Swing states and Sarah Palin

You think Obama wishes now that he'd chosen Hillary Clinton?

yep

I don't think she helps in either state, particularly Pennsylvania. Why is there the presumption that everyone likes sincere evengelicals/prentecostals? I have nothing against either group, but they aren't well represented in either State you mention.

And let me add that you can't win in those states with anything less than Hillary in those states, even with the baggage of Bill, if you're a Democrat. Not this year, and maybe not in the next eight.

Well aren't you special, John?

Well, yes I am, thank you for noticing!

How manly of you to continue the smear campaigns, without necessarily appearing to do it yourself.
Posted by: fbc | September 3, 2008 11:55 PM

Oh, you would have heard about it sooner or later.

For starters Walker, I don't expect people in Ohio and Pennsylvania to pinning merit badges on her chest for not aborting her child. I think her hunting exploits will impress them for about 5 seconds. Ultimately I don't anticipate her to have much effect in either state. She is the number 2 after all. Pro-life libertarianism does not sell in either state, and if one were to pigeon hole her, that is where she would be placed.

"...besides drilling for oil (which really won't bring down gas prices)."

Of course not. Supply never affects prices. They're set by scary white men from Texas in a big boardroom somewhere.

"Enough with the division thing. Lucifer wants us to be divided. Jesus wants us to love and respect each other."

I agree. Let's all unite around the GOP ticket and end division.

"...besides drilling for oil (which really won't bring down gas prices)."

In reality, drilling for oil here in the US does not affect prices that much, and any drilling is years down the line. Even if the companies start the process on lands they already have leases on, the first drops of oil from that effort are 3-5 years down the road. Now if a new, previously unknown reserve of oil is discovered, you might well see a major drop in oil prices, and subsequently in gas prices. But just poking more holes in the ground does not change prices that much.

What does affect prices quickly is a drop in demand. Look at the recent decline in oil prices, all because of a real drop in demand for oil during a time when the demand normally increases. This is prompting a real panic among oil producing countries. A fast drop in oil prices will hurt them big time, especially now that they have so much of their loose cash invested in non-liquid assets and financial instruments.

Drilling is a bandaid. Real changes in gas prices come from decreasing demand or finding new deposits of oil, not pumping more of the oil we already know about.

Washington is a blue state but we are really split: liberal around the big cities of the west side, while over the mountains on the east side they are mostly conservative I have a feeling that the game may have changed just a bit. I'll be watching. We may be a "swing state" now.

Fingers crossed.

Ohio may be close. My perception is that Cincinnati usually goes Republican; Cleveland goes Democratic. Columbus proper (and the OSU community) goes Democratic, and its suburbs (especially northern) tend to go Republican.

My sense right now is that the evangelical vote may split between the two, but be weighted toward McCain. Like Rick Warren, they agree with some of Obama's positions and some of McCain's.

The evangelical vote has become somewhat spongey, with the increased attention to issues related to poverty and social justice. For example, Jim Wallis of Sojourners wsa here at Vineyard (attendance 7,000) for a conference in April. Vineyard is theologically orthodox, pro-life, racially integrated, and actively serves the local community: food pantry, legal and medical clinics, after-school tutoring and sports programs, school mentoring, etc. Rich Nathan, senior pastor, served as moderator of the forum on faith issues featuring Democratic candidates, back at the beginning of the primary season.

Before Palin, I would have seen a large part of the right portion of the evangelical vote potentially sitting on the fence and, perhaps, not voting. The media attacks on her will likely get some of them into the voting booth. She reminds them of their pro-life values. And the media re-reminds them.

Some people are going to feel torn between the two. We hold to a hope that transcends the divisions politics can bring. We need to respect the candidates on both sides.
* * * * *
I appreciate your coverage. Like many others, I could identify with candidates on both these tickets. It's an emotional time.

John E: I've got your back on this one. Yes, in principle I think that who a candidate for any office is sleeping with or has slept with is no one's business but their own (unless the squeeze is underage or getting government favors). I also think that this type of stuff is a big part of what has debased our political discourse over the last several cycles. If it were just a matter of a tabloid story, I'd say we should ignore it and actually talk about issues (what a concept!).

Having said that, I think we're all aware that Rod, relying on the selfsame National Enquirer (which as he pointed out, and with which I agree, is more accurate than people often think) beat the whole Edwards affair thing into the ground despite the fact that Edwards, at that time, was not even a candidate for dogcatcher.

Now, I'm OK with it if Rod says, "Gee, I guess I blew it on Edwards--that was a bad call, so we should stay off Palin." But if he's going to stand by the probing on Edwards, then I'm interested to hear what he thinks should be done here. Is not sauce for the gander sauce for the goose?

Thanks Turmarion, we'll see how it plays out.

Someone else pointed out in another thread that it was just a statement made by a 'political enemy' so there may not be as much to it as there was for the Edwards claim, but we'll see...

Jeff Sullivan
No, John et al., it won't be interesting at all. It wasn't interesting when it was John Edwards, and it won't be interesting when it's Sarah Palin. These issues and the attention paid to them only contribute to the circus that surrounds politics.

I'm sure at some point some poster on Daily Kos will mention this, which means that, of course, the entire left is smearing her and Rod can get people here riled up about that, too.

She will own those states, and their swing voters.

Well, maybe for a few seconds, before they realize, "Hey, wait a minute, she isn't the one who would be president."

MZ Forrest, how much time have you spent in Pennsylvania and Ohio (not counting Philadelphia and the suburbs?)

I've in Pennsylvania all my life, on both sides of the state, and I can assure you there are huge numbers of people who are sincere evangelicals/Pentecostals, who have a more than fleeting warm spot for those who express affection for hunting, and who are strongly pro-life. It's true the urbanized people in the very blue areas aren't much impressed by that stuff, but that's not the fulcrum of the swing anyway. The small-city and rural "salt of the earth" union democrat types are going to be very impressed by all those things, which is where the weight of the swing lies.

I know less about Ohio, but I don't recognize the portrait you paint of Pennsylvania swing voters AT ALL.

Pentamom,

I have had family in northern Ohio. My analysis is based more upon demographics. In both cases you have a large pool of ethnic Catholics and old-line Protestants. Yes there are evangelicals and pentecostals. They don't run either state.

More importantly, Palin isn't running to represent the people who say it didn't matter.

She's running on the ticket of the party who said it DID.

And no, she's not running for president. She's running for a job whose pretty much sole description is to be ready to BE president if something happens to the top of the ticket.

You think Obama wishes now that he'd chosen Hillary Clinton?

Do people honestly believe that women will vote for her just because she is a woman? Really? Do men think we are that stupid? How sad.

Karen Brown
And no, she's not running for president. She's running for a job whose pretty much sole description is to be ready to BE president if something happens to the top of the ticket.

The way I look at the VP depends on how willing I think the president would be to work with him or her, and in what fields, and how likely it is for the VP to become president.

I don't think McCain would listen to Palin at all. He basically hates evangelicals and the religious right, whether or not you people believe it. He thinks you're all crazy and annoying. So I'm not actually worried about any of her ideas for that reason. Meanwhile, she might actually keep him grounded on non-religious issues, because she actually isn't upper-class.

I am worried about her actually becoming president, which does not seem outside the realm of possibility.

This, really, is a problem with fact she didn't run for president, so we have absolutely no idea what her policy positions would be on anything. While she's under McCain, we can presume that she'd either be implementing his policies, or cut out from policy decisions, but we have no idea what she'd do on her own.

No, we can't ask her now...she'd surely get answers from McCain, just like Biden's answers now are Obama's...but we have his from before, if you see what I'm saying. I guess I'm saying that VP picks should have tried to run for president, or at least a national office, so we actually know what they think on issues independent of being within someone else's campaign.

And our knowledge of Palin is even worse than some generic governor, as Alaska's issues are so specific to Alaska it's hard to extrapolate anything. For example, there's no illegal immigration issue in Alaska. There are no major cities with societal problems. Half the state is national wildness areas, and half the inhabited state is unreachable except by airplane. (The capital is inaccessible by roads from Canada.)

That's not to denigrate Alaska in any way. It's just, all states have some unique situations and issues, but almost all of Alaska's are unique.

With Biden, OTOH, I think it unlikely he would become president. (During Obama's term, at least. It's likely he'd run after, and it's possible he'd win.)

However, I think it's likely that Obama would be willing to listen to him, that he would, in essence, be a cabinet member. In fact, Obama might pull a non-evil 'Cheney' and put him in charge of foreign policy, while Obama works domestic. I don't have a problem with that.

RJohnson, OF COURSE drilling doesn't increase supply immediately, but aren't we going to need hydrocarbons 5 years from now? Maybe you think the Lightworker will discover a magic alternative energy supply by then, or maybe you're anticipating the end of the world based on the fact that the ancient Mayan calendar ends in 2013, but the rest of us believe it is highly farookin' likely that we're going to need that supply 5 years from now.

Whatever the effect on female voters, Palin will unquestionably help the Republican ticket with male voters. A fine-looking mother of five who shoots caribou and was a sportscaster -- what's not to like, from the male perspective?

"Do people honestly believe that women will vote for her just because she is a woman?" LL

TR: I don't. What I do think is that women who are similar to her on issues might be more motivated to vote than they were before. I mean McCain married a divorced model, then dumped her when she got damaged in favor of an heiress. Although I think he really is repentant about that stuff, it probably hurt him with some conservative women. And the POW thing I think is slightly less interesting for women than men.

Hillary may have been more inspiring for Democratic women as a VP candidate, but so far they seem to line up with Obama quite well. He likely needed someone who'd reach out to moderates more, which Biden doesn't precisely do.

That said I still don't think it matters. Republicans are in a world of hurt and will most likely still lose. He could've gotten the ghost of Eisenhower on the ticket, as he appeals to independents, and his winning would still be a long shot.