Obama, a "dusky Dukakis"?

Like Spengler said a few weeks ago: Obama is long on brains and short on guts. Maybe we'll get lucky and he'll bring the wood to McCain in the debate this Friday.

So far I've seen Obama compared to Kerry, Carter, Mondale and Dukakis and Eugene McCarthy. Basically, to every Democratic loser in the book. He was also compared to JFK, favorably. So basically, that's nearly every Democrat over the last 40 years. So what else is new?

Obama is really in a bind intellectually and emotionally. He cannot propose any bold political or social initiatives because he needs every last vote he can get to put him over the top, and he has to keep his range of emotions narrow for fear that white Americans will respond negatively to an "angry black man".

At this point every pundit is striving to say something new, and in general failing to be convincing because, primarily, the tone of most political writing I see (including Hitchens) belies a sort of canabalistic / incestuous internal conversation. Meaning they're too busy (etc.) to actually interact with people outside their loop and get a feel for what's being said and felt 'out there'. Trust me when I say that McCain is not getting traction, and for every vote Palin secures, he loses one.

I said from day one that if McCain loses, the autopsy will say that the Palin pick was a brilliant jolt and the ultimate deal-breaker for reasons any analyst recognized early on...after screaming with glee and sobering up. And if Obama loses, yes the left will have many excuses and accusations. But my gut instint tells me that the polls are not reflective of a smoldering vengeance toward the GOP that is by now larger than life and SURE larger than the Democratic party or left wing extremists. No few conservative columnists are all but spitting---Rod being one.

Just relax and wait. It won't be pretty.

The US is in two stalemated wars---started by a Republican. Its economy is taking on water---on a Republican's watch. Its long-term economic prospects are downright terrible---and a Republican President signed a measure that will demonstrably aggravate that. Democrats should be preparing to scrape John McCain off the bottom of their shoes. Yet McCain is managing to give Barry "the Slick" Obama a real run for his money---and may pull out a win. Why ?

First, let's be honest: Obama's---say it with me, people----BLACK. This still means a great deal, on a subconscious level, to a lot of people. There is a known phenomenon in polling, to the effect that voters, out of not wanting to appear disrespectful or "racist", will overestimate their support for a black candidate. I see nothing to indicate that that phenomenon is not at work here. The 3-5 point Obama lead in the polls is probably really a 2-point McCain lead.

I'm going to say something very politically incorrect here: if Barry Obama were white, the only way he'd have been able to go to the Democratic convention would have by buying a ticket. Residual "white guilt" on the part of the more leftish members of the Democratic wing, as well as the media, is largely responsible for Obama being where he is.

But the question remains---why is THIS black candidate having such a relatively hard go of it ? Other black candidates have had easier times; Colin Powell almost got the GOP nomination handed to him on a silver platter a while back, if I recall properly.

Youth and inexperience, for one. Not even two calendar years in the Senate, no known major legislation to his name; and only a pair of non-government jobs as a "constitutional law" professor (and just where are his published articles ?) and a "community organizer". Neither of these are perceived, or even perceivable, as having much of a real-world orientation or providing much in the way of real life experience.

No military service: The military is the ultimate in "real world experience"; there's nothing so basic as the blood-and-guts struggle for survival that is combat. It gets to one on a very basic level, and provides a certain credibility, a certain sense of "having laid it all on the line" that resonates with voters. McCain has that, Obama never will.

A lack of ability to connect emotionally with voters. This is not necessarily a function of wealth; FDR was wealthy and still managed four terms. But there is a certain disconnect that can be traced to wealth. Consider George H.W. Bush's public surprise at that most common of devices, a supermarket price scanner. On a more local and esoteric level, Rick Lazio is often considered to have begun his process of losing to now-Senator Hillary Clinton when he did not eat a sausage sandwich at the New York State Fair. A modern American candidate needs to be able to demonstrate what used to be called "the common touch", and on the subconscious level. Barack Obama does not have this, as may be witnessed by his primary comments about the rural proletariat "clinging to their religion".

Excessive perceived intellectualism. Barry Obama is a great public speaker, probably the best political orator of his generation. When he does give a speech, however, he is easily perceived as looking down at his audience. His background as a professor and his lack of ability to speak well outside of a large venue reinforce the subconscious impression that he is what used to be called an "egghead". That label did not do well by Adlai Stevenson in 1952 or 1956, and it will certainly do Barry the Slick no end of mischief in 2008.

All other things being equal, I would expect McCain to win under such circumstances. Not that I expect anything other than four years of paralysis under his Administration, should he win. But that's all right. A divided government is often a paralyzed one, and a paralyzed central government is one that cannot do as much damages to the liberties of the American people as might otherwise be the case.

I'll take that one at a black market price right now.

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Irenaeus, I'm flattered. Thank you !

Any time you (not just Irenaeus, but any of you) are in the Cortland/Syracuse/Oswego NY area, let me know; I'll be more than happy to talk ears off over a beer (although blueberry or raspberry wine is also fine by me) and a Dinosaur Bar-B-Que rib platter.

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Kit Stolz @ 1:46 AM writes:

"Shorter Hitchens: Obama is not as effective as he should be.
Shorter Will: McCain is a dangerous hothead.

Draw your own conclusions."

All right: no matter who wins, we're in for 4 years of Great Value for Our Entertainment Dollar.

Anyone see where I put my popcorn ?

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Kit Stoltz, you said:

"Shorter Hitchens: Obama is not as effective as he should be.
Shorter Will: McCain is a dangerous hothead."

I agree, to a great extent. McCain's proposals about how to manage the greatest crisis for our economy since the Great Depression amount to attempted scapegoating (the proposal to fire the head of the SEC) and railing against "corruption" on Wall Street and in Washington.

The problem is, due to the lack of regulatory oversight, which can be traced back, primarily, to the best of my knowledge, to the massive deregulation beginning during the Reagan Revolution, the whole Banking and Finance system may be corrupt or simply built on sand, but it is hard to get to the bottom of things.

McCain, through his stated support for deregulation and his record, has been part of the problem for 26 years. That is why, in my opinion, he is not proposing solutions that would actually get to the heart of the problem. Those solutions would go against his own oft-expressed convictions.

Rufus Thomas @ 4:37 writes:

"It does my (extremely Southern) heart no end of good to know that folks not only eat BBQ in New York state, but *pulled pork* at that."

The Dinosaur is perhaps the most popular small restaurant in Central New York. I eat there regularly, and most days the lines are inordinate. You should see the place on weekend nights; it becomes a jazz club that attracts national talent.

"What is the sauce like?"

Which one ? The Dinosaur's sauces range from a mild sauce that even my two-year-old likes to an Habanero that will take the top of your head clean off.

Your servant,

Lord Karth