"What's a Depression, daddy?"

Two poignant and consistent Soviet views on the subject,

one from 1944:

http://www.archive.org/details/Russian_animation_The_Stolen_Sun.

and one from 2007:

http://www.vimeo.com/1104328

Good God! The reason why people aren't getting their guns and stocking up on canned goods is because it isn't necessary. We're going to be going through a steep recession for a year or two and it would behoove everyone to pay off their debt and bluk up their saving, but we aren't going to be standing in bread lines. People will even be able to keep their Internet and cable packages!! It'll be similar to the 1970s, not the 1930s. There are safeguards in place to make sure that the 1930s doesn't happen.

Fear-mongering concerning an economic situation that does not exist makes no sense. People should continue to live their lives, talk about things that they enjoy (like sports and movies), and stop panicking about the state of the 401Ks that many of these nervous nellies cannot even tap into for 20 or so years.

I would agree that people won't be standing in bread lines like the Depression. But I also think we will be looking at soaring inflation soon. You can't keep printing money and expect that the surplus won't drive up prices as dollar value falls. So from purely that point of view it would be wise to do as Wall Street says and buy low while you can, even food. Costs will go up, unemployment will go up, salaries WON'T go up. So stocking up, paying down debt, anything to help ease the impact of a recession, is not being stupid. And incidently, buying some stocks now will pay big rewards later! Recessions always end.

I would agree that people won't be standing in bread lines like the Depression. But I also think we will be looking at soaring inflation soon. You can't keep printing money and expect that the surplus won't drive up prices as dollar value falls. So from purely that point of view it would be wise to do as Wall Street says and buy low while you can, even food. Costs will go up, unemployment will go up, salaries WON'T go up. So stocking up, paying down debt, anything to help ease the impact of a recession, is not being stupid. And incidently, buying some stocks now will pay big rewards later! Recessions always end.

Illinidiva, John, Shelley ...

How can you be so certain we're going to have a mild recession? Would you be so kind as to provide an argument?

Starting a food pantry for the community is a good idea no matter how one feels about a looming "depression." Feeding the hungry is good for the soul.

Pyrrho,

I definitely do not think that the current recession will be a mild one (like 2000). I think that it will be more like the 1970s without the stagflation, but I also think that all the hyperbole about the next Great Depression is ridiculous and makes everyone anxious without cause. Until I see actual evidence of breadlines, food shortages, and Okies, I reserve the right to be skeptical.

I've missed most of the "the end is near" posts on this blog because I got tired of the hysteria but I do recall reading:

1) the borders would be closed
2) the election would be cancelled
3) the DOW would be 7,000
4) there would be riots in the streets

I wonder if the people who "predicted" these events have realized how far off they were or if they've just ignored reality and moved on to predicting tomorrow's catastrophe.

Will Harrington,

We had a few bad hurricanes around the time of financial crash and aside from sporatic gas shortages in TN and NC related directly to the hurricane it didn't tank the economy into a Depression. The only thing that really could hurt is a direct hit by AQ on the U.S. homeland. I think that considering the state of the terrorist organization and the improved U.S. security I think that this is highly unlikely.

As for your other points,

A. It makes as much sense for gazillions of small farms to grow corn, soy beans, and other commodities as it makes sense to have $20 tshirts hand-sewn by small independent factories in New England. Larger agricultural producers can leverage greater efficiencies and lower costs which is a good thing for consumers.

B. This doesn't mean that small farms will cease to exist. Smaller farmers have already begun to shift to new market strategies (organic farming is a big hit).

C. There is more people in the U.S. who are "landholders," not less. More people own their own homes than did in the 1960s and 1970s; in fact, many are overextended and probably should never have been loaned money in the first place.

D. There is going to be some belt-tightening, and I'd hate to lose my job. However, the majority of Americans will only be slightly affected by it. Most Americans know this, which is why they're going out their business; however, it doesn't improve anyone's mood for the media to continue crying wolf.

Okay, so it went through last time. Let me try this again.

I was listening yesterday to a 'This American Life' rebroadcast of a Studs Terkel interview and thought Oh! I want to hear more! and Oh! such sorrow at the death of a man who knew how to listen.

The woman interviewed had been a child during the Depression, and she described how she and her sister would move from the soup line to the bread line to the line for milk, every day, to bring food home to their family. She said that the rich might have looked down on the poor, but those standing in line neither felt shame nor condemned one another. Solidarity, I believe, is the term.

So, Mr. Dreher, how about an elegy for Mr. Terkel?

godisaheretic -

You may have missed the link I posted a few days back:

---------
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/09/miniature-nuclear-reactors-los-alamos

Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes
£13m shed-size reactors will be delivered by lorry

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb.

-------------

with electricity generated by a relatively low cost plant such as these, processed oil shale and converted coal converted to oil becomes realistic at (probably) at least $100/barrel and maybe less.

As demonstrated, $100/barrel is not going to cripple the economy, especially as we move to electric and hybrid transportation as battery technology improves.