The coming bad decade and the Wall Street cult
The sage investor Julian Robertson says we're going to have 10 to 15 years of a bad economy. The credit crisis turns out to be worse that anybody expected. Excerpt: "I don't mean to imply that this is going to...
I've nearly resigned myself to voting for McCain, primarily because I think an Obama administration will be economically devastating. I don't think McCain will fix anything, but Obama's radical redistributionism ("fairness", aka "soak the rich") is appalling. Add to that the likelihood of lousy supreme court picks, and I'm practically swayed.
In the local US congressional race, Cazayoux (incumbent D) has been pounding Cassidy (R) with negative TV ads, outspending him 10 to 1 (my guess). I'm voting Cassidy, too, because even though Cazayoux seems like a decent conservative Dem, I fear the pressure to conform to a Obama/Reid/Pelosi triumverate will overwhelm him.
I haven't made up my mind on the Kennedy v Landrieu US senate race. That looks like a no-win, as well.
The Democrats are highly culpable and complicit, but far less culpable than the Republicans. A major, if not the major, cause of the current crisis is the rabid Republic-led deregulation that enabled the financial markets to go insane, to the benefit of very few and the devastation of many. Phil "mental recession" Gramm himself - McCain's former official chief economic advisor, and now unofficial advisor - was at the epicenter of it all. From Wikipedia:
“Gramm was one of five co-sponsors of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. One provision of the bill was referred to as the "Enron loophole" because Gramm drafted it in cooperation with lobbyists for Enron Corporation. Critics blame the provision for permitting the Enron scandal to occur. At the time, Gramm's wife was on Enron's board of directors.”
And:
“Later, as lobbyist for Swiss bank UBS, Gramm pressured congress to ease its restrictions on predatory lending tactics by mortgage brokers. For his efforts, Gramm received $750,000 from UBS in during a one year period starting in 2007. Meanwhile, bad lending practices encouraged by Gramm's legislation and lobbying are widely seen as the root cause of the 2008 Mortgage Crisis in America.”
fyi, in 2005? the Democratic congress passed a bill to close the "Enron loophole," which Bush vetoed. Obama has pledged to sign it.
then we have our national debt, accrued almost entirely under Republican administrations. check out this chart, if you have the stomach for it:
http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm
My other favorite example is the Republicans' repeated failure to raise CAFE fuel economy standards, which would have given the auto manufacturers a needed kick in the tuchis. In 1995, the Republican congress made it illegal for the EPA even to *study* increasing CAFE.
I know that many people here despise filmmaker Michael Moore, but he didn't invent the segment of Fahrenheit 911 where arms manufacturers and other corporate reps were at a conference gleefully anticipated the spoils from Iraq contracts, which they probably knew at the time - even though we citizens didn't - would be bounteous, no-bid, and fast-tracked to Republican donors.
Plenty of Democratic politicans are culpable, but there is no equivalence here.
Respectfully,
Hillary
As most of you know, I don't stand with Baton Rouge Reader on my pick for prez, I do think that the point is pretty valid.
I fear we may be headed into another legislative storm here by over-compensating for the issues at hand. If you are able to take the Clinton admin's involvement in the current situation at face value, it was ultimately the policies of a neoconservative presidency and a sympathetic congress which stoked the flame of the current crisis. It seems like we are going to do the same thing again by electing a liberal democratic administration with an even MORE sympathetic congress. That is a dangerous scenario because its way too easy to fore-go the necessary deliberation, forbearance, and scrutiny in favor of political partisanship and bandwagon legislation. I'm afraid people will stop thinking for themselves, and listen blindly to what Obama's administration has to offer. How is that any better than what we have now? To twist his campaign words, it's "more of the same".
I whole-heartedly support an Obama presidency. I think he is an intelligent and fair man with the heart of the American people pulsing in his chest, and I truly hope has has the opportunity to prove the naysayers wrong and rise above the current turmoils. A sympathetic congress can help expedite that sort of progress, but we must exercise restraint when stacking the chips so heavily in his favour. We are at the cusp of electing a 60/40 majority in the senate. That is HUGE. That is way bigger than either of the candidacies in line now, and it more dangerous because McCain's candidacy is dwindling fast. We must do everything we can as informed constituents to ensure that congress acts in our best interest over the next few critical years.
as a side note, I've always felt this country runs best with a Democratic president to look after the social welfare of the people and a republican senate to exercise the necessary restraint to make such a president's lofty and ambitious projects economically feasible. I would, however like to see a much higher (read: any) representation by "third" or minority parties in both the house and senate. That would make the candidacy of the libertarian or other parties much more viable and bring legitimacy to their inclusion in the presidential debates - a move which I feel (*hope) is both necessary and inevitable.
but Obama's radical redistributionism ("fairness", aka "soak the rich") is appalling.
Why do you find Obama's "radical" redistributionism a bad thing but not the redistributionism that has been practiced by the Republicans and their corporate pals for the past couple of decades? Whether through corporate welfare, government regulation ("don't through me in that briar patch"), "free" markets that aren't, or just plain old cronyism, there has been a massive redistribution of wealth in this country toward the already rich. Now, I expect Obama to be just as much of a stooge of the corporations as McCain would be, or Bush has been, but would actually be pleasantly surprised if that turned out to not be the case.
Did I miss it? When did Big Government go away? One of the reasons so many conservatives dislike Bush is because of the enormous increase in government generally, entitlements particularly.
I hate to be so cynical, but I have about as much faith in the prognostications of 'sage investors' and economists as I have in weathermen: they've got a 50/50 record at best. Go back and look at the days of the tech bubble, or the crash of 87 and read all the dire pessimism of the time: sure they were right - for a few months or a year or two. But the economy - with proper management and regulation - came roaring back.
10-15 years of 'bad economy'? All of these 'sages' haven't even addressed root causes of the crisis yet - heck, they can't even agree on what they are! But they know what's going to happen in 10 YEARS?! Please. Just. Go. Away.
Did I miss it? When did Big Government go away? One of the reasons so many conservatives dislike Bush is because of the enormous increase in government generally, entitlements particularly.
Exactly - where has Brooks been? The only difference between Bush and the 'tax and spend' Democrats derided by Republicans is that he continued to spend, while cutting taxes.
A large segment of us Democrats opposed the DLC's Republican-Lite method to governing. The DLC was essentially liberal on social issues (Although Clinton himself would end up caving on half of them thanks to 'triangulation'.) but conservative on fiscal issues.
And I know there's recently been some confusion about what 'fiscal conservative' means. By 'conservative on fiscal issues', I meant he pushed 'less regulation' and 'free trade', to help the American stockholder at the detriment of the American worker and the American consumer.
I don't mean that he 'spent wildly while cutting taxes left and right' or 'shipped uncounted billions in cash to a war zone with no oversight on spending' or 'purchased banks and insurance companies with trillion dollar deals' or 'funded golden parachutes so the people that got us into this mess can waste our country's future on hookers and blow for the rest of their lives', which are, I believe, the New Fiscal Conservatism.
Larry, you're assuming facts not in evidence. You have no idea what I think about the last so many years of Republican rule.
Here's the answer: it's been decadent and corrupt. I have no patience for what Rod described as "a turbocapitalist ideology in which Wall Street could do no wrong." And the Democrats haven't done any better with attempting social engineering by encouraging sub-prime lending.
FWIW, I've never voted for a Republican presidential candidate in my life. I voted third party in 2000 and followed Alasdair MacIntyre's example by rejecting the ridiculous alternative of Bush or Gore in 2004.
But I think that Senator Obama's stated plans will do tremendous damage. And adding to that an unfettered Democratic congress and senate makes an especialy toxic combination. The bizarre imprudence of it all has created an opportunity for agreement between National Review and the New York Times on the folly of the plan. That doesn't happen very often, if ever.
And I'm still reeling from Senator Biden's statement in the last debate about what spending plans an Obama administration may not be able to afford, given the current economic downturn: "we may have to slow down our plan to double foreign aid."
Ponder that.
Doubling foreign aide would have a trivial impact on the budget.
I wasn't assuming anything, I was just wondering about the inconsistency of deploring one form of redistributionism versus an apparent, and still apparent, at least acquiescence to another. I am not really a socialist, but I would prefer socialism for everybody rather than just socialism for the rich, as we have now.
The Clinton team told her to shut up and go away
To be fair, so did the Republican Congress.
Partisans are stupid, and make their stupidity abundantly clear at every juncture.
The two "parties" are just different sides of the same coin, both sides bought and paid for. You dummies who finger point are tedious beyond belief. To reach the cliff of economic ruin it took fierce energy from both of the dumb parties, dining with lobbyists, taking bribes, ignoring constituencies.
Most of them, from both parties, should be shot, along with most of Wall St.
They've raped and pillaged an entire COUNTRY. They've done an equity extraction and taken the plunder to China, India, etc., leaving our economy and our workers in the dust.
Now as taxpayers, we have to pay for their "losses." What a sick joke! They make trillions from the housing bubble/derivatives, and walk away now that the easy money is gone. People should be rioting.
I am seriously thinking of leaving this country...
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