Fred Kaplan, reflecting on George W. Bush's push for accepting Georgia into NATO, ponders the nuclear-tipped bullet we just dodged:
Bush pressed the other NATO powers to place Georgia's application for membership on the fast track. The Europeans rejected the idea, understanding the geo-strategic implications of pushing NATO's boundaries right up to Russia's border. If the Europeans had let Bush have his way, we would now be obligated by treaty to send troops in Georgia's defense. That is to say, we would now be in a shooting war with the Russians. Those who might oppose entering such a war would be accused of "weakening our credibility" and "destroying the unity of the Western alliance."
To be fair, refusing to defend a NATO country that had come under attack would weaken the credibility of the alliance. But of course it would be insane to get into a shooting war with Russia -- which still has nuclear weapons -- to defend Georgia. This is why Bush had no business leading the Georgians on with this kind of crazy talk. As Kaplan says, you feel like a "heartless bastard" for saying so, but the US has no compelling interest in putting its own soldiers on the line to defend Georgia. And for all the neocons who are screaming "Sudetenland!", Kaplan has the following to say:
Do you really believe that Russia's move against Georgia is not an assertion of control over "the near abroad" (as the Russians call their border regions), but rather the first step of a campaign to restore the Warsaw Pact in Eastern Europe and, from there, bring back the Cold War's Continental standoff? If so--if this really is the start of a new war of civilizations--why aren't you devoting every waking hour to pressing for the revival of military conscription, for a war surtax to triple the military budget, and--here's a twist--for getting out of Iraq in order to send a few divisions right away to fight in the larger battle? If not, what exactly are you proposing?
As repellent as I find the prospect of an Obama presidency, the idea of hotheaded John McCain sitting in the Oval Office now trying to figure out how to deal with a newly aggressive Russia makes me extremely nervous -- this, to the extent that a McCain administration, on national security and foreign policy, represents a third Bush term. The Bush years exemplify what Andrew Bacevich, in his forthcoming book "The Limits of Power," describes here:
Since the end of the Cold War, the tendency among civilians -- with President Bush a prime example -- has been to confuse strategy with ideology. The president's freedom agenda, which supposedly provided a blueprint for how to prosecute the global war on terror, expressed only grandiose aspirations without serious effort to assess the means required to achieve them.
Notice, though, Bacevich doesn't say this is merely a Republican problem. To what extent does Obama share an ideological view of national security and foreign policy, versus a realistic view? More precisely, given that most US civilians, per Bacevich, share this way of looking at America's role and relations in the world, to what extent can any candidate who hopes to be elected president do so on a Realist foreign policy platform?

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Hey, before we enter into mutual defense pacts with a country, how about we make sure they aren't apparently both in the midst of a civil and run by lunatics who think it's a good idea to shoot first at Russia soldiers?
That's exactly what prompted the French and the Germans to put the kybosh on having Georgia join NATO.
President Bush said, upon first meeting Putin, that he had 'seen Vladimir's heart'. ( He said the same thing about Harriet Miers. )
Let's hope he isn't planning to moonlight reading EKGs when he returns to Dallas next year.
Chris L - some thoughts:
1. Germany did declare war on us. In retrospect, that seems a pretty bad move on their part - it brought not merely US supplies, but also manpower & military might, into the "Allied" column; and eliminated the possibility that America, preoccupied with beating Japan, might pay European affairs less heed.
2. I doubt that US entry into the war was truly a lesser evil (for Germany) than continued tolerance of American naval provocations. Striking US shipping had already lost Germany one war. And the US could've reduced such provocations somewhat by continuing to ship via Iceland, rather than shipping to Britain directly.
3. British manpower losses would likely have been less without the western-front offensives enabled by US entry. And of course Russia still had plenty of manpower.
4. I'm not sure superweapons would've been decisive. The German nuclear program was nowhere close to completion in '45. Long-range bomber development only got its impetus from US entry into the war. Without nukes V-1 & V-2 were good for harassment, but not city-busting. And Germany didn't have a monopoly on jet aircraft (Gloster Meteor); or decent tanks (T-34 family).
All that being said...you may be right. IMHO, the question I posed above is sufficiently debatable that I think we did make the right choice intervening. Not for moral reasons, but rather simply to prevent Nazi Germany & Imperial Japan from dividing & dominating Eurasia between them...and eventually ganging up on us.
Mr. Dreher,
You miss a huge point: had Georgia been part of the US, then the Russian proxy zone of Southern Ossetia would not have attacked Goergia on August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6, and even on the 7th. Had it done so, we would have to the Russian to stop it.
And those people who think that Georgia is isolated from the rest of Nato need a map. Turkey is part of NATO.
But not to worry. Putin will play this game in Ukraine and the Baltic and all the Kremlin and Soviet bootlickers will apologize for him again.
No, there is a third way it can be interpreted, as 'AnotherBeliever' mentioned above. Russia is making a point about NATO expansion. Georgia gave them an opportunity to demonstrate their point, and they did.
Oh, TWADDLE.
This is nothing but an example of #2. Is Russia threatened with invasion by NATO? Hell know. You know it, I know it, Putin knows it. So why is NATO a threat? Only in that it is a roadblock to an expansionist Russia.
Rod, You really think that an imploding Russian population and economy means they're not a threat? That's exactly backward. When an amoral country needs resources and has a military, the most logical thing to do is TAKE THEM. War crises to divert his people's attention, and getting his hands on some kind of stranglehold position on resources and wealth... Sheesh, how could you think otherwise?
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