Crunchy Con

Spengler to Georgia, Ukraine: Drop dead

Thursday September 11, 2008

Categories: Decline and fall

Actually, the international affairs columnist was much more blunt:

Not everyone is going to make it. That should be America's mantra. America was settled by people who didn't think that Europe was going to make it, and decided that the better part of valor was to bail out and start something new. Georgia and Ukraine are not going to make it. They are past the point of no return. Nothing will save them. They do not like life well enough to perpetuate it. ***** them.

America's obsession with a happy ending for all - otherwise known as Wilsonian idealism - is the ultimate source of the problem.

Read the whole column. He argues, from demographic trends, that by mid-century, there will hardly be a Georgia or a Ukraine left to worry about. US foreign policy would be better served by leaders who understood the harsh realities of how population decline is going to shake up the geopolitical map over the course of this century.

I wonder where Spengler's presidential vote wil go?

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Comments
EricW
September 11, 2008 8:02 PM

FWIW, the book is The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity (Revised and Expanded Edition) by Philip Jenkins (Oxford University Press 2007):

"Projecting demographic changes forty or fifty years in the future seems like a risky venture, and perhaps this chapter should really be titled 'Fools rush in.' Yet the process of Christian expansion outside Europe and the West does seem inevitable, and the picture offered here is based solidly on current trends, religious and demographic. In this instance, the foolishness seems justified." (p. 93)

"Both Anglicanism and Roman Catholicism are global communions, so that declining loyalties in Europe should be more than compensated by gains elsewhere in the world, but that pattern will not hold true for all denominations. The Eastern Orthodox churches will suffer acutely from demographic changes, given that church's members are so heavily concentrated in declining Europe. Presently, the Orthodox Church worldwide claims about 220 million followers, almost all in countries of eastern and southeastern Europe that are likely to be losing population steadily over the next fifty years. Although post-communist Russia has experienced a substantial Orthodox revival, demographic trends mean that the long-term future of that church must be in doubt. Falling birth rates will ultimately be more destructive to Orthodox fortunes than Muslim or communist persecutions ever were. Taking an optimistic population projection, Orthodox believers will by 2050 have shrunk to less than 3 percent of the world's population [I mistakenly said world's CHRISTIAN population in my earlier post], pathetically smaller than the early twentieth-century figure. In the worst-case scenario, the total number of Orthodox believers in the world by 2050 might actually be less than the Christian population of a single nation such as Mexico or Brazil. (Barrett et al., World Christian Encyclopedia, 4.) (pp. 110-111)

JPL
September 11, 2008 9:43 PM

Watcher, your response was more civil than my post. Thanks for that, and my apologies. I get overwrought.

Simply put, I take you at your word. You repeatedly put forward the position that you will NEVER change, you will NEVER be silenced, that you CANNOT be restrain yourself in attacking liberal positions.

In my experience, people who will never change will never learn, since learning requires change. People who will never be silenced can never listen, which makes conversation impossible, allowing only for monologue. And people who cannot restrain themselves cannot compromise, or even deeply comprehend, the positions of others.

Your own statements indicate that you're not here to discuss anything...you're here to preach, to lecture, to rebut, to create diatribes. And I think blogs are for discussion.

Look, Rod and I are on the opposite sides of the political spectrum in many ways. And I certainly will post my positions here, and even argue for them. But I am also here to listen, and to learn.

I've had deep and important conversations with Erin Manning about abortion, and she has swung my position more closely to the pro-life position she takes, although I still have some doubts about the effectiveness of legislation to solve this problem.

Some of Rod's insights into Orthodoxy has made me crack some books on the topic, particularly those of Ware, as well as wander through the Philokalia, The Mountain of Silence, and some other works on the topic, which have proven meaningful to me.

I've even recently begun rethinking my support for Obama in this election, less on grounds that our values differ, but more on the ground that his values and mine BOTH differ so far from so many Americans, maybe we need someone closer to the mainstream to heal some wounds. I'm by far not convinced there yet, but I'm listening and thinking.

I never see anything that you post that convinces me you can change your mind on anything. You have the answers, and you're going to feed them all to us if you have to shove them down our throats.

This seems little different than your position on foreign policy. America needs to stand up to tyrants and dictators around the world, stop the Putins and the Ahmadinejad and all of their lot. You fiercely proclaim all this, as if you were Superman and would simply solve the problem with your biceps and heat vision.

Even our finest military minds recognize our military is overstretched, exhausted, and close to breaking. And we're only now seeing some positive results in Iraq. Afghanistan is a mess. Pakistan remains a serious problem. We've done next to nothing in the Sudan. Where are these troops going to come from? Who's going to fight these battles? Our economy is in terrible shape, and we've made foes of most of the oil producing nations that feed our national addiction? How will we pay for these military adventures? How will we fuel our tanks?

And who will support us in these efforts? Our allies are frankly tired of our crap, and our enemies smell the blood in the water. We've disgraced our reputation on human rights by Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, by extraordinary rendition and assassination squads, by "enhanced interrogation" and Halliburton kickbacks and no-bid contracts.

Russia? We'd have a hell of a time just fighting Iran nowadays, unless just leveling the entire place from the air suits your fancy.

And even is all this imaginary might were our's for the usage, what convinces you it would work? That we have the right? We kicked the hell out of Germany in WWI. The Treaty of Versailles created WWII and Hitler. We fought North Korea to a standstill. Today, they're a dangerous rogue nation. We bailed on our fight in Vietnam, and today they're a capitalistic powerhouse with a deeply satisfied populace. The outcomes of wars AREN'T predictable, win or lose. The Israelis have discovered the truth of that in their last fight with Hezbollah, and in the Gaza Strip. Even winning, you can lose. Even losing, you can win.

Many places don't even want the freedom you crow about, or at least not as you envision it. Many people in Iran want freedom, but it's freedom TO choose Islam, or headscarves, or a government grounded in Islam...not freedom FROM those things.

Even your post to me, more conciliatory though it is, carries the same problem. Daniel, Mary and their "utterly thoughtless diatribes", "spewing rhetorical nonsense"...all pre-judged. You're right, they're wrong, that's all. God said it, I believe it, That Settles It! No respect, no willingness to learn, no openness.

No one here is innocent when it comes to sometimes losing their temper, sometimes overreacting, sometimes engaging in personal destruction and ad hominem attacks. I'm guilty as charged, as are the others you mention.

But as far as I can see or read, 9/10ths of everything you post is simply absolutist claptrap, supported only by monstrously long and constant posting that simply overwhelms anyone else trying to talk, all filled with mean-spirited commentary, harsh judgment of anyone who disagrees with you, and nothing vaguely resembling balance, humility, or reflecting a belief that maybe you could learn something, however small, from your foes.

So yes, you and others like you, (many recent additions here since Rod decided "lock and load" was a Christian position to take with those who differ from him) seem to me to be ruining this board, which was once a place of reasonably civil dispute between relatively high-minded individuals.

I work in a downtown area. There is a mentally ill man there, deeply religious, who stands on a street corner each afternoon for hours, shouting at the top of his lungs and holding a Bible. He screams about Jesus, and Hell, and the End of Days. He's been there for years. People know to give him a wide berth, not because he's dangerous, but just because he's loud. I'm sure he sees himself as doing God's work, and he's absolutely convinced of the rightness of his position and the righteousness of his cause.

I doubt he's ever converted even so much as one person to the Christian faith. In fact, many people have said to me that it's people like him who prevent them from becoming Christians, since "that's how they are."

Most days, that seems to be you.

Watcher
September 11, 2008 11:33 PM

JPL, I have this conversation quite often online and it generally resolves about the same...

Here's the point where I ask you if you believe you are right. Do you?

If you said no, I'd be surprised. If you said yes, that would be good. I'd hate to think you don't think what you say you do. Oddly enough, so while you're absolutely certain that certain things you think are right, you seem completely convinced that I definitely should not.

I am highly tolerant of disagreement over things of judgement, or opinion. I am not tolerant of prejudice, dishonesty. And I'm not tolerant of "stupid".

And, as you note, there are some things which are not open to discussion, compromise, or question. My life, the sanctity of life which is what I derive my right to live from, my freedoms - worship, speech, self determination - and as someone once stated "American optimism". A misnomer, perhaps. But history is not open for revision. The American Optimism is an undeniable and unarguable proof that individuality and rugged individualism builds the freest, most prosperous, best environment for humanity. It is not an attitude, it an experience and an example.

Likewise, collectivism and socialism, and variants thereof are NOT up for discussion, or adoption or compromise. Sorry. They may seem good to you, but they violate a core principle of my character. I'm happy to discuss them with you, but please understand, I do NOT compromise on them and you cannot, even with a gun to my head, obtain my consent or agreement with them.

Basically, you find my personna here grating and annoying. Good. At least you still have a mind to reach. Please understand, I am rarely offended by the tirades of those who disagree against me. However, I have no tolerance whatsoever for people who display prejudice, unfairness, or dishonesty towards others, and am worse than harsh in my condemnation of such.

These comboxes are, after all, designed with the intent of NOT communicating deeply and carefully, but superficially. Pretenses that you can or want to communicate in depth seem superficial in the context of here. They are as most of us treat them... the chance to say what we wish. Your complaints about me or anyone else seeming shallow ring hollow to me. Not even Rod takes it all that serious - and its his blog.

JPL
September 12, 2008 12:00 AM

I believe what I say only in the sense that it's my best current thinking on the issues. It is certainly open to revision, learning, change and growth, based on my own development and the input of others.

It is clear that on a wide range of issues, your positions are certain and unchangeable.

Well, that about says it all then, Watcher.

You state: "These comboxes are, after all, designed with the intent of NOT communicating deeply and carefully, but superficially. Pretenses that you can or want to communicate in depth seem superficial in the context of here. They are as most of us treat them... the chance to say what we wish. "

There you go. I think that trying to communicate deeply and carefully should be the goal. Otherwise, as you agree, it's really nothing but superficiality and the opportunity to stroke your ego by saying whatever the hell you want. And that's what we call a soapbox.

Like the preacher on the corner, I'm not interested in people screaming on soapboxes. It's a shame. He has a good book to work from, in fact, literally THE Good Book. But he'll do next to nothing to change or improve anyone, or teach anyone, because he's more concerned with "saying what he wants".

Have fun. It's a free country. But you asked why I believe people like you are ruining this place, and I've explained it, and you've in large part agreed with my perceptions. You just think it's cool.

As far as I'm concerned, there goes the neighborhood.

Watcher
September 12, 2008 2:32 AM

Obviously, JPL, you choose to read what you've already decided into what I say. I expected nothing less.

Of course, that's what one gets for being honest here... Publicly judged and excoriated as a "crazy man on the corner".

You state: "These comboxes are, after all, designed with the intent of NOT communicating deeply and carefully, but superficially. Pretenses that you can or want to communicate in depth seem superficial in the context of here. They are as most of us treat them... the chance to say what we wish. "

There you go. I think that trying to communicate deeply and carefully should be the goal.

Did anyone say otherwise? I'm just observing that both the medium and the mechanics work against any kind of in depth communication, especially considering the censorship imposed by both the technology and the people charged with doing just that. EVERY post I have ever made that was dispassionate and carefully sought to communicate has been censored by one means or another - whether humanly deliberate, or technological gimmickry, I don't know. Nor care, really. But any pretense of this being adequate to the task is just kidding ourselves.


Otherwise, as you agree, it's really nothing but superficiality and the opportunity to stroke your ego by saying whatever the hell you want.

That is how it is designed, technologically and mechanically. Is it any surprise that it generally gets used that way?

And that's what we call a soapbox.

No, a blog, with primitive feedback capacity.

Like the preacher on the corner, I'm not interested in people screaming on soapboxes. It's a shame. He has a good book to work from, in fact, literally THE Good Book. But he'll do next to nothing to change or improve anyone, or teach anyone, because he's more concerned with "saying what he wants".

Do you think he does that from ego, hubris, personal disorder, or desperation? Or from something else?

Have fun. It's a free country. But you asked why I believe people like you are ruining this place, and I've explained it, and you've in large part agreed with my perceptions. You just think it's cool.

I do?

Please note (to the rest of the readers)... JPL's psychic abilities ARE limited and attempting to broadcast to the world what I think, but do not say, is an attempt at very unserious and dishonest communication.

I might have actually believed you were serious, until you said that. I didn't taunt you, manipulate you, dare you, or provoke you in that regard, you just blew it yourself. Nowhere here do I EVER presume to speak for anyone but myself. People who do, especially for someone who they do NOT know, is simply NOT SERIOUS.

So, if you want to be serious, then get serious.

Of course, since you posted the above and I posted this, I see a bunch of completely non-serious ad hominem posted under your name. Presumably you thought before you posted what you posted. And chose to do it anyway. Pardon me while I make the mental note that you're no more serious about communication than Daniel or Cosimano is, unless professing you do earns you rhetorical debating points, no?

As far as I'm concerned, there goes the neighborhood.

Insult away... It doesn't bother me any. It's just the scorecard I use to measure the subject...

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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