Roubini: China in danger of falling apart
Tuesday November 4, 2008
Ultrabear economist Nouriel Roubini, who foresaw the current crisis, warns of signs that China is in danger of falling apart economically. You have to register (free) with his site to get the whole column. Here's an excerpt: [T]he risk of...
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About Crunchy Con
Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.
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Read Gordon Chang....."The Coming Collapse of China" he predicted no later than 2010. I thought he might be 5 years too early but his prediction still covers the point spread!
I'll say the same thing I said last time you posted something quoting Roubini: does he give any numbers to back up what he's saying? Or does he just make predictions?
"6% hard landing" may be the funniest thing I read today. And today promises to be a day chock-full of corkers.
Due to a large population migrating from farms to urban areas, plus young people entering the workforce, 6% growth means unemployment will rise sharply in China.
Roubini's economic models are wrong, however. The fact that he got the crash right isn't that impressive, plenty of people predicted it. Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Frank Shostak, and plenty of people at Mises.org are much better sources of information.
My younger brother has always been suspicious of China, mostly from a political perspective. He figures that their system of government can easily become unstable, given the right circumstances. Should something like this happen, I could see the government possibly destabilizing.
Nobody better gloat about this. Any PRC hard-landing means they stop buying our T-bills, and hoo boy, are we in for it then.
well mdsf might be concerned about the non modelling nature of roubini's economics but when sports pundits decide with reasonable outcome for a sports game they also don't seem to apply too much in way of way of modelling yet the gambling organisations still seem to function.
Msdf, I'd be interested in seeing some formulae for predicting the economic effects of an instantaneous loss of a job on part of the population. Seems like this might be having an effect at the moment. Maybe it just easier to look at interest rates.
Even so, who would reckon that steady state modelling works too well with unsteady state systems especially when no one even understands the steady state condition too well.
We need a visit by a relative of Maynard Keynes with some expertise in dynamics, having majored in the effects of ignorance on the population of analysts.
Thanks, Bernard King
So is Roubini still "predicting" China is falling apart? (as of 7/8/09). The reality hit Roubini and just showed that Roubini's nothing more than a broken clock - correct twice a day.
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