Nouriel Rubini, Permabear

Here's a lengthy NYT Magazine profile of Nouriel Rubini, the pessimistic economist who predicted our current malaise, and who says we've got a long way to go through the valley of the shadow of debt before emerging into daylight. Excerpt:

Roubini argues that most of the losses from this bad debt have yet to be written off, and the toll from bad commercial real estate loans alone may help send hundreds of local banks into the arms of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. "A good third of the regional banks won't make it," he predicted. In turn, these bailouts will add hundreds of billions of dollars to an already gargantuan federal debt, and someone, somewhere, is going to have to finance that debt, along with all the other debt accumulated by consumers and corporations. "Our biggest financiers are China, Russia and the gulf states," Roubini noted. "These are rivals, not allies."

The United States, Roubini went on, will likely muddle through the crisis but will emerge from it a different nation, with a different place in the world. "Once you run current-account deficits, you depend on the kindness of strangers," he said, pausing to let out a resigned sigh. "This might be the beginning of the end of the American empire."

Over to you, Dr. Bacevich.

BTW, here's a link to Nouriel Roubini's blog. And, if you're interested in this sort of decline-and-fall thing, and live in the Dallas area, come out to the Dallas Institute of Humanities and Culture this afternoon (Sunday August 17) from 2 to 3:30, where we'll be holding a town hall meeting about Kunstler's "The Long Emergency." All for free. Skeptics welcome.