Via Sharon comes this Scientific American magazine report by Lester R. Brown about the prospect that food shortages could cause serious global instability. Excerpt:
For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us heed a warning so dire--and how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos--and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too!For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.
I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy--most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures--forces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible.
Along those lines, things not looking so good for the fertilizer business. This excerpt from a first quarter report of the world's largest fertilizer company should get your attention:
A dangerous game is now unfolding around the world. Fertilizer applications are being reduced at unprecedented levels, with our estimates for North American potash applications falling as much as 30% to 35%, phosphate by 20% to 25% and nitrogen by 5% to 10%.To put this in context, U.S. applications this fertilizer year are expected to be similar in total volume to the 1983 pick year while farmers now need to generate 90% more production than in 1983 and will plant 25 million additional acres of corn, the most fertilizer intensive crop in the U.S. Clearly, nutrient replenishment will suffer.
This level of reduction has never been seen before. No one can state precisely what the impact will be on the world's food supply immediately or over the longer term, but we know with scientific certainty that nutrient under application damages both crop yields and quality.
Farmers in the southern hemisphere reduced their potash applications for the current crop just now being harvested and the timing could not have been worse. Potash is a quality nutrient. It improves the taste and nutritional value of food. It enhances water retention, raises yields and helps plants fight disease and drought.With less than ideal growing conditions this season, those farmers in Argentina and Brazil are now experiencing a substantial decline in yields. We would not be surprised to see farmers in other major producing regions having similar declines this year. After two record world crops in 2007 and 2008, the year 2009 could be a completely different story.
The most valuable part of a farm is the quality of its soil and large amounts of nutrients are mined from the soil with every harvest. Every time farmers grow a crop without replacing the nutrients, it's like borrowing money with no repayment plan, and there is no magical bail out for lost fertility in the soil bank.
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"Rising temperature"? I wish.
Here in Washington state, we are having anything but rising temps. Long winter. Spring still is still very unseasonably cold. I drove out to central Washington today and noticed a lake still frozen that is always thawed out by now. Some years it doesn't even freeze. Here we are, almost May and ice is still over almost all of it! We need more warming; Everybody drive more, please.
Farmers buy fertilizer with money. In the 20's, the average household paid 40% of their income for food, even considering that most people had gardens. They still get the same amount of food now, but they pay 5-10% of their income for it. Of that, most of the money goes to processors and transporters who didn't exist in the '20's. So now, people think that the land and farmers are supposed to provide for free what costs more and more each year to produce.
Screw people. Let 'em all starve and eat each other until they are willing to pay farmers what food is worth.
Lester Brown is quoted because he's Mr. Ecology for a while, but the reality is that any country is only 3 meals from revolution..ANY country. Don't get too enamored with your blind faith in capitalism and 'free' trade. Sometimes, free trade fails and kills people; lots of people. Africa is about as free trade as they come.
The purpose of systems and government is to moderate the vagaries of natural variations. They is not supposed to be corruptly used to exacerbate natural variations in the name of speculation and profit. If you are going to do that, you might as well not have government. People who don't believe in government shouldn't run for office. Those who are incompetent at it shouldn't either. In the meantime, our government employees and systems need some real, useful, specific directions.
Let's start with "Figure out the difference between needs and wants. Then, if something really needs doing, DO IT!"
Michele's right. I have lived near Seattle almost all my life and the last several years have been lots colder than anything I can remember, both winter and summer, and getting worse. Lots of plants that are normally comfortable in this climate died this winter. Please, send some of that rising temperature to us. Where is it, by the way?
"Lemme guess - "peak fertilizer" is as much BS (no pun intended) as "peak oil""
I can't work out whether this comment is sarcasm or cynicism... But make no mistake, Peak Oil IS Peak Fertiliser. None of this surprises me. So why are YOU surprised?
And then, we have this in Orstralia...
www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25390014-2682,00.html
Food bowl on brink of $5bn catastrophe
NIGEL AUSTIN
April 27, 2009 12:01am
THE nation's key food bowl, the Murray Darling Basin, is on the verge of
economic collapse as the value of production this financial year plunges by at
least $5 billion, experts say.
Drought and declining irrigation water have plunged inland Australia's heartland
into crisis with the loss of at least one third of the basin's $15 billion
annual income. Worse is predicted for the coming financial year if the drought
continues.
Wow, I never knew that Food shortages ahead. That's pretty interesting...
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