On Iran's Twitter Revolution

Look, I love that the Iranian masses are using technology to thwart their corrupt and wicked regime. But I think we had better not make the old mistake that just because younger Iranians are fed up with their government and are using technology to undermine it, that a better world (or even a better Iran, from the US point of view) is only a tweet or two away. I believe it was philosopher John Gray who reminded us in Cambridge that the French Positivists believed that canals would link the world and bring about a universal civilization and world peace. Today it's the Internet and related technologies. Here's Gray, from an essay on novelist Joseph Conrad:

The core of the belief in progress is that human values and goals converge in parallel with our increasing knowledge. The twentieth century shows the contrary. Human beings use the power of scientific knowledge to assert and defend the values and goals they already have. New technologies can be used to alleviate suffering and enhance freedom. They can, and will, also be used to wage war and strengthen tyranny. Science made possible the technologies that powered the industrial revolution. In the twentieth century, these technologies were used to implement state terror and genocide on an unprecedented scale. Ethics and politics do not advance in line with the growth of knowledge -- not even in the long run.

...The realistic prospect is that the most we can do is stave off disaster, a task that demands stoicism and fortitude, not the utopian imagination.

We would be fools to think that if the brave Iranian crowds on the streets of Tehran today get what they want, that they'll somehow become gosh, just like us Americans. Or that they'll give up their nuclear program, and cease to be a threat to the region, to Israel, or the US interests. I think Obama gets that. I truly am enjoying reading Andrew Sullivan's obsessive coverage of events in Iran, but I think his reading here is far too optimistic:

[T]his is the central event in modern history right now. The forces of democracy have marshalled in Iran for accountability, transparency and fairness. Wherever they marshall, we should stand with them, especially in the blogosphere, where our Iranian brothers and sisters built the foundation for this moment.

Moreover, Iran is at the very heart of the global struggle between the forces of distorted and politicized religious tyranny and the power of real faith and freedom. This struggle was never ours' to impose, however good the intentions. It was always there for the people themselves to grasp. And grasp it they now have - with astounding courage, clarity and calm.

And so at the white-hot center of the global conflict, this astonishing force has emerged to resist escalation, unwind conflict, get past ideology, insist on change, and demand a better future. This is hopeful enough. But the use of technology to achieve this offers a whole new paradigm for world politics.

I hope Andrew's hopes are fulfilled. But I don't think they will be. Even if Moussavi and his forces triumph -- and let me say again, I hope they will -- how much will Iran change in ways that are beneficial to America's interests?