Is Pakistan also "victim" of terror?
It's becoming ever more apparent that the Mumbai attacks originated in Pakistan. But what does that mean, ultimately? Did the Pakistani state aid and abet the creation and sustenance of the group or groups behind this attack? Almost certainly yes,...
Complicated isnt it? Resolving Afghanistan means dealing with Pakistan which means dealing with India. In theory, Pakistan and India are friendly/allies. Somehow we thought we were just going to invade Iraq and turn them into a Western style democracy. Changing human nature just isnt that easy. We took off our eyes on the real trouble spot and went after a guy who was not a threat to us. Who was not a religious zealot, just a thug. We let the radicals retrench in Pakistan.
The takfiris are a problem for those who wish to have a valid government in Pakistan. The ISI has used them for their own political ends. Heck, we used some of the same people against the Soviets. One hope in the COIN world, is that resolution of issues between India and Pakistan would make the FATA radicals superfluous for the ISI. That would let the army hunt them down, instead of massing on the border against India.
What should we do? My general sense from the counter terrorism folks, is that we should be treating these as criminal groups. Declaring a war on terror and the kind of broad actions that implies, is not likely to succeed. The issue is not lack of will to hunt down and kill terrorists, rather it is finding them. Broad military actions also tend to harm civilians, which makes for more recruits (go read up on Pashtun culture). We also need better information ops. If every terror attack results in every newspaper columnist in the U.S. claiming that all Muslims are evil killers, we are losing. That is just what the terrorists want.
Steve
Note that the Mumbai attacks came days after the new president of Pakistan, Zardari, said "I do not feel threatened by India and India should not feel threatened from us,...today we have a parliament which is already pre-agreed upon a friendly relationship with India....in spite of our disputes, we have a great future together.”
Seems that there are people who wish to take the Palestinian approach to getting their way: i.e. attacking India in hopes of sparking a reaction which makes rapprochement and progress impossible.
I have a former co-worker who is from Pakistan. One thing he told me is that Pakistan has never had control over the tribal areas. The other thing he said is that the military is the real center of power, not the civilian government.
So it is entirely possible that some element of the military wants tensions with India to justify the need for the military.
I'm an Indian - and I think Steve is basically right. The democratic government of Pakistan has no control over it's ISI and military units - those units are essentially terrorist cells.
It is extremely fortituous that in a failed government with nuclear weapons - the nuclear codes haven't reached the terrorist cells yet.
The scary alternative is that the terrorists have them - but even they fear taking that route for now. What'll happen when they get desperate?
I shudder at the possibility.
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Pakistan's nukes aren't likely to be shared with terrorists because Pakistan is operated like an organized crime syndicate. Imagine if John Gotti ran the United States Army and you'd have a rough equivalent for the situation in not only Pakistan, but much of our world.
The globe is chock full of thugocracies, from Russia to Zimbabwe, from Pakistan to Mauritania. Their leaders lie to friend and foe alike, not even trusting their closest advisors. Loyalty is valued over competence, and the loyalty that counts is a one-way street.
My real worry re: loose nukes is not that someone officially in control of them will give one away to a terrorist that he does not trust, but that someone down the food chain could be bought off (or simply incompetent) and so one gets stolen.
I'm an Indian, now long-settled in the U.S. Surely Pakistan or specifically the "average" Pakistani citizen is a victim of terrorism as well. Hundreds of them, including Pakistani Muslims, Christians, and Hindus, have lost their lives and limbs to violence incited by Muslim terrorists. But I have little sympathy for recent Pakistani governments or their security agency, whose complicity in harboring terrorists and encouraging terrorism in Kashmir is well-acknowledged. So, while I'm willing to give Zardari's goverment the benefit of the doubt, I understand how other Indians whose memories are longer than mine may not be willing to do the same. They've learned the hard way that while Pakistan has often cried sheep, it has more often acted as wolf.
At the same time, I hope my fellow Indians hold their own government to task over the events in Mumbai. My parents left India when they could not longer tolerate the corruption of the Indian political system, manifest at every level of government. The bravery of the Indian commandoes and police notwithstanding, it is clear that India was woefully unprepared for a long-predicted attack on her largest city. There is no one to blame but the fat cats in India's municipal, state, and national leadership who sat idly by while attack after attack weakened the country and emboldened the terrorists. Finally, at some point, the influence of Hindu extremists on this needs to be examined. The violence they've inflicted upon Christians and Muslims has been largely ignored by many of the same Indian politicians and public who are now justly clamoring for action. It may not have reached the same scope, but until India recognizes terrorism in all it its forms, she can do little to fight against it.
One of the things that really struck me when following the events surrounding the last Pakistani election is the extent to which the military is the true controller of that country. When they decide to interfere, they interfere. They let the populace run a civilian government at times, because the natives would get restless otherwise - but it seems they always "step in" because the government is "corrupt". So it wouldn't surprise me if the military, for reasons entirely their own, decided to ratchet up tensions, and there's little the civilian government can do about it. It may be possible that they don't even know what the military is up to.
The last time there was an attack like this (on the Indian Parliament, no less in 2002), India very nearly went to war. US Army war game scenarios of an Indian invasion of Pakistan headed towards Islamabad ALL (yep. All!) show a collapse of Pakistani defenses on or about the third day of conflict as Indian armored units push across the international boundary. Our own war gamers go for nuclear release by the fourth day, if not sooner, and proceed to demolish much of India, followed by a cataclysmic response.
I wonder how things will turn out this time...
what a good start of an article >. the information fed to the media is NOT solid but simply heresay and imagination of various writers. how you came to conculusion when indian govt has not issued a final inquiry report. surely you are much more advanced than indian govt. STEVE COLL paints is >.
What an editorial censorship by deleting the quoted phrases from my earlier post of 2:05am. what do you name it?
The Pakistani government must excise these elements from their political class and society - and sacrifice their border security and sovereignty to allow others to assist them - while appearing NOT to do so, as much of their populace is either sympathetic to the terrorists or at least deeply conflicted.
Although we hear most about Islamist attacks on Western targets, the primary victims of Islamism are Muslims. Sometimes the attacks are big--car bombs. Sometimes, they involve acid attacks on women. Sometimes they involve sexual assault. Sometimes it's just the day-to-day fear the Islamists instill in people (especially Muslim girls and women) who don't tow their line.
All too often, governments are not powerful enough to deal with Islamists. And in 2003, the US toppled one of the few governments with the power to keep the Islamists more-or-less in check (Let's hope that works out).
Simply demanding the weak Pakistan government take control of the situation is silly and pointless.
Hmm... Yes, bribery/incompetence at the lowest level is definitely a problem.
But, honestly with the knowledge of nukes floating about - I think it is only a matter of time before terrorists gain access to one.
Anyhow, on a lighter note, I just realised that this article is far too liberal for a self-professed "conservative" to write about.
:)
Progressive Revival has an excellent post on the complicated issue of Pakistani-Indian relations, and specifically the Hindu-Muslim-Christian conflicts over the years.
blog.beliefnet.com/progressiverevival/2008/11/terrorist-attack-on-mumbai-and.html
Simplistic answers will not work in this instance, and anything less than a full understanding of the entire picture only risks further inflammation of the already tragic situation there.
Arriving at a way to deal with the on-going (since 1949) situation in Kashmir would also be a helpful way to ease tensions. The problem(s): Kashmir is India's blind spot when it comes to their position as a democracy; and Pakistan has no particular need to work toward anything but a maximalist solution, as it serves as a safety valve to redirect passion and anger that might otherwise be aimed at the ruling government.
26/11 was the day when we heard that our Metro City Mumbai attacked by the terrorists. Even nobody believes that why they attacked on TAJ HOTEL. I think we have to think that what are the reason behind all the attacks and eventually the term comes to our mind is “PAKISTAN”.
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