Crunchy Con

McCain's up by five points over Obama

Wednesday August 20, 2008

Categories: Democrats, Republicans
According to the new Reuters poll, John McCain is beating Barack Obama by five percentage points. Who would have predicted that? Turns out that the McCain camp was smart to go after Obama's celebrity image. Suddenly, Obama's decision to make...
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Comments
Irenaeus
August 20, 2008 8:33 AM

Well, Tim Kaine is functionally pro-abortion, so no problem there. But he's one of those "moderate" pro-choicers. He's also a (nominal) Catholic, and last I heard, Obama was losing the Catholic vote by about 15% (unless that's changed recently). Virginia would also be in play for Obama, and that matters. Politically, Kaine's probably a smart choice.

Sami
August 20, 2008 8:50 AM

I thought it would be Wesley Clark, simply because the program that night is on Securing America and Wesley Clark's campaign was 'Securing America'. Also, Clark has not been given a speaking spot at the convention and isn't even supposed to appear, which is not good campaign management on Obama's part, if true. So I think he'll be a surprise choice.

Although Evan Bayh's wife supposedly told her neighbors to be watching for a horde of media coverage. . . . .

Kirk
August 20, 2008 9:01 AM

Biden is Catholic, too. I think it would be smart to have a Catholic on the ticket to help balance out the evangelical vote. On the other hand, Biden would be liable to make Obama look young and inexperienced by contrast.

Rod Dreher
August 20, 2008 9:08 AM

There is no such thing as "the Catholic vote." Catholic voting patterns are no different than most of America's general voting pattern. Catholics who are regular massgoers tend to vote Republican, while Catholics who don't practice the faith as diligently are more likely to vote Democratic. (There are exceptions on both sides, of course, but that's the general finding that's been repeatedly borne out by opinion polls). Catholics for whom abortion is a decisive issue in their presidential voting would be far more likely to vote for a candidate who chose a pro-life Evangelical than a pro-choice Catholic.

Nick the Greek
August 20, 2008 9:11 AM

Irenaeus: Kaine's speech on abortion sounds like the boilerplate speech that pro-life Democrats are forced to make in order not to frighten the boomers, just as McCain's newfound conversion to the pro-life cause is necessary to reassure Southern and Evangelical Republican voters. Are polygraph tests for candidates legal? Personally, I think they should be compulsory.

Derek Copold
August 20, 2008 9:47 AM

In fairness to McCain (someone I don't really feel charitable towards), he has a consistent "pro-life" record. He hasn't been the warmest advocate of the cause, but he's never been "pro-choice."

Derek Copold
August 20, 2008 10:00 AM

Obama could run the most popular man/woman for VP and still lose. A running mate isn't going to help him. At best, his choice won't hurt him. The problem with the campaign is at the top. Unless he has some super plan we're not aware of to really change things after the convention, there's a serious loss of momentum on Obama's behalf, and he needs to make some changes.

Grumpy Old Man
August 20, 2008 10:11 AM

Spare us Slow Joe, please!

An Obama-Biden ticked would give the lie to the old song title, "Talkin' Is a Woman, Listenin' Is a Man."

Never thought it be nostalgic for tha apparatchik speaking style of HRC.

Kimberly
August 20, 2008 10:29 AM

I think it would be smart to have a Catholic on the ticket to help balance out the evangelical vote.

That didn't work out for John "former altar boy" Kerry too well.

Seriously, Rod is right - the "Catholic vote" is not monolithic, and as with most religious voters I've studied, the single best predictive factor of how a person will vote is how often they attend church. Weekly Mass-goers are much more likely to vote Republican (and prefer pro-life, non-Catholic candidates like Romney over pro-choice Catholics like Pelosi or Kerry), while those who do not attend regular services are no more likely to vote Republican than any other demographic.

Rob
August 20, 2008 10:30 AM

I'm holding out for Hillary. Whatever else you may think of the Clintons, and just about anything that can be thought is, they are masterful politicians who would close the gap when it counts, on Election Day.

Dale Price
August 20, 2008 10:38 AM

We're 76 days from e-day, so the polls are only reflecting the most recent trends. Also, Zogby tends to come up with some bizarro results, so I recommend not a grain of salt, but the whole package of Morton's.

And while I hate to play nitnoid to you, Derek, McCain's stance on embryonic stem cell research makes him less than pro-life. Yes, his rhetoric has been trending away from use of "leftover" (God help us) embryonic life, but that's still a grotesque blot.

SeanH
August 20, 2008 10:39 AM

You have to question whether Kaine will actually help win VA. He has some of the lowest approaval ratings ever for a VA governor - in the low 40's.

The Man From K Street
August 20, 2008 11:13 AM

Four years ago Obama was an Illinois state senator coming out of a crowded primary field. Four years ago Tim Kaine was a mid-term Lieutenant Governor (i.e. doing pretty much of nothing) whose chief claim to fame was two years as the ceremonial mayor* of America's 105th largest city (sandwiched between Spokane and Shreveport). The depth of such a ticket would be stunning indeed.

*Yes, I know Richmond's model of government changed from a weak-mayor, council-manager form to a strong mayor form. In 2004, post-Tim. Should Kaine be the Veep pick, I really, really look forward to hearing what all those people who never tired of pointing out in 2000 that Texas' governor is about the weakest constitutionally in the Union will say.

gmo2
August 20, 2008 11:18 AM

According to today's Gallup, it's Obama 45%, McCain 44%...are any polls accurate? And what difference do any of them make when the election is still months away?

As far as the VP spot goes, it's not going to swing the election unless Obama chose Edwards. Catholics are not going to vote for someone just because the VP candidate is Catholic. There has been a Catholic President, so a Catholic VP is no big deal. Plus all the comments about the so-called Catholic vote is true. Catholics vote on their party, rather than religious, affiliation. I think it's only marginally helpful in carrying a state to have a person from that state on the ticket. Obama needs someone strong on the ticket. I'm not sure Biden or Clark would do it. Sam Nunn might. Kerry picked a weak VP candidate and it didn't help.

Derek Copold
August 20, 2008 11:18 AM

Dale,

D'oh! I forgot about the stem cell issue. Still, McCain's not exactly having a come-to-Jesus moment on the same scale that someone like Romney did.

Lawrence
August 20, 2008 11:20 AM

As a Virginian, I can tell you that Tim Kaine might be smart and a regular guy, but he is not all that popular or regarded as effective. He is completely Mark Warner's hand-picked successor, and has absolutely no national level experience. I don't think he would "deliver" VA simply by being chosen; if that happens it will be Warner, Webb, and the African-American vote plus Northern VA that puts VA in the Obama column. I am just not sure what is you see in Kaine, Rod, bad haircut or not.

Nick the Greek
August 20, 2008 11:21 AM

Derek: I guess it must have been a diffeent John McCain who, in 1999, said "in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade."

Joe Momma
August 20, 2008 11:31 AM

Hey, it's better for McCain to peak now than in November. :)

The Man From K Street
August 20, 2008 11:44 AM

I am just not sure what is you see in Kaine, Rod, bad haircut or not.

I don't understand what Rod sees in Webb either. He just seems to be in denial about politicians when they come from Virginia, I guess, but it surprised me when he waxed on about how he'd vote for any ticket with Webb on it, top or bottom.

What's so great about Jim Webb, on the things Rod really cares about? He is wobbly on illegal immigration (votes yes on the latest amnesty bill, ultimately no in the one during the summer), supports affirmative action "if it’s extended to poor whites" and votes against Photo IDs. Americans for Better Immigration gave Webb a immigration score of C-, the same as Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

I guess Rod is so sick of Republicans that he's become desperate to delude himself into thinking the guy doesn't suck, but at the end of the day, Jim Webb has become a partisan leftist who hasn't met an entitlement program he didn't want to expand, and who at best votes like a moderate Republican on immigration and race issues. Just because he yells a lot and looks angry, carries guns and acts the tough redneck, we are all supposed to recognize him as some sort of principled conservative? It is to laugh.

Oh yes, I forgot why Rod loves him: Iraq. But even those who like his opposition towards starting the war cannot be particularly impressed by Webb's response since 2006. Watching Webb try to finesse away the Surge's success is just painful, because the guy is in total denial.

Derek Copold
August 20, 2008 11:54 AM

Watching Webb try to finesse away the Surge's success is just painful, because the guy is in total denial.

Yeah, it's great that we've spent trillions, killed over 4,000 Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis all for the sake of putting an Iranian-sponsored con man in power. Money and lives well spent.

Linda
August 20, 2008 11:57 AM

If Wesley Clark is not the VP, then McCain is right that Obama doesn't have the good judgment to be president. Who else is the best person to be the vice president? All these three names mentioned, ie. Bayh, Biden, and Kaine don't have the complete package traist to help Obama win this election. Wesley Clark has the military/national security credentials to compete against the Republicans. It is a pity that he is completely eliminated and no role to play at the convention. I would say that if this is true, then Obama has no good judgment.

Linda
August 20, 2008 11:57 AM

If Wesley Clark is not the VP, then McCain is right that Obama doesn't have the good judgment to be president. Who else is the best person to be the vice president? All these three names mentioned, ie. Bayh, Biden, and Kaine don't have the complete package traist to help Obama win this election. Wesley Clark has the military/national security credentials to compete against the Republicans. It is a pity that he is completely eliminated and no role to play at the convention. I would say that if this is true, then Obama has no good judgment.

Rod Dreher
August 20, 2008 11:57 AM

Look, I don't know much about Kaine. He might be a lousy candidate. I'm not voting Obama anyway, so I don't much care. Obama needs a Regular White Guy on the ticket, is all I'm saying.

The Man From K Street
August 20, 2008 12:08 PM

I also having been hearing these rumors for a couple weeks (well before Michael Moore's open letter yesterday) from people close to Obama's financial backers on the Left Coast that Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg (head of the search committee) will 'pull a Cheney' and put her name forward as the best running mate. Ordinarily I'd dismiss it all, but the current unease among Democrat operators (that will rise to a panic if Obama doesn't get a huge convention bounce) over a situation where he should have something like a 15 point lead is such that I wonder if it isn't being seriously considered.

Daniel
August 20, 2008 12:19 PM

Eh, once McCain nominates Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman, the game's over. The social conservatives will explode, any coalition will crumble, and Obama will win big. Abortion triumphs everything else in the GOP and if McCain picks a pro-choice moderate, the far right will stay home.

Eric W
August 20, 2008 12:35 PM

Since Obama is wanting to go where no man has gone before, I think he should tap William Shatner for VP.

If McCain picks Lieberman, I'm voting for Mr. Spock.

Kirk
August 20, 2008 12:39 PM

The polls are meaningless unless they tell us the numbers from the swing states. Gore got more votes than Bush, which should mean he was ahead in the polls. Popular vote doesn't mean anything, of course; so we need to know who's ahead in specific states.

Kirk
August 20, 2008 12:46 PM

The polls are meaningless unless they tell us the numbers from the swing states. Gore got more votes than Bush, which should mean he was ahead in the polls. Popular vote doesn't mean anything, of course; so we need to know who's ahead in specific states.

Kirk
August 20, 2008 12:52 PM

EricW, unfortunately The Shatner is Canadian--French Canadian at that--so he's out. What about Phil Donahue?

Brian aka New Age Cowboy
August 20, 2008 1:19 PM

Folks better take into account how McCain brags that war is basically a way of life for his family.
This morning McCain admitted on CNN that Georgians provoked Russia. But hey, he's full steam ahead on starting a new Cold War.
Here comes World War III. All the suburban and rural Republicans are gonna regret it when their kids are drafted to fight in Iran. Our current troops are already overstretched. Remember McCain actually singing "Bomb Iran" to the tune of the similarly titled Beach Boys song?
If it's one thing we've learned, when Republicans say they want war, you better count on it. Besides, McCain's corporate paymasters come from big oil and the military industrial complex.

Eric W
August 20, 2008 1:20 PM

Phil Donahue? Is he still alive? ;^)

I don't think Phil has gone where no man has gone before, though.

Maybe Ron Perlman. I like Hellboy.

The Man From K Street
August 20, 2008 1:42 PM

I'd now also put the chances at Hillary attempting some Machiavellian 11th hour attempt to snatch the nomination back on the convention floor at 5%. Not likely at all, but I would have said 0% last week.

It would be very subtle. Perhaps along the lines of maneuvering a panicking Team Obama into picking Chuck Hagel, which ostensibly would be to shore up his national security image, but in fact would trigger a revolt of the superdelegates. Allowing her to be on the ballot next week may go down as one of the most colossal blunders in American political history, right up there with Jefferson picking Aaron Burr as his running mate.

Joel
August 20, 2008 2:10 PM

Why is McCain leading? Why, Rod explained it yesterday on the front page of this blog:

"You'd think we Americans would have learned to be more skeptical of would-be presidents willing to rush to war, given events of the past five years or so. You would be wrong."

John C
August 20, 2008 4:42 PM

To all of you who still want to whine and complain about the Surge and how things have finally turned the corner - the US did what was necessary. Do you remember what Patton said when he wanted to continue his army's progress against the Soviets? He said that we are going to have to fight them sooner or later. Well the Cold War lasted over 40 years. And cost us thousands of lives and trillions of dollars.

Have any of you investigated the lives of Saddam;s two sons? Saddam was not the threat to the US, his two sons were. And they had to be taken out sooner or later. The Iraq war was a preemptive war. They DID have WMD's and they DID use them against their own populace and the ground war on terrorism IS being fought on forein soil since 9/11. And God willing the US will have a stable ally besides Israel in the Middle East. 9/11 cost the US more than 4,000 lives and trillions of dollars. You guys are a bunch of Neville Chamberlains. Just quit whining and support your servicemen in their valient line of duty.

charles cosimano
August 20, 2008 7:31 PM

I really love it when folks get hysterical and say that people's kids are going to be drafted. I'll believe that when they distribute suicide pills and Hara Kiri knives to the folks in Congress because if they vote that none of them will be back.

Brian aka New Age Cowboy
August 20, 2008 10:45 PM

charles cosimano,
Just today McCain hints at draft re-instatement!
MSNBC is reporting (NBC Political Director Chuck Todd confirms) that an audience member at a McCain town hall in Las Cruces, N.M. said that they'd have to reinstate the draft to get bin Laden. McCain said that he didn't disagree with that.

DavidTC
August 21, 2008 10:23 AM

Hrm, my post was held and still hasn't shown up. As it was tryig to point out, McCain and Obama are only close if you pretend 'nationwide polling data' is a logical way to guess who's going to win the election.

It obviously isn't. People need to look at 270towin.com. (Not linking because I suspect that's what made my post get held.)

The race isn't really that close, although it's actually about 15 percent closer than when I made my original post. The media just wants to pretend it is close.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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