With the price of oil falling rapidly, does that mean we can quit worrying about peak oil.
I wish! But look at this chart, which puts the recent and very welcome fall in prices in context.
Oil is down. So much for peak oil?
Wednesday August 13, 2008
Categories: Peak oil
Filed Under: peak oil
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Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.
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If I wasn't renting, I'd even look into one of the corn cob stoves they were selling at our county fair.
Other Jim - I think the next 800,000 could come pretty fast because of the credit crunch that Pyrrho mentions. If we have a downturn, then less diesel is burned for shipping products via truck and train. Less flights are made, less road trips, etc. Look at oil demand in previous recessions and there is a marked drop.
In addition to China lowering subsidies, India is doing so as well. Also, lots of changes to other fuels are happening there. When I was in Mumbai in December it appeared that about half of the autorickshaws had been converted to compressed natural gas (along with quite a few other vehicles). A year earlier you rarely saw CNG powered vehicles.
When you also factor in the possible 2 million bpd of new production that may be coming online in the next 18 months or so, it's possible we could see a 1990's style oil crash and glut. $60 oil may not sound so crazy this time next year.
Random thoughts:
1. Residential oil consumption only accounts for ~800k bbl/day. Out of ~20E6 bbl/day. Every little bit helps, of course; but transportation oil consumption remains the key. Unless we reduce that significantly, we're not going to wean ourselves off oil anytime soon.
2. The potential for falling oil prices to undo conservation, etc., is precisely why I believe we need a "floor" on oil prices, as Astorian suggests. Jack oil prices up enough, and keep them there, and you increase the incentive to both conserve and deploy alternative energy sources.
Peak oil is not a fiction, but the current runup in prices was due to speculation.
"... the possible 2 million bpd of new production..."
and...
figures at the Oil Drum usually are in the 3 to 4 percent range for the yearly average DECLINE of existing oil fields...
yearly...
as in year after year after year...
so...
4 percent of the world average of 80+ million bpd is...
about a 3 million bpd LOSS of production...
yes...
Peak Oil...
coming soon to a theater near you...
prosperity faith hope love joy peace to all...
Forgive God...
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