Crunchy Con

"Worse than the Depression"

Friday November 14, 2008

Former Goldman Sachs big John Whitehead:

Whitehead, 86, said the prospect of worsening consumer credit woes combined with an overtaxed federal government make him fear that the current slump is far from over.

"I think it would be worse than the depression," Whitehead said. "We're talking about reducing the credit of the United States of America, which is the backbone of the economic system." Whitehead encountered plenty of crises during his 38 years at the investment banking firm and was a young boy during the 1930s.

Whitehead warned the country's financial strength is at risk due to the sweeping demand for tax relief and a long list of major government spending plans.

"I see nothing but large increases in the deficit, all of which are serving to decrease the credit standing of America," said Whitehead, who served as chairman of the Lower Manhattan Development Corp after the World Trade Center was destroyed during the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Whitehead, who helped make Goldman a top-tier Wall Street firm and led its international expansion, left in 1984 to become a deputy secretary of state under Ronald Reagan.

He warned that the country's record deficit is poised to balloon as the public calls on government for more support.

"Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds," he said. "Eventually U.S. government bonds would no longer be the triple-A credit that they've always been."

There are at least ten "trillion dollar problems," facing the United States, he said, including social security, expanding health insurance, rebuilding infrastructure and increased spending on green energy. At the same time, the public does not want to pay for it.

"The public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs -- all very costly and all done by the government," he said.


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Comments
cx
November 15, 2008 6:45 AM

It sounds like the Republicans have finally reached their goal of making sure the US doesn't have enough money to fund more social spending. I guess that means they won?

Kevin Divine
November 15, 2008 8:39 AM

It may be a good time to invest in food producers. Seems Spam is being produced on all cylinders.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/business/15spam.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1

Gotta see Hormel's next earnings report.

John Médaille
November 15, 2008 9:20 AM
http://www.distributism.blogspot.com

This could be worse than the Great Depression, but not for the reasons cited. During GD, we had enormous social and physical capital to work with. That is no longer true. The physical capital has been dismantled or shipped overseas, and the our social capital, the moral strength of our people, our families, and our communities, have all been depreciated.

MI
November 15, 2008 10:49 AM

Congress is going to shatter the record for "fiscal stimulus" and the Fed is going to engage in debt monetization ("print money") to pay for it.

Along these lines, there are indications that the bond markets may soon be choking on the expected deluge of US Treasury borrowing:

nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/credit-crisis-fallout-investors-leery.html

And yet we still have plenty more bank failures in the offing, as well as a desire for bread & circuses (oops, I meant "stimulus"). With a liquidity trap imposing deflationary pressures, monetization could come to be seen as killing two birds with one stone.

Or three (*):

PBoC Zhou Xiaochuan hinted yesterday that China could depreciate its currency.

Beggar-thy-neighbor (oops, I meant "competitive devaluations"), anyone?


(*) piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Can-Smoot-Hawley-return-in-a-who.htm

Your Name
November 15, 2008 11:59 AM

Re: if collapse causes transportation mostly to shut down...then food shipments into cities will mostly cease...____Even in the Great Depression transportation did not shut down. You people seem to expecting a catastrophe on the magnitude of nuclear war, which is what it would take to mnake transporting goods impossible. Even if a some trucking companies go bankrupt other companies would pick up the slack (that's econ 101, and also common sense). In a true disaster, I can see the government simply nationalizing trucking and employing truck drivers to make necessary deliveries. These survivalist dystopian fantasies (much as we saw about the Y2K bug) seem to assume that human beings are all dumber than bricks and are incapable of finding workarounds when problems occur. Maybe some people are like that, but there's too many smart and capable people also out there and their brains will not quit working if GM goes belly up. If there's food here and hungry people there, then someone will find a way to get it to them, if only because there will be money to be made in doing so (and I wouldn't completely discount humanitarian motives either). ____Re: During GD, we had enormous social and physical capital to work with. That is no longer true. ____???__We have 300 million people, most of them able-bodied and well-educated. We have a large country with plenty of natural resources and fertile soil. We have enormous technical know-how-- probably the world's best and greatest (there's a reason so many foreigners come to be educated here after all). And yes we still have factories despite the defeatist hand-wringing about how we "don't make anything any more". We do. Relative to the whole size of our economy or import/export sector is actually smaller proportionally than that of most other major countries.____Re: Our social capital, the moral strength of our people, our families, and our communities, have all been depleted.____People were no more moral or virtuous in the 1930s than they are now. The idea that there was some kind of lost virtuous golden age (other than the Garden of Eden) is a lot of taurine byproduct. If you could be transported back to 1930 you would encounter plenty of moralists wringing their hands over how the nation's morals had collapsed and looking back to the Golden age of the Victorians-- who probably did the same, but looked back to the stout virtue of the Founders. It's just human nature to forever deplore the sins du jour and What The Younger Generation Is Coming To. The past is always seen through rose-colored glases because we ourselves were younger and less acquainted with reality back then (and it's very easy to paint the era before we were born in any rosy shade we choose).

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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