Breaking this second: the WHO director is on TV now raising the global pandemic level to 5. Says Dr. Margaret Chan:
"All countries should immediately activate their pandemic response plans. ... Certain actions should be undertaken now with increased urgency, and at an accelerated pace."
Getting serious, folks.
Question to you: What is the proper religious response to this crisis? I mean, what if this flu does go pandemic -- what are our obligations to our neighbors? Let's talk about it.
UPDATE: Here's a great site for news, information and commentary about swine flu.
UPDATE.2: "We are very early into this," Dr. Keiji Fukuda just said at the WHO press conference. Simple things you can and should do right now, while you can:
There are simple steps you can take to protect yourself and your family. Like a natural disaster, a pandemic may be a time when you have to stay indoors or plan for a time when stores are closed. These are some ways that can keep you prepared for a pandemic or any natural disaster, such as a flooding or an earthquake.Stock up on supplies, including canned goods, bottled water and paper products. Also get alcohol-based hand cleaner and electrolyte drinks. Don't forget baby and pet foods if needed.
Keep medical and first-aid supplies on hand. This includes a thermometer, your prescription medications and over-the-counter medicines for fever and diarrhea.
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Erin, Lord Karth, Sigaliris,
Good Morning to you all! Yes, so far the indicators are that this is a relatively mild strain.
Sig, you pretty much nailed it. You'd have an A in my class ;o)
Erin, building on what Sig has said, here is the JAMA article that gets us the 36,000 stat:
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/reprint/289/2/179
When epidemiological analyses are performed on a disease, much depends on the disease in question. For reportable diseases such as tuberculosis, or HIV, it's relatively easy to get the numbers. Flu presents more of a challenge. It usually is not fatal in and of itself. Most mortality associated with flu occurs as a result of an underlying condition that was exacerbated by the influenza virus.
In the JAMA article the authors used the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition and 10th Edition. This manual is used to standardize reporting and coding of causes of death for purposes of tracking vital statistics. Conditions commonly triggered by influenza were used. Now, what is not clear to me is how the coding was assigned relative to the death certificate data, as the authors were not clear on this. Did the death certificate say x-condition secondary to influenza?
I've put in a call to one of the authors and hope to have an answer within a day or so. When I hear back, I'll let you know.
In the interim, as I've said before, the best use of these intimations of mortality is to be very present to our loved ones. A great dinner and some fun time together-lots of laughter, is this doctor's prescription for keeping these mental goblins at bay. The joy also boosts the immune system. Tonight, we're taking our youngest out to dinner for her 6th birthday. She wants Chinese food at a great little place by our home. So, it's happy birthday little Regina, a million blessings to my wife for bringing her into the world, and to hell with Swine flu!
(But I'll stay on that call to the author.)
God Bless.
Happy birthday to Regina, and may you all enjoy health and blessings for many happy years!
It's hard to read comments that sound like "don't worry, it's just the very old and very young dying."
The point isn't that we shouldn't worry about something that will kill only the very old and the very young, the point is that if that is really the case, this isn't anything different from every winter in the U.S. We should take precautions to protect such people, but if we don't panic yearly over the flu, unless there's something anomalous about this one, then we shouldn't panic (or even take extraordinary, disruptive measures which cause other kinds of harm) over this one, either.
Gerard, thank you so much! I'll be most interested if you do hear back from the person you called.
After reading your explanation (and Sig's, too) I'm thinking that this is a case of the media being about as good at reporting science as they are at reporting religion; the "36,000" quote gets trotted out with no context, and the takeaway from most such seasonal news stories is: the flu kills a lot of people! Almost as many as car accidents! So you could be next!!! (More panic at 11.)
The way you're explaining it is that flu is often a trigger or contributing cause of death for those whose immune systems aren't really working all that well in the first place, such as infants, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. People in these groups can be at risk from a really bad cold virus, too, from what I understand, but we don't get the "scare statistic" in the news media telling us that colds can be deadly.
None of this is to say that it's not important to do what we can to protect the lives of people whose immune systems may not be up to the task of protecting them, of course, but it does put that "36,000" number in a different light.
Happy birthday to Regina! And thanks again for explaining all of this.
Sig and Erin,
Thanks for the great birthday wishes for Regina. She just saw them and is tickled pink.
Erin,
A severe cold can trigger an underlying condition, but not nearly so bad as the flu can. Influenza is much more virulent, with much greater morbidity and mortality. Your point about the media reporting science the way they do religion is spot on. When I was in grad school, we would collapse laughing at the way science gets reported. The morning science was better than the sports page.
I trust you and Sig are well, as well as your families. Keep smelling the roses!
God Bless.
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