250 of them. How do you think Iran feels when they know that about Israel? Israel is a threat to Iran and Iran barely makes as big of a fuss about that as much as how big of a fuss Israel makes about Iran even TRYING to get a nuke. Iran can't even use nukes in warfare. Why? This is because Iran is run by mostly Muslims. It's called the ISLAMIC REPUBLIC of Iran. In Islam, there are rules for warfare. No burning crops, no killing women or children, no barging into people's houses, etc. A nuclear bomb kills everyone in the region and therefore cannot be used. Nations against Iran are the real tyrants. They are the ones feeding you so much bullcrap. I can't believe that you would actually support an attack on Iran. After this war happens between Iran and Israel. A few years later. You will all think back at it. Just like we think back at invading Iraq. You will all regret it. Regret is the worst feeling you can have. So in order to refrain from having regret. Do your research. Get it straight. Because if you are wrong. (and if you believe in God, especially) then you will never be forgiven for supporting the wrong cause back then. You have no excuse to be wrong. Get your facts right.

One school of thought says that Iran is a sane player and therefore would never nuke Israel because Israel (or the USA) would wipe them out with nukes in a counter attack.

The other school of thought understands the real religion of Iran. In their religion they are taught to believe that amageddon will bring the return of the Mahdi and make Islam rule forever. This belief, while strange to us, is very real to the Mullahs that rule Iran and their people. This is their way of life and is why Israel is on edge with this situation. This is why Iran keeps making bold threats upon Israel. Basically, armageddon is Iran's convenient fallback position or no lose position.

The real key to unlocking the intelligence of this matter lies in closely watching if Iran crosses a certain line in their nuclear rollout. This line is where it becomes clear that Iran doesn't really care if their is a counter attack. I am certain that Israel and USA Intelligence are closely watching to see if Iran crosses this line. If they do, war begins, and if it fails to stop their nuclear weapons program, they will get their armageddon. which may not be all that "bad" for them, "according to their religion". We must also remember how Israelis would feel about being wiped out. This puts a very sharp edge on the whole matter.

I personally believe that Iran is following the dictates of their religion. If not stopped, they will nuke up and wipe out Israel in the process.