Crunchy Con

24 Things About to Disappear in America

Friday February 6, 2009

Categories: Culture
We'll mark this, the 5,000th post on Crunchy Con, which will be three years old this spring, with an interesting list a reader sent in from the Interwebs: 24 Things About to Disappear In America. He said that he couldn't...
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Comments
John E. - Agn Stoic
February 6, 2009 6:39 AM

I've got a colony of wild honey bees in a hollow tree in my backyard.

Jon
February 6, 2009 7:07 AM

Re: 20. Phone Landlines

Home security systems generally require a landline phone, so that may keep the landline around for some people.

Re: 24. Yellow Pages

I find the printed yellow pages far easier to search when I am looking for a business category. Online searches can return enormous numbers of entries, making the search very tedious.

Re: 4. Honey Bees

Did you know there were no honey bees in the Americas before Columbus? (And no earthworms either.) There are alternate pollinators obviously. Also, many plants (e.g., grains) are not insect pollinated.

Re: 10. The Milkman

Wow. I thought they were already long gone. My parents told me about milkmen (some houses in our neighbiorhood even had a special milk-chute door), but I never saw one.

Thomas R
February 6, 2009 7:24 AM

8. Wild Horses

TR: Technically speaking wild horses, so far as I know, went extinct in the Americas millennia ago. Looking it up it was around the end of the Ice Age. The Przewalski's horse is the only truly "wild horse" and it's Central Asian. What we call "American wild horses" are really feral horses i.e. the "wild" descendants of domesticate horses brought by the Spanish.

And I think it's actually in dispute if handwritten letters are in decline. Some indicate they may have increased as we're returning to a greater emphasis on the written word. The telephone, possibly, did more to cause a decline. Or so goes one theory.

ambrose
February 6, 2009 8:09 AM

Paper billing, paper bank statements, many forms of paper record-keeping.

aaron
February 6, 2009 8:13 AM

Re: 24. Yellow Pages

I find the printed yellow pages far easier to search when I am looking for a business category. Online searches can return enormous numbers of entries, making the search very tedious.

The exact opposite happens to me. Trying to use the printed yellow book, I can never find a particular business under the obvious categories it should be under (sans attorney and physicians). Online I can narrow my search and find dozens of approriate businesses (many with reviews) in seconds...perhaps a generational gap between us?

iw
February 6, 2009 8:23 AM

Im old enough to remember:
24. Yellow pages, I still let my fingers do the walking.
23. Classified ads, I can't afford to buy anything anyway.
22. Never rented a movie!!
21. Our landlines here on the ranch suck.
20. See 21 above.
19. Whats a Blue Crab???
18. Vcrs, Hey I got a barn full of those!
17. If you have one, go out and kiss your ash while you still have it!!!!
16. I'd gotten one but Morse Code kicked my butt.
15. Got five of them and I wont sue.
14. Hmmm, I got a few of those around to.
13. I miss film, I have a Canon that's great, remember my Argus C3.
12. Whatever.
11. We still have one in Ennis.
10. I remember having two quarts of milk on the front porch in the morning with about an inch of cream on the top.
9. I remember the last one I got. "Get out of town"
8. All horses are wild, horses should only be under the hood.
7. Personal checks, haven't gotten any lately. BOA writes mine.
6. We have a brand new one here in Ennis and they are doing great.
5. Good, had both what a pain.
4. Year before last none. Last year a few. Have seen them this winter. I think it was Albert Einstein that said without them we only had a few years.
3. I look forward to my "Photoshop" magazine every month.
2. There wil always be analog. Pres Zero say so. Bad reception on porch.
1. We stil live on ranch, kids won't come within 5 miles. Show me the money. This is an xpensive hobby.

Peter
February 6, 2009 8:52 AM

My vote for #25: The Constitution of the United States

George Will has a column up on the most recent attempt by Congress to get around constitutional restrictions in an attempt to make Washington, D. C. a de facto state.

The Constitution may never disappear in a physical sense, but in practice, it seems to be more and more irrelevant to how things actually work and the direction this country is going.

Re: 10 - The Milkman

We get our milk delivered. A local dairy (Marburger Farm Dairy, north of Pittsburgh) has delivery routes all through the surrounding area. We pay about a dollar more per gallon of milk than in the supermarket for this service, but the milk is quite a bit fresher on arrival (3-5 days or so on average, based on sell-by dates). Our supermarket does not carry this brand of milk, preferring instead to ship in UDF milk from who-knows-where.

rr
February 6, 2009 9:19 AM

22. Movie Rental Stores

It's little wonder Blockbuster is having a hard time. My local Blockbuster charges about $4.50 to rent a new release! Between Netflix and the $1.00 DVD rental machines that many local grocery stores now have, it makes absolutely no sense to rent from Blockbuster. They will either have to dramatically reduce their prices or go out of business.

rr

Rick
February 6, 2009 9:46 AM

25: Television Networks: With content increasingly available on demand through the internet or cable, the need for TV networks providing content to local affiliates disappers.


26: Most Professional Authors & Journalists — Writing will become a hobby for many, and pathway to celebrity and riches for a few. Mid-list authors and many professional journalists will need to find new ways to make a living.


27. The Middle Class — See #25 and #26 above. The internet is killing income opportunities for millions of middle-men (and woman) — local media affiliates, brokers, realtors, travel agents, wholesalers, etc. It has also empowered hobbysists to compete with professionals. Absent major government intervention, wealth will continue to concentrate.

Jeff Sullivan
February 6, 2009 9:47 AM

There's an independent, stand-alone movie rental store in our town. It appears to be thriving since new owners bought it three years ago. Hopefully they can hang on.

MI
February 6, 2009 9:56 AM

13. There's a difference between "disappear" and "niche market". My brother's a photography buff, and even with digital cameras, he still prefers film. Query to other photographers out there: do y'all share his preference for film v. digital?

12. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll grant that CFLs are becoming more popular - I use them myself - but ISTR them being trashed hereabouts not too long ago:

blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2008/02/people-of-earth-ditch-cfl-bulb_comments.html

Insofar as #12 depends on legislative fiat, color me skeptical.

7. Again, "niche market" vs. "disappear". See, e.g.,

msnbc.msn.com/id/8162732/

Although check usage is trending downward, it still has a long way to go (*), and I could easily see the phaseout taking decades given how many Americans grew up using checks.

5. Two things here:

a) If anti-vaccine crusaders have their way, these won't disappear. (I realize that may not be their intent, but it does seem the logical outcome of decreased vaccination rates.)

b) Although measles & mumps have indeed trended downward over the past 50 yrs, the decline appears to have bottomed out since 2000. Indeed, as of '05, cases of both measles & mumps were rising slightly - both in absolute terms & per 100k - since '04 & '03, respectively (**); OTOH, note also that such declines have reversed in the past.

1. It's interesting that he concludes this prediction by saying, "Nonety-one percent of the U.S. farms are small family farms."


(*) See slide 4, here: bos.frb.org/economic/eprg/presentations/2008/crowe04151708.pdf (313KB PDF)

(**) ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus07tables/Table051.xls (35.5KB Excel file)

Bill
February 6, 2009 10:03 AM

Funny you should post this list right now, Rod, because just this week I was having some kind of midlife crisis spasm in which I paced the house and bemoaned the impending loss of certain "good, old things." Like handwritten letters (and even signatures! Many schools are not even teaching kids how to have a cursive signature). And stationery. And classical music.

Sure, I say good riddance to some of the things on the list (incandescent bulbs, etc.). But we really gotta mourn the loss of certain other things that have made our lives more civilized and enjoyable. "Progress" is indeed a mixed bag.

Connie Connie in Wisconsin
February 6, 2009 10:11 AM

Today when someone calls, you're likely to say "Where are you?" When I was growing up, that was a silly question--you were in the kitchen, of course! Then in the 80s "where are you" turned out to mean anywhere in the house, maybe the garage, with the advent of cordless phones. Now it can mean, where in the world are you.

I'll make a prediction for #25. Classrooms/lecture format for high school learning. Make it virtual, make it hands-on, make it anywhere.

Friend
February 6, 2009 10:12 AM

The only real catastrophe here - but it's a biggie - is honey bees. If this is correct.

The rest of this stuff has either outlived its utility (VCR) or was an actual bad thing anyway (mumps, measles and wild horses) or is of relatively minor status (crabs and ash trees). Or will survive as a niche (film cameras). Actually I'm hearing from my musician friends that analog music (that's records to you) are increasingly interesting to younger audiophiles because of the way CD's and even more so mp3's mangle the music. (Of course, as my friends admit, most of the music deserves no better treatment.) I'd suspect the same situation in photography.

Alicia
February 6, 2009 10:23 AM

Friend, I agree that losing honey bees is a disaster, but would also add Maryland blue crabs and ash trees to that list.

My nieces are so young (15 and 14) that many of these things on the list would be unfamiliar to them. What makes me saddest, aside from the really tragic losses, is that they don't watch many old movies because these are in black and white. They are missing uncounted treasures. But, on the other hand, I will miss out on many of the new things that they take for granted.

Rick
February 6, 2009 10:49 AM

28: Marriage as normative: Married couples are already now a minority of households, I believe, and this trend will only accelerate.

Marriage is risky for men, since in marrying they face a substantial risk of losing wealth and children in an unwanted divorce. And for the nonreligious, marriage offers few benefits not available to singles. In coming years, marriage will increasingly become the province of a small religious minority.

Roland de Chanson
February 6, 2009 10:55 AM

#25 Libraries.

Not just because of the looming depression, though several local libraries are either laying off staff, curtailing hours, or considering closing.

Many libraries are less and less treasuries of books and quiet places for research, cogitation and writing, but rather depots for dvd's, cd's, vcr's (despite the demise of the players) and lounges for computer surfers and vagabonds of dubious hygiene.

If the local branch closes, I will have to begin frequenting taverns when I need a respite from my wife. Taverns are not about to disappear.

Either that or I will become a bee-keeper.

Rick
February 6, 2009 11:05 AM

Good call on libraries, Roland.

#29: Rising life expectancy: To stem runaway health care costs, Medicare and insurers will ration and cap health care at the end of life, leading to a reversal in life expectancy.

Personally, this is a change I welcome: I do not judge increasing the years of my decrepitude through expensive and burdensome interventions to be a good. I would not pay for this myself, and I certainly don't expect taxpayers to pick up the tab.

Jason
February 6, 2009 11:20 AM

I'll write down my nomination for #25 and mail it to you.

Brian Sullivan
February 6, 2009 11:20 AM
http://denythecat.blogspot.com

Related to #22, the CD. As more people are getting their music via downloads, the pre-recorded CD will only be seen as desirable to people who want all the songs and graphics of a given release.

B. Minich
February 6, 2009 11:23 AM

We'll miss the blue crabs in Maryland. If you've never had a blue crab covered in Old Bay seasoning . . . man, you haven't lived!

The sad part is that this is one of the few things Maryland can claim of their own.

As for wild horses, the sort of wild ones on Assateague island will stick around as long as the barrier island is with us.

Appalachian Prof
February 6, 2009 11:30 AM

I don't have a #25 to add. I just wish to lament the loss of the incandescent bulb. It has one big advantage over its curly cousin being foisted on us: NO MERCURY.

octopus
February 6, 2009 11:31 AM

Seattle has home delivery of milk from Smith Brothers dairy

as for personal checks, please, please, kill them! I am absolutely dread being behind someone at the grocery store as they scribble away. Guess what folks! There isn't a float anymore on it, it is slammed the moment the register reads it...

sorry for the rant

freddy
February 6, 2009 11:36 AM

Have to disagree with you about Ham Radio. Numbers may dwindle, but as a ham radio licensee, wife to another, and mom to three who have licenses and one avidly studying, I've seen both the importance and durability of ham radio. Weather training and emergency drills are part of our lives: we coordinate with local law inforcement during power outages and other emergencies. Ham radio operators provided essential support during Hurricane Katrina -- working at relief centers and providing names to emergency personnel to help families find each other, as well as working long hours coordinating with various agencies helping with relief efforts. Cell phones and the internet can be unpredictable and often tied to local power sources. Ham radio, a small but valiant group, has been around for a hundred years. I predict it will be around another hundred.

Unless all the bees disappear and we all die.

Friend
February 6, 2009 11:38 AM

I deplore the loss of any life form. (Well, almost any life form. I wouldn't cry, though maybe I should, if the mosquito went extinct.) So ash trees and blue crabs OK.

But I live in California, a huge agricultural state, and for food production we depend very heavily on honey bees, which are trucked in enormous lots from orchard to orchard in the spring. (I'm talking many square miles of flowering trees, as far as you can see, not your grandpa's 5 apple trees.) Yes, there were (and are) native pollinators, but none so far which can be harnessed to take the economic place of these bees. (The honey is a mere by-product.)

Is agribusiness a bad thing anyway? We should all grow our own food? Or support "family farms" (and how would family farms propose to pollinate their trees?) ? I'd suggest to you that the abundance of cheap fruits and vegetables which has been available to us would be sorely missed. Except for those of us who are willing to live on unadorned rice I guess.

Abigail
February 6, 2009 11:52 AM

To piggy-back on a previous post - handwriting. My daughters, ages 10 and 12, have deplorable handwriting. I can remember at that age practicing my cursive letters until I had perfect cursive handwriting. Now I can barely read even their print writing. Their teachers don't seem to mind or allow them to do all work on a computer!

Kirk
February 6, 2009 12:01 PM

#25. The college campus as we know it. With the advent of high-speed internet, online college courses are becoming the norm rather than the exception. First you will see layoffs of teachers and professors at community colleges as these entities are able to offer distance learning programs from centralized, networked sources. Then you'll see layoffs at smaller private schools. Finally, larger schools will decentralize their campuses.

Bill
February 6, 2009 12:08 PM

I'll take the liberty of commenting again, since Rod's post got me so riled up. Organ music is also on its way out, as are traditional worship forms (at least here in the Protestant world, where the seeker-sensitive style has spread across the theological spectrum and we traditionalists are defending the last stand).

And screened porches. Growing up in a place with fairly hot and humid summers, we eschewed air conditioning and instead lived the summer months on our porches. Now most houses are sealed up tight. Ick.

Dressing up for church is also (for us white folk) clearly on the way out. In fact, I can hardly think of anything that white folk dress up for these days. Sad.


MC
February 6, 2009 12:14 PM

I have no idea if the Ash tree is dying out, but I know for sure that the reason maple bats have become more popular is the simple fact that Major League batters like them:

"Maple bats are thought to have been introduced into the game by Toronto outfielder Joe Carter in the early 1990s and became increasingly popular due to the wood's hardness, though the usage rate has leveled off in the past few years. Testing has shown that balls do not leave a maple bat with any greater velocity than off an ash bat."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/06/17/verducci.maplebats/index.html

Bakehouse
February 6, 2009 12:15 PM

North America lost a lot of elm and chestnut trees years ago. Now there are new diseases that are killing pine trees in Louisiana and oak trees in Texas. What will we have left?

EddieInCA
February 6, 2009 12:22 PM

I can hardly think of anything that white folk dress up for these days. Sad.

1. GOP conventions.
2. Anti-Immigration Rallies
3. Sarah Palin Events

Mark V
February 6, 2009 12:50 PM

1. The Family Farm

I think I read lately that the number of farms inched up a little lately according to the USDA. They define anything that sells more than $1000 in agricultural produce as a farm. The increase was in small niche farms.

Despite reports of it's demise, the family farm is still alive here in the Midwest. They've just gotten fewer and bigger. They may have multi-million dollar gross sales and many employees but even the biggest farms are mostly family owned. Now if you're talking about single family full-time farms with few if any non-family employees, their numbers continue to decline.

Roland de Chanson
February 6, 2009 12:52 PM

#25 (another one) religious orders, especially missionaries.

When I was young, the missions were presented as the consummate ideal of the religious life, the spreading of the Gospel in the Third World and the building of schools and hospitals to improve the lives of those living in poverty. Along with the decline in vocations in general, the lack of missionaries is a casualty of the sensate secular mindset and the moral chaos emblematic of the dictatorship of relativism. Most greatly to be deplored.

A concomitant trend to be lamented is of course the underappreciation of the missionary position itself. Despite the availability of more choices, a return to basic postures is fundamental to the regeneration of humanity.

Insane Kitten
February 6, 2009 12:57 PM

Cash. And sports stadiums named after people or places, not products.

Major Wootton
February 6, 2009 12:59 PM

Excellent, Bill at 12:08.

The Correspondent
February 6, 2009 1:08 PM
http://my42cents.blogspot.com/

Apropos of line item 9, I try to keep this fire alive. I do not hand-write my letters, but that is only because I fear the dreaded Carpal Tunnel. It's a shame, really, my handwriting is quite handsome, despite how crudely I hold my pen (according to one Mrs. Majewski of the third grade).

Lance
February 6, 2009 1:11 PM

Vanishing honey bees unsettles me more than anything really. Surprising that it gets so little attention. I wonder what the politicians are thinking? If I don't have a reliable supply of food, I will get cranky. Not to mention what will happen to mankind. Uncertain times ahead.

Michael
February 6, 2009 1:11 PM

Landlines may not be as doomed as you think. It turns out the credit agencies downgrade you if you only have a cell phone. Don't know why, but they do.

Your Name
February 6, 2009 1:17 PM

Re: Libraries

I'm a librarian and libraries aren't going anywhere. If your local library carries more DVDs than books, that speaks more to your community than the health of libraries. Since a single book replaced several scrolls, people have been writing libraries off, but we still exist. We are the first thing cut in local and college budgets but we still survive. Libraries are vibrant places. We still provide quiet places for reading and reflection (you can take the books home usually), but thinking that is all we are good for is...quaint.

ScurvyOaks
February 6, 2009 2:15 PM

25. Stoicism. ;)

*

Has P.J. O'Rourke been reading this blog and Sharon's? The latest from Peej:

"America is experiencing a polar ice cap and financial meltdown, causing sea levels to rise and sending cold water flooding into Wall Street where the rapidly acidifying ocean is corroding our 401(k)s and releasing mortgage securities full of hot air into the atmosphere until our every breath is full of CO2 especially when we exhale, which should be banned when children are present lest their uninsured health care be harmed by second-hand greenhouse gases that are causing endangerment of plant and animal species (Republicans are extinct already), leading to a shortage of green, leafy vegetables vital to the fight against America's growing epidemics of obese hunger and housing foreclosures on the homeless."


Unsympathetic reader
February 6, 2009 2:54 PM

Re #16 - Take the amateur radio demise with a grain of salt.

Currently, the US has about 2 hams/1000 population (UK 1 ham/1K, Japan 10/1K). Morse Code was dropped for all classes of US amateur radio licences in Feb 2007. In the following two years, the number of FCC amateur radio licenses increased by over 5,000 (currently 662K). Right now it's down by about 11,000 from ten years ago but still *double* the '60 and '70s numbers of somewhat over a quarter million. The 2007/1997 figures for the UK shows an increase of 3K (out of 64K total). Japanese stations are about where they were in 1982 (but a 2.5x drop since the peak of 1995). A larger number of new hams gets drawn from pools of fresh retirees (with time to spend on a hobby), electronic engineers and computer programmers. The internet, which provides many with access to information about electronic experimentation and instruction (e.g. MAKE magazine), has actually helped direct new people into the hobby. Today, there are more people playing with electronics than ever before.

Source:
http://www.ah0a.org/AH0A.html

Graphic:
http://p1k.arrl.org/~ehare/ham_population.bmp

Re #20 - Landlines
They'll remain but may get swapped by optical or coax lines which also feed internet & multimedia. What will be updated is the ability for a telephone number to follow you around to the nearest telephone in real time.

Things kids won't know:
Dot matrix printers (huge decline in the 1980's)
Electric typewriters (huge decline in the 1980's)
Calculators (to be replaced by PDAs)
Stand-alone FAX machines
Picture tube TVs
The Milky Way - soon to become invisible in all but the most remote locations.

the stupid Chris
February 6, 2009 3:50 PM

Things about to disappear: The GOP.

Here's a snip of an interview with Tony Perkins...

Q: Was there an event or series of events that soured the relationship between social conservatives and the Republican Party?

A: It is something that happened after 2004, when there was a great emphasis by the Republicans and the president on the need to protect marriage. It was used to secure a second term for President Bush and to expand Republican control of Congress. And after the election, the issue was basically dropped.
That, combined with corruption that distracted the Republican Party, Mark Foley—it all added up to where people began to scratch their heads and say, "This is not the party that is really reflecting our values."

Social conservatives have kept the GOP alive all these years, and the GOP abandoned them thus abandoning its future.

Saul Menowitz
February 6, 2009 4:23 PM

Retards. Seriously, I know it sounds offensive, but with the use of amnio for the purpose of determining if there's a chance of a baby being born retarded, so many of them are aborted that you just don't see very many retarded children anymore.

Sorry but somebody had to say it. Maybe not as important as honey bees . . . .

Sharon Astyk
February 6, 2009 4:24 PM

The family farm will be coming back quite soon, I suspect.

My bet on things to disappear next - the "tween" - that cultural construct of the sales industry, the result of pushing children too fast to adulthood. I'm guessing a major cultural rebellion against the concept is coming.

Sharon

who knew
February 6, 2009 4:29 PM

Number 25 for me is television. Now that we will have to pay for any of it (don't think that we won't eventually have to "up-grade" those converter boxes) we will probably all come to realize that it is just not that great an entertainment value. Plus you can now get monitors that double as T.V. screens.

My husband was amazed the other day that the kids and I stated that we would all rather keep the internet going over the television if we had to choose (and we will soon have to choose, probably about next month).

I agree with the librarian at 1:17, also. A local news story reported that library usage increased with the downturn in the economy. And probably it is because videos and dvds are available there. Whatever the reason, I think they'll stay. Maybe just in a less intellectual form, especially with "kindle" posed to take the place of books. Pity, that.

Re: home milk delivery. We had it from a local dairy up until a couple years ago. My kids never knew you bought milk from a store until they were well out of toddler stage, they thought the dairy fairies brought it. We're considering a law suit against a large cheese company for stealing our phrase. Now of course we have to drive a ways to the same family farm to buy our milk but consider it worth it. We get to see the cows.

Mission Impossible
February 6, 2009 4:41 PM

“A concomitant trend to be lamented is of course the underappreciation of the missionary position itself. Despite the availability of more choices, a return to basic postures is fundamental to the regeneration of humanity.”

I couldn’t agree more.

Salamander
February 6, 2009 4:44 PM

My daughter found an "old-fashioned" telephone at the swap shop at the dump -- she had no idea what it was. I explained it was an old phone, and told her how they used to be attached to the wall, and how the receiver was attached by a cord. Wide-eyed, she said "Wow, mommy - you should get one of those! Then you wouldn't keep losing it in the couch cushions!"

Matt, Hartford CT
February 6, 2009 4:46 PM

What's even more interesting is how #4, CCD has been largely avoided by any "respectible" media group.

Mostly cause it's really, really frightening (not like global warming frightening, or terroist attack frightening) and they have absolutely NO idea what's going on.

There are theories from mites, to virus, to HAARP.

Problem is, a large portion of all produce is fertalized via honey-bee.

They are working now with an Australian form of the bee which seems ot be immune. Time will tell.

Sydney Brillo Duodenum
February 6, 2009 5:19 PM

25. Common sense.

Jon
February 6, 2009 5:35 PM

Re: Along with the decline in vocations in general, the lack of missionaries is a casualty of the sensate secular mindset and the moral chaos emblematic of the dictatorship of relativism.

Why do we need missions nowadays? with the possible exception of some remote corners of the Amazon and some even more remote corners of New Guinea, the Great Commission has been fulfilled: the Gospel has been preached everywhere on Earth. And in most parts of the world (notably in Africa, Latin America and Oceana) there's a well-established local church that can and should be doing the job of evangelizing the local population. Sending folks from America to preach at people in Botswana runs afoul of St Paul's earning against planting in another's garden. Any missionary work that should be done now needs doing right here at home.

Z
February 6, 2009 5:40 PM

28: Marriage as normative: Married couples are already now a minority of households, I believe, and this trend will only accelerate

It is only straight people who have forgotten the value of marriage.

Also, libraries won't disappear, but they might evolve as we migrate to kindle type devices.

ron
February 6, 2009 6:07 PM

Get Omega Protein out of Virginia and the crabs will be back. These are the type of common sense environmental issues we all should be able to agree upon.

http://www.chesbay.org/articles/4.asp

Thomas R
February 6, 2009 8:32 PM

Oh I guess I should've done a 25.

Print encyclopedias: For years I was looking for an update as my set of encyclopedias are from the 1960s. Sadly I waited too long and print encyclopedias are now difficult or impossible to find. They may already be dead. I kind of miss them.


Rawlins
February 6, 2009 8:47 PM

I ALSO PREDICT:

1) Interest over the next 30 years in Paris Hilton will fade.

2) Peach tea will not replace high balls in country club bowling alleys.
__________GONE

3) There will be, within 20 years, no new Tara Reid films.

4) Pauly Shore will disappear altogether, like the dinosaurs and horn toads.

David J. White
February 6, 2009 8:53 PM

My daughter found an "old-fashioned" telephone at the swap shop at the dump -- she had no idea what it was. I explained it was an old phone, and told her how they used to be attached to the wall, and how the receiver was attached by a cord. Wide-eyed, she said "Wow, mommy - you should get one of those! Then you wouldn't keep losing it in the couch cushions!"

That reminds me of something my father told me about 30 years ago, just when calculators started to become common. A colleague of his at the research lab where he worked said that his young son had found his (the father's) old slide rule. The son's reaction was, "Wow! This is great! It doesn't need batteries or anything!"

David J. White
February 6, 2009 9:00 PM

We are the first thing cut in local and college budgets but we still survive. Libraries are vibrant places. We still provide quiet places for reading and reflection (you can take the books home usually), but thinking that is all we are good for is...quaint.

I'm a librarian too, though I'm not working as one at the moment. In Ohio, where I come from (and where I got my MLIS), traditionally library levies get more support from the public than school levies. If a library levy and a school levy are on the same ballot, and if only one of them passes, usually it will be the library levy.

Klaus
February 6, 2009 9:06 PM

Spam. No, not the junk email, the food. My kid couldn't understand why I wanted to pick up a can of Spam. When I told him what it was, he said: That will never survive my generation. I think, for obvious reasons, he is probably right.

silver
February 6, 2009 10:33 PM

I find it telling that "dial up internet access" and "the milkman" are items on the same list. I think that suggests that the author is young. I do remember the milkman. And since I now drink raw milk, the only legal way possible, which is to buy a cow share and pay for delivery. So the milkman has happily returned into my life, and dial up internet access is happily out of my life.

John
February 6, 2009 11:28 PM

#25: How about Churches, or at least the one-pastor-per church model?? Most churches still operate like it's 1550, where illiterate villagers walk to the church to be addressed by the man in the pulpit who is the only knowledgable person around. But today, religious information is everywhere. Why pay a substantial sum to a guy who will tell you what you already know and believe anyway? I like the model of a super preacher who beams his sermons by cable into many churches. The local staff at each church, perhaps laypeople, do the pastoral care. Why not use the money to do something worthwhile, like build the Faith in Africa, instead of subsidizing the comfortable life of a guy who doesn't really provide a lot of value added? My church has about 40 people, down from about 60 several years ago, the pastor gets close to $100k/year and I don't know why.

New Englander
February 7, 2009 12:46 AM

About 5 yrs ago my brother and I had to clean out our aunt's house next door (she was in a nursing home) and we salvaged 2 rotary dial phones. We cleaned them up and installed them in our house. Sure, we both have cell phones and a cord-less phone. And yes, we really don't use the rotary dial phones very much, but they do in fact work quite well; one was manufactured in 1970; the other, in 1960. Compare that with today's cell phones, which seem to conk out after three or four years! You know what? I am going to look for a third rotary dial phone for our kitchen! Quite easy to find on the Internet!

godisaheretic
February 7, 2009 1:19 AM

Happy 5,000th Rod.

And coming soon to a theater near you (or actually going):

25. Banks
26. Schools
27. Hospitals

I mean, those were the three funniest ones I could think of.

money education health faith hope love joy peace to all...
(though eternity has no purpose)...

Thomas R
February 7, 2009 1:55 AM

"Why pay a substantial sum to a guy who will tell you what you already know and believe anyway?" John

TR: I'm Catholic and Rod's Orthodox. So what you're saying may be borderline inexplicable to us. (Well Rod was raised Methodist so may get it)

I don't pay my priest anything, all donations are voluntary. Nor do I go to Church for "a guy saying religious stuff." In Catholicism, and Orthodoxy too I think, you largely for the connection to God through Eucharist and liturgy as well as connection to the community of believers.

To be honest even in Protestantism I don't think it works like what you're suggesting. There are many things you presumably "get" by being in the social community that you don't get over the screen.

Jon
February 7, 2009 8:23 AM

Re: Rising life expectancy: To stem runaway health care costs, Medicare and insurers will ration and cap health care at the end of life, leading to a reversal in life expectancy.

I don't think we'll see a reversal in life expectancy (unless we start living even more unhealthy lives). A lot of end of life healthcare is absolutely futile anyway; once you are on your deathbed it's rare that anything will take you off it that doesn't involve a hearse and a pall. More likely what we are going to see is less money going to medical research. That will mean less innovation, and in the long run fewer new cures and treatments. In effect, medicine will become frozen (or nearly so) at its current state. That's not bad: our life expectancy is quite high already, and if the trade-off for getting healthcare to everyone is postponing the day we can all live to be 150, then that's acceptable.

MI
February 7, 2009 10:11 AM

Print encyclopedias: For years I was looking for an update as my set of encyclopedias are from the 1960s. Sadly I waited too long and print encyclopedias are now difficult or impossible to find. They may already be dead. I kind of miss them.

TR - Not sure what exactly you're looking for, but Encyclopedia Britannica still carries print versions. A bit pricy at $1200/set, but that seems comparable to when I last priced them (admittedly almost a decade ago).

who knew
February 7, 2009 10:24 AM

Kudos to "godisaheratic" for remembering to congratulate Rod on his 5,000, something I know I rudely forgot to do. Got wrapped up in the game, I apologize.

Also, John re: churches. How will the end of church as a gathering place square with the "Benedict Option" that many of us are rather looking forward to when it all hits the fan in the next few months?

Tom
February 7, 2009 10:38 AM

Reading number 15 "The Swimming Hole" brought nothing but sadness knowing that my children will not grow up having the experience of walking down a winding path to the river only to spend the day with friends laughing and swinging on that old frayed, knotted rope that usually dangled over every good swimming hole. I wish lawyers had made the list. If they had, we'd probably see a return of what was great about America.

Jon
February 7, 2009 11:12 AM

Re: like the model of a super preacher who beams his sermons by cable into many churches.

Experience with "problem children" like Ted Haggard and Jimmie Swaggart should demonstrate the perils of the "super-preacher".

Pyrrho
February 7, 2009 11:54 AM

#25: The idea that Obama and the Democrats are the answer.

Martin Wolf:

First, focus all attention on reversing the collapse in demand now, rather than on the global architecture.

Second, employ overwhelming force. The time for “shock and awe” in economic policymaking is now.

Unfortunately, what is coming out of the US is desperately discouraging. Instead of an overwhelming fiscal stimulus, what is emerging is too small, too wasteful and too ill-focused. Instead of decisive action to recapitalise banks, which must mean temporary public control of insolvent banks, the US may be returning to the immoral and ineffective policy of bailing out those who now hold the “toxic assets”.

Yves Smith

The Obama Administration is as obviously and fully hostage to the interests of the financial services industry as the Bush crowd was. We have no new thinking, no willingness to take measures that are completely defensible (in fact not doing them takes some creative positioning) like wiping out shareholders at obviously dud banks (Citi is top of the list), forcing bondholder haircuts and/or equity swaps, replacing management, writing off and/or restructuring bad loans, and deciding whether and how to reorganize and restructure the company. Instead, the banks are now getting the AIG treatment: every demand is being met, no tough questions asked, no probing of the accounts (or more important, the accounting).

I am desperately unhappy.

Liz
February 7, 2009 11:59 AM

12. Incandescent Bulbs

I question the greenness of CFL's. They contain mercury which is released if they are accidentally broken. How green are they if you have to call HazMat to clean up the mess? The only thing green about them is the green tinge they give to your skin color.

Pyrrho
February 7, 2009 12:00 PM

#26: That the GOP is a responsible political party.

Paul Krugman:

Thirty-six out of 41 Republican Senators voted for the proposed DeMint amendment to the stimulus bill — a massive package of permanent tax cuts that would create a huge hole in the budget, while doing very little to help the economy.

There isn’t much room for bipartisanship when 87.8% of the other party is totally irresponsible.

I think Krugman is going easy on them. Anybody who thinks the DeMint amendment is a good idea is a complete and utter fool.

Pyrrho
February 7, 2009 12:03 PM

I have nothing else to add, except to remind you to keep the axles on the tumbrels well greased and to keep those pitchforks sharp.

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 2:52 PM

Pyrrho,

Did you see the jobs chart from today?

Rob
February 7, 2009 5:08 PM

17. Ash Trees

They're in decline, but I wouldn't say they're on the verge of disappearing completely. State and local governments have set up quarantines around affected areas (including one just down the street here in the western 'burbs of Chicago), and the transport of firewood has been significantly restricted as a result of the disease.

While this gives the U.S. a couple of decades to diversify ash populations, the odds of researchers finding another solution (better chemicals, some sort of bug or bird to eat just this beetle) increase every year.

-Rob

Pyrrho
February 7, 2009 6:13 PM

Chris: Did you see the jobs chart from today?

Yeah. The actual figure is probably higher because the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a theoretical model based on the past few years to estimate job gains or losses in various sectors of the economy. This overstates or understates the number when the economy changes suddenly to the upside or downside. It's proabably overstating it now ... by a lot.

I see signs of deflation everywhere. It's actually very unsettling.

Pyrrho
February 7, 2009 6:15 PM

That is, it is overstating the number of jobs being added in sectors of the economy the BLS does not actually count.

It is understating the rise in unemployment.

Jerry
February 7, 2009 6:53 PM
http://minormutterings.blogspot.com

I would argue that even with the decline in total licensees that Amateur Radio will not be going away anytime soon. This is due to the fact that during times of natural disaster and other emergencies Amateur Radio is often the only way to get communications out of the disaster area.

Even with cell phones becoming ubiquitous, it doesn't take much to make them virtually useless. During the Minneapolis bridge collapse a year or so ago even this very localized emergency resulted in such an increase in people trying to use their phones that the system was overloaded.

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 9:03 PM

I concur about the jobs stats and deflationary cycle that in fact has started.

Which is why this past week's debate is even more disheartening. The bad faith of the conservative movement towards America is summed up in this post from its coordinator, Grover Norquist, at NRO yesterday:

The economy as measured by the market and businesses’ willingness to hire does not sound very excited by the Reid/Pelosi/Obama spending spree.

The economy began to collapse when the Democrats captured the House and Senate and we then knew that the lower tax rates on individuals, capital gains, and dividends would end after 2010.

We are in the early stages of the Reid/Obama/Pelosi recession and nothing they are even talking about doing will help.

The conservative movement is

David J. White
February 7, 2009 9:09 PM

Spam. No, not the junk email, the food. My kid couldn't understand why I wanted to pick up a can of Spam. When I told him what it was, he said: That will never survive my generation. I think, for obvious reasons, he is probably right.

Unless the economy really tanks and that's all he and his generation can afford to buy to eat. After all, the reason so many people ate Spam in postwar Britain wasn't because they liked it but because it was cheap.

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 9:21 PM

Agreed about the jobs stats.

Which is why I found this past week, today included, to be so utterly disheartening. The bad faith demonstrated by the conservative movement towards America was best encapsulated by yesterday's post at NRO by none other than Grover Norqust himself, the movement's head tax-cutter and purity coordinator:

The economy as measured by the market and businesses’ willingness to hire does not sound very excited by the Reid/Pelosi/Obama spending spree.

The economy began to collapse when the Democrats captured the House and Senate and we then knew that the lower tax rates on individuals, capital gains, and dividends would end after 2010.

We are in the early stages of the Reid/Obama/Pelosi recession and nothing they are even talking about doing will help.

What a shameless con artist. He makes Bernie Madoff look downright honorable.

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 9:24 PM

Spam. No, not the junk email, the food. My kid couldn't understand why I wanted to pick up a can of Spam. When I told him what it was, he said: That will never survive my generation. I think, for obvious reasons, he is probably right.

Don't tell Hawaiians. It's their state food!

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 9:28 PM

sorry 'bout the premature post up there. didn't think the miscue had gotten thru.

the stupid Chris
February 7, 2009 10:05 PM

By the way, do polaroids count, or are they considered already gone?

Thomas R
February 7, 2009 10:29 PM

Another possible American thing that may disappear is the Church of Christ, Scientists aka Christian Scientists. They don't keep numbers, but reportedly they've been in a pretty solid decline. Not saying that's good or bad.

Jon
February 7, 2009 11:11 PM

Re: I see signs of deflation everywhere.

I've seen others claim this, but where is the deflation in the real world? Other than gas prices (and those have been creeping up since New Years) I have not noticed any of the prices on things I actually buy declining consistently. There's been some up and down on groceries, as always, but they're still historically high. Nothing else I pay for (rent, utilities, clothing, insurance, healthcare, entertainment expenses, garden supplies, books, magazines, etc. etc.) shows any sign of deflation.

RUN_FORREST_RUN
February 7, 2009 11:13 PM
http://christiantopix.ipbfree.com

Yeah, I’ve got a few.

1) Service Oriented Businesses - Remember the Gas station attendant who came out to put gas in your car when your tires rolled over that “ding-ding” black cord stretched across the Fuel Island? Remember dialing a phone and not getting a recording with “options”? Remember when there was no such thing as the “Self Serve Computer automated Checkout Line” at Wal-Mart?

It’s nice to have memories, isn’t it?

2) Nationally agreed upon Moral Values - The old “I Love Lucy” episodes with Lucy and Ricky’s bedroom having two double beds has been replaced with Primetime news coverage of whoever the latest Homosexual Congressman “outing” himself is.

And even those news stories are beginning to be printed further back in the Newspaper.

Add to that: mindless sitcoms that have no genuine humor, but certainly do have a “laughtrack”, mesmerizing our youth with a “Pied Piper” kind of hypnotism, Archie Comic Books that have been replaced with dark, demonic “Graphic Novels”, and video games marketed to teens, but have embedded “Cheat” codes to reveal nudity.

I still don’t know how Jughead could eat so much and not gain an ounce.

3) The 50th wedding anniversary - Statistics show that in spite of the rampant divorce rate today, the number of married couples celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary will actually continue to rise. But that good news will not last forever, if our rampant divorce rate stays the same.

Who are the couples celebrating the Golden? Those who were married back in the late 1950’s, and early 60’s, when divorce was taboo, and those values were instilled in them by their parents.

But the moral breakdown of our society will erode those values away, causing the faithful to slowly fade away into obscurity, leaving only the “fast food, disposable marriage” generation to only wonder how a Golden Wedding Anniversary was even possible.

Hallmark’s “Homosexual Greeting Cards” do not help matters any.

4) The definition of “Normal” - Normal used to mean how everyone in society behaved for the general preservation of social customs along with agreed upon rules of conduct.

But movies like “Star Wars”, and words like “diversity” are slowing making the word “Normal” a thing of the past. Like some kind of obsolete word destined to be looked up in the dictionary with the notation “archaic”.

Graham
February 7, 2009 11:49 PM
http://gbrenna.com

And Star Wars takes a shot out of no where... wow...

It is nice to have these memories... we'll always be able to say things like, "remember when phones had rotors?" But we can't be angry that things are dying off. In most cases, they are just being replaced by something more convenient. When our kids get to be in their later years they might say things like... "remember when you actually had to DRIVE the car?"

Don't be angry that things aren't the way the used to be. The definition of normal will change for every generation.

the stupid Chris
February 8, 2009 1:59 AM

I've seen others claim this, but where is the deflation in the real world?

Retailers are having sales of up to 60% off that result in goods costing less this year than last. In turn the retailers are negotiating lower rents with their landlords which results in commercial real estate costing less this year than last..

Non-union new employees are being offered lower wages than a year ago for the same job, managers have had their wages frozen or cut, existing workers are seeing their hours trimmed back, in some cases by as much as 10%. With 3.5 million people having lost their jobs since December 2007, people feel no power to negotiate their wages, there's always someone who will take the job just to have a job.

If you have an ARM on your home, you'll notice that you're paying less now than only six months ago. The real cost of your mortgage has gone down.

An anecdote worth considering: I went to an In 'N' Out burger here last week and there was no line. No line at the drive-thru window, no line inside the store, only about 1/2 the tables were taken. At 6:45pm. It was eerie in a Hitchcockian way, you could feel that something bad was about to happen.

the stupid Chris
February 8, 2009 2:15 AM

Who are the couples celebrating the Golden? Those who were married back in the late 1950’s, and early 60’s, when divorce was taboo, and those values were instilled in them by their parents.

The reason those who married back in the 50s and early 60s will be celebrating their golden anniversaries is that it's closer to 50 years since they got married. It would be cheeky, indeed, for someone who got married in 1979 to declare this to be their golden anniversary year, don't you think?

By the way, none of my grandparents made their golden. One grandmother died young, and the other grandfather died six months before his. What used to be the enemy of the golden anniversary was death, and in many cases it still is.

Benny carpenter
February 8, 2009 2:54 AM

what ...no VCR? next you will be telling me sweet 8 track tape deck will go the way of the dodo!

Say it isn't so!

Lord Karth
February 8, 2009 2:58 AM

Jon @ 11:11 PM writes:

“Re: I see signs of deflation everywhere.
I've seen others claim this, but where is the deflation in the real world? Other than gas prices (and those have been creeping up since New Years) I have not noticed any of the prices on things I actually buy declining consistently. There's been some up and down on groceries, as always, but they're still historically high. Nothing else I pay for (rent, utilities, clothing, insurance, healthcare, entertainment expenses, garden supplies, books, magazines, etc. etc.) shows any sign of deflation.”

There is some deflation going on, but it’s mostly in the financial sector. All those ones-and-zeros in people’s IRAs/SEPs/401(k)s are no longer there waiting to chase goods and services in Reality; if that’s not deflationary, I don’t know what is. Unemployment is rising as well; that tends to drag down what the economists call the “velocity”of money. It’s rather like the scenario some people have been analogizing to for a while; a car (the economy) having the gas pedal (inflation/money supply) pushed down while the brakes are locking up. The idea is to have the car slow down to the point of being able to pull it over, rather than having the brakes lock up totally and have the car flip over and kill everyone inside.

I still think the inflationist forces are going to win out; the money supply has just skyrocketed over the last few months. The banks are sitting on those new deposits (because they’re primarily loans, not outright asset deposits. Let’s also not forget that the banks’ balance sheets are seriously in the toilet (BoA’s capitalization ratio is still under 3 %; it should be 5-7 % at a minimum to keep the regulators happy), and there are still all sorts of toxic time-bomb assets that are waiting to get written down. They can’t get written down all at once without wiping out the assets—that would kill the banks off entirely. I don’t see mark-to-market getting suspended anytime soon, since that would make lots of those time-bomb assets impossible to value reliably. That would utterly destroy what little confidence is left in the banking system.

From where I sit (Pyrrho, Chris, feel free to correct me on this if you like), correcting the economy’s major problem means restoring the banking system to something resembling functionality. That means that banks have to do two things: write down lots and lots of non-performing loans while at the same time attracting new deposits. Attempting one would be bad enough; trying to do both at the same time is just about impossible without a new source of deposits. Meanwhile, spurring new business activity (the main source of productivity and, therefore, new real wealth to serve as potential deposits) is going to be more difficult than it was before, because lending standards are going to be an awful lot tighter than they were previously.

The central government claims to be trying to stand in for the private sector in doing that spurring, but its claims are seriously overblown. Much of the spending in what I refer to as the “Jimmy Dean Memorial Pure Pork Stimulus Package and Giant Sausage Sandwich (World’s Largest)” won’t kick in for a long while. Furthermore, without reducing the tax burden on productive investment (and its results), the burden of the central government on the weakened productive economy will not be lessened. If anything, it will be increased. This will show up as inflation, as all those injections of "stimulus money" will wind up being paid for by getting monetized.

Bottom line: the next five to seven years, economically speaking, are going to be seriously not pretty, since people and firms will be trying to survive and rebuild their balance sheets. Why anyone would want the job of Chief Executive right now, under these conditions, is rather beyond me.

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Lord Karth
February 8, 2009 3:15 AM

Pyrrho @ 6:13 PM writes:

“Chris: Did you see the jobs chart from today?

Yeah. The actual figure is probably higher because the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a theoretical model based on the past few years to estimate job gains or losses in various sectors of the economy. This overstates or understates the number when the economy changes suddenly to the upside or downside. It's probably overstating it now ... by a lot.”

From what I am told, the current official rate is 7.6 percent. If you factor in the discouraged worker and the part-timers who want to find something better but can’t, it’s more like 10 or 11 percent.
I am not making any cash bets against the real rate going to 15 before all is said and done. 17 or 18 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I hope like Hell I’m wrong.

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Robert
February 8, 2009 3:52 AM

While the majority of the list is accurate, particularly the inclusion of the honeybee, #16, Ham radio should not be included in the list. Ham operators are an unseen network of folks that provide backup communications in times of emergencies. 2 examples: Sept 11, 2001 and the 2005 hurricane season (Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Disasters such as these cause the collapse of major communications infrastructure, both for the general population and public services like police and fire. During these times, Ham operators step in and provide communications assistance for everyone. How often has your internet worked during a power outage, or your cellphone when the towers are knocked down or everyone is trying to make a call all at the same time. Also, the National Weather Service heavily relies on Ham operators to provide real time eyes-on data to their local offices to issue watches and warnings. Those are just a couple of things hams do. But of course you'd never hear about it on the local news. Also, most of the astronauts are hams are there are ham radio stations aboard the space shuttles and ISS. Your statistic of 50,000 people dropping their license in the last 5 years is totally innacurate. Theres actually been a resurgence in Ham operations in the last 2 years due to the dropping of the morse code requirement. Hopefully its a sign of people being fed up with their stagnant lifestyles and getting away from the tv and learning something new for a change. Also, drive-ins, sure, those drastically disappeared over the last 30 years, but those too are making a slow comeback. Face it, technology does not overcome all.

Jon
February 8, 2009 8:06 AM

re: . All those ones-and-zeros in people’s IRAs/SEPs/401(k)s are no longer there waiting to chase goods and services in Reality

Except for people who are aout to retire, money in IRAs/401Ks isn't chasing goods and services right now.

Re: I still think the inflationist forces are going to win out

I don't (at least not over the next several years), for reasons which Oyrro has discussed on other threads. There's a multi-trillion dollar hole in the world economy right now. Before inflation can happen, that hole first has to be filled in. The numbers being bandied aout for simulus, bank-rescue etc. look big, but they're all easily swallowed up by that hole.

Re: I am not making any cash bets against the real rate going to 15 before all is said and done. 17 or 18 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

If you are talking U6 (which includes involuntary part-timers and discouraged workers) this is probably going to be spot on by year's end.

Re: Furthermore, without reducing the tax burden on productive investment

We already did that, back in 2001. One of the results however was the housing bubble. One of the underlying gltches that led to this current debacle is the fact that business activity failed to recover after the 2001 recesson, despite the enormous tax breaks shoveled into the investment sector. Hence Greenspan's keeping the interest rates depressed for far too long, and the flood of money into real estate.

Anonymous
February 8, 2009 9:18 AM

This column reminds me how depressing and pessimistic people of the conservative thinking are. Pity they have no hope and joy and once they read something that fits their thinking fail to read any further.

Thomas R
February 8, 2009 10:28 AM

No, generally speaking conservatives are happier than other kinds of people. Most studies indicate that.

CrunchyCons are different. They're countercultural/malcontent conservatives, not regular conservatives. Regular conservatives are the type to watch Hallmark Movie Channel, believe their priest is a good guy, and think the economy isn't as bad as people say. CrunchyCons are more homeschool your kids, bemoan the sinfulness even amongst the best of us, and prepare for when the new Great Depression leads to ravening gay hordes coming to steal your homechurned butter.

Tongue only slightly in cheek.

Pyrrho
February 8, 2009 11:19 AM

LK,

You're always a compelling read and make many good points. Allow me to briefly try to bring you over to the dark side (deflationist camp).

I don't think banks will create more credit just because Bernanke has massively increased the base money supply. The banks are just going to sit on it. In order to create more credit there has to be a matching increase in debt. Do you really think the private sector is goint to take on trillions more in debt on top of what they already owe? Isn't there massive overcapacity in just about every industry? Are consumers in need of new stuff? Price deflation, which is just now taking hold after the speculative boom in commodities last spring and summer, will continue because distressed sellers are desperately trying to avoid going bankrupt. Downward pressure on wages, which has been going on for decades in the case of most wage earners, will increase as the ranks of the unemployed and underemployed grow. Furthermore, deleveraging on the part of corporations and individuals will reduce demand no matter what else is done.

Remember, most money is credit (private debt). Bernanke's big boost in the base money supply is supposed to be a multiplier for private debt creation. Do you really think it's going to happen?

There it is, in a nutshell. Looks like I ended too early. I still have another 45 minutes to wait before I can knock back a stiff one with lunch. Enjoy the depression.

Margaret Thatcher's Torries
February 8, 2009 12:29 PM

25. The Republican Party. Should be extinct by 2020.

DJPII
February 8, 2009 12:44 PM

You forgot to say that, but for the baby-killer Obama, we would still have all these wonders. The idiot Americans who didn't vote for the real American ticket drive me crazy.

the stupid Chris
February 8, 2009 12:49 PM

LK,

Restoring banking to functionality requires banking to come clean. But the problem is this: because of the complexity of the securitized mortgage market, no-one knows what any of these things are actually worth. This is why credit default swaps were so magical, they guaranteed the value so you didn't have to actually think about it.

Flim, meet flam.

This is what gives the "bad bank" idea some credence. You allow one entity, the bad bank, to purchase these things thus allowing the other banks to write down their losses. The bad bank de-tangles the various tranches, reassembles these mortgages back into something quantifiable and enforceable, and then sells them back into the market.

Here's something else we're about to see: Credit card interest is heading through the roof. The credit card industry is anticipating a huge increase in defaults this year, and so are preemptively increasing their interest rates on standing balances while notifying people who pay off their cards that their accounts are being terminated. This, too, will have a deflationary effect. Who in their right mind is going to purchase anything at 25 or 35% interest?

What's got me most depressed about the stimulus bill is that the "moderates" have, in their effort to be "bipartisan," left common sense at the door. What's needed now are JOBS. ANY JOBS. LOTS OF JOBS. Tax cuts won't create a single job in this environment because there's no demand, those receiving tax cuts will use them to deleverage, or to increase their supply of cash. What they won't do is increase their capacity to produce because there's no demand because there are no JOBS.

To use an analogy: First you get the plane down in one piece, even if you land it in the flippin' Hudson River, then you worry about everything else. The GOP is fretting about the gosh-darned (this is BeliefNet, after all) meal service in first class instead of saving the lives of all on board. The "moderate" position seems to be to worry about the beverage service.

David J. White
February 8, 2009 1:25 PM

By the way, none of my grandparents made their golden. One grandmother died young, and the other grandfather died six months before his. What used to be the enemy of the golden anniversary was death, and in many cases it still is.

Neither set of my grandparents did, either, due to death of one of each set. But my parents made their 50th last year.

polistra
February 8, 2009 1:37 PM

Pyrrho @ 11:19 ... That's a real eye-opener, and a plain fact which nobody else has spoken!

In simple terms, expecting banks to open more credit is totally moot because businesses and individuals understand the problem and therefore want less credit, not more. So no matter what we do, adding capital or ordering banks to lend, the net result will be less debt.

David Sisley
February 8, 2009 1:59 PM
http://www.cdsglobalhighway.com/

I agree with you on all 24 items on your list. I am 67 years old, so I don't know if all of these will have disappeared in my lifetime or not.

Lucas
February 8, 2009 2:06 PM

Interesting Post, Some was news to me...

Milk Men - bet'cha I couldn't find one if I wanted one in my area.
HAM Radio - As a Tech class myself, who doesn't even have a radio plugged in anymore, I can say that the main reason is class of people. I got licensed because I was a geek, liked playing with fast scan TV transmitters but then I found out there aren't very many people to have an intelligent conversation with.

Bees - yeah, scary.

TV Snooze - go figure. I think we are all just about tired of hearing how many people got gunned down in another part of town. Gail Gust, hang it up.

Analog TV - Finally. I just feel bad for all of those people who are having such a hard time understanding what the transition is all about. Maybe if they didn't watch so much tv, they'd know.

JG
February 8, 2009 3:31 PM

I would add that No. 25 would be divided into several forms of entertainment:

-Cassette Tapes. With the rising of the CD's these are becoming a thing of the recent past. Although some retailers like Radio Shack are still selling tape decks, there are mostly an audiophile item.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/media/28cassette.html

-Compact Discs. They just replaced the cassettes tapes and vinyl records not too long ago. They are on the way out. The mighty MP3 file is one of the biggest reasons, while you need a CD to create an MP3 file, it's easier to distribute their contents throughout the Internet. The rising of the music piracy online has contributed in large part to the demise of CD, along there are shops like Amazon and iTunes that make the purchase of music and audiobooks more easier and convenient.

Sales of CD's have been on decline in the past few years at the same time that digital downloads (legally) are on the rise.

It will take a few years more but the CD's days are numbered.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/01/arts/music/01indu.html

-DVD's and Blu-rays. The Blu-ray format while brand new, it might go faster than their predecessor: the DVD. You can blame Netflix, iTunes and Vudu where you can rent or buy high definition movies online, also some TV manufactures are coming out with TV sets that connect directly to the internet so you can watch content online without a set top box.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/technology/05bluray.html?ref=technology

Marian
February 8, 2009 3:37 PM

"you just don't see very many retarded children anymore."

The most prevalent form of retardation is fetal alcohol syndrome, which shows no signs of going away.

Marian
February 8, 2009 4:17 PM

Also:
1. Academic tenure--once this generation of tenured faculty dies off, they will not be replaced.
2. The Reformation tradition
3. Tooth powder (remember?)
4. Lavoris (I asked my dentist about it the other day, and apparently it is just not being marketed any more)
5. Retirement
6. cash (at least any form of it larger than the $20-bill.)
7. pseudonyms
8. Religious orders other than Mother Teresa's, which still has a waiting list
9. Talking psychotherapy
10.Secretaries and receptionists, except at extremely high-end workplaces
11.Employer-paid health insurance

sigaliris
February 8, 2009 5:24 PM

Scanning rapidly through here, I'd say Thomas R wins the thread! ; )

Spam will not go extinct in the near future. Even if the Hawaiians have a sudden spasm of good sense and give it up, supermarkets in the CNMI have whole aisles devoted to Spam alone. And it's wildly popular in Korea, where Spam gift baskets are a coveted item during Chusok.

the stupid Chris
February 8, 2009 5:49 PM

Neither set of my grandparents did, either, due to death of one of each set. But my parents made their 50th last year.

Should have added, my parents didn't make it, either. Mom died just before what would have been their 47th.

Happy to say that the in-laws are far more long-lived, they're past their 60th already.

scikidus
February 8, 2009 7:19 PM
http://scikidus.blogspot.com

I'm seriously saddened by this list and people's comments, especially those pertaining to the economy. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

I'm curious as to see what would be on this list if it had been made, say, 1 years ago, or 50 years ago, and if those things actually disappeared.

Christine W.
February 8, 2009 7:23 PM

How long can humanity last without honey bees??

are YOU going to pollinate?? who's gonna do it??

Bobby
February 8, 2009 11:01 PM

Hey enjoyed the little list. Great points yea. But seriously, how is the family farm disappearing??? Do you think big companies are going to be there when everyone fights over food. The thing that's about to disappear in America, is our currency.

Simpson Snail
February 8, 2009 11:27 PM

I have to agree on #24 Yellow pages. I got one behemoth on my front porch last week. I carried it directly through the house, did not pass go, and into the recycling bin it went.

Dan
February 8, 2009 11:57 PM

Most of these are no big deal to lose. VCRs, answering machines, ham radio, hand-written letters, etc....these are all inferior technologies that are becoming obsolete. Are you bemoaning the loss of slide rules and sextants too?

David
February 9, 2009 1:49 AM

"And that's exactly what happened in
Seattle. The city of Bellingham was sued by Katie Hofstetter who was
paralyzed in a fall at a popular swimming hole in Whatcom Falls Park."

Just a tip, Bellingham is 3.5 hours north of Seattle next to the Canadian border.

Jon
February 9, 2009 6:38 AM

Re: 5. Retirement

Unless we enact some really tough anti-age discrmination laws, peopel will still have to retire, if only involuntaril when they are forced out of their jobs and find no one else will hire them.

Re: 11.Employer-paid health insurance

Only if replaced by some sort of truly conprehensive national health insurance. But I don't see that happening. Obama's putative plan doesn't even come close.

jacob
February 9, 2009 7:16 AM

and "The Republican Party outside the South"

Michael
February 9, 2009 9:32 AM
http://www.artformfunction.com

I have used 3 of the things on that list in the last 10 years. I thought the rest were already gone.

Stuart Buck
February 9, 2009 2:33 PM
http://stuartbuck.blogspot.com

Some of the posts above (e.g., the one where someone praises a slide rule for not needing batteries) reminded me of a few classic spoof ads from Dr. Boli's blog:

Instant Messaging via pigeons: http://drboli.wordpress.com/2009/01/03/advertisement-289/

Get Your News on Paper: http://drboli.wordpress.com/2008/11/07/advertisement-266/

The Latest in Green Technology: http://drboli.wordpress.com/2008/08/22/advertisement-237/

Analog Computers: http://drboli.wordpress.com/2007/11/28/advertisement-131/

Amazing New Digital-Free Cameras: http://drboli.wordpress.com/2007/10/24/advertisement-114/

Zeke Krahlin
February 9, 2009 3:53 PM
http://www.gay-bible.org

Heterosexuals

What with rapid advancement of artificial insemination and growing disgust with overpopulation, unbridled heterosexual breeding will go the way of the dinosaur. In order to hasten the end of excessive reproduction, countries now hateful towards homosexuals will change their tune. Third world countries--'cause most threatened by human overcrowding--will be first to display billboards and promote radio advertisements with slogans like: "Same-sex love: a healthy alternative to overpopulation".

Enk
February 9, 2009 4:44 PM

#16 = Lies.

Ham radio is alive and well, my friends. This figure they give: a decline of 50,000 - someone pulled that number out of their @$$ because they thought it sounded good and it supported their argument, but it is FALSE! There has been a net increase in the number of licenced amateur radio operators over the past 5 years in the U.S. (and abroad). Emergency communications aside, Amateur Radio has been (and still is) an unsung pioneer in wireless technologies, particularly with regard to the design of ever-more efficient antenna systems, data compression and emission types, and over-all pushing the limits and expanding the capabilities of radio-frequency technologies in general.

I know first hand, and for a fact (since I was a founding member of a group that has been instrumental in gaining this status for Ham Radio) that the ability to communicate via Ham Radio is now a REQUIREMENT for Hospitals in the U.S. per the Joint Commission (JCAHO).

FEMA and Homeland Security are also subscribing to and funding volunteer citizen's programs for training and the implementation of Ham Radio networks that will be utilized during disasters.

Don't listen to their lies!

Ham Radio could very well save your butt someday.

Marian
February 9, 2009 5:21 PM

"Re: 11.Employer-paid health insurance"

"Only if replaced by some sort of truly conprehensive national health insurance."

The percentage of employees covered by the employer's health insurance has already shrunk by a huge proportion without the slightest inkling of national health insurance. Why should the last 45% be any different from the first 55%?

Jon
February 9, 2009 7:04 PM

Re: Why should the last 45% be any different from the first 55%?

Because at some point you end up seriously angering a sufficiently large number people (and also costing an important industry, i.e., healthcare, a lot of money in unpaid bills) that the politicians are forced to do something about the mess. Heck, even the insurance industry itself would be seriously hurt if workplace health benefits ceased to exist; that's how they sell most of their policies, and mostly prefer it that way. In fact I think we're pretty much to the breaking point right now, well before the number of people without health insurance gets anywhere near a majority. Moreover even without govermment action the market itself pushes back. Sure you can hire a Walmart greeter without providing health insurance, but try hiring someone at the professional level. Employers aren't providing health insurance because they are altuists; they are doing so in order to attract potential high quality employees. That isn't going to change.

Mpechner
February 9, 2009 7:33 PM

I am a volunteer examiner. Meaning I help to run testing sessions for people to get the ham license.

Where I participate we run session on the first and third Saturday of each month. Each session see an average of 10 new hams. That does not include the other test session in the area during the year.

We do reach out to educate and find people who want to become hams. There will be a significant presence at the 2009 San Mateo Maker Faire May 30&31. We will be there to educate people about ham radio. Show our use of digital technologies including APRS(GPS tracking & messagging), slow and fast scan TV and echolink (VOIP).

Ham radio is alive and well.

Thomas R
February 10, 2009 5:40 AM

"The Republican Party outside the South" jacob

TR: Being born in the South I've been increasingly curious as to when Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, and Alaska became part of the South. This has been indicated so many places I still wonder when it happened I why I wasn't informed. For that matter is Oklahoma now in the South? I mean I can see that one, but I didn't know it was declared as such. Some of my Arkansas relatives might not be happy about it.

TTT
February 10, 2009 10:52 AM

Re: "wild horses" disappearing....

There are currently zero wild horses in the Americas. There have been no wild horses in the Americas for at least 15,000 years, when the Indians exterminated them upon arrival (along with nearly every other large land animal). What we have out west are stray domestic horses--escapees from ranches and, before them, descendents of what the Spaniards introduced in the 16th century. They are no more "wild" than alley cats, and they could be replaced just as quickly and easily. The only true wild horses left on the planet are in Mongolia.

Thomas R
February 10, 2009 12:25 PM

Uhh I made that point on February 6, 2009.

Sandy Phipps
February 12, 2009 1:59 PM

Free markets, religion, personal rights and many freedoms we take for granted. Don't believe me just wait until the socialists continue their drive to the top.

Sandy
February 12, 2009 2:01 PM

Religion, free markets, many other freedoms we now seem to take for granted. Don't believe me, just wait until the socialists drive their programs to the White House.

John B
February 14, 2009 4:48 PM

Wowie, let's hope Sandy is right about religion

YOURWRONGTTT
February 16, 2009 10:38 PM

There are wild horses in North America NG just did an article on them, they are dwindling though.

Yani
February 21, 2009 9:12 PM

I love Milkmen! there should be milk women....

John Griswold
March 3, 2009 1:18 PM

After quite a long decline, the population of ham radio operators has actually been on the increase for the past couple of years. Anecdotally, as a radio contester, I have seen a lot of new callsigns on the air in recent contests. This trend hasn't escaped the notice of other radio folk and contesters in particular, much to our collective delight.

Chuck
March 11, 2009 10:18 PM

Ham Radio isn't disappearing. Articles like this have been saying this for 30 years...or longer. There was a decline in the last 5 years and now the numbers are increasing again at a very fast rate. You need to check your facts. This whole article is poorly written. We were told 12 years ago that books and all print media was disappearing too. Still here....

Robert WA4HRK
March 25, 2009 11:08 AM

Gotta disagree with number 16. HAMS have developed new ways for digital communications and are still exploring the 1296Mhz and VLF spectrums. We've already had natural disasters totally take OUT the Internet and local communities' public service communications that relies on Internet relays to work. HAMS will always be there...

Ramon Jones
March 26, 2009 11:14 AM

teachers should be #25. sattelites teaching broadcasts are replacing teachers everywhere

JoAnn
April 7, 2009 4:50 PM

Surprised you missed this one...

Parish run K-8 Catholic elementary schools.

I think they have largely disappeared from places in the US where Catholics do not represent a majority and are rapidly decreasing even in places where they are.

Mostly this is a side effect of the other disappearing item, the nun.

Katherine Walker
June 8, 2009 4:13 PM

This is depressing and not necessarily inevitable, one would hope. Family farms don't have to disappear. And are those who still write letters supposed to just die? Predictions like these create a very unimaginative vision for our future and who is the authority anyway?
The bees and the ash trees are the only real statistics worth paying attention to -- maybe the whole place will be hit by an asteroid and we will have to revert to dial-up internet. Who knows?

Deb Findley
September 12, 2009 9:06 AM

I think the #1 thing disappearing in this country is 'fear of consequences', not to mention manners. Our teachers are paid almost nothing and have no authority to enforce good behavior. Yet everyone wonders why the prisons are overflowing and being built at breakneck speed? The middle class is being eradicated, soon we will have a slave nation made of ultra-rich, and the slave class.....something to think about.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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