The march of conservative folly
In her great popular work "The March of Folly," the late historian Barbara Tuchman wrote about the habits of mind of six Renaissance popes that helped provoke the Reformation. Note the part I've highlighted below: Illusion of permanence, of the...
Instead of all this shirt-rending and finger-pointing, why not come up with a manifesto? I mean, we get it, already. "We" f'd up. So what's the way forward, in solid, measurable terms?
Want a glimpse of your Republican future? Kevin Drum is pretty close.
"The business community, however, is both more practical and more ruthless than the activist groups. Richer, too, and at some point they're going to conclude that Something Must Be Done. They don't want Dems writing new regulations and taking away their offshore tax shelters and making unions more powerful, and if the activist groups are in the way of getting Republicans back in power — well, they're just going to have to be dealt with. If that means backing more moderate Republicans with huge fistfuls of cash, then that's what they'll do. If it means more direct threats, that's fine too. And if James Dobson and Grover Norquist get caught in the crossfire, that's unfortunate, but you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. It's nothing personal, guys."
I'm not at all convinced that this is limited to Republicans. Even fewer people call themselves Democrats than Republicans. And while President Obama may be able to perform well enough to put a pause on the ongoing decline of the Democratic Party, once an unusually dynamic leader covering the holes and patches of the party's ideology is gone, it will be clear that both parties are suffering the same malaise of folly. It's not a Republican thing; with few exceptions, all of our governing elites are oblivious, short sighted, selfish and convinced that power will remain theirs as long as they can come up with decent election strategies (ie power will remain theirs regardless of how they actually govern.)
"What's going to cause the break?"
The realization that 2010 is not going to magically transform into 1994 Part II just because movement conservative leaders think it is a neat historical parallel.
Failing that, President Obama cruising to victory in 2012 might do the trick.
Failing that, it will be the part of the GOP coalition that has worked the hardest and received the least (social conservatives) in the conservative vinyards over the last 30-40 years sitting on it's hands, or veering off into a full fledged European style Christian Democratic party/movement. The tension inherent in being Christian and pro-corporate/economically libertarian and pro-aggressive warfare will simply by too powerful to paper over any longer. Young evangelicals and Catholics I know are as up in arms over torture and poverty, education and the environment as they are over abortion and gay marriage. A Pro-torture/family values, free market/socialize the banks, aggressive war/pro-life, small town values/corporate party is a ridiculous creature, neither fish now fowl, and deserves to be taken out behind the barn and shot.
"What's going to cause the break?"
Right-wing crybabies
Filled Brent's Hindenburge
When the votes binge
The Limbaugh will purge
When voters light
Bonfires to their vanity
Their every blimp blaze
Oh, the Hume-Hannity!
Mont D. Law,
Drum is showing too much faith in business interests' power, and he's underestimating the religious interests' appeal. We've seen overfunded middle-of-the-road candidates bite the bullet time after time, because you need the foot soldiers to show up and campaign. They need to be volunteers and true believers. Without them, the campaigns are hollow and more often than not fail.
"Want a glimpse of your Republican future? Kevin Drum is pretty close.
"The business community, however, is both more practical and more ruthless than the activist groups."
Yeah--but the problem is that having a purely "pro-business" agenda is not going to win anybody elections, no matter if they have more money than God.
The business community, when it gets its act back together, as it assuredly will, can provide people with goodies, things they want. God can provide turnips in the mud hut. People will go with business.
Given the choice between prosperity and God, people have always chosen prosperity.
"me" above has some good points. Both the Dems and the GOP have the same problem. People want something done to make their lives and country better. Obama's message was that all the partisan bickering wasn't going to fix anything and people bought that. No one cares about the liberal or conservative agendas except the small liberal and conservative bases.
Your last two posts, Rod, have people talking about achieving power again. That's what I've also seen in the news. Discussion of a program of what to do when power is achieved? Not so much. Rod has been saying lately that both abortion and gay marriage are not the dominant issues they once were. Are those priorities? Our educational systems in big cities are not educating our kids for the tech jobs that are the future. Our healthcare system is costly, inefficient and doesn't cover everyone. We're dependent on foreign oil and our manufacturing jobs are disappearing to be replaced by what? What are the conservative priorities if these are not good enough?
60+% of the GOP thinks Palin, as she is and not as she might be, is super. Are you kidding? This is the time for serious people who want to take a hard look at our country's needs and possible solutions. From Tuchman, "Their view of the interests of the institution they were appointed to govern was so short-sighted as to amount almost to perversity." Short-sightedness might include trying to get back in power before you can define what the problems and solutions are. If all that can be offered is the same old tired prescriptions with no consideration what should be done and how to do it, don't bother. Country first, indeed.
Given the choice between prosperity and God, people have always chosen prosperity.
As a negative motivator, I agree. But nobody will go to the wall for the Chamber of Commerce. As Machiavelli noted, mercenaries are the worst soldiers.
I think Obama is the wrong choice, but everything is in God's hands now, so all we can do is pray that he leads our country the way God wants him to. I came across a really funny website, ObamaSoundoff.com, that has a big soundboard full of gaffes and sound bites from Barack Obama. It provided me with a much needed laugh after the seriousness of our country and economy.
Derek Copold said:
....."True believers"....
believers in what? Isn't that the problem?
I suspect that the only thing that will reform the Republican party is the success of the Democrats. As long as the powers-that-be within the Republican party hold out hope of being able to present themselves as "at least were not liberal Democrats" they won't change. If the Democrats pick up more Congressional seats in 2010, re-elect Obama in 2012, and look to make even more gains in 2014 and 2015, then there might be some change in the Republican party. But even then I'm not sure. It might be best for the real conservatives to start their own party and displace the Republicans, as the Republicans displaced the Whigs.
I like Scott's post--a tribute to "Subterranean Homesick Blues", I take it? :)
Thanks, Turmarion, and for discerning an unintended Dylan figure in my lyrical carpet, though I was conscious more of bough than of Bob breaks - my model, after Rod's quoted question ["What's going to cause the break?"] was actually "Rock-a-Bye Baby", after a recent post at my home blog using the line "When the Limbaugh breaks/The radio will fall"...
The coalition that was the Republican party will not be easily rebuilt. Fiscal conservatives have grown weary of being saddled with the blame for soaring deficits and excessive spending. Social conservatives are beginning to question the GOP's commitment to their core issues, and some are even beginning to expand their interests to other issues not easily embraced by the current GOP platform (environment, poverty, and justice, for example). The libertarian wing of the party tires of those seeking to regulate private conduct.
Couple this with the rampant anti-intellectualism that permeates the party, driving from its ranks those visionaries and philosophers needed for genuine reform, and you have the recipe for long term decline. Yet I do not believe the disparate elements coming from this decline will have enough critical mass on their own to form a third party. There will have to be some sort of coalition built once again. But I believe that this time there will be less trust between the factions...if they can come together at all.
The Republicans’ fate is sealed by the changing demographics in this country. Immigrants are increasingly from third-world and non-white countries.
Look at Asians and Latinos, who voted in very similar percentages for Obama. What explains this? Certainly not IQ level or business aptitude, which is considerably different between groups. It’s the eternal “us against them” mentality of non-white groups, even highly intelligent and prosperous groups.
Republicans should adjust to being permanently in the minority, a status that they helped bring about.
believers in what? Isn't that the problem?
That's exactly right. But money alone won't do it.
"A Pro-torture/family values, free market/socialize the banks, aggressive war/pro-life, small town values/corporate party is a ridiculous creature, neither fish now fowl, and deserves to be taken out behind the barn and shot."
Amen, Adam01. Problem is, I doubt if it would make a very good gumbo.
My Evangelical family had a discussion recently in which we decided that a pro-life, pro-family, moderate economic party would probably capture all the votes of people in our circles of friends. If anyone really thinks that "Given the choice between prosperity and God, people have always chosen prosperity," they should spend a little time with people who have never been wealthy, wouldn't really care to be, and actually believe that God will supply their basic needs.
Conservatives can't lose. They've created a politics of sabotage that makes them unbeatable in the long run. Why?
1. By digging us into hole of debt, they have ensured that Obama will fail. Then they'll get in in 2012 by not being Obama, cut some taxes to start a new hole of debt, then when Democrats come back in in 2020 they'll be in an even bigger fiscal pickle.
2. By starting wars, they ensure more terrorist attacks, thus making Dems look weak and enabling them to get back in power. Once they win they are in no-lose situation: if terrorists attack, we need Mr. Big Tough Reactionary to protect us. If they don't, they claim, "President Big Tough Reactionary kept us safe."
Will they win every election? No. But through diligent sabotage of the nation's fiscal and foreign policy, they ensure that they win more elections than they lose.
And even when they lose, they get 46% of the vote and a whole bunch of Congressman and Senators no matter how badly they mess up.
Because no matter what they do, their media (especially the talk shows, the Fox News, and the pulpit) control so many minds that almost half the people can find a way to blame "liberals" for all their problems.
Just to qualify: usually their sabotage is inadvertent (at least on foreign policy)- but it still helps them politically in the long run.
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