Have Dems set up Palin to "win" debate?
That's the contention of an LA Times blogger, who notes that the left's unfettered attacks on her both put her in the position of being a sympathetic underdog going into Thursday's debate, and dramatically lowered the bar for her success....
I was telling someone privately about a week or so ago that as long as she spells her name right at the debate, she will do fine. I'm not sure at this point how much this stage can improve her image. I don't think there is any downside at this point for the McCain campaign. If Biden can manage to keep his mouth shut, it will come out a draw and no one will care. I don't think this is a debate Biden can win. It would be like me playing one of the Williams's sisters in tennis: sure I might make a shot or two, but in no real sense are we competing. In fact, Serena is probably worse off for the effort.
"the left's initial vicious freak-out over Palin's selection" consisted of what, exactly?
Yeah, I know about the Kos diarist who did the "Trig is really Bristol's baby" diary. But anyone can become a Kos diarist in five minutes, and "the left" largely disowned that theory, thank you very much.
"The left's" initial response, as far as I can see, consisted largely of finding out who Sarah Palin was, and pointing out lots of gaping, blatant problems with her track record.
If you're going to claim that's not the case, then I think you need to back it up with cites, or link to where you've done so in the past.
Palin isn't going to do poorly during the debate. She does poorly when she's pushed to elaborate, and debates aren't set up in a way that force politicians to elaborate. One side runs at the mouth for 2-5 minutes, and then the other side runs at the mouth for 2-5 minutes. Then the moderator moves on to the next question.
During the Couric interview, Palin would do fine with her initial response. It was when Couric would push her that things would get silly- like being next to Russia counting as having foreign policy experience, her"good guy vs bad guy" explanation when pushed on Iran and Israel, or "I'll get back to ya" when asked for specific examples of McCain's record.
Thursday will be another draw. Republicans will breathe a sigh of relief and say that Palin won. Democrats will say that Biden won.
"The left" and "the right" both do the same thing when a candidate is announced--opposition research. Bills signed, legislation passed, boring stuff like that, as well as any ongoing problems with the candidate in his/her current office.
In the case of Sarah Palin, "the left" didn't "throw mud and sewage at her," the mud and sewage was already there, in the ongoing "troopergate" scandal, as well as disgruntled former state employees who were fired over not being loyal enough to her.
As for the debate, expectations are so low that she'll get points just for showing up, and Biden has to be extra nice to her, or he'll get called a "sexist." For a self-proclaimed "pitbull," Sarah Palin's awfully sensitive, so he'll have to watch his step.
Let's face it: if Palin can avoid speaking in tongues and soiling herself, she will have wildly exceeded expectations.
But 'exceeding expectations' and 'performing well' are not always the same thing. Palin needs a good performance here. As far as I can tell, simply being coherent is just not going to be enough right now...
And speaking of lowered expectations, Biden's reputation as a gaff machine is getting hugely exaggerated. Didn't anyone watch the primary debates? He actually is pretty good at this stuff.
Advantage: Biden
If Palin can avoid speaking in tongues and soiling herself it will be a miracle. And Biden will, without doubt, jam both feet so securely in his mouth that it will take a crowbar to extricate them.
This debate will be something impossible even to attempt to parody.
The public expectations bar for Palin is about an inch off the ground, now that she's become a laughing-stock, which would seem to give her a chance at a smashing comeback, especially against the arrogant Biden.
But the problem is, Palin has dug some pitfalls for herself. Most obvious example: The Bridge to Nowhere lie. Apparently the base doesn't care that she isn't telling the truth, but the revelation of this untruth has clearly hurt her candidacy. I don't see how she can simply repeat her "Thanks but no thanks" claim, especially knowing that Biden and his team will have had weeks to think of a strong comeback.
Palin also needs to sidestep some of her other mistakes, such as the inane idea that a person learns foreign policy by continental proximity. (As one wag said, Palin is the perfect person to fix our financial problems, because she lives near a bank.)
But Troopergate does offer her an opportunity to make that pivot. If she can admit to some oversteps, but remind listeners of the threat of her ex-brother-in-law, she can raise the family values banner, rebrand herself as a truth-teller, and implicitly blame her critics for all her problems.
Prediction: Palin will want to come out of this debate looking like the feisty victim, down but not out, just needing a helping hand from the voters. The election could turn on her success at this gambit.
I will be surprised if this debate actually takes place.
All expectations for Palin are to survive. And even if she does, she is still unqualified. Is this a person who you want to see as a VP?
Rod,
Thank you for being objective. Considering all that's at stake with domestic and foreign policy we need some sound voices on the right.
I didn't watch the Katy Couric interview until I saw the new SNL skit. The really creepy thing was that Tina Fey pretty much hit the CBS interview dead on, especially the ending in which Palin just started mixing random things.
When Clinton perjured himself, as a Democrat I supported impeachment. When Al Gore moved so far to the center in his campaign that I couldn't stand it I actively campaigned for Ralph Nader.
I actually feel that McCain has contempt for the American voters with this VP selection. What happens if McCain's health falters? Is Palin just a puppet; or will she really be running things? Either way it's gonna erode public confidence even further. This was a cynical choice.
I'm a big fan of your blog, book, etc. and have been reading you for a while. I guess I'm just wondering what benefit there is (to those of us who are crunchy cons) in trashing Palin so much here. I'm with you in the noted criticism, but it seems like you are just fueling the fire... full of negative comments and no answers for the question, "Now what?" I'm disappointed to hear so much of it from you.
"All expectations for Palin are to survive. And even is she does, she is still unqualified. Is this a person who you want to see as a VP?"
And Obama was decent, at worst, in the first Presidential debate. But HE is SILL unqualified. Is HE a person you want as PRESIDENT? You have no argument, here.
I believe Palin's experience is more than adequate for the VP role. Biden is no more than a used car salesman selling lip service but nothing more.
Mrs. Trice,
There is no correlation between Palin and Crunchy Cons. If she becomes vice president or, terror of terrors, president, she'll do nothing whatsoever to take the country in the direction a Crunchy Con prefers. In fact, it's much more likely she'll take in the opposite direction.
That is my fear -- Biden blowing a gimme at the debate.
I respect Biden and am glad he's on the ticket. But that dude needs some work on his rambling and idiotic mouth. I'm glad that the debate rules allow for shorter answers and no back-and-forth between candidates (a rule that the McCain camp asked for in order to protect Palin's image due to her lack of knowledge). In the end, it will benefit the Dems as much as the Repubs that the candidates keep things short and simple.
Much is being made of the "qualifications" (or lack of same) necessary for the presidency and vicepresidency. Obama, Palin and Biden all have the qualifications required by the Constitution, the same being a natural born citizen at least thirty-five years of age and a resident of the United States for fourteen years. McCain too meets the test if you consider being born in Panama to American parents as being "natural born". All other "qualifications" are merely one person's opinion.
With respect to being "qualified" in foreign affairs by taking a foreign junket and being briefed by someone using the same material another in the Pentagon could provide after a Metro ride, your standards are a bit low. Proximity yields knowledge only if one is curious and goes about developing his own data. That hardly describes any politican of any stripe these days.
The key question is who has the best mind and is more likely to use it to America's advantage. Kind of elitist, I suspect, but nevertheless the truth.
Regarding the most recent SNL skit on Palin: the text of Palin's remarks in the skit was the exact text of what she said in the real interview. Apparently, SNL's writers figured they just couldn't make it any more ridiculous.
Anyone who thinks Palin might do well in this debate is on drugs.
if the debate is set up right, Palin will survive it without any embarrasement. After all, as long as she can memorize the talking points and is asked the right questions, she'll be fine. But if she is asked to elaborate or if there is any give and take between her and Biden then she is doomed.
She has succeeded at all levels; from captain of the Wasilla basketball team where she won the state championship, to city counsel, to Mayor, to Governor. I doubt if she knew anything about being a team captain before she did it. She had no experience before becomming as counselwoman. She had no mayoral experience before she was mayor. And she surely did not have any experience handling statewide issues before being Governor. No one is that lucky. She makes her luck because she is a winner and a leader. I know leadership qualities when I see them. I am an active duty military officer with 20 years of service.
McCain too meets the test if you consider being born in Panama to American parents as being "natural born".
Technically he wasn't born in Panama, he was born in the "Panama Canal Zone", which was essentially a US territory at the time, or at least was considered US territory in diplomatic terms.
"...captain of the Wasilla basketball team where she won the state championship..."
You have to be joking.
Apparently, CBS has footage from the Palin/Couric interview that is even more damning than the incoherent nonsense that they aired. How is that possible? How anyone could still believe that she is a worthy candidate for vice president after seeing that should have their head examined. If CBS releases the footage (apparently they will), I shudder to think how much worse she performance could be...
Biden is not the most disciplined pol in the universe but he is operating in front of journalists 18 hours a day at this point. He is going to say a couple silly things. I'm a fairly bright individual, but if I spent 18 hours a day with journalists, who knows what idiocies would be captured on tape.
I'm old enough to remember elections before these debates ever existed. Are we going to be saddled with them forever? Does anyone beside the media really want them that much? Last week when it seemed for a few days that there would be no Friday night debate many people were bitterly disappointed?
Why? Because the gladiatorial games had been cancelled and there would be no chance to witness a gruesome death by words on a weekend evening? And always the hoping for a fearful gaff to use as an instrument for mocking a man or now a woman forever. The disappointment when there is no gaff measures the hope for one.
As to qualifications beyond the constitutional minimum: what a candidate really needs is a crystal ball that works. Who could have foretold 9/11 and all its ramifications? Who could have foretold Pearl Harbor or Sarajevo? So many of these "profound" policy questions asked candidates are based on hypotheticals. What will you do if A, B, or C compounded by X, Y, and Z happens within such and such a time?
None of us can know with certainty how we are going to act when put to the test. All we can know now is how we OUGHT to act when the challenge comes. Character is the bridge between knowing what we ought to do and then doing it. No amount of knowledge, intelligence, advice, or even experience can bridge that gap.
caroline wrote: "I'm old enough to remember elections before these debates ever existed."
You were born before the Lincoln/Douglas debates?
I admit, I keep hoping that the Couric interview was part of the learning process. I think she is qualified. I think she has never been in the national spotlight before, and she's having to learn a huge amount, in a short time, while on the road campaigning and dealing with being a public spectacle.
Maybe she was just nervous. Maybe she's going to get used to it all, learn the correct answers, and find her confidence. It could happen, really . . .
caroline wrote: "I'm old enough to remember elections before these debates ever existed."
You were born before the Lincoln/Douglas debates?
When Lincoln and Douglas debated, they were running against each other for the Senate from Illinois, not for the presidency.
Thank you David. You are a gentleman.
I don't know about Lincoln-Douglas.
But you would have to have been born before at least the Nixon-Kennedy debates, to get before Presidential debates were aired, which is the early 60's.
How long ago are you talking about, Caroline, when you talk about before these debates existed?
The earliest one mentioned by the Commission on Presidential debates was Dewey vs. Stassen, which was in 1948. (Primary level Debate).
As Dr. Andrew Sullivan wrote today: Biden's best strategy is simply to stay mum, and let Mrs. Malaprop self-destruct.
She was nervous....nervous!!!!???? You don't get time to be nervous if you are asked to be the VP. You don't get time to be holed up cramming about our country, the world, history, politics, the economy. You don't get to go to "debate camp".
You get to be ready. Ready to lead "if" the President is incapable of doing so.
She is not ready and she is a disgrace to all successful qualified woman that hold high positions and were looked over for her. It is an absolute shame. You want equality but in fact you only want to be treated the same as men if and when it serves you.
I think the LA Times has a point and I'm fairly disappointed in her. The bar really has dropped low on her, which is traditionally not what you want when you're the other side. Even if she does poorly she'll likely just stay at the level she is now.
Basically even if she does not win I think it could be difficult for her to lose. I mean unless she basically does say "I don't know" a dozen times or starts screaming in horror.
"She makes her luck because she is a winner and a leader. I know leadership qualities when I see them."
You're kidding, right?
I don't think there is anything MORE lacking in Ms. Palin than "leadership qualities". She has shown us that she has exactly none.
I would say that the most important leadership quality would be a commanding presence, an ability to inspire confidence, an ability to lead the country in the right direction.
Even in simple interviews, under pretty mild questioning, Palin is nervous, halting, confused, uninspiring, incoherent.
Can anyone, anyone, imagine Palin trying to calm the country in times of crisis?
Clearly the McCain campaign has concluded that Palin must be kept away from the press. Even after the first debate, Palin was NOWHERE to be seen. She cannot even meet the press! How will she ever deal with our adversaries? The idea that Palin is a pit bull is a lie. She is a wimp.
And now, she cannot even answer questions from Katie Couric without McCain at her side.
Not only is Plain clearly not a leader of any kind. She is a national joke.
Patrick: "She was nervous....nervous!!!!???? You don't get time to be nervous if you are asked to be the VP. You don't get time to be holed up cramming about our country, the world, history, politics, the economy. You don't get to go to 'debate camp'."
Patrick I'm sympathetic to this point. I guess I'd say that people would probably give her more slack on this angle if she'd have exhibited more Harry Truman-like humility upon her selection. If she'd said things like "You know, I need to study that more, but I'll get back to you" or "I'm learning from the best minds in the world about that right now" and "Well, I wasn't sure I was ready when John asked me, but I told him that I'd help however I can, and I promise to learn everything I need to learn to be effective." Instead, whenever a journalist asks about her preparedness, her answers have been a variation on "I didn't blink" or "Yes, I'm absolutely qualified and ready right now".
AMEN, Pacific Moderate!
Humility is so important in a leader! She is far too much like "W."
The US has a proclivity, of late, for choosing from among "vainly dumb" leaders, so it seems. It's those with tunnel vision stubbornness, the old-fashioned, unworldly, gun-totin,' "Joe Six-Pack" types who appear to generate considerable interest within the masses. OK, welcome Palin aboard, let rape victims, carry their offspring to term, even though victims of incest. Let her declare war against Russia, in a moment of paranoia, merely attributable to its geographical location. Being an outsider, looking in, the country appears increasingly doomed, under McCain/Palin. She'll be Grandpa McCain's lap dog, until, Heaven forbid, he should succumb to age and lose his marbles, as did Reagan. It seems, btw, he has begun to show signs, already. A third world country solidly in the offing, much to the jubilation of its enemies. What a profound shame!
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